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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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So I’ve followed this thread from the other site, never really commented as I’ve never had anything to contribute. 

I’ve worked Ford for 25 years.  And I never seen anywhere near the change or intent to change, that we’re going through now.  I’ve recently watched a presentation from our CEO, which I wish I could share with you guys as it talks about the themes so often talked about here, in terms of the end of cycles.  Now this is specifically the automotive industry. But it ties to the change in infrastructure and investment. Two things here.  

image.thumb.png.73a62a8c1113d608c77e6ac94879046a.png

 

Abandonment of passenger vehicles with the move to being a mobility company and electrification.  

“Ford will use Volkswagen’s electric vehicle architecture and Modular Electric Toolkit (MEB) to design and build at least one high-volume fully electric vehicle in Europe for European customers starting in 2023, more efficiently advancing its promise to deliver expressive passenger cars while taking advantage of Volkswagen’s scale”

Ford have abandoned passenger vehicles in the US and with the business agreement with VW and Argo for automation tech I can see a time where they abandon them in the EU as well.  They see a world where passenger car ownership disappears.  Uber or whatever comes after takes the market for the short domestic journey.  Ford interestingly isn’t going after this market – concentrating on the SME / light industry transportation and light trucks.  US focus as outside of metro areas, public transport doesn’t really play a role. But it’s interesting there isn’t any attachment to passenger vehicles here at all.  In the EU, they see uber or public transport for domestic and commuting. Light truck for SME and delivery / mobility services.    

This is all kind of interesting, but what is more relevant to this tread is the electrification and future investment.  Which leads to something I’m starting to hear with respect to the infrastructure for electric vehicles.  Supermarkets.  

So the story is, it’s the supermarkets that will be making a play for investing in the electric vehicle recharging infrastructure.
 
1.    Space.  Large car park spaces, out of town and often close to major transport lines, A roads etc…  
2.    Existing large contracts with energy producers  
3.    Reduced opportunity for mergers and looking to differentiate from the discounters 
4.    Draw in to physical locations to compete with online delivery  - my local Sainsbury has a pharmacy, Argos, spec savers, shoe repair, as well as their own café area and refueling.  
5.    Setup as hubs for distribution from the uber-isation of delivery services.  

I’ve no idea if this is just pure speculation at the moment and I’ve no idea if the tech exists to make this a viable option right now, re speed of recharge.  But I does raise the question.  Electric vehicles are absolutely the direction auto manufactures are going and the current refueling infrastructure needs investment.  Charging from home isn’t going to be the model as owning a passenger vehicle isn’t going to be the model.  So who owns it.  
 

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6 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Net borrowings is Total borrowings minus cash

As per @CVG answer there's been issuance/retirement of stock/debt

Investing.com data differetn to CVG's.

Thanks too.  "Net borrowings" sounds very dull (i.e. of little use)!

I'll check out investing.com (again!) but still - "Financing Cash Flow Items" - any definition of what that covers - a bit meaningless compared to the other lines.

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2 minutes ago, Harley said:

I'm still waiting for an electric quad bike or (dune type) buggy.  Something a bit rugged to get me to the weekly shop and back and then plug into my home made solar charging station.

No particular need for all the trimmings like doors, etc.

Anything out there yet?

Well, there's the Renault Twizy:

article-2243534-12E76EA3000005DC-610_634

The trouble is, the battery is everything, and it scales too well.  So you end up with the Twizy costing €7k with €50 a month battery, where you can get a proper electric car at not that much more (especially when look at from a lease cost pov).

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Just now, dgul said:

Well, there's the Renault Twizy:

article-2243534-12E76EA3000005DC-610_634

The trouble is, the battery is everything, and it scales too well.  So you end up with the Twizy costing €7k with €50 a month battery, where you can get a proper electric car at not that much more (especially when look at from a lease cost pov).

Thanks.  Indeed.  Been there, tried that, seen the price!

A dune buggy, that'll be just great!

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sancho panza

 

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

@Harley and others, a non-nutty discussion on survival is welcome and I think necessary for post 2027 or so. As I've mentioned here beford, I'll be going remote and checking out around that time. Forestry, fishing boat, farm, precious metals, cash, carpentry. I was poor growing up and am very comfortable with such a life. I'll want for nothing. In fact I can't wait, much of modern society disgusts me.

A key thing to do to prepare for such a future is fitness  health and strength. I recommend Mark Rippetoe Starting Strength programme for those who are interested, its significantly improved my quality of life.

We need someone to lead it who has an idea of what they're on about.Otehrwise I'd start one.I'm working towards having the option to head out into the sticks if I so wish,buying a farm and living more off the land.Worked on a farm as a kid but in terms of fishing,farming etc  very keen to learn.

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

I'm not short anything yet. I'd like to be able to wish you good luck with yours but selfishly I'd like the prices to higher in case I step in. I can only wish you a lot of green, eventually.

I had a brilliant year shorting last year,our of 60 bets or .only lost on 5.This year has been differnet,got caned trying to call the turn of the current rally in stocks that were drawing me in like the sirens of old to the rocks.

Really lsot my discipline.

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Very much thanks.  And there I was just passing on a subscription deal thinking they had little to add!

I forgot debt and equity moves.  Maybe I can reconcile the Morningstar figures with their available data and save the sub. 

After all I was once told you should be able to produce a Statement of Source and Application of Funds from a good set of financial statements.

I'm not sure if a subscription to Morningstar would show this data as it maybe you just get 10 years of the existing data rather than 5 years.

@CVG as well,jsut realised the figures I'm using from investing.com are arse about face comapred to stockpedia's ie run from 2018 back to 2015 whereas Stockperdia runs form 2013 to 2018.Doh!.

Maybe worth it for the extra data.

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sancho panza
16 minutes ago, feed said:

So I’ve followed this thread from the other site, never really commented as I’ve never had anything to contribute. 

I’ve worked Ford for 25 years.  And I never seen anywhere near the change or intent to change, that we’re going through now.  I’ve recently watched a presentation from our CEO, which I wish I could share with you guys as it talks about the themes so often talked about here, in terms of the end of cycles.  Now this is specifically the automotive industry. But it ties to the change in infrastructure and investment. Two things here.  

Abandonment of passenger vehicles with the move to being a mobility company and electrification.  

“Ford will use Volkswagen’s electric vehicle architecture and Modular Electric Toolkit (MEB) to design and build at least one high-volume fully electric vehicle in Europe for European customers starting in 2023, more efficiently advancing its promise to deliver expressive passenger cars while taking advantage of Volkswagen’s scale”

Ford have abandoned passenger vehicles in the US and with the business agreement with VW and Argo for automation tech I can see a time where they abandon them in the EU as well.  They see a world where passenger car ownership disappears.  Uber or whatever comes after takes the market for the short domestic journey.  Ford interestingly isn’t going after this market – concentrating on the SME / light industry transportation and light trucks.  US focus as outside of metro areas, public transport doesn’t really play a role. But it’s interesting there isn’t any attachment to passenger vehicles here at all.  In the EU, they see uber or public transport for domestic and commuting. Light truck for SME and delivery / mobility services.    

This is all kind of interesting, but what is more relevant to this tread is the electrification and future investment.  Which leads to something I’m starting to hear with respect to the infrastructure for electric vehicles.  Supermarkets.  

So the story is, it’s the supermarkets that will be making a play for investing in the electric vehicle recharging infrastructure.
 
1.    Space.  Large car park spaces, out of town and often close to major transport lines, A roads etc…  
2.    Existing large contracts with energy producers  
3.    Reduced opportunity for mergers and looking to differentiate from the discounters 
4.    Draw in to physical locations to compete with online delivery  - my local Sainsbury has a pharmacy, Argos, spec savers, shoe repair, as well as their own café area and refueling.  
5.    Setup as hubs for distribution from the uber-isation of delivery services.  

I’ve no idea if this is just pure speculation at the moment and I’ve no idea if the tech exists to make this a viable option right now, re speed of recharge.  But I does raise the question.  Electric vehicles are absolutely the direction auto manufactures are going and the current refueling infrastructure needs investment.  Charging from home isn’t going to be the model as owning a passenger vehicle isn’t going to be the model.  So who owns it.  
 

Fascinating insight.Thank you..Finally a reason to buy Siansbury's lol.Cos it ain';t for selling food at a profit.I can totally see the logic here.

AS cattle prod says, oil&gas will be in our lives as important parts in the energy mix for a decnt stretch of tiem but this move to electric vehicles will change a lot of things.

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Democorruptcy
1 hour ago, Harley said:

Yep, very good catch and something that crossed my mind late last night.  Maybe why I slept poorly!  I researched this once, especially when looking at Singapore so will dust that work down. 

Maybe better to hold outside a tax wrapper to claim an offset on UK tax?  May that work particularly well where the ISA/SIPP annual sub is maxed out?  

Not all of us earn enough to max out the pension allowance plus I may go into drawdown ASAP nerved but comments on another thread about a possible change to the eligible age!

It will depend on everyone's own circumstances and what they plan to do in the future.

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28 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

We need someone to lead it who has an idea of what they're on about.

Will @Cattle Prod take the prodding?

My fear is that I'll be too old should the time come!

We're still working our allotment but a friend came around with some of their produce - I don't care if Aldi's cheaper or the same - the taste was a real eye opener!

No need for a farm (indeed too small and you're screwed), just some land and careful selection of what to grow/rear.  Plus a good co-operative community (hard to find).

My other bookcase:

thumbnail.thumb.jpg.7ad345e4bfa349913b9f6c7c9e16ffa4.jpg

"Out of Your Townie Mind" sets you right and "The (not so!) New Complete Book of Self-Sufficiency" shows you whats possible with what.

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leonardratso
39 minutes ago, dgul said:

Well, there's the Renault Twizy:

article-2243534-12E76EA3000005DC-610_634

The trouble is, the battery is everything, and it scales too well.  So you end up with the Twizy costing €7k with €50 a month battery, where you can get a proper electric car at not that much more (especially when look at from a lease cost pov).

look at that bastard jamie oliver sneaking up behind on his bike to stuff that turkey twizzler into his gob. sorry, he's dyslexic, he thought it said turkey twizzler, not renault twizy.

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30 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Finally a reason to buy Siansbury's lol.

Funny, I was taking a look yesterday (5.67% yield).

Sainsbury, is the worst about to be over, for now?

The monthly....

Sainsbury.thumb.jpg.34918bd6adc721fe8eb2657cfaace145.jpg

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Democorruptcy
38 minutes ago, feed said:

 

So the story is, it’s the supermarkets that will be making a play for investing in the electric vehicle recharging infrastructure.
 
1.    Space.  Large car park spaces, out of town and often close to major transport lines, A roads etc…  
2.    Existing large contracts with energy producers  
3.    Reduced opportunity for mergers and looking to differentiate from the discounters 
4.    Draw in to physical locations to compete with online delivery  - my local Sainsbury has a pharmacy, Argos, spec savers, shoe repair, as well as their own café area and refueling.  
5.    Setup as hubs for distribution from the uber-isation of delivery services.  

I’ve no idea if this is just pure speculation at the moment and I’ve no idea if the tech exists to make this a viable option right now, re speed of recharge.  But I does raise the question.  Electric vehicles are absolutely the direction auto manufactures are going and the current refueling infrastructure needs investment.  Charging from home isn’t going to be the model as owning a passenger vehicle isn’t going to be the model.  So who owns it.  
 

I saw a council selling a public toilet next to a car park, 100 yards from a beach, for £20k. It crossed my mind about buying it for possible future use as a recharging point. Unless they rapidly speed up the charging time, there could be queues all over but while they were on the beach would be OK.

Aren't there any plans to have a lighter accessible power pack? Then people could carry spares and charge at home. 

37 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I had a brilliant year shorting last year,our of 60 bets or .only lost on 5.This year has been differnet,got caned trying to call the turn of the current rally in stocks that were drawing me in like the sirens of old to the rocks.

Really lsot my discipline.

Well done, I said it was doable.

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1 hour ago, feed said:

...

This is all kind of interesting, but what is more relevant to this tread is the electrification and future investment.  Which leads to something I’m starting to hear with respect to the infrastructure for electric vehicles.  Supermarkets.  

So the story is, it’s the supermarkets that will be making a play for investing in the electric vehicle recharging infrastructure.
 
1.    Space.  Large car park spaces, out of town and often close to major transport lines, A roads etc…  
2.    Existing large contracts with energy producers  
3.    Reduced opportunity for mergers and looking to differentiate from the discounters 
4.    Draw in to physical locations to compete with online delivery  - my local Sainsbury has a pharmacy, Argos, spec savers, shoe repair, as well as their own café area and refueling.  
5.    Setup as hubs for distribution from the uber-isation of delivery services.  

I’ve no idea if this is just pure speculation at the moment and I’ve no idea if the tech exists to make this a viable option right now, re speed of recharge.  But I does raise the question.  Electric vehicles are absolutely the direction auto manufactures are going and the current refueling infrastructure needs investment.  Charging from home isn’t going to be the model as owning a passenger vehicle isn’t going to be the model.  So who owns it.  
 

I'm convinced that we'll see a move to Al-air primary batteries, rather than simple rechargables.   . you'll go to a depot ('fuel station') and swap out a smallish battery that'll give 500-1000 miles of range (Al-air has phenomenal charge density, so you'd get a decent range from a 30kg or so battery). The used batteries will be 'charged up' elsewhere, which would involve putting in new aluminium plates.  Each normal car would have two+ batteries, so you'd discharge each to zero before swapping out.  

Anyway, that sort of thing would delight the car manufacturers, as they'd slot right into 'complete service provision' rather than just provision of the metal stuff.  It would also completely decimate all the current fuss about installing car charging facilities on the street, range anxiety, super-fast chargers, etc.

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Democorruptcy
3 minutes ago, dgul said:

I'm convinced that we'll see a move to Al-air primary batteries, rather than simple rechargables.   . you'll go to a depot ('fuel station') and swap out a smallish battery that'll give 500-1000 miles of range (Al-air has phenomenal charge density, so you'd get a decent range from a 30kg or so battery). The used batteries will be 'charged up' elsewhere, which would involve putting in new aluminium plates.  Each normal car would have two+ batteries, so you'd discharge each to zero before swapping out.  

Anyway, that sort of thing would delight the car manufacturers, as they'd slot right into 'complete service provision' rather than just provision of the metal stuff.  It would also completely decimate all the current fuss about installing car charging facilities on the street, range anxiety, super-fast chargers, etc.

That's along the lines of what I was thinking.

Every car manufacturer should make a power pack to a universally standard dimension. No Ford battery and a Toyota battery, etc just one size fits every car. However they can have different amounts of power/miles within that one size. A longer lasting, more miles power pack is just a bit heavier. There's no need for lots of people to have an expensive power pack that does a lot of miles. They only need one to get to work and back (particularly with 40 or 50 year mortgages and retirement at 75). If they want to travel further and say go on holiday, they just hire the same size power pack that has more miles in it.

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sancho panza
32 minutes ago, Harley said:

Funny, I was taking a look yesterday (5.67% yield).

Sainsbury, is the worst about to be over, for now?

The monthly....

Sainsbury.thumb.jpg.34918bd6adc721fe8eb2657cfaace145.jpg

My monthlies say no.We're going lower.

On a structural level,they would benefit from Waitrose ceasing trading either of which is possible given how many  loss leading stores they have.

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2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

@Harley and others, a non-nutty discussion on survival is welcome and I think necessary for post 2027 or so. As I've mentioned here beford, I'll be going remote and checking out around that time. Forestry, fishing boat, farm, precious metals, cash, carpentry. I was poor growing up and am very comfortable with such a life. I'll want for nothing. In fact I can't wait, much of modern society disgusts me.

A key thing to do to prepare for such a future is fitness  health and strength. I recommend Mark Rippetoe Starting Strength programme for those who are interested, its significantly improved my quality of life.

Not sure who originally proposed starting a separate thread idea but I think its an excellent idea - particularly if its content were UK based/oriented (planning to become an expat during a global crises doesn't seem a sensible option, frying pan and fire springs to mind). As you say CP keeping the discussion 'non-nutty' (for content and contributors both!) would be crucial, but this thread proves it can be done.  

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Don't want to de-rail this thread so i will start a new one about economic survival kinda theme, whilst I'm not a expert in this i think it be a nice place to share stories of such things i have a few with Cyprus and Argentina as well as bits i have saved over the years will post a link to it here once started

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On ‎20‎/‎08‎/‎2019 at 05:09, Barnsey said:

FWIW when I think we're close and TLT has pulled back a bit, I'll probably sell GDX/GDXJ and my silver ETF and stick it all in IBTL for a few months, then buy back into those again. Long term, govt bonds including U.S. won't be great, very much a commodity driven cycle ahead.

Barnsey, that's interesting plan, but i'm confused - aren't TLT and IBTL both 20year+ US treasuries? ...Or is there a subtle (but crucial market) difference between them?

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Don Coglione
1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Fascinating insight.Thank you..Finally a reason to buy Siansbury's lol.Cos it ain';t for selling food at a profit.I can totally see the logic here.

AS cattle prod says, oil&gas will be in our lives as important parts in the energy mix for a decnt stretch of tiem but this move to electric vehicles will change a lot of things.

Sainsbury's in Winchester has a few dedicated Tesla recharging bays, other stores may well offer the same. No idea how it works, but the theory of a fast-charge whilst spending half an hour shopping has appeal. On the other hand, how many times a week does the average bod visit the supermarket for half an hour? I suppose if the stores are whoring out their parking spaces beyond shoppers, there could be mileage in the idea (no pun intended).

As an aside, I had the idea nearly 30 years ago of offering hand car washes in supermarket car parks, before I ever saw one. Could have made a killing until Spy's pesky EEers moved in!

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14 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

That's along the lines of what I was thinking.

Every car manufacturer should make a power pack to a universally standard dimension. No Ford battery and a Toyota battery, etc just one size fits every car. However they can have different amounts of power/miles within that one size. A longer lasting, more miles power pack is just a bit heavier. There's no need for lots of people to have an expensive power pack that does a lot of miles. They only need one to get to work and back (particularly with 40 or 50 year mortgages and retirement at 75). If they want to travel further and say go on holiday, they just hire the same size power pack that has more miles in it.

I think the people in general not owning a passenger car at all, exists in the future.  So the question will be how do the service providers recharge.  

The complete service provision by manufacturer, is probably the route preferred by the manufacturer, but there are other orgs that benefit from a refueling/recharging industry. And if it's not complete service provision, then it will be, the uber drivers need somewhere to recharge that’s close to their clients and the delivery drivers need a recharge within/close to a central distribution point.

Now, I’ve no idea really if the supermarkets will pick this up or not and I’m really just sharing some of the speculation I’m hearing.  That there is an opportunity in the service provided whilst the car is charged.  Not the charging itself.  

The best tech solution isn’t always the solution that gets implemented. Nor does the best solution for the consumers. But electric vehicles are a certainty.        
 

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1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

 

 

@CVG as well,jsut realised the figures I'm using from investing.com are arse about face comapred to stockpedia's ie run from 2018 back to 2015 whereas Stockperdia runs form 2013 to 2018.Doh!.

Maybe worth it for the extra data.

You can usually get a free trial so I'd recommend that just to check it out. I love the screening capability and access to 'professional' screens to see how they play.

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sancho panza
6 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

For me, its when I intend to retire the corporate life and shift way down. It's also when my 10 yr fix ends, and it seems to fit well with DBs roadmap and other views and reading I've done on inflationary cycles.

My old man was in New York in the 70s during/at the end of an inflationary cycle. It became a hellhole as it gradually went bankrupt.

A fate that awaits many cities in the UK imho as the pool of willing council tax payers shrinks and the growing demands (in terms of social care,social provisions,council pensions etc etc)  are shifted onto those who remain.

I currently live 200metres outside the city and the council tax is  £300 cheaper.Sadly,more and more people are leaving.Large swathes of the city now now are for student lettings,which obviously depends on a never ending supply of suckers with a £50k loan to sustain them.Those areas will become real holes given the state of repair of a lot of the housing.

Other areas are ghettoes for want of a better phrase.Police go in in two's.I regularly work in Birmingham and I see similar shift away from the city occuring.

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Don Coglione
14 minutes ago, feed said:

I think the people in general not owning a passenger car at all, exists in the future.  So the question will be how do the service providers recharge.  

The complete service provision by manufacturer, is probably the route preferred by the manufacturer, but there are other orgs that benefit from a refueling/recharging industry. And if it's not complete service provision, then it will be, the uber drivers need somewhere to recharge that’s close to their clients and the delivery drivers need a recharge within/close to a central distribution point.

Now, I’ve no idea really if the supermarkets will pick this up or not and I’m really just sharing some of the speculation I’m hearing.  That there is an opportunity in the service provided whilst the car is charged.  Not the charging itself.  

The best tech solution isn’t always the solution that gets implemented. Nor does the best solution for the consumers. But electric vehicles are a certainty.        
 

As I recall, Ford tried this strategy under Jac Nasser in the late 90s/early 00s? That didn't end well...

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leonardratso
21 minutes ago, Ponty Mython said:

Sainsbury's in Winchester has a few dedicated Tesla recharging bays, other stores may well offer the same. No idea how it works, but the theory of a fast-charge whilst spending half an hour shopping has appeal. On the other hand, how many times a week does the average bod visit the supermarket for half an hour? I suppose if the stores are whoring out their parking spaces beyond shoppers, there could be mileage in the idea (no pun intended).

As an aside, I had the idea nearly 30 years ago of offering hand car washes in supermarket car parks, before I ever saw one. Could have made a killing until Spy's pesky EEers moved in!

just offer hand jobs instead.

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