Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[Majorpain]

32 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

shitting hell Major you reckon they're going to implode

Unfortunately we are going to find out, the debt load is already messing with Chinese Banks.  Worldwide debt deflation will force the Chinese hand for sure.

[DurhamBorn]

14 minutes ago, Gordie Lastchance said:

Is this article even more reason to love the likes of Vodafone? 

https://www.hl.co.uk/news/2019/8/21/amazons-cloud-computing-empire-faces-threat-from-edge-of-the-network

Here's a flavour of the article:

Bloomberg claims there's a threat to cloud computing from what it calls the edge of the network. With so many mobile devices and sensors now connected to the internet, people and companies need computing power close to them. Apparently, remote data centers are just too far away.

The upshot is that it's handing a huge opportunity to wireless carriers, which are building fast 5G networks to handle the task.

Telecom analyst Chetan Sharma says, "Over time, cloud will be primarily used for storage and running longer computational models, while most of the processing of data and AI inference will take place at the edge.” He claims the edge-computing market will be worth more than $4 trillion by 2030.

Wireless carriers and the owners of cell towers have a big advantage in this race: They control access to high-speed telecommunications networks and have valuable real estate, such as tens of thousands of cell sites all over the country.

Although cloud computing isn’t going away, there’s more pressure on the industry’s Big Three to team up with wireless carriers, so they’re not left out of the burgeoning edge market. "The big players realise that, at a minimum, they need to partner up with operators to get access to their real-estate property,” Sharma said.

Already, AT&T Inc. — the second-largest U.S. wireless carrier — has joined forces with Microsoft Corp. and IBM Corp.

IBM, meanwhile, is also working with carrier Vodafone Group Plc in Europe.

“The networks are essentially themselves becoming a cloud,” said Steve Canepa, IBM’s global managing director for the telecom industry. “The telcos today have a point of presence at the edge, and that becomes a great place to have an extension of the platform.”

Great find.Like iv said on the telcos,imagine the above when they start to depreciate the assets they already have with prices going up.Their assets are paid for by bond holders mostly borrowing at 2%.The market forgets and is miss-pricing the people who own the network.Hopefully they keep doing it a while yet.Sometime in the next cycle i expect big mergers in telcos,or even by big tech.

[DurhamBorn]

14 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

Sold anglogold Ashanti and harmony today, both more than doubled from when I bought them. )))

 

Lovely),set up a few ladders in some telcos maybe with the profits?.

Meanwhile another sector i want is starting to get close

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/m/mosaic-co-the-usd0.01

@sancho panza has been looking at the sector,maybe give us an update on what looks decent?

[Castlevania]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Lovely),set up a few ladders in some telcos maybe with the profits?.

Meanwhile another sector i want is starting to get close

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/m/mosaic-co-the-usd0.01

@sancho panza has been looking at the sector,maybe give us an update on what looks decent?

Interesting. I hadn’t really considered potash miners although it possibly ties in with my failed attempt at buying into Cresud (South American farmers).

I’ve been mostly using up my speculative money made from the PM stocks heavily buying up gambling companies. They’re very unloved at the moment. They mostly carry a lot of debt which is short to medium term in nature so could well get smashed if the availability of credit tightens, but they generate so much cash...

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

20 hours ago, Errol said:

Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks: Get Ready For A Huge Ride Higher

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/gold-silver-mining-stocks-get-ready-for-a-huge-ride-higher/

Cor Blimey GOLD UP $30 as I post!

Ya could be right Errol!

@DurhamBorn ya havn't sold all ya gold? ...i expect like me and others here ...ya got a block or 2 hidden!

BTW, LOVELY road map...SPOT ON!

my honda jazz passed its MOT today, the mot guy said he coudn't fault it, however they tried to charge me £40!

its always £35 they said cos of INFLATION ha-ha! as they know me, i persuaded them to do it for £35 AND next year they said i'd have to pay 45!  i agreeed but didn't tell them i was moving to the SW!

EDIT: This thread MUST be getting popular, as every time i visit here it has the HOT SIGN flashing!

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, Castlevania said:

Interesting. I hadn’t really considered potash miners although it possibly ties in with my failed attempt at buying into Cresud.

I’ve been mostly using up my speculative money made from the PM stocks heavily buying up gambling companies. They’re very unloved at the moment. They mostly carry a lot of debt which is short to medium term in nature so could well get smashed if the availability of credit tightens, but they generate so much cash...

I bought GVC and Playtech and a small number of William Hill.Playtech have their debt in two bonds now.GVC has too much,but should be able to de-leverage quickly if they can stop themselves doing any more deals.I think the gambling companies are where tobacco was in the early 90s and will end up consolidating around a few big players and then paying massive dividends to share holders.

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Cor Blimey GOLD UP $30 as I post!

Ya could be right Errol!

@DurhamBorn ya havn't sold all ya gold? ...i expect like me and others here ...ya got a block or 2 hidden!

BTW, LOVELY road map...SPOT ON!

my honda jazz passed its MOT, the mot guy said he coudn't fault it, however they tried to charge me £40!

its always £35 they said cos of INFLATION ha-ha! as they know me, i persuaded them to do it for £35 AND next year they said i'd have to pay 45!  i agreeed but didn't tell them i was moving to the SW!

 

I havent sold any gold or silver,i sold a lot of my miners with very large profits.In affect they made me 7 years retirement money in 2 months.

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, Harley said:

Well, well, well......

And now today Stobarts shares suspended, CEO gone, accounts delayed, and:

'The group added: “The board is applying a more prudent approach to revenue recognition, re-assessing the recoverability of certain receivables, as well as considering the appropriateness of certain provisions.”'

I'm getting that familiar end of cycle feeling.

So in plain speak we have allowed one of our customers too much credit and they have done a runner?

[Castlevania]

12 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I bought GVC and Playtech and a small number of William Hill.Playtech have their debt in two bonds now.GVC has too much,but should be able to de-leverage quickly if they can stop themselves doing any more deals.I think the gambling companies are where tobacco was in the early 90s and will end up consolidating around a few big players and then paying massive dividends to share holders.

Yeah. I see a lot of consolidation in the sector. At the same time countries are slowly regulating the market and the big players should do well from that as barriers to entry are created for them by government legislation. The risk is that governments increase taxes on gambling like the Australian government recently did. 

Edit: It wouldn’t surprise me if one of the big Casino groups in the US were to buy one of the big players at current exchange rates.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I havent sold any gold or silver,i sold a lot of my miners with very large profits.In affect they made me 7 years retirement money in 2 months.

VERY NICE!

AND ya deserve, not just cos of the work YOU put it, BUT...

Cos of your GENEROSITY in sharing your knowledge with us folks here, you'll get good karma, anyway... a BIG Thank YOU!

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

VERY NICE!

AND ya deserve, not just cos of the work YOU put it, BUT...

Cos of your GENEROSITY in sharing your knowledge with us folks here, you'll get good karma, anyway... a BIG Thank YOU!

Not all calls go right ,but very happy a lot of people on here made some good money on my rubber band stocks.In a way the gold miner call was easy,getting through this cycle turn is much harder,but the other side looks great.Quadruple the double.

[kibuc]

47 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Not all calls go right ,but very happy a lot of people on here made some good money on my rubber band stocks.In a way the gold miner call was easy,getting through this cycle turn is much harder,but the other side looks great.Quadruple the double.

You need to give yourself more credit. You zigged when every man and his dog kept telling us to zag. Having said that, there's still gold in those miners

[Agent ZigZag]

3 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

I wonder whether we will get a final melt up

That would be nice for my dividends but I consider also a nice melt down.

 

The positions in a melt down I am playing/praying for is 

a) the oil majors BP and Shell. Will buy a significant weighted position

B) If the US sells off big time a would like to add some of the blue chips companies to my portfollio. Good yielders

C) If gold and silver sells off then big long term buy that will be an unhealthy weighting. Fuck it all in

 

My goal is very  narrow and all on red. If it plays off kerching. If not I have some hedge on my properties

[Talking Monkey]

2 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

That would be nice for my dividends but I consider also a nice melt down.

 

The positions in a melt down I am playing/praying for is 

a) the oil majors BP and Shell. Will buy a significant weighted position

B) If the US sells off big time a would like to add some of the blue chips companies to my portfollio. Good yielders

C) If gold and silver sells off then big long term buy that will be an unhealthy weighting. Fuck it all in

 

My goal is very  narrow and all on red. If it plays off kerching. If not I have some hedge on my properties

I'm doing the same, might as well give it a go

[Straingone]

On 10/07/2019 at 15:06, billfunk said:

Nickel is on its way up which means HZM is perking up. 2.15 to buy. Criminally undervalued. This should be sexual to 15p at least.

Thank you for sharing,  Been in since 2.19, I owe you a pint.

[Agent ZigZag]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Lovely),set up a few ladders in some telcos maybe with the profits?.

Meanwhile another sector i want is starting to get close

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/m/mosaic-co-the-usd0.01

@sancho panza has been looking at the sector,maybe give us an update on what looks decent?

My holding in this has been battered of late along with a few other similar potash companies. The contrarian thinker might now enter, as viewing this sector as not a bad time.

[Thorn]

Spent a week or two there thinking the PM complex was going to fall back.

Spent a ridiculous amount of time watching daft and very excitable people - all Yanks - nothing wrong with that- on YouTube, saying gold and silver are going up, mainly. 

So, by now a DB Contrarian, I decided it would all therefore be going down.

But anyway... after a bit of perspective … and a good sit down and look at the weeklies etc, as far as I can see with my very simple Weekly views, every single one of the PM miners is either at Stage 1 or Stage 2 ie the Good Bits.

And the DXY really does look like its starting to roll over a bit...could be wrong obviously...

So...after a bit of fe**ing around selling some and all that hesitant crap I have got myself back in.

So... as far as I am concerned it is once again - Go Eldorado Go.

DYOR etc obviously everybody. 

But Bloody hell if the PM complex is actually more or less all at Stage 2...

[sancho panza]

@DurhamBorn been on nights,not got time to catch up on the basement dweller threads yet,loving thte look of the economic survival one as well as this.

jsut quickly as I have to catch up on my work.Ran through the SOIL ETF for Potash.Will run the Telco's when I get a chance but previously mentioned Sing tel/Telstra/Vod over last year, would still hold with those but will be adding some more for when we buy more Telcos circa 2020/21>personally,see the secotr getting cheaper before it goes up.

Sancho scores run along side chart/profitability/BS/FCF/Sector-all scored out of five for value so out of 25.Score above 17 is on my radar for spray n pray operation.If it's not here then I didn't give it a 17.Anyhting gets a 1 in any section excpet chart gets binned.DYOR natch

We'll be weighting with market cap-Intrepid(last one) is pretty small-I generally only include $1bn + MC's.

https://etfdb.com/etf/SOIL/

Yara 17

Mos 17

Nut 18

IPL 19

ICL 17

SQM 18

K+S 17

IPI 18

 

Decl-we already own a 1% portfolio position in Nut

 

[DoINeedOne]

Was reading money week today and saw this about Germany's shitty infrastructure 

[sancho panza]

Worht noting for me that all the sectors Im running my slide rule are down.SOIL is only down 1% but XLE(big oil ) down 3%.

Could be some bargains soon.Loking to build a really decent size big oil position over next two months.
XLE/XOP/FCG/OIH/XES/REMX/LIT//URA-by importance to me-all decently red.

Big oil/gas with accompanying Sancho scores

Total 18

Statoil 17

RDSB 17

XOM 17

OXY 17

CVX 17

Repsol 18

ENI 18

Lukoil 19

Gazprom 20

Decl-long BP/RDSB/Statoil

[dgul]

Looks like the trade war is heating up:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-23/trump-says-he-s-raising-tariffs-on-china-after-its-retaliation?srnd=premium-europe

Quote

 Tariffs on $250 billion already in effect will rise to 30%
 Remaining $300 billion will be taxed at 15% instead of 10%

 

[DurhamBorn]

6 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Worht noting for me that all the sectors Im running my slide rule are down.SOIL is only down 1% but XLE(big oil ) down 3%.

Could be some bargains soon.Loking to build a really decent size big oil position over next two months.
XLE/XOP/FCG/OIH/XES/REMX/LIT//URA-by importance to me-all decently red.

Big oil/gas with accompanying Sancho scores

Total 18

Statoil 17

RDSB 17

XOM 17

OXY 17

CVX 17

Repsol 18

ENI 18

Lukoil 19

Gazprom 20

Equinor/Statoil and Repsol got my attention there thankyou SP,have to look at best way to buy them?.Repsol looks very very cheap,i guess they produce in Libya and suffered for that.Not sure on that scrip dividend thing from Repsol though,says you can get cash but might prove tricky in a nominee account.

[Castlevania]

32 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Was reading money week today and saw this about Germany's shitty infrastructure 

That’s like a photo taken from the A44. 

It’s not only Germany where the roads are falling to pieces.

[Sugarlips]

16 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

That’s like a photo taken from the A44. 

It’s not only Germany where the roads are falling to pieces.

Yep, its noticeable for those of us who have visited recently having been away a long time, my old local rag are onto it:

https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/17853215.39-failing-infrastructure-39-hurting-trade-across-bournemouth-poole/

[King Penda]

5 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

shitting hell Major you reckon they're going to implode

Yes