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DurhamBorn

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

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4 hours ago, MrXxx said:

The point I was making is that you were talking about PAST performance of certain ETF`s and considering them based on this as a FUTURE investment.

Ok, yes, sincerely, always good to be reminded of that trap. It was that the guy had mentioned income and value based equities rather than the growth ones going forward and I had never really looked at value ones before and had assumed them to be poor performers. OK though, as a fund manager, he would say that!

What I did was to look at the ETF performances in terms of overall gain, volatility, etc and found they scored quite well.  But more importantly, I looked at what stocks they held (with a view to buying direct).  I was very happy not to see the FANGS, etc. 

So I thought maybe those ETFs were being almost actively managed (using screens) and adding cheap alpha.  More work but a new area for me than just growth versus income. 

Of course when to buy is another question!

Edited by Harley

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3 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I’m not sure whether we’ll get that Santa rally. The CFO of Huawei has been arrested in Canada and is to be extradited to the US. The markets don’t like it. FTSE 100 now lower than it’s 1999 dotcom peak.

Yeh, go Canada! Volatility is our friend, whether trading or buy cheap to hold.  Like Buffet's tide going out! 

Edited by Harley

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2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Of course everything (almost everything) is going to plan for everyone on this thread.We side stepped most of the loses,and all i want now is a big miner rally.

I’ve been averaging into miners and have had bigger losses percentage wise than my index trackers so far. Maybe I’m just bad at choosing them

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2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

all i want now is a big miner rally.

Well I'm sure after your work here you're on Santa's good boy list but I'll let him know just in case!

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30 minutes ago, Sound Money said:

I’ve been averaging into miners and have had bigger losses percentage wise than my index trackers so far. Maybe I’m just bad at choosing them

Your not alone, my miners are bottomed out at the minute and its a waiting game (like last time) till they head higher again.  Cost of production limits falls from here, gold may go back to $1200 but like last time I don't think it will spend long there.

Meanwhile on the oil front....

 

Edited by Majorpain

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On 25/11/2018 at 21:07, Barnsey said:

Jobs market is red hot, but much of this based on lagging data, I think the initial jobless claims are going to start ticking up. If Powell doesn't squeeze in another hike in January then that could well be it for this cycle. March seems optimistic, and generally history tells us that when the Fed decide to "pause", it means "stop".

November APD private sector payroll numbers actual +179k vs consensus estimate of +195k, Oct revised down to +225k from +227k

Initial jobless claims actual 231k vs 225k estimate

Edited by Barnsey

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10y rates in freefall. Gold catching a bit of a bid. My reading is that markets are clearly thinking the Dec rise might be the last one for a long time.

Then again, we've seen a few headfakes already in the last couple of month, so I'm trying not to get too excited.

In the meantime, WDO release an absolute peach of an update from Eagle River, and we're still to get Kiena drilling results and resource update later this month. With this one I'm fully allowing myself to feel excited and I'm not planning on holding back ;)

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Very pleased with only being down about 1% since thread started... learned a lot so thanks again to all.

Here is a stupid question so apologies - but could somebody advise me- I can’t figure out which date means what for dividends.

Say you hold shares in Centrica. What are the technical names of the dates you need to own them from and until to qualify for that next divi?

*apologies again just really can’t find it anywhere in civilian language!

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1 minute ago, Thorn said:

Very pleased with only being down about 1% since thread started... learned a lot so thanks again to all.

Here is a stupid question so apologies - but could somebody advise me- I can’t figure out which date means what for dividends.

Say you hold shares in Centrica. What are the technical names of the dates you need to own them from and until to qualify for that next divi?

*apologies again just really can’t find it anywhere in civilian language!

Once a company goes ex dividend you dont get the dividend.Royal Mail has gone ex dividend today so before the market opened they were ex dividend,so before the market opened the shares would be in the order book minus the 7.9p dividend or whatever it is.Anyone buying last night would get the dividend,but of course the shares almost always go down the next day the dividend.

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25 minutes ago, Thorn said:

Very pleased with only being down about 1% since thread started... learned a lot so thanks again to all.

Here is a stupid question so apologies - but could somebody advise me- I can’t figure out which date means what for dividends.

Say you hold shares in Centrica. What are the technical names of the dates you need to own them from and until to qualify for that next divi?

*apologies again just really can’t find it anywhere in civilian language!

If you look on HL at a share page eg CNA, then select the Dividend tab then select Full Dividend Breakdown there are details next to each date, e.g. ex-dividend, payment

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/c/centrica-plc-ord-6,1481p/dividends

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18 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

If you look on HL at a share page eg CNA, then select the Dividend tab then select Full Dividend Breakdown there are details next to each date, e.g. ex-dividend, payment

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/c/centrica-plc-ord-6,1481p/dividends

That’s great- been embarrassed to ask for ages because I understand the ex-dividend date alright. But it’s the bit before that I can’t figure out. Whats the title of the Start date before then, the date you have to hold the shares from in order to qualify for the dividend? 

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1 minute ago, Thorn said:

That’s great- been embarrassed to ask for ages because I understand the ex-dividend date alright. But it’s the bit before that I can’t figure out. Whats the title of the Start date before then, the date you have to hold the shares from in order to qualify for the dividend? 

There is no title. The start date is the day before or after the ex-div date. You will then be entitled to the next div payout if you hold those shares up to the ex-div date.

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5 minutes ago, A_P said:

There is no title. The start date is the day before or after the ex-div date. You will then be entitled to the next div payout if you hold those shares up to the ex-div date.

Ahhh. So you can literally just get some the day before , hold for a day or two, til ex-div, sell again, and then receive the next divi even though you don’t own it at that stage?

(sound of a big hard penny trying very hard to drop here)

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Just now, Thorn said:

Ahhh. So you can literally just get some the day before , hold for a day or two, til ex-div, sell again, and then receive the next divi even though you don’t own it at that stage?

(sound of a big hard penny trying very hard to drop here)

Correct. But as DB mentioned once a share goes ex-div the share prices reduces to the value of the dividend. So there is really no benefit trying to get in and out just to get the div.

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It seems the So-Called BBC have been reading this thread:

FTSE 100 closes down 3.5%

The FTSE 100 has finished an extremely rocky day of trading, down 3.5%, or 244 points, at 6,677.74.

Insurance group Prudential ended Thursday as the biggest blue chip faller, down 7% at £13.98, followed by mining giant Antofagasta, off 6.9% at 761.1p and industrial conglomerate Melrose whose shares shed 6.1% to end at 156p.

Only two companies rose on the FTSE 100 - both miners.

Randgold Resources rose 3% to £65.76 while Fresnillo added 1.4% to 785.8p.

 

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1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

And just like that, with no positive news to be seen anywhere, U.S. stocks are bouncing back off their "technical" levels, all is saved! xD

Just curious but anyone know how algo driven the US exchanges are in comparison to other world exchanges?  There doesnt seem to be much research on exactly who is trading, it could be 99% computers swapping between themselves for all we know!

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9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I owned Imperial from when i was at school.The first share i bought was Hanson Trust (who owned Imperial).Imperial paid my house off roughly over the years with divis.I sold it after a couple of decades near its highs (and BAT) and miss the old girl.If i was forced to track one market with monthly pension savings averaging,it would be the FTSE from here.

Id really like the miners to run though Harley while this market continues lower.

 

Interested in your FTSE100/pension statement, why is that?, as its nearing its bottom and so has more scope to climb?

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On 04/12/2018 at 13:44, Bear Hug said:

Royal Mail may get relegated to FTSE250. Any views on the share price following such an event?

 

BT seems to have moved higher on bad pension news.  I did expect the downside to be immaterial compared to their overall pension liabilities but did not expect a move up.

Article here from 2015 that states 51% had left FTSE since previous peak. It lists them all

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/25/ftse-100-companies-1999-2015

It's a quarterly review next one this month. Anything 111th or lower is out. Latest positions by market cap with fixed entry/deletion points:

http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php

On 4th Dec RMG were 124th

 

 

 

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On 06/12/2018 at 02:26, Harley said:

...

And regarding value, I was doing historic reseach on the performance of various broad market ETFs and noticed the (I think) Vanguard value one had done quite well over the years compared to several growth focussed ones.  Indeed, quite a lot better (relatively) than I had expected.  My take away from that was to look at more value focussed ETFs/ITs and this guy has confirmed that.

So many thanks for posting as it comes at just the right time and resonates really well.

 

I invested in the Vanguard VTV based on trying to capture the DOW up-move as forecast by Armstrong.. happy with it so far.

More from the man:

By: Marty Armstrong
Thursday, December 6, 2018
5c09492a94cd151b7cc3f350

We are still in this obsession with interest rates and how people are completely brainwashed with respect to their impact. Wage growth picked up across America and the job market continued to strengthen. The market is still in a position to test the key support. However, keep in mind that should come cyclically in 2019. The obsession with interest rates and that a strong economy is somehow bearish for stocks is really strange logic. When the economy turns down, interest rates fall, but so do stock prices. This is very weird logic to cheer lower interest rates and fear rising rates. In a normal economy that is growing, rates rise BECAUSE the demand for money rises for investment. The whole problem in Europe is that not even negative rates have helped because people see no opportunity for investment so they do not borrow. What we must remain concerned about is crossing that line in the Paradox when rising rates reflects the collapse in confidence. Then rates rise exponentially and capital flees to private assets.

The US economy continues to hold up the entire world and Asia and Europe are declining. In Europe, we see the funds shifting to German bunds against just about everyone else in the EU especially ahead of next week's vote on BREXIT. We still have chaos coming next week with Directional Changes and Panic Cycles in various markets. We warned that December was a crazy month. We even have Merkel stepping down as the head of the CDU.

While the majority of forecasts are calling now for a catastrophic collapse in the stock market, those forecast are clearly being made in isolation. For such an event to take place, there must be the typical flight to quality running into the bond markets. But the doubts rising in that arena continue to warn that if anything, capital is seriously confused and sitting on the edge questioning which direction to jump first.

We elected two Weekly Bearish Reversals in the Dow holding #3 and #4. We are still well above the Monthly Bearish which is possible to test in 2019 to create the ultimate confusion

Keep in mind that we have a Directional Change due in January and key turning points will be February and April. We also see rising volatility in January and May. Political events unfolding in Europe will be CRITICAL. There really is a rising discontent in France against Macron for he is a HUGE disappointment. He continues to support the federalization of Europe but will not come out and directly tell the French people they are too stupid to grasp his grand plans. After Hollande, the discontent in France has spread well beyond the youth. The French are becoming deeply concerned that there is NO HOPE for any politician to actually do anything in their favor.

 

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1 hour ago, MrXxx said:

Interested in your FTSE100/pension statement, why is that?, as its nearing its bottom and so has more scope to climb?

Its mainly because i dont think il be there long,and as soon as i leave it will be moved into my own SIPP.

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1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

Just curious but anyone know how algo driven the US exchanges are in comparison to other world exchanges?  There doesnt seem to be much research on exactly who is trading, it could be 99% computers swapping between themselves for all we know!

I'm weighing up going long some choice US stocks

On 05/12/2018 at 22:03, Bricks & Mortar said:

I am still in the game - but not as connected as I used to be.   I quit working for larger building firms after I worked out a job in the sector is only as good as the next recession.  So, I run a small business now.  Mostly repairs and maintenance - essential stuff like roofs.  And we're in a rural area - quite far from the cities.  My main thinking was proofing against recession.   So far, it's not been as lucrative - but I reckon it's about to have its day in the sun.

Day rates have been going up.  There seems to be a labour shortage.   Noted a Polish construction boss complaining of 10% year-on-year increase in labour rates in his country.  Imagine that, coupled with the exchange rate, and brexit fears, have been tempting Polish workers home.

Plenty of work in my local repair & maintenance sector.  More than we can handle, and same story from other builders I meet at the merchants, or sandwich truck.- So, I suppose I'm not seeing a downturn.  Not that I'd expect to.  Not until 3 months after it appeared on the 6 o'clock news.  (I expect our geographical area to also lag behind any recession)

Have noticed the merchants, the national ones, are all getting tighter with their invoicing.  They're on the phone immediately if their invoice isn't paid, threatening to cut supply or get legal.  They used to leave that until the next month (for wee businesses like us, with accounts in the hundreds, rather than millions).

Thanks for the reply B&M,can you be more specific on which national on es you're referencing?

Personally,I think those who run small local buinesses will do just fine.People like my Mum and her pals use the same people for decades as longas they're honest and reasonable.Those guys with those sort of clients don't see recessions.

 

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2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Just curious but anyone know how algo driven the US exchanges are in comparison to other world exchanges?  There doesnt seem to be much research on exactly who is trading, it could be 99% computers swapping between themselves for all we know!

I suspect it's still chunky although reduced from peak.Worth noting that iirc the big broker dealers in London don't pay stamp between themselves.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/091615/world-high-frequency-algorithmic-trading.asp

Bloomberg reports that while in 2010, HFT "accounted for more than 60% of all U.S. equity volume,” that proved to be a high-water mark. By 2013, that percentage had fallen to roughly 50%. Bloomberg further noted that where in 2009, "high-frequency traders moved about 3.25 billion shares a day. In 2012, it was 1.6 billion a day” and “average profits have fallen from about a tenth of a penny per share to a twentieth of a penny.”

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