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DurhamBorn

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

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35 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

Stokie, I think the issue is that people have lost their sense of shame/self respect...don't get me wrong, I too hunt out the bargain section on a regular basis; I even find I begrudge paying full price now, but when it becomes a greedy scrum I just walk away...or satisfy myself by dropping the odd `Finest` item in their greedy trollies whilst they are busy with their snouts in the trough.

your probably right,i see it all over the place from people on tv giveing a sob story before they sing for cowell to plastered all over facebook.

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1 hour ago, Dim Ray said:

Who is she? Doesn't look attractive to me

She's the one that's managed the trick of halving the wealthiest man in the world's money (and presumably then halving it again).

She's one of those types where you have to ask 'so, what first attracted you to short, bald, multi-billionaire Jeff Bazos?'

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12 hours ago, stokiescum said:

makes me wonder if its greed or if people realy are that poor they will fight to save a few quid.ive noticed a lot of begging they call it gifting requests on facebook selling sites recently.far more than normal.

I tend to think its a greed and/or fomo. As a yellow sticker buyer in waitrose and occasionally M and S i see it all. Personally I only take one or two of each offer and let others get some. The boomers in Marks on a sunday are the worst and spend all day in there. I know because over a few weeks I've gone in at varying times to try and work out the sticker time and the same old ladies are there all day standing with their trollies waiting. They don't just take few of an item they take as much as they can quickly grab. They are like a pack of wild animals, it really is a site to behold.

As waitrose is a two minute walk for me I go everyday and get what i need for a day or two depending on whats on offer. Thankfully I don't have to wrestle with any crowds and it's quite easy to get some good reductions. However I do see lots of greed where a single person will take everything. Only the other day all the mince was heavily reduced so  naturally I took a packet. One lady right after me took the remaining lot, probably 30 bags. I see the same lady in there most days getting her coffee so it's not like she won't get more  deals the next day. Very bizarre and a bit sad to see too. You just know in times of serious need or if there issues getting food to the public it would be every man for themselves andwouldn't take much before someone was bashing you over the head for a slice of bread.

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Loads of pm miners look ready to turn upwards now and follow Eg Wesdome.

If Gold next punches up through 1300 now I reckon it’s game on for most of them for a good run up. 

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3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Our Tesco is great,lots of reductions on good quality stuff and very little competition for it.Mondays or Tuesdays when its raining are best.We are starting to get more incomers though,my daughter has just got a couple of new ones to visit ( MH nurse) as they have come in and are already on the sex offenders list.Been here two years and free house,sickness benefit PIP etc £20k+ a year and the skills they brought are touching up 13 year olds.Its insanity.We have the worst politicians probably in history at the moment.Pretty much everyone i know isnt far away from hanging them off lamposts stage.I dont think they understand how close we are to a massive revolt.If recession hits while they stitch up the people over brexit that might be enough.

I think people are going to have to be very careful what they post on the internet/social media etc., if/when Brexit is scrapped. TPTB will clamp down very quickly on anyone they can make an example of, as inciting this that and the other, to try stop any momentum building.

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3 hours ago, A_P said:

I tend to think its a greed and/or fomo. As a yellow sticker buyer in waitrose and occasionally M and S i see it all. Personally I only take one or two of each offer and let others get some. The boomers in Marks on a sunday are the worst and spend all day in there. I know because over a few weeks I've gone in at varying times to try and work out the sticker time and the same old ladies are there all day standing with their trollies waiting. They don't just take few of an item they take as much as they can quickly grab. They are like a pack of wild animals, it really is a site to behold.

As waitrose is a two minute walk for me I go everyday and get what i need for a day or two depending on whats on offer. Thankfully I don't have to wrestle with any crowds and it's quite easy to get some good reductions. However I do see lots of greed where a single person will take everything. Only the other day all the mince was heavily reduced so  naturally I took a packet. One lady right after me took the remaining lot, probably 30 bags. I see the same lady in there most days getting her coffee so it's not like she won't get more  deals the next day. Very bizarre and a bit sad to see too. You just know in times of serious need or if there issues getting food to the public it would be every man for themselves andwouldn't take much before someone was bashing you over the head for a slice of bread.

One bonus where I live is that the boomers moved out to greener pastures long ago. Reductions are pretty mean however, Co-op usually 10-20% (although occasionally half price) Lidl slim pickings. The most I seem to get in Iceland at 50% off, mostly bacon, gammon, sausages and chops at half price, which due to the demographic is not really sort after in my area. 10% further off that too in January with the Iceland card, and a further 10% off using Love2Shop vouchers to pay, so been making use of it recently.

Edited by Sideysid

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36 minutes ago, Shatner's Bassoon said:

Can any of our readers beat this yellow sticker porn? 

 

A staff deal or someone doing them a big favor? That one seems a bit fishy. One of my best deals for something that is rarely on offer was a cote de beouf from circa 20 down to 5. But my store wouldn't need to price get a decent steak like that to sell.  I've seen a few times staff checking out with manually written yellow sticker eg eggs for 10p. Occasionally find staff hide things in the store and have picked up a few things similarly priced.

27 minutes ago, Sideysid said:

One bonus where I live is that the boomers moved out to greener pastures long ago. Reductions are pretty mean however, Co-op usually 10-20% (although occasionally half price) Lidl slim pickings. The most I seem to get in Iceland at 50% off, mostly bacon, gammon, sausages and chops at half price, which due to the demographic is not really sort after in my area. 10% further off that too in January with the Iceland card, and a further 10% off using Love2Shop vouchers to pay, so been making use of it recently.

I think it really depends on your town and what stores you have. I've never seen much on offer in Iceland or Sainsburys but rarely in them. When I move from here there won't be a waitrose and think my choices will be Tesco or Asda. I certainly won't be making an effort to go out my way to fight over yellow reductions. Ill look to make savings elsewhere.

Edited by A_P

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3 hours ago, Shatner's Bassoon said:

Can any of our readers beat this yellow sticker porn? 

 

Two Brass Eye references in one post? Nice. 

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12 hours ago, A_P said:

I tend to think its a greed and/or fomo. As a yellow sticker buyer in waitrose and occasionally M and S i see it all. Personally I only take one or two of each offer and let others get some. The boomers in Marks on a sunday are the worst and spend all day in there. I know because over a few weeks I've gone in at varying times to try and work out the sticker time and the same old ladies are there all day standing with their trollies waiting. They don't just take few of an item they take as much as they can quickly grab. They are like a pack of wild animals, it really is a site to behold.

I suppose that’s what happens when you’ve failed to save and all of your “wealth” is in the bricks and mortar that puts a roof over your head. It’s not like you can take one of those bricks into your local supermarket to pay your shopping bill... 🤷🏻‍♂️

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16 minutes ago, Solzhenitsyn said:

I suppose that’s what happens when you’ve failed to save and all of your “wealth” is in the bricks and mortar that puts a roof over your head. It’s not like you can take one of those bricks into your local supermarket to pay your shopping bill... 🤷🏻‍♂️

the problem is no goverments thus far managed to raid a few bricks from your house,it has your pension and your wages and how long youve got to work before you can retire,but not your house.the only exception i can see is care costs thus far.

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13 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

the problem is no goverments thus far managed to raid a few bricks from your house,it has your pension and your wages and how long youve got to work before you can retire,but not your house.the only exception i can see is care costs thus far.

Thats very true,but council tax is getting to crazy level.Iv got care costs sorted out for my family.I sent my daughter to uni to be a nurse and my partner is a nurse/community care worker.If my dad gets to that stage we are shipping him in here to my back bedroom and she is packing in work.My dad will simply divert his pensions to her apart from some gambling money and whiskey .My partner would do the same for me,or my daughter would,as again once/if i get to that stage il divert my money to my daughter and then when i peg she can retire anyway.

 

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2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thats very true,but council tax is getting to crazy level.Iv got care costs sorted out for my family.I sent my daughter to uni to be a nurse and my partner is a nurse/community care worker.If my dad gets to that stage we are shipping him in here to my back bedroom and she is packing in work.My dad will simply divert his pensions to her apart from some gambling money and whiskey .My partner would do the same for me,or my daughter would,as again once/if i get to that stage il divert my money to my daughter and then when i peg she can retire anyway.

 

its about flexability i think,being able to adapt and take advantage of the system legaly but the key to that is massive saveings or low debt.take me the x is at my house her house lies empty she is exchanging in 3 weeks.due to domestic violence he basicly drove her nuts she got sectioned.she has had her pip assesment back.

basicly any time within the next 18 months i can be her carer,ok its only 280 a month but reduced council tax i have a lodger he brings in 220 and i would be allowed to earn 120 a week thats basicly 1 shift at work.now id pay no tax and get 1k a month for what is pretty much early retirment.now you say what happens in 18 months the odds are certain she goes to her doctors with anxiety etc and is given another 18 months.the ability to even concider this option is low debt if you have saveings over 6k they wont let you do it.but you need your debt low enough that it becomes an option.if i was renting it becomes even more profatable has your rents paid.so theres my plan b if work pisses me off or my mum requires help id simply do the above and deprive the state of her care fees 

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On 12/01/2019 at 03:58, harp said:

OMG ! ...I could NOT believe my eyes when I clicked that link !

@harp YOU are 50% correct with that one, YES its my frigging Tesco store, (not DB's) how do i know, I know the woman in the red jacket in the picture & video she is there every day sometimes twice a day, she a bit metal, when people are queuing up by the freezer reductions she comes along and pushes in, one time she came next to me and just started talking gibberish, even though i ignored her she just goes on & on...this Tesco store i visit is just unreal full of desperate retards xD , surprising that the bald-headed fat tall repulsive romanian C**T pic was not in that dailymail.co.uk article hes there every day... hes the C**T that nearly had my knuckles off  :PissedOff: ...when i attempted to grab some reduced apples!

BTW, the article states the store is " Bromley by Bow " that's complete bollox, just think if they wrote the REAL town surely some of those folks could sue for picture copyright infringement or some other BS in our PC world?!

What i'll do is try and get a 'selfie' of that metal woman when i see her, only thing is it will be a tad difficult as my mobile is an 17 year old Nokia!

image.jpeg.29d3f02efc14f7c8c3764761dc4a96a1.jpeg

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Has anybody got a link to a decent list of FTSE companies and how far in debt they are? 

 Sure I'm being simple but my phone just won't throw one up.

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Interesting to see just how many US govt workers are struggling after the loss of just 1 paycheck, some even having to sell their cars. Preview of what's to come in near recession, house of cards to fall down insanely fast IMO

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9 hours ago, stokiescum said:

its about flexability i think,being able to adapt and take advantage of the system legaly but the key to that is massive saveings or low debt.take me the x is at my house her house lies empty she is exchanging in 3 weeks.due to domestic violence he basicly drove her nuts she got sectioned.she has had her pip assesment back.

basicly any time within the next 18 months i can be her carer,ok its only 280 a month but reduced council tax i have a lodger he brings in 220 and i would be allowed to earn 120 a week thats basicly 1 shift at work.now id pay no tax and get 1k a month for what is pretty much early retirment.now you say what happens in 18 months the odds are certain she goes to her doctors with anxiety etc and is given another 18 months.the ability to even concider this option is low debt if you have saveings over 6k they wont let you do it.but you need your debt low enough that it becomes an option.if i was renting it becomes even more profatable has your rents paid.so theres my plan b if work pisses me off or my mum requires help id simply do the above and deprive the state of her care fees 

Made me think of that cheap house you mentioned before and I came up with BTC, Buy to Care.

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10 hours ago, stokiescum said:

its about flexability i think,being able to adapt and take advantage of the system legaly but the key to that is massive saveings or low debt.take me the x is at my house her house lies empty she is exchanging in 3 weeks.due to domestic violence he basicly drove her nuts she got sectioned.she has had her pip assesment back.

basicly any time within the next 18 months i can be her carer,ok its only 280 a month but reduced council tax i have a lodger he brings in 220 and i would be allowed to earn 120 a week thats basicly 1 shift at work.now id pay no tax and get 1k a month for what is pretty much early retirment.now you say what happens in 18 months the odds are certain she goes to her doctors with anxiety etc and is given another 18 months.the ability to even concider this option is low debt if you have saveings over 6k they wont let you do it.but you need your debt low enough that it becomes an option.if i was renting it becomes even more profatable has your rents paid.so theres my plan b if work pisses me off or my mum requires help id simply do the above and deprive the state of her care fees 

I know plenty of people (im talking half of most northern ex pit villages etc) who retired before they were 25,all on benefits.The problems came when Brown increased them at a huge rate and he also created it where benefits added on top of each other.Work 16 hours have £80 tax credit on top,have a child have £65 extra + £20 child benefit,,oh he is a bit naughty,pretend he has ADHD or something,have another £50 tax credits,oh and PIP for care,have another £60 a week.House? have another £120 for the rent.£400 for free a week.When i started work in 88 a single parent in that situation would of ended up getting about 55% of what i took home from a decent factory job.There was plenty of incentive to work and get one,buy a house,build savings etc.

Now the single mother in that situation gets around 35% MORE than someone working 40 hours hard work in a local factory.Insane.

Anyway its off topic and better on other threads,but it does show how this country really is now one of 50% taking from the other 48.9% and the 1% taking it from all of them.We want to be the 0.1% who navigate the situation.

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54 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I know plenty of people (im talking half of most northern ex pit villages etc) who retired before they were 25,all on benefits.The problems came when Brown increased them at a huge rate and he also created it where benefits added on top of each other.Work 16 hours have £80 tax credit on top,have a child have £65 extra + £20 child benefit,,oh he is a bit naughty,pretend he has ADHD or something,have another £50 tax credits,oh and PIP for care,have another £60 a week.House? have another £120 for the rent.£400 for free a week.When i started work in 88 a single parent in that situation would of ended up getting about 55% of what i took home from a decent factory job.There was plenty of incentive to work and get one,buy a house,build savings etc.

Now the single mother in that situation gets around 35% MORE than someone working 40 hours hard work in a local factory.Insane.

Anyway its off topic and better on other threads,but it does show how this country really is now one of 50% taking from the other 48.9% and the 1% taking it from all of them.We want to be the 0.1% who navigate the situation.

The flip side (if those mentioned have de-skilled) might be skills shortages and rapidly rising wages. Whether they adjust the tax bands to encourage work I’m not sure. 

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just have to go on QT and have a bit of a blub to get it all back if its stopped.

I reckon it will be stopped by force rather than by a plan to reduce it, after all when i run out of cash and i cant lend it up, then i become homeless, by force.

Edited by leonardratso

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Another bit on Vista Gold (which I do hold):

 

Vista Gold: Overlooked And Undervalued

Mt. Todd contains nearly 6 million ounces of gold reserve (proven/probable).  A Preliminary Feasibility Study updated in 2018 shows a project with 381,000 ozs of annual production over a 13-yr mine life (479,000 ozs/yr for first 5 years), an after-tax IRR of 20% and after-tax NPV of $679 million.  The current market cap of the stock is $57 million (100 million shares outstanding).  As an operating mine, it would be the fourth largest gold mine in Australia and one of the largest new gold mines in the world over the last several years.

The Mt Todd Project will be converted eventually to a mine.  I suspect that, as the price of gold rises, a large mining company will either invest in the Project and take over operational control or acquire Vista outright.  The Company has signed recent non-disclosure agreements with mining companies interested in the Project. Until an “exit strategy” event unfolds, this stock is an easy double from its current price.

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/vista-gold-overlooked-and-undervalued/

Edited by Errol

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39 minutes ago, Errol said:

Another bit on Vista Gold (which I do hold):

 

Vista Gold: Overlooked And Undervalued

Mt. Todd contains nearly 6 million ounces of gold reserve (proven/probable).  A Preliminary Feasibility Study updated in 2018 shows a project with 381,000 ozs of annual production over a 13-yr mine life (479,000 ozs/yr for first 5 years), an after-tax IRR of 20% and after-tax NPV of $679 million.  The current market cap of the stock is $57 million (100 million shares outstanding).  As an operating mine, it would be the fourth largest gold mine in Australia and one of the largest new gold mines in the world over the last several years.

The Mt Todd Project will be converted eventually to a mine.  I suspect that, as the price of gold rises, a large mining company will either invest in the Project and take over operational control or acquire Vista outright.  The Company has signed recent non-disclosure agreements with mining companies interested in the Project. Until an “exit strategy” event unfolds, this stock is an easy double from its current price.

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/vista-gold-overlooked-and-undervalued/

Be aware that the mine doesn't exist yet and is estimated to cost $850mln. Spending that much - and probable way more - for a target asset value of $679mln a few years down the line doesn't sound like a good piece of business, plus for a company with a market cap of 1/15th of that sum it's out of reach anyway. 

People smarter and more knowledgeable than me suggest that geology is the problem here. Open-pit design makes for cheap digging, but the hardness of the rock results in high-cost crushing&extracting, and recoveries are expected to be very low. That's why the indicated 6mln oz in the ground is only worth 650mln usd with gold price at 1300$. At the current gold price, that mine looks like a money-losing business. 

At a reasonable 1000$ AISC that mine - when built - should be worth at least three times as much, but as things stand it seems it's not even worth building. 

Edited by kibuc

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With this vote in Parliament on Tuesday evening happening is anyone else thinking about doing some hedging against a drop in the pound?

I already have a handful of shares priced in US dollars but I also have some cash in sterling which I'm happy to move into USD temporarily. The question is - will the pound go up or down? Is the chance of a drop greater than the chance of a rise? And psychologicaly will it hurt more to bet on a drop and end up losing money because of a rise, or to do nothing and lose because of a drop?

Bloomberg has some forecasts along with the chances of each and expected excahnge rate:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-12/war-gaming-the-pound-on-brexit-vote-suggests-more-wild-rides

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