Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I don't know much about Enbridge (I know more about operator companies) but it looks exactly the kind of pick and shovel company I'd want. Calgary and Alberta are so under the radar and would be the richest part of North America if it wasn't for fiscal transfers.

I wouldn't worry about a big drop in US production, it will be a long slow decline. My point is that any flattening or decline in US production will break the spell and affect price quickly. And they will be taking Canadian production to make up for it.

Indeed,and it looks to have a small but growing renewable business.I like companies that will get a big boost in profits from the cycle they can invest.The green winners will be the ones who have massive exposure to oil and gas first.Id be quite happy to start buying Enbridge now and think il start.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 11.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Bobthebuilder
1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

When i was 21 the press had great pages on investing in the papers every day,even the Sun etc had city pages.Iv never know less people understand investment.I think a lot id due to benefits.Most families know their tax credits etc will come in whatever and dont think 20 years out.I think in around 5 to 10 years as people get to 45/55 and their tax credits end they will get a shock.I have friends who get £2k+ a month in benefits,havent worked in 10 years,but shes 36 (him 46) and they have around 8 years left.Shel be 44 ,24 years until pension with high mortgage,interest only,no job skills,useless with money,terrible credit history and used to £500 a week free income.They will be down to £130,though they did say shes trying to get down as mental health issues so she can get PIP herself.

Sun City AM, oh yes i remember that along with ultimate heating advertising heating systems on the cheap with a polar bear logo by the sport pages. I have a few friends / family coming into the 45ish age range with bennies running out, seem to be having affairs with the idea of extending with another sprog as far as i can tell. It will end in tears im sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Majorpain said:

I went through the So-Called BBC and Daily mail websites today looking for articles on Gold and Silver.  Found one back in July and that was it.

Its pretty mad that everyone is still looking at the usual stocks whilst even Barrack gold (+60% in 3 months) doesn't get a look in.

I think the long and brutal 2011-2018 bear market has put a lot of people off the sector, their loss is our gain.

I’ve seen Polymetal mentioned a few times, but only in the context of it being the most likely candidate to replace M&S in the next FTSE 100 reshuffle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

leonardratso
6 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I’ve seen Polymetal mentioned a few times, but only in the context of it being the most likely candidate to replace M&S in the next FTSE 100 reshuffle.

POLY,HIK,and MGGT probably promoted

MKS,CNA,& DLG probably demoted.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I have friends who get £2k+ a month in benefits,havent worked in 10 years,but shes 36 (him 46) and they have around 8 years left.Shel be 44 ,24 years until pension with high mortgage,interest only,no job skills,useless with money,terrible credit history and used to £500 a week free income.They will be down to £130,though they did say shes trying to get down as mental health issues so she can get PIP herself

I do wish people wouldn't quote such examples, it does my blood pressure no good you know!...I assume when you say friends you mean someone you know, as I just wouldn't be able to socialize with someone like this without telling them a few stark truths I.e. `I am working my arse off for your "life of Riley"!`

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I have a few friends / family coming into the 45ish age range with bennies running out, seem to be having affairs with the idea of extending with another sprog as far as i can tell. It will end in tears im sure

What a wretched, worthless, and valueless society we have created!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sancho panza

 

On 27/08/2019 at 08:06, Majorpain said:

Big dollar shortage in the world, what Carney said in his rather amazing (for a central banker...) speech was simply the US is no longer a big enough part of the world economy to be world reserve currency.  The World need more dollars for trade, the US cant supply them in the required quantity as they will set inflation off above their mandate.

Fed doesn't print, world deflates and takes US with it

Fed prints and US gets a massive dose of inflation as those new dollar swill around.

Rock and hard place. 

It relates back to that conversation we had one here some time back about why the fed was doing what it was doing and reached the conclusion that it's possibly after one last cycle as the reserve currency,iirc.I think,prima facie,the fed wants the dollar to remain the worlds reserve currency.It's actions follow that.

 

I think you've nailed the Fed quandary as it's looking now.If it wants to remain number 1 reserve currency,it has to print(maybe Carnage's aim).That would align with teh Fed using it's playbook from 08 as I think it will give insanity one last go before it changes tack.

 

16 hours ago, BearyBear said:

It will be interesting to know what caused that big spike on Silver..? Are the short sellers running for exit..?

Gold/Silver ratio massively out of sync.Currently around 90,bottoms at 30................................either gold drops or silver runs if history is a guide.

14 hours ago, Majorpain said:

I went through the So-Called BBC and Daily mail websites today looking for articles on Gold and Silver.  Found one back in July and that was it.

Its pretty mad that everyone is still looking at the usual stocks whilst even Barrack gold (+60% in 3 months) doesn't get a look in.

I think the long and brutal 2011-2018 bear market has put a lot of people off the sector, their loss is our gain.

This bull is just beginning.Long way to go before the fiat currency system resets after the next dislocation nudges the dollar out.

Only real issue for me is do we try and time a June 08-Oct 08 style sale/buy back?????

13 hours ago, Errol said:

I been telling people to get Barrick for ages. When gold is $5000 Barrick stock will be $150 a share plus.

I think Barrick and newmont  will be kciking out some huge divi's in the next few years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

What a wretched, worthless, and valueless society we have created!

Correctly stated...we are NOT to blame for this...

image.jpeg.f0d8659e3c017313e12d57fd0fce5518.jpeg

The above deplorable disgraceful piece of SH*T is the one responsible!

I can't even write his name because he makes my blood BOIL!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sancho panza
15 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I've been trying not to talk about oil, as I am bullish, have biases, may be wrong and would hate to see any of the good people here lose money. I've refrained from naming the rubber band oil stocks I'm in for this reason - and DBs roadmap is much better than mine.

However. I think something interesting happened at G7. 

I mentioned there is no surprise supply in the wings. That's not quite true. There is spare supply in Canada, Iran and Venezuela (and Guyana to come). None of these are "surprise", but they should be considered. 

Venezuela

Huge potential, but even what they had on production has likely been seriously damaged. I doubt it will ever come back as was, and slowly if at all. And Maduro is still there. I don't consider it for my 6-9 month or 5-8 year timeframes.

Canada

I was at the Canadian oilfields about a month ago, and got a fuller appreciation for the potential. Not in open cast oil sands, but in subsuface oil sand production (about 70%) and other conventional. Problem is the Canadian oil patch is landlocked, and the provinces are independent of federal on pipeline matters. It's essentially landlocked. Pipes hold Canada back, and you should hear the rumours about middle east and US interests funding Canadian lobbies! 

Iran

Lacked investment, was just beginning to get it (Total has very good relationships there), and were sanctioned. We know this story, question is how quickly could production come back? Estimates range from 3 days (govt minister) to 3 years. Probably somewhere between, 12-18 months. Other question is how much are they selling despite the sanctions, ship GPS turned off etc. I pass by Vitol on the way to work, they look pretty happy.

So in the last couple of days since G7 we have a) rapprochement with Iran somehow brokered by that tool Macron b) announcement of not one but two major pipeline bottlenecks (trans mountain and keystone xl) being progressed in Canada.

Coincidence? Nah, I don't like coincidences. Trump needs low oil prices for reelection, and he burned Saudi goodwill (they have shut off exports to the US since he did). But why Iran and Canada, if the US has so much??

I've mentioned here before that current oil prices are driven by the perception of unlimited US production, and that the EIA data I track showed the Permian peaking in Q4 this year. For Permian, read US. The whole market is driven by one patch of crap rock, so I watch it closely.

Then I saw this today on oilprice, written by a guy I don't know but looks to have good credentials (18 years in Hess): 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Real-Reason-Why-US-Oil-Production-Has-Peaked.html

I agree with almost all this. Ive been saying it for a while, and this is the first time I've seen it published. He also highlighted the trued up production numbers to May, rather than the monthly guess they put out. It shows US production to be statistically flat (11999 to 12108) since Nov 18. You have heard no one say this in the last 9 months! The Permian has been growing, making up for legacy decline elsewhere in the US.

What happens when Permian legacy decline catches up and flattens Permian production? I extrapolated the latest data with a very conservative rig count decline, and a flat per well productoin rate (will decline, but I don't know when) and it shows Permian peaking in December.

So joining these three things together, an Occams razor interpretation is that the EIA/the US/Trump see that US production has or is about to peak, and so went to G7 and agreed to release Canada from its cage, and bring in Iran from the cold to prevent a horrendous price spike.

Problem is, taps do not turn on quickly in oil. Canada could do another 1.5mbpd, but not till 2021/2022 atvthe earliest. Maybe 1m for Iran in by 2021. If demand falls concurrently in a bust, we get DBs $10 oil and I will fill my boots. But I think we get one more run up in the 6-9 month timeframe. It really smelks like 2007 again to me. 

Once the spell of infinite US supply is broken, its probably worth 10-15 dollars a barrel straight away. There really is no supply risk in the current price.

I will watch Canadian and Iranian developments with interest. But I have long been convinced the story of infinte US production is a chimera. And the data is on the EIA website. Well done, analysts!

Edit

Added some plot snippets. If you zoom the US production data (red box) you see the flattening, clear as day. On the zoom out you also see the shale production as exponential. An astonishing testament to US industry, but exponential functions never last in nature

image001.png

image002.png

I need to check production lag in the Permian to see if this flattening is reflecting the Christmas price bust, but I doubt it created an 8 month flat top. And rig count decline is accelerating

Thanks ever so much for your insight CP.

Whilst I concur,I do so from a position of relative ignorance.

 

As you know,I'm looking for the June 08 moment.I see oil as a buy for a host of reasons to do with currency hedging/speculation.What you've written makes the argument based on a line of thinking that's more fundamentally related to the demand/supply imbalance.Oil&Gas is not going to get replaced by solar overnight.It just makes the case so much more compellingly than I ever could.

We're starting buying into big oil today.Rounded off our gold holdings yesterday and today so that,aside from a huge pullback that allows us to buy PM miners at May 19 prices,we're set to see what happens with no more additions.

Focus moves to Oil&Gas .Here are my Sancho Coma Scale scores(17 and above=buy)/weightings for our looming oil purchases.Big oil isn't in these as we'll be laddering into those stocks individually whereas I'll ladder into these self constructed proxies based on the movement of the ETF's

Ref big oil,we'll be laddering on either price points or mechanically over the next ten weeks,whichever comes first.With a bit of luck we'll catch a bottom.Feel free to pass comment if there's you see.

Obviously,dyor natch.

FCG/XOP/XLE proxy

Company/SCS/Weighting

Pioneer 18 14.3%

Concho 19  11.4%

Continental 17 11.4%

Devon 18 8.5%

Encana 18 8.5%

Parsley  19 8.5%

Enable 18 8.5%

EQT 17 5.7%

Cimarex 5.7%

CNX 19  4.2%

Antero 18 4.2%

SRCI 18 4.2%

HESM 18 4.2%

 

Oil Services

Schlumberger 17 21.2%

BHGE 17 21.2%

Tenaris 20 12.7%

Helmerich 20 12.7%

Core lab 17 6.4%

Patterson 17 6.4%

RPC 21 6.4%

Propetro 18 6.4%

Helix 18 6.4%

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sancho panza
12 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I’ve seen Polymetal mentioned a few times, but only in the context of it being the most likely candidate to replace M&S in the next FTSE 100 reshuffle.

Hey up CV,didn't you mention CDI's a few days back?Do you know where you can see a full list of what's avaialble?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m starting to get to a crossroads about what to do next. I started from a low base (apart from house deposit). I’ve nearly achieved 100% across all the miners and not invested in anything else much apart from starting to trickle very small amounts from wages into reflation divvy payers. I think the miners have some more to run and I’m going to stick a little bit longer but ultimately I need to rebalance. My gains are concentrated in 4 successes and it wouldn’t be the worse thing if PMs ran and I stuck with those whilst building positions from scratch elsewhere, or not the worst if PMs crashed and I took a short term hit as they’re good companies who I want to stick with in some form. Cashing out and sitting whilst they continued to run would be quite bad though. Ideally though I’d cash out and rebalance at a May 19 kind of price. It’s a dilemma we saw coming I suppose but it’s real now.  

Also... if only I’d risked some of the house deposit as things would be sweeter right now and I’d definitely cash out, but I rightly decided not to even try and convince our lass it would be a good idea. Although turns out she is now addicted to watching Aussie Gold Hunters on Quest :D Maybe I’m laddering in the idea...

Dunno what I’m typing all this for really. Just taking stock.

As ever - thanks all 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sancho panza
35 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

I’m starting to get to a crossroads about what to do next. I started from a low base (apart from house deposit). I’ve nearly achieved 100% across all the miners and not invested in anything else much apart from starting to trickle very small amounts from wages into reflation divvy payers. I think the miners have some more to run and I’m going to stick a little bit longer but ultimately I need to rebalance. My gains are concentrated in 4 successes and it wouldn’t be the worse thing if PMs ran and I stuck with those whilst building positions from scratch elsewhere, or not the worst if PMs crashed and I took a short term hit as they’re good companies who I want to stick with in some form. Cashing out and sitting whilst they continued to run would be quite bad though. Ideally though I’d cash out and rebalance at a May 19 kind of price. It’s a dilemma we saw coming I suppose but it’s real now.  

Also... if only I’d risked some of the house deposit as things would be sweeter right now and I’d definitely cash out, but I rightly decided not to even try and convince our lass it would be a good idea. Although turns out she is now addicted to watching Aussie Gold Hunters on Quest :D Maybe I’m laddering in the idea...

Dunno what I’m typing all this for really. Just taking stock.

As ever - thanks all 

Always good to reflect on what's gone wrong ,what's gone right and why?Then consider how to proceed.

Maybe worth considering taking your profit's out and deploying them into something else eg big oils.Effectively leaving the rest in for free.As per the chat,there are some hefty divi's already on offer(could get cheaper if we get a Sept/oct sell off in US), inflation proofing,currency hedging,income producing--big oil has a lot going for it.

Also possibly consider a nibble at the oil services/copper/potash ETF just for some diversification.

dyor natch

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree with @sancho panza ,if people have smaller portfolios,but have made very nice profits out of the miners then id consider taking some profits and investing in other bombed out areas that will do very well going forward.Remember though the path to where they are going is what matters,getting there could be ups and downs.

Oil and potash look good areas.

As has been mentioned above,the next cycle could be the swan song for fiat currency,and that means all of it.Most cycles see swings in currency values so most liquidity flow is across currencies,not asset classes.If my road map is even only slightly right,then that isnt going to happen.ALL currencies are going to de-value against real assets apart from maybe a few select resource heavy ones like Canada,Norway etc.

Its hard to consider this at the moment given where rates are,but the structure of the cycle looks like the best assets will be those the most away from bonds.The worst assets bonds themselves.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sleepwello'nights
20 hours ago, BearyBear said:

It will be interesting to know what caused that big spike on Silver..? Are the short sellers running for exit..?

Its really annoying I've been hesitating on pulling the trigger on SSLN since it was mentioned on here in July. It fluctuated a bit until yesterday when its suddenly surged. Bugger.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Always good to reflect on what's gone wrong ,what's gone right and why?Then consider how to proceed.

Maybe worth considering taking your profit's out and deploying them into something else eg big oils.Effectively leaving the rest in for free.As per the chat,there are some hefty divi's already on offer(could get cheaper if we get a Sept/oct sell off in US), inflation proofing,currency hedging,income producing--big oil has a lot going for it.

Also possibly consider a nibble at the oil services/copper/potash ETF just for some diversification.

dyor natch

Thanks Sancho, that can only be good advice. It’s seeing the gains that I hoped for and reading the chat about where next that got me thinking, also spending my day off listening back to Sunday’s Test Match Special and playing about with a compound interest calculator. I always thought I’d stay in (risky) miners for the long term (along with some UK reflation stocks) as that suited my low base - aim high situation but now I’ve made some progress I feel I should diversify more, and I can now see the kind of safer gains that can still be made when you’re more balanced. Problem being I’ve spent the last year learning about PMs, learning what and who to listen to etc, and I enjoy them. I don’t have enough to spray and pay so need to learn other areas better from scratch. I think I could do that though if it was still commodity based. I have a geography / cartography background so find interest in the prospecting side of things. Keeps it a bit romantic too, drilling/digging for a fortune. I know where I want to put a bit on copper (REG.v :)) so onto a crash course in Oil, Gas and Potash it is then. Should be easier this time as big oil can’t be as wild as the mining industry.

Still going to push my luck on the miners a bit more, mind.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Did anyone else on here buy Alexco Resource Corp when i put it up as one of the best silver miners to buy?.Iv just sold  the whole holding,172% up since last November.I actually only bought half in that one compared to the rest as it was the most risky.Iv still got plenty of silver miners and thats one that could give up the gains in a turn so its gone the journey.More potash i think and start to nibble Repsol and Equinor.

Look at that old dog Eldorado as well xD,i was down 50% on that at one point now up 100%,i didnt average down on it anymore at the bottom as it kept kicking me .I know some of you must of got it close to the bottom as you went in after me on it?.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Noallegiance
58 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I agree with @sancho panza ,if people have smaller portfolios,but have made very nice profits out of the miners then id consider taking some profits and investing in other bombed out areas that will do very well going forward.Remember though the path to where they are going is what matters,getting there could be ups and downs.

Oil and potash look good areas.

As has been mentioned above,the next cycle could be the swan song for fiat currency,and that means all of it.Most cycles see swings in currency values so most liquidity flow is across currencies,not asset classes.If my road map is even only slightly right,then that isnt going to happen.ALL currencies are going to de-value against real assets apart from maybe a few select resource heavy ones like Canada,Norway etc.

Its hard to consider this at the moment given where rates are,but the structure of the cycle looks like the best assets will be those the most away from bonds.The worst assets bonds themselves.

 

Schiff reckons PM stocks are off to the races with this bull just starting. Is he wrong?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Schiff reckons PM stocks are off to the races with this bull just starting. Is he wrong?

No idea,7 years out gold will be over $5000 and silver $200,but we might see a big pull back yet.I wouldnt put anyone off taking a profit,or anyone holding on.A lot depends on the size of portfolio,age,goals etc.PMs arent the only very undervalued asset class.For myself im more than happy with the profits as i was very heavy and im very glad to be able to use that capital in other areas while still having exposure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Tdog said:

Arent you holding onto Eldorado for when issues with permits are resolved?

Yes iv still got half of them,i sold half.They were a classic rubber band stock,everything went wrong,until gold turned,then everything went right.I sold 70% of my gold miners roughly,but kept nearly all my silver miners,though sold a few now.Sold no physical.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Did anyone else on here buy Alexco Resource Corp when i put it up as one of the best silver miners to buy?.Iv just sold  the whole holding,172% up since last November.I actually only bought half in that one compared to the rest as it was the most risky.Iv still got plenty of silver miners and thats one that could give up the gains in a turn so its gone the journey.More potash i think and start to nibble Repsol and Equinor.

Look at that old dog Eldorado as well xD,i was down 50% on that at one point now up 100%,i didnt average down on it anymore at the bottom as it kept kicking me .I know some of you must of got it close to the bottom as you went in after me on it?.

 

I got in at around 2CAD and I'm still holding half of it, but it only manages to cover my losses with Great Panther. Still waiting for that old dog to spring up, they killed all their momentum with $17.5mil placement a month ago and I think it is still putting people off but I shouldn't matter if silver levitates higher. GPR my biggest holding atm while AXU is the only one in the green today :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Did anyone else on here buy Alexco Resource Corp when i put it up as one of the best silver miners to buy?.Iv just sold  the whole holding,172% up since last November.I actually only bought half in that one compared to the rest as it was the most risky.Iv still got plenty of silver miners and thats one that could give up the gains in a turn so its gone the journey.More potash i think and start to nibble Repsol and Equinor.

Look at that old dog Eldorado as well xD,i was down 50% on that at one point now up 100%,i didnt average down on it anymore at the bottom as it kept kicking me .I know some of you must of got it close to the bottom as you went in after me on it?.

 

I’m up 135% on Alexco. Not bad this lark is it xD

That’s one where I don’t mind if I end up holding as I think they’re a decent company and they’ll be going into production soonish but I totally agree it’s one that would give up its gains in a crash. Wish I’d had the spare to get in in December time when it was .90.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, Tdog said:

This is my small holding of gold and silver miners. I see what you are saying as to why the price of gold and silver will crash but as its such a small holding i'm of the opinion i may as well stay on for the ride instead of cashing in and trying to time the market.

As Eldorado has potential with permits, Endeavour is my only silver miner and Sibanye has palladium and platinum ... thinking Yamana profit maybe the best to take and put it in FRES.

My problem is a hum and haw and the price of what im looking at keep going up!

image.png.c00dd68ad0e76eb335a676533dfaa160.png

Fantastic on Sibanye.Id agree if i was going to sell any id sell Yamana,though they do have a nice silver mine and prospects in Argentina.You covered the whole PM complex in that portfolio as well.

Send that portfolio to Woodford,81% up.xD,as @Cattle Prod says dont knock yourself,thats a great portfolio.You spread well,covered the bases for the sector,went against the market,but stayed sensible.Onwards and upwards.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...