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DurhamBorn

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

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This Bloomberg piece reminded me of a Nordic drama that BBC4 put on, "Follow the Money".

I disagree with the NASDAQ opinion on Black Swan, a quick whip round and we will say no more on the matter.

Carbon Credits and spreads on Energy Markets, they sure are going to miss his tax contribution.

 

 

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9 hours ago, macca said:

My car is so crap someone gave it too me for FREE.. :D

I'm waiting for the day when my kids start refusing lifts home from school..

Id rather go on holiday than spend money on stuff.. Although I am a little addicted to old cars and motorbikes but I buy them not working and fix them so I normally make a profit!

A relative called me 'tight' once because I had enough money to buy a brand new car but chose to keep an old one going.

And there have been occasions where I have bought used Audis and BMWs for less money than a work colleague paid for their new ford focus and I got comments of "you must be getting paid too much". These were the same people that were paying £200 to a main stealer for a service on their ford when I could DIY service mine in a couple of hours for around £60.

I'll admit I might appear tight in some ways, but what people miss is that I don't want to be the richest man in the graveyard. It's just about priorities, I would rather forgoe costa coffee and use the money for some great days out with the kids. I'll spend/invest my money, I'm just not interested in showey displays of material objects - round here the classic example being a range rover evoque, I really just don't see the appeal of them but they are very popular.

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2 hours ago, null; said:

A relative called me 'tight' once because I had enough money to buy a brand new car but chose to keep an old one going.

And there have been occasions where I have bought used Audis and BMWs for less money than a work colleague paid for their new ford focus and I got comments of "you must be getting paid too much". These were the same people that were paying £200 to a main stealer for a service on their ford when I could DIY service mine in a couple of hours for around £60.

I'll admit I might appear tight in some ways, but what people miss is that I don't want to be the richest man in the graveyard. It's just about priorities, I would rather forgoe costa coffee and use the money for some great days out with the kids. I'll spend/invest my money, I'm just not interested in showey displays of material objects - round here the classic example being a range rover evoque, I really just don't see the appeal of them but they are very popular.

and apparently very crappy.

Id agree with you, i dont want to be 1 breakdown away from absolute bankruptcy.

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2 hours ago, null; said:

A relative called me 'tight' once because I had enough money to buy a brand new car but chose to keep an old one going.

And there have been occasions where I have bought used Audis and BMWs for less money than a work colleague paid for their new ford focus and I got comments of "you must be getting paid too much". These were the same people that were paying £200 to a main stealer for a service on their ford when I could DIY service mine in a couple of hours for around £60.

I'll admit I might appear tight in some ways, but what people miss is that I don't want to be the richest man in the graveyard. It's just about priorities, I would rather forgoe costa coffee and use the money for some great days out with the kids. I'll spend/invest my money, I'm just not interested in showey displays of material objects - round here the classic example being a range rover evoque, I really just don't see the appeal of them but they are very popular.

One of the most interesting characters i ever worked with retired at 50.He used to get it all the time,questions why he had an old car,but a good job.Why he lived on a council estate etc.He told me he was buying things every day.He was buying a tuesday morning 4 years away in January at 5am when it was pissing down and he wouldnt have to get up.He priced everything on how much longer he would have to work.

Everyone can do as they choose of course.Iv got friends who are on IO mortgages ,hardly any equity,working 21 hours for the tax credits,book £400 xmas lunch at a local hotel etc.Where i have a problem is i know very well in 6 years when the kids are over 18 and they have 17 years until pension age they will blame everyone but themselves.

Tax credits and government deficits have blinded people into a lot of it.The other side of course is a lot really do think their house is their pension.People have lost the link between earning their money through work instead of handed from government or housing equity.

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5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

One of the most interesting characters i ever worked with retired at 50.He used to get it all the time,questions why he had an old car,but a good job.Why he lived on a council estate etc.He told me he was buying things every day.He was buying a tuesday morning 4 years away in January at 5am when it was pissing down and he wouldnt have to get up.He priced everything on how much longer he would have to work.

Everyone can do as they choose of course.Iv got friends who are on IO mortgages ,hardly any equity,working 21 hours for the tax credits,book £400 xmas lunch at a local hotel etc.Where i have a problem is i know very well in 6 years when the kids are over 18 and they have 17 years until pension age they will blame everyone but themselves.

Tax credits and government deficits have blinded people into a lot of it.The other side of course is a lot really do think their house is their pension.People have lost the link between earning their money through work instead of handed from government or housing equity.

Retire at 50 was always my goal. While that's now not going to happen, I'm happy to continue with the work I do now, especially as for me retirement isn't about spending your days doing the gardening, it's about freedom to do as you please with your time and I've always thought that I will always do work of some kind.

Good choices that I made early on are now giving their rewards, being debt free removes a lot of stress and makes life more enjoyable. It gave me the freedom to take a lower paid job with less hours and flexible working which gives me more family time, a real priority for me while the kids are young.

And likewise, each to their own - if some want to be in debt and spend their money on whatever then that's fine. In some ways we benefit from others being that way (there are of course many downsides!), I would rather they are paying extra tax/VAT to the government. Just don't come crying for handouts when it goes wrong - and it will, both go wrong and they will come crying for handouts.

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25 minutes ago, null; said:

Retire at 50 was always my goal. While that's now not going to happen, I'm happy to continue with the work I do now, especially as for me retirement isn't about spending your days doing the gardening, it's about freedom to do as you please with your time and I've always thought that I will always do work of some kind.

Good choices that I made early on are now giving their rewards, being debt free removes a lot of stress and makes life more enjoyable. It gave me the freedom to take a lower paid job with less hours and flexible working which gives me more family time, a real priority for me while the kids are young.

And likewise, each to their own - if some want to be in debt and spend their money on whatever then that's fine. In some ways we benefit from others being that way (there are of course many downsides!), I would rather they are paying extra tax/VAT to the government. Just don't come crying for handouts when it goes wrong - and it will, both go wrong and they will come crying for handouts.

This is the life I envisage. I can't imagine not working or running a business, albeit perhaps part-time. It's in my blood, my parents ran a business whilst we were growing up and they both did 100+ hours a week during their busy summer season. The presbyterian-inspired guilt I feel for just sitting around, reading books and enjoying my hobbies is unreal. I also feel guilt if I'm not in 'cashflow positive' mode, even slightly. If I'm spending my (now fairly considerable) savings, I feel terribly guilty.

We really enjoy travelling, so I'd like to be able to afford a nice holiday at least once a year, whether that's to somewhere further afield or just a European road trip, I'd be happy to work full-time for a few months of the year in order to pay for such, even in semi-retirement.

Edited by azzuri82

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13 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

Absolutely. I'm the same, lots of folk would call me 'pessimistic' but I can do the arithmetic, and think of myself as a realist.

I've found myself in some fairly extreme circumstances (some life-threatening or career / financially ruining), and rather than panic, I'm always amazed at how calm I am when the shit hits the fan, I kind of just follow a bunch of steps that seem like the most logical thing to do under the circumstances. It's probably when I'm most calm, after something's gone terribly wrong.

The anticipation of what's coming has sent my anxiety levels through the roof, but I know when the crash comes I and my family will be better placed than most, and we will have the flexibility to make the decisions we need to in order to survive (and hopefully thrive).

At the moment, just trying to position ourselves so we are as healthy and strong as can be (mentally and physically) for what's to come, both as individuals and as a couple. My missus doesn't really understand any of this stuff, but she does trust me and is kind of just going with the flow and letting me do what I think is best - no pressure then!

Mrs P doesn't much either but like your set up,on financial matters,I generally decide.We rent,much to the bemusement of many of our middle class friends who appear to be genuinely unable to grasp that there is an investment thesis that doesn't involve buying a house and waiting for the appreciation.

We're looking to build a portfolio of assets with cash yields that cover wherever we want to rent and allow us to retire early if we want to..We're already well en route,and I'd much rather that so we can move with work if we need to,than be stuck in an overpriced hosue.I have many middle aged friends who have jsut levered up as they age.I've only got one or two who've stayed put and cleared the mortgage.

First sign of 20% down in hosuing and a lot of people's paper wealth will dissappear I fear.

We grew up in austere circumstances of sorts when I was a kid and that fear of being penniless/skint follows me.

 

13 hours ago, white110 said:

This Bloomberg piece reminded me of a Nordic drama that BBC4 put on, "Follow the Money".

I disagree with the NASDAQ opinion on Black Swan, a quick whip round and we will say no more on the matter.

Carbon Credits and spreads on Energy Markets, they sure are going to miss his tax contribution.

 

 

It's amazing that they allow people to trade on margin like that and then skin the other players for the losses.

53 minutes ago, harp said:

50 seems the ideal age to retire, if you can. That's what was in my mind when in my 30's. I actually retired at 41, well I say retired like it was a choice, it wasn't. I got blown up in Iraq while working for a Private Military Company. The guy next to me died and my two clients in the back of our armoured  Landcruiser were badly injured as was I. After receiving a settlement, I didn't expect that it would bring a whole new set of problems. Keeping hold of it and growing that sum has been a challenge. But I have done so, for now.
No debt and plenty of time to do whatever I want is a great place to be at. Would I turn the clock back? No.

Sorry to hear about your injury harp.

I think the bit in bold is particualrly pertinent.

Edited by sancho panza

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Aye once bitten.

Speaking to middle class friends these days though I feel like an oddball because they just stare and have absolutely no reply when you ask them how does a 20-something earn, rent and save enough these days for a house deposit. And pay their student debt. And move when their landlord wants.

They know all about how house prices are doing in their area. Nice up at the top of their Ponzis.

The young slaves at the bottom of the Ponzi don't come into it.

They will.

 

 

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22 minutes ago, Thorn said:

 

They know all about how house prices are doing in their area. Nice up at the top of their Ponzis.

The young slaves at the bottom of the Ponzi don't come into it.

I tell them that they stand to suffer if they don't consider the young. I live in the SE and state that there will be mass emigration out if the area if things don't change. No high quality teachers for their kids, no doctors, no nurses, noone working in shops. I work in a tech SME and enjoy the area (Kent) and access to London. But if things continue over the next few years I'll bugger off above Watford gap somewhere or abroad. I can't see how younger staff will come in when the company can only offer the ability to pay a landlord's mortgage. 

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43 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Like @sancho panza says being skint is my biggest fear.Iv had cancer,relationship breakups ,redundancy you name it and faced all those down easily,skint is far worse.

I don't believe it!

If being skint was your biggest fear you wouldn't have been working part time for so long and only half considering the job offer you mentioned this week. You would be in all out accumulate mode not quality of life mode.

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45 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I fear a new generation are about to be that bloke,and they might get it even worse as they are so used to getting more.

I'm early 30s and have well-educated mates who are still sharing a house in their 30s. I knew a surgeon who was sharing into his 30s (I think he is now living with his misses). I cant understand why they accept it and aren't angry. I keep on telling them about the monetary policy that the gov and BOE pursue are the issue...but they don't seem to be interested. I really fear that TPTB are pushing to see where people's breaking point is and will push until that's been reached. 

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9 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I don't believe it!

If being skint was your biggest fear you wouldn't have been working part time for so long and only half considering the job offer you mentioned this week. You would be in all out accumulate mode not quality of life mode.

It does colour your thinking. I grew up in financial poverty although most other things in my childhood were really good. All my life I have been frugal/saving and even though I am now relatively well off in comparison I still have to stop myself thinking no I can't justify spending money on that (something I actually need or want.) 

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6 minutes ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

I'm early 30s and have well-educated mates who are still sharing a house in their 30s. I knew a surgeon who was sharing into his 30s (I think he is now living with his misses). I cant understand why they accept it and aren't angry. I keep on telling them about the monetary policy that the gov and BOE pursue are the issue...but they don't seem to be interested. I really fear that TPTB are pushing to see where people's breaking point is and will push until that's been reached. 

It does seem that young adults are more and more infantilized these days and many of us are willing to behave like it. I have friends who are still at home at 35. That's middle-age territory

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Like @sancho panza says being skint is my biggest fear.Iv had cancer,relationship breakups ,redundancy you name it and faced all those down easily,skint is far worse.When i was 12 to 14 id say where i lived in the north suffered an economic depression maybe as bad as the Great Depression.In my town and most northern towns nearly ALL the jobs went as they closed almost all our industry.I can remember seeing a guy leaning against the wall in our back alley.He was one of the toughest blokes i knew.He would put on the floor half a dozen fellas without blinking.Lovely bloke though and always stuck an embassy cigarette behind my ear if i was sat on the back step as they walked home from the factory.This day it was raining and i could hear him crying like a baby.I never went out the gate,he didnt know i was there.He pulled himself together and walked off.The reason he was crying was because he hadnt been able to get any work and couldnt take a wage home to his wife .Seems he used to walk the alleys as if he was walking from work that was now just an empty site.Industry closing broke him and almost everyone else.I used to see him simply walking his dog around the park.One night i saw his wife snogging another bloke behind a tree.She wasnt like that,a lovely woman and they stayed married until he died,but i guess she needed an escape too.That was a lesson il never forget.The government lie to you,the elite will screw you over in a blink.You have to protect yourself as best you can.Question everything you are told.Understand capital.I fear a new generation are about to be that bloke,and they might get it even worse as they are so used to getting more.

+1 as out of reps for today.

Despite being down south where we are all rich and drive range rovers, I grew up in a poor family. Second hand clothes/toys and no food in the fridge were common. I believe those childhood experiences are what gave me the drive to have a better life for myself and my children. It's why I gave up a huge chunk of my life working and studying to further my career.

Unfortuntely, I got there around 10 years too late and felt the rug had been pulled out from under me. I still feel driven, but given the current situation I resent the benefits of my labour going to the government and/or greedy bosses who exploit their staff.

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Being broke / skint is horrible its weird as I was thinking about that today went to the post office to post something which was on a local council estate and sometimes I stop off at the cafe there as I did today I can't help but sit there staring out the window at the betting shop

Every council estate near me seems to have huge betting shops (we know why), now I'm not judging anyone but it's amazing to watch people go in sometimes after coming out of the post office straight into the betting shop and them bloody roulette machines

But then thought when I was broke left home and eating cheese and bread everyday whilst sleeping on sofas or in my car luckily not outside

where was my frame of mind I remember thinking of 101 ways to try make some money then I had lost my car (repossessed)  and then could get to work so lost my job too then everything goes 100 miles per hour getting worse

So whilst sitting there looking at this betting shop I thought they are just looking for a quick fix, quick gains just like when we buy that lottery ticket "what if I win" which normally ends the same way either £1 down or more 

You're always going have people who are shit with money and those that some may consider tight but at the same time it should be easier to get a job and earn a good days pay people just want to get on and enjoy their lives

My dad used to tell me stories about losing a job walking down the road onto another site and getting a new job, but the world we live in today is not like that no more and in my honest opinion it's going get a lot worse for a lot of people and it scares me

Thankfully in a better position today and thanks to this thread I've been diversifying and investing in different things and some would say betting just like those in the betting shop but on crypto

We're all just trying to survive and sometimes it can all become too much

One thing I'm glad of though is the experience of going through being broke I feel it made me stronger and better with money because I never want to go back there

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18 minutes ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

I'm early 30s and have well-educated mates who are still sharing a house in their 30s. I knew a surgeon who was sharing into his 30s (I think he is now living with his misses).

I have a few friends that are doctors and this is fairly common - house sharing, spending all their money on holidays and expensively eating out each week. Could be due to them feeling that they are 'set' for life

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39 minutes ago, null; said:

+1 as out of reps for today.

Despite being down south where we are all rich and drive range rovers, I grew up in a poor family. Second hand clothes/toys and no food in the fridge were common.

That wasnt poor for someone born in the 60s/70s that was normal .. who needed toys when a couple of footballs and a BMX could last best part of an entire childhood.

 

Edited by Banned

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1 minute ago, Banned said:

That wasnt poor for someone born in the 60s/70s that was normal.

 

 

It was certainly common, but those with Dads who held down a regular job did ok and in our street I would say around 80% were doing ok.

Compare that with what is defined as poverty today....

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8 minutes ago, null; said:

It was certainly common, but those with Dads who held down a regular job did ok and in our street I would say around 80% were doing ok.

Compare that with what is defined as poverty today....

Yes the poorest people are often the fattest (and can afford tattoos), 21st century poverty.

My kid has everything material wise, goes to restaurants maybe a couple of times a month, goes on exotic holidays (though she does not have settled accommodation) ... but i'd still rather my relatively skint childhood where we had freedom and didnt need all the shite kids have today.

 My dad did worked in shipyards apart from a couple of years after they shut down in the late 80s, so not claiming to have had a childhood of destitute, but the cupboards being empty was the norm in the days running up to shopping day or if the weekly shop got cut in half.

Edited by Banned

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2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I don't believe it!

If being skint was your biggest fear you wouldn't have been working part time for so long and only half considering the job offer you mentioned this week. You would be in all out accumulate mode not quality of life mode.

I wont ever be skint from here in.Iv enough to last me the rest of my life unless i suffer a huge capital hit.The fear of being skint was from 14 until id made enough to pay for the basics forever.Once id paid my mortgage off and investments  to give me £12k a year from the income minimum i moved to quality of life mode.Im considering moving to accumulate mode for a few more years simply to give me more options,and mostly so my partner can retire soon as well.It also gives me longer to structure my portfolio without any risk of taking anything from it.

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