Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[leonardratso]

15 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

I could go for the curved ball and use the system against itself by renting mine out to housing benefit and buying another terrace i could pay my mortgage off outright Thursday then stay here till next august take the 22k from the pension and probable 10k saved by then and put 30k down on a 50k house then take a lodger there has well that would enable to to slaughter the mortgage true I'd pay tax but I'd be giving the government some of its own money back with luck that would take a max of two years to buy the second one then sell both and buy a semi morally this would be wrong but it would be funny 

morals? whats those then?

[Bear Hug]

2 hours ago, janch said:

 

If insurance companies providing annuities have much of their funds invested in gilts (which they have to do by law??)then surely they will lose money as the prices of gilts fall and yields rise.  Also the pensions they provide will be worth a lot less to people in real terms than they were expecting because of the inflation which will occur before the pension pays out.

I am not aware of any such law. Last time I looked at a life insurer, they were mainly in corporate bonds. Please note their assets are matched to pension liabilities to some  extent, so when assets drop/increase in price, so will liabilities.

[King Penda]

Just now, leonardratso said:

morals? whats those then?

A disadvantage at times I've not looked into the logistics of doing it I admit my idea might be a bit daft but on paper it works I'd find my own tenant on social easily enough 

[leonardratso]

11 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

A disadvantage at times I've not looked into the logistics of doing it I admit my idea might be a bit daft but on paper it works I'd find my own tenant on social easily enough 

(the zombie of) jeffrey dahmers looking for a place i hear, can bring his own under counter freezer as well.

weekend at stokies.

[CVG]

4 hours ago, janch said:

If rates go up again we can move all our money to the safety of a building society but then where will we get our kicks?

True. However, you can still get kicks by increasing percentage allocation to long term gilts as yields increase (price decreases). Don't need to worry about 85K protection either.

And don't forget that as rates rise you might hit your 1K personal savings allowance quicker than you expect, so get it in an ISA.

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, leonardratso said:

morals? whats those then?

They're what my Father taught me as a child but then changed his mind when I was an adult, and he realised that by `paying his way` with successive governments (of any colour) he was being taken for a fool.

[Bricks & Mortar]

We've been writing the DXY off, predicting it lower.  It doesn't look down n' out today.  Not by a long shot.

 

[Barnsey]

https://www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/business/six-minute-lithium-battery-recharge-for-phones-and-cars-on-way-9080371/

6 minutes to charge your car.

[Thorn]

49 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

We've been writing the DXY off, predicting it lower.  It doesn't look down n' out today.  Not by a long shot.

 

This is it- it’s like the yellow stuff rising is independent of the DXY.

 

[Barnsey]

40 minutes ago, Thorn said:

This is it- it’s like the yellow stuff rising is independent of the DXY.

 

Dollar milkshake is playing out, yuan devaluation heading for the 7.55 level according to Nordea. Methinks Trump is going to get radical.

[Majorpain]

8 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

We've been writing the DXY off, predicting it lower.  It doesn't look down n' out today.  Not by a long shot.

 

Big dollar shortage in the world, what Carney said in his rather amazing (for a central banker...) speech was simply the US is no longer a big enough part of the world economy to be world reserve currency.  The World need more dollars for trade, the US cant supply them in the required quantity as they will set inflation off above their mandate.

Fed doesn't print, world deflates and takes US with it

Fed prints and US gets a massive dose of inflation as those new dollar swill around.

Rock and hard place. 

[Barnsey]

2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Big dollar shortage in the world, what Carney said in his rather amazing (for a central banker...) speech was simply the US is no longer a big enough part of the world economy to be world reserve currency.  The World need more dollars for trade, the US cant supply them in the required quantity as they will set inflation off above their mandate.

Fed doesn't print, world deflates and takes US with it

Fed prints and US gets a massive dose of inflation as those new dollar swill around.

Rock and hard place. 

Been thinking about Carney's comments quite a bit, as have most I'm sure, so I thought it would be a good idea to remind ourselves of the stance of Judy Shelton, nominated by Trump last month to become Fed Board Governor. A strong critic of currency manipulation/low rates and a strong advocate for the Gold Standard. 

https://www.cato.org/cato-journal/springsummer-2018/case-new-international-monetary-system

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/prospective-fed-nominee-shelton-global-economy-in-very-dangerous-situation-like-1930s.html

[Bricks & Mortar]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Been thinking about Carney's comments quite a bit, as have most I'm sure, so I thought it would be a good idea to remind ourselves of the stance of Judy Shelton, nominated by Trump last month to become Fed Board Governor. A strong critic of currency manipulation/low rates and a strong advocate for the Gold Standard. 

From Judy Sheltons twitter, (yes, I think she's one to watch).  Although she's previously advocated the gold standard, she was quick to endorse Carney. 
Nice to be reminded of her comments in the CNBC  piece about the $ getting too strong leading to defaults among debtors in rest of world.  Gives me added confidence US will print to devalue the $ in near future.
 

 

 

Judy Shelton

 

@judyshel

·

Aug 24

 

This is a remarkable proposal coming from someone with Carney’s background and experience. Worth noting....

 

Mark Carney calls for global monetary system to replace the dollar

New approach would alleviate influence of capital outflows, BoE governor says

 

ft.com

[kibuc]

That silver price action 

I hereby order miners to finally fucking catch up. 

[Craig]

2 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

From Judy Sheltons twitter, (yes, I think she's one to watch).  Although she's previously advocated the gold standard, she was quick to endorse Carney. 
Nice to be reminded of her comments in the CNBC  piece about the $ getting too strong leading to defaults among debtors in rest of world.  Gives me added confidence US will print to devalue the $ in near future.
 

 

 

Judy Shelton

 

@judyshel

·

Aug 24

 

This is a remarkable proposal coming from someone with Carney’s background and experience. Worth noting....

 

Mark Carney calls for global monetary system to replace the dollar

New approach would alleviate influence of capital outflows, BoE governor says

 

ft.com

And quite telling that no other bankers, the media or Trump himself have criticised Carney's comments.

Almost as if they were expecting them...

[Durabo]

China talking up stimulus measures after the yuan falls to an 11 year low:

• Help for struggling shopping malls, stadiums and old factory zones
• Renovating the high street
• Allowing shops and resteraunts to stay open longer
• More support for buying eletric vehicles and smart home appliances on credit
• Removing car sale restrictions imposed by some local governments (I assume they are levied in response to smog?)

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/aug/27/trade-war-tensions-us-china-yuan-markets-ftse-business-live?page=with:block-5d6513888f084061ab38d3ee#block-5d6513888f084061ab38d3ee

[BearyBear]

It will be interesting to know what caused that big spike on Silver..? Are the short sellers running for exit..?

[DurhamBorn]

Yamana finally doubled from its bottom today,anyone who bought the stocks i put up as the rubber band list should of made a lot of money ranging from 50% to 100%+

Its going to be interesting to see how the printing to come affects the markets.Likely a run higher to suck people in.I think we are now in the real tricky period to position for the cycle ahead.The good side is people should of made a lot of capital out of the miners,so a few haircuts going forward can be taken.

Iv started to look at food companies where input costs shouldnt hit them as hard as the output increase in prices.

Mowi ASA is one il be buying,one of the biggest farmed salmon producers.

Also Leroy Seafood.

Its a sector that should do very well out of inflation,and also in a currency that should also perform.

[BearyBear]

Dave Hunter is still seeing a big move up for miners and also for semis.

 

[Majorpain]

28 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Dave Hunter is still seeing a big move up for miners and also for semis.

 

I went through the So-Called BBC and Daily mail websites today looking for articles on Gold and Silver.  Found one back in July and that was it.

Its pretty mad that everyone is still looking at the usual stocks whilst even Barrack gold (+60% in 3 months) doesn't get a look in.

I think the long and brutal 2011-2018 bear market has put a lot of people off the sector, their loss is our gain.

[Bobthebuilder]

45 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

I went through the So-Called BBC and Daily mail websites today looking for articles on Gold and Silver.  Found one back in July and that was it.

Its pretty mad that everyone is still looking at the usual stocks whilst even Barrack gold (+60% in 3 months) doesn't get a look in.

I think the long and brutal 2011-2018 bear market has put a lot of people off the sector, their loss is our gain.

the So-Called BBC business pages are a joke these days, never were that good but i used to like the market ticker and the top 5 risers and fallers. Run by a bunch of copy and pasters i think now, rubbish. (its brexit innit).

I like the auto add, nice touch.

[Errol]

48 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

I went through the So-Called BBC and Daily mail websites today looking for articles on Gold and Silver.  Found one back in July and that was it.

Its pretty mad that everyone is still looking at the usual stocks whilst even Barrack gold (+60% in 3 months) doesn't get a look in.

I think the long and brutal 2011-2018 bear market has put a lot of people off the sector, their loss is our gain.

I been telling people to get Barrick for ages. When gold is $5000 Barrick stock will be $150 a share plus.

[DurhamBorn]

32 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Bill Gates considering the energy intensity of steel and concrete too. Got wood? :-)

That SSAB steel looks interesting,have to look deeper at that.

[DurhamBorn]

12 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

the So-Called BBC business pages are a joke these days, never were that good but i used to like the market ticker and the top 5 risers and fallers. Run by a bunch of copy and pasters i think now, rubbish. (its brexit innit).

I like the auto add, nice touch.

When i was 21 the press had great pages on investing in the papers every day,even the Sun etc had city pages.Iv never know less people understand investment.I think a lot id due to benefits.Most families know their tax credits etc will come in whatever and dont think 20 years out.I think in around 5 to 10 years as people get to 45/55 and their tax credits end they will get a shock.I have friends who get £2k+ a month in benefits,havent worked in 10 years,but shes 36 (him 46) and they have around 8 years left.Shel be 44 ,24 years until pension with high mortgage,interest only,no job skills,useless with money,terrible credit history and used to £500 a week free income.They will be down to £130,though they did say shes trying to get down as mental health issues so she can get PIP herself.

[DurhamBorn]

@Cattle Prod how do you see the likes of Enbridge being affected by the US production falling?,are they leveraged to production there,or importing through their pipes?.Also do you see them as winners if Canada needs more pipes?.

Im interested in adding them to my portfolio,but worry a big drop in US production might hit them,though higher imports and Canada might make up for it,any thoughts (or any of the other pipe companies)

Oh and stick your rubber band list up,we love a good list on this thread for us to go off and look at)