Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

Recommended Posts

27 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

All about timelines, and important to distinguish between corporate and govt bonds.

If we get our big easing cycle, signalled very shortly either this week at Jackson Hole, or next month with another bigger cut, it seems that the recent stock market stabilisation may be ignited, leading to a temporary weakening of the dollar (and a pull back in treasury bonds which are massively overbought right now), gold/miners might start ticking up again, and everything seems it is awesome for now (mainly in the USA). We must remind ourselves that the NBER take between 6 to 12 months until confirming a recession, so we're working with lags and sentiment here. May also be some Q3 rebounds elsewhere to disrupt what seems like a very linear decline.

Now of course the hard data will inevitably catch up with us, and remember it's when things seem fine that we usually get our hard move down. Just seems like everyone is expecting a recession right now, and the contrarian in me suggests it's discussed far too much, too obvious?

FWIW when I think we're close and TLT has pulled back a bit, I'll probably sell GDX/GDXJ and my silver ETF and stick it all in IBTL for a few months, then buy back into those again. Long term, govt bonds including U.S. won't be great, very much a commodity driven cycle ahead.

Agree,there will be a sugar rush rally before the big moves down.Markets will see the CBs ease and think everything is fine,forgetting its 18 months too late.Its amazing the amount of press about rates being zero for 30 years,minus rates is the new normal etc.Its the opposite.We are on the edge of a full on reflation cycle and yet almost everyone is looking the wrong way.Almost everything so far is proceeding as expected.Just need a final smack down sometime next year to fully position for the cycle.Really hope silver does go below $11 for a short period so we can get a 20 bagger+ on it in the next cycle,time will tell.

I should add the reason growth shares are priced so highly is the discount rate due to bond yields.Once that gets pushed out they will fall heavily,thats without any change to their fundamentals.If they worsen 90%+ falls likely in those sort of companies.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 11.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Talking Monkey
27 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

All about timelines, and important to distinguish between corporate and govt bonds.

If we get our big easing cycle, signalled very shortly either this week at Jackson Hole, or next month with another bigger cut, it seems that the recent stock market stabilisation may be ignited, leading to a temporary weakening of the dollar (and a pull back in treasury bonds which are massively overbought right now), gold/miners might start ticking up again, and everything seems it is awesome for now (mainly in the USA). We must remind ourselves that the NBER take between 6 to 12 months until confirming a recession, so we're working with lags and sentiment here. May also be some Q3 rebounds elsewhere to disrupt what seems like a very linear decline.

Now of course the hard data will inevitably catch up with us, and remember it's when things seem fine that we usually get our hard move down. Just seems like everyone is expecting a recession right now, and the contrarian in me suggests it's discussed far too much, too obvious?

FWIW when I think we're close and TLT has pulled back a bit, I'll probably sell GDX/GDXJ and my silver ETF and stick it all in IBTL for a few months, then buy back into those again. Long term, govt bonds including U.S. won't be great, very much a commodity driven cycle ahead.

How much weakening in the dollar could there potentially be I saw DB sees sterling at 1.38 that is a fair bit of weakening

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I quite like Leek. The Green Dragon is a decent Wetherspoons and there's quite a lot of other pubs. It's got an Aldi and the Waitrose has changed into a Lidl which would suit me more. Some walks near water Tittesworth Reservoir & Rudyard Lake. The Roaches and Peak District walks. Buxton isn't far and I think it's OK but M&S have just declared it a shit town.

Edit: I think I should have given Blaze Farm near Wildboarclough a mention, given how many cream teas I've had there!

Some really nice places there, great if you've got a car. Unfortunately I'll be working out of Birmingham so looking at South Staffordshire. Had convinced the misses Stafford was the right place for us, but there's been a real spike in violent and sexual assaults lately, mostly from characters "with no fixed address", latest one was a rape in broad daylight (8:20am sunday) right next to the Tesco Extra, so obviously very concerned for the better half, especially as she doesn't drive. Looks like we'll be praying for a crash in Lichfield.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Talking Monkey
21 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Agree,there will be a sugar rush rally before the big moves down.Markets will see the CBs ease and think everything is fine,forgetting its 18 months too late.Its amazing the amount of press about rates being zero for 30 years,minus rates is the new normal etc.Its the opposite.We are on the edge of a full on reflation cycle and yet almost everyone is looking the wrong way.Almost everything so far is proceeding as expected.Just need a final smack down sometime next year to fully position for the cycle.Really hope silver does go below $11 for a short period so we can get a 20 bagger+ on it in the next cycle,time will tell.

I should add the reason growth shares are priced so highly is the discount rate due to bond yields.Once that gets pushed out they will fall heavily,thats without any change to their fundamentals.If they worsen 90%+ falls likely in those sort of companies.

I reckon that will be the one DB where if it does and we buy a chunk and hold it will be life changing if it 10 or 20 bags.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

How much weakening in the dollar could there potentially be I saw DB sees sterling at 1.38 that is a fair bit of weakening

I can certainly see that towards end of next year, but between now and then, so much potential volatility, especially if the 31st Oct doesn't go ahead and we see another extension. It's impressive how much I've seen the prediction of parity with the dollar, although this would be a very temporary occurrence. Against the Euro, I think we've probably seen the worst of it. Wish I could give you more detail on predictions I've seen written but honestly, one of the hardest FX calls in a very long time for the experts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bricks & Mortar

I've noticed recently, Trump choosing press interviews on the lawn, in front of Marine One,  with the engine running, rotor spinning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bricks & Mortar
2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

FWIW when I think we're close and TLT has pulled back a bit, I'll probably sell GDX/GDXJ and my silver ETF and stick it all in IBTL for a few months, then buy back into those again

Thats exactly what I was thinking. 

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Agree,there will be a sugar rush rally before the big moves down

But then again... will need to watch out on the back end of this.  Make sure you, (and me), get out while the goings good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I remember it well.  Went for 3 family holidays when I was 5, 6 and 7, each time in October - ('79, '80 and '81, to the best of my memory).  Same flat each time, right opposite the kipper shack.  I remember our cortina estate got parked on the plot of a demolished house.   Remember my Dad leaning out the dormer window to fix a pantile on the rented house.  Remember it was easy to drive around.  Kippers were the highlight.  Daytrips to Scarborough, York, Robinhoodsbay, Filey, Hornsea Pottery.  Remember my folks commenting the place needed some renovations like our own wee fishing town in Scotland had already seen, (and I remember plenty derelict ruins back home).  I suppose our family finances must have improved a bit afterward, cos next two holidays were to York and we ate out in a restaurant on a single evening in each of those holidays.
Never been back to Whitby.  Been on googlemap, and suppose January would be the best month to visit now.   Not sure i want to go back at all.  I might just prefer the memory of running all over the abbey ruins and being the only people there.

 

Abd before a certain poster starts complaining about going on about Whitby, Im using the Scabby and Whitby as an example of how life changes.

Go back to the mid 70s and people were still mainly going on holiday in the UK. Scabby was a mass tourism destination, still had factory/ton weekends, which continued til the the mid 80s.

It went wrong over ~15 years - 1975 -> 1990. In that time, factories shut, holidays could be picked and choose, people started flying to Spain and hotters places, where the sun shine and the rain did not fall.

Then the holiday peoplein scabby made the stupidest decision going - they started accepting dossers and house them i nthe old guesthouses. Massive mistake, which turbo charged the fall of the town. Only recently, with the banning of HMO within town, ahs the council reacted., which shows much influence a certain sector still had.

Whitby carried on, getting a much smaller number of visitors. The port was still active til the active, although hte freight it could take in was restricted by the bridge and tides.

Whitbys tourism boost is, i nthe main, the same as Yawks - the flood of people from greater boro travelling down (Whitby ~40m by car, Yawk, ~40m by train). In the main, this is not a good thing - just talk to anyone dealing with them.

This is down to boro being destroyed - mainly by people from boro - and the huge ramp up in public sector which has given  people from boro, with their made up public sector jobs and tax credits and DLA large amounts of cash and free time to piss it up.

I expect Whitby to get less busy as the public spend is reduced.

Again, its worth mentioning this as these time changes have occurred well within the time of a mortgage - 20 years (or 40 these days ...)

What went for  Scabby and tourists also goes for London.South and the FinSec. That money and job has gone. The housing the economy has not adapted yet.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Back to the US...

Why US firms are desperate to retain ageing workers

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49075955

Because they are desperate for staff...

Because the demand is coming back from China....

Because are % are hooked on opiods....

Because the migrants the US has let in over the last 20 years are usless -mo re interested in sky gods,  headscarfes n benefits than working.

The practise of getting rid of older workers came from Us as the company is on hook for healthcare. Take 1980s Joe Carworker - he'll be 55+ 5stone overweight, diabetic, various other expensive chronic stuff from smoking drinking n eating.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

And another...

 

Oh dear.

The problem to fuckup letting academic econmists have control over the economy is .... more academic enomists control over the economy.

Maybe they need to start thinking where to invest?

Maybe set some targets for their investment, you know how many tractors to make, planned grain harvest i nthe steppes sorry france.

Well need a name - planned economy sound good?

The thick as shit CBs are now trying to make up demand.

I await the bulletin fro mthe ECB office -

Parents! Have your children had their extra spoon for EU fibre today? Please the glorious leader and visit the ECB historical theme fair where you can have fun reading 'ECB response to 2008 bond crisis' Wow at the delights of 'ECB response to Greece debt crisis' Fun for all the family with 'Non endogenous growth plans for Iberian peninsular;

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Some really nice places there, great if you've got a car. Unfortunately I'll be working out of Birmingham so looking at South Staffordshire. Had convinced the misses Stafford was the right place for us, but there's been a real spike in violent and sexual assaults lately, mostly from characters "with no fixed address", latest one was a rape in broad daylight (8:20am sunday) right next to the Tesco Extra, so obviously very concerned for the better half, especially as she doesn't drive. Looks like we'll be praying for a crash in Lichfield.

Abbots Bromley’s nice

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Nope.

I hate to break up to you, but Ive not noticed you having a pop.

 

Thank you.  I did complain once about something that was actually very interesting and relevant to me, I was wrong, I publically apologised, and it was accepted.  It made me realise that this great thread is only as good as what we all put into it.  Some of my stuff may be a bit so so but I'm just trying to follow that mantra while being respectful to all.  But I'm no angel.  Again, thanks.

PS: Thinking about it, while this is no survivalist thread, thinking more broadly than just the financials is very relevant.  I lived overseas in many places and thought I saw the writing on the wall when I moved back here (i.e. looking outside in).  The finance stuff we talk about has real world implications.  So I created and am executing a broad plan covering finance and beyond that includes moving somewhere fairly remote, etc. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Harley said:

Thinking about it, while this is no survivalist thread, thinking more broadly than just the financials is very relevant.  I lived overseas in many places and thought I saw the writing on the wall when I moved back here.  The finance stuff we talk about has real world implications.  So I created and am executing a broad plan that includes moving somewhere fairly remote, etc. 

Actually a survivalist thread would be a good shout, i knew someone who lived in Argentina during there 2001 collapse and i have a PDF that someone wrote who lived through it and talked about what he wish he did different 

 

Whilst i dont think the UK would ever get like that no harm in learning from others

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

We are about to see the biggest bond bear market in history.Including inflation people buying long bonds now will likely lose 90% of their buying power.Some people can smell higher rates,but what they are missing is just how high.Should be interesting.

Hi DB

Do you think there's a possibility they could go a lot higher yet? If the FED smells recession and drops rates to zero + massive QE and buying up of long bonds then will this not cause another big leap in bond prices? People are already anticipating this hence the big price jumps so far this year. More to come?

I agree that bonds are toast over the medium to longterm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Durabo said:

That sounds great - can you share the pdf?

This was not from the guy i knew but came across it online after researching Argentina online and what happened, interesting read 

https://www.dropbox.com/s/1m246bmxb9o2y34/Argentinastory.pdf?dl=0

 

As for the guy i knew who lived there he lost a lot money and would only have other currencies like USD and gold and silver after what happened to him, unfortunately we lost contact a few years back

Enjoy

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Whilst i dont think the UK would ever get like that no harm in learning from others

Totally agree so I read around the subject, Argentina being one good case study.  The impact on the supposedly safe and mostly unprepared middle class was huge.  And this in a country with a past where they should have known better.  I'm keeping an open mind on it happening here - seen a few situations where the unbelievable has happened and how people's brains just freeze up.   I looked into such stuff as much as to stretch my mind to cope with less as for the full monty.  Plus, being a bit more independent is very good for the soul.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Actually a survivalist thread would be a good shout, i knew someone who lived in Argentina during there 2001 collapse and i have a PDF that someone wrote who lived through it and talked about what he wish he did different 

 

Whilst i dont think the UK would ever get like that no harm in learning from others

 

 

The SHTF Series from Selco about the Balkan wars is a great (?) read too

Link to comment
Share on other sites

leonardratso

wood getting shot of nuclear;

https://www.ft.com/content/d613be48-c310-11e9-a8e9-296ca66511c9

Wood to offload nuclear business for £250m in debt cutting drive

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...