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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

Blimey just checked yahoo finance AND ...MORE GOOD NEWS!xD

"Purplebricks shares CRASH by a third as overseas expansion hits wall...!"

Online estate agent Purplebricks saw its shares plummet by more than a third after it warned about the “challenging” UK property market  ...YEAH cos its TOAST!:Jumping:

https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/purplebricks-shares-crash-third-overseas-expansion-hits-wall-101445304.html

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2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Centrica hit a ladder point today so bought a few more grand and last ladder point is £1.07 if it hits.Go Ahead are up 40% now from my bottom ladder buy,but im not going to sell any of those going forward as i only got 3 ladders in rather than 5 and will be holding them for the cycle.Id rather they had carried on down for a full allocation but it shows how these things can diverge at a cycle turn and how some areas turn before others.Between Centrica and Go Ahead im up £120 before dividends with decent sized holdings -18% Centrica + 28% Go Ahead.It will be interesting to see what that is in 7 years time between the two including dividends.Both are doing exactly what i hoped from an operational point to structure for the cycle ahead,but its starting to show in Go Ahead while in Centrica its still hidden from view.I really hope Centrica can unload the nuclear business as that will clean the balance sheet to a point where they can really grow the sides of the business that will flourish in the next cycle.Once reflation hits,the smaller players will all go under as they wont have the tech needed to be in the sector.My one big worry is that someone takes out Centrica at around £2.20 a share before the next cycle unfolds

Quote

"The disposal of the Clockwork portfolio is aligned with our intention to drive channel and brand simplification across the Group focusing on our owned channels and is the first part of our £500 million divestment programme of non-core assets we announced today alongside our 2018 Preliminary Results. We will continue to drive capital discipline and returns across our portfolio."

Seems like they are listening to you, or at least heading down the right path.

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18 hours ago, sancho panza said:

With you there Harley.I've moved some shrots back on after two motnhs off since early Feb.I think a lot of Western Stock Marets are looking toppy eg DJIA,CAC,DAX,FTSE.All looking overbought. 

FWIW, just had potential buy signals on my two FTSE shorts today.  Need to wait for a few confirmations, including on the weeklies, before I act.

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Clueless Imbecile
On 19/02/2019 at 21:30, Clueless Imbecile said:

Hi Guys. Thanks for your replies to my recent post.

Just thought I'd tell you about an intensely annoying experience I have just had...

I just tried to sell some of my SIBANYE GOLD LTD SPON ADR EACH REP 4 ORD SHS this evening whilst the NYSE was open. My holding was up about 55 percent at one point.

However, my online share dealing ISA (Lloyds Bank) would not allow me to trade them. Long story short... after calling them and waiting on hold for a while they told me that the stock is no longer ISA eligible (you what?!!). That's even though I was able to buy them through my online ISA last year.

They said I can phone them tomorrow and get them to carry out a trade for me over the phone, but obviously the share price could have moved by then. This has really given me cold feet. My current thinking (which could change) is that if the stock is still showing a good profit for me tomorrow then I might call them and ask them to sell all of my Sibanye Gold Ltd shares (rather than just top-slicing). It's not much good to me if I can't trade online as & when I want to. It's hard enough making money from the stock market as it is, without having my hands tied like that. I asked about my other NYSE listed stocks and they seemed to think that I would still be ok to trade them online in my ISA.

I was all set to top-slice and make a decent profit tonight. Well pissed-off now...!


Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

Here is a quick update following on from my previous post...

I phoned my online ISA provider (Lloyds Bank) yesterday and asked them to sell my holding of SIBANYE GOLD LTD SPON ADR EACH REP 4 ORD SHS. Whilst looking at my account online I saw that I was also unable to use the online facility to sell my HARMONY GOLD MNG SPON ADR REP 1 ORD ZAR0.50, so I asked them to sell my holding of that stock also. They sold my holding in both stocks in accordance with the instructions I gave over the telephone and only charged me the online trading fee (which is a lot cheaper than the telephone trading fee).

Based on conversations I had with Lloyds Bank, it sounds like HMRC have decided that ADR ("American Depository Receipt") shares are not eligible to be traded in an ISA (even though I was allowed to buy both stocks in my online ISA last year). I don't know how accurate that information is, and I have not checked with HMRC.

I made a decent profit on those two stocks, although unfortunately, the last time I looked I was seeing a paper loss on some of my other stocks which was slightly more than my profit on Sibanye and Harmony. I was given the option of holding the ADR stocks in an online trading account that is outside of an ISA, but I don't want the risk of having to pay capital gains tax, and I don't even want the obligation of having to keep records to prove that any profit I make is within the capital gains tax allowance.

I don't know what to do now as regards PM mining shares. In the PM mining sector, Sibanye and Harmony were my favourites. I still hold YAMANA GOLD INC COM NPV in my ISA and my holding was down about 10 percent when I looked earlier today, although that doesn't include the dividends I received from Yamana (I've had several). I also still hold ENDEAVOUR SILVER C COM NPV and NEW GOLD INC COM NPV, although both my holdings were down when I checked today (my New Gold holding was down about 57 percent!).


Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

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1 hour ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

Based on conversations I had with Lloyds Bank, it sounds like HMRC have decided that ADR ("American Depository Receipt") shares are not eligible to be traded in an ISA (even though I was allowed to buy both stocks in my online ISA last year). I don't know how accurate that information is, and I have not checked with HMRC.

I've just checked...

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/stocks-and-shares-investments-for-isa-managers#qualifying-investments-for-stocks-and-shares-isas

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4 hours ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

Based on conversations I had with Lloyds Bank, it sounds like HMRC have decided that ADR ("American Depository Receipt") shares are not eligible to be traded in an ISA (even though I was allowed to buy both stocks in my online ISA last year). I don't know how accurate that information is, and I have not checked with HMRC.

 

I'm not having a problem with Hargreaves Lansdown; they are still showing Sibanye as eligible for ISA or SIPP. I've had a quick look through the link that @BearyBear provided (thanks!) and that seems to say ADRs are ok still.

One thing that has just occurred to me though is do you have an up to date W8BEN form on file with your broker? They tend to only last two or three years and might have expired at the end of last year. They are normally for withholding tax purposes but do have a section for beneficial owner if I remember correctly. That could have relevance for ADRs in an ISA according to the HMRC notes.

Of course this might not be it and it might just be Lloyds Bank!

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10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

SE houses are going down 50% inflation adjusted,maybe 70% i think.

Centrica hit a ladder point today so bought a few more grand and last ladder point is £1.07 if it hits.Go Ahead are up 40% now from my bottom ladder buy,but im not going to sell any of those going forward as i only got 3 ladders in rather than 5 and will be holding them for the cycle.Id rather they had carried on down for a full allocation but it shows how these things can diverge at a cycle turn and how some areas turn before others.Between Centrica and Go Ahead im up £120 before dividends with decent sized holdings -18% Centrica + 28% Go Ahead.It will be interesting to see what that is in 7 years time between the two including dividends.Both are doing exactly what i hoped from an operational point to structure for the cycle ahead,but its starting to show in Go Ahead while in Centrica its still hidden from view.I really hope Centrica can unload the nuclear business as that will clean the balance sheet to a point where they can really grow the sides of the business that will flourish in the next cycle.Once reflation hits,the smaller players will all go under as they wont have the tech needed to be in the sector.My one big worry is that someone takes out Centrica at around £2.20 a share before the next cycle unfolds.

Nice jump in Playtech today as well and my last ladder had gone in at £3.66 though a much smaller allocation and -4% on them now.They could go under or go to £20 between now and 2024 and i hope its the latter.I wish they would unload the trading arm part of the business though.I think the shares would re-rate if they floated that off or sold it.

 

The smaller players are already going under and the abrriers to entry are rising.

I've been beating the drum for Centrica for two years and all it's done is go down steadily.But sometimes that happens.The story looks good,the financials are relatively sound,it's postioned strongly ina market where the competition is opting out,could make the odd disposal to strengthen the balance sheet etc etc

Like the sell off in vodafone though.It's an opportunity.

Have to agree my worry is thaty'kl get taken out cheap as well.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/energy-industry-in-crisis-after-13714317

'Eight British energy companies have now gone bust this year hitting more than 700,000 people.

The latest to collapse was One Select, which went went out of business on Monday morning, just days after being named worst for customer service in a Citizens Advice poll.

The gas and electricity supplier lasted less than two years and joins a shaming list of small firms that have failed to make the grade in the last few months.

The list of shame of gas and electricity companies that have collapsed in 2018 includes Spark Energy, Extra Energy, Future Energy, National Gas and Power, Iresa Energy, Gen4U and Usio Energy.

And it's a list we can expect to get longer.

"Suppliers are getting monumentally squeezed by a volatile energy market, so it’s no surprise that yet another one has gone bust. We expect more casualties this winter,” Arrington said.

What's driving firms under

The energy market has been hit by rising wholesale prices but also by increased red-tape and tougher regulation.

That includes a Government-enforced price cap on standard variable tariffs introduced after a political flare-up over rising bills.

New entrants will have to show they have adequate financial resources and can meet customer service obligations. '

5 hours ago, Harley said:

FWIW, just had potential buy signals on my two FTSE shorts today.  Need to wait for a few confirmations, including on the weeklies, before I act.

I'm positioned a for a mvoe down myself.This rally is getting long in the tooth

4 hours ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

Based on conversations I had with Lloyds Bank, it sounds like HMRC have decided that ADR ("American Depository Receipt") shares are not eligible to be traded in an ISA (even though I was allowed to buy both stocks in my online ISA last year). I don't know how accurate that information is, and I have not checked with HMRC.

 

as per @BearyBear says,you need a new broker.

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8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

The smaller players are already going under and the abrriers to entry are rising.

I've been beating the drum for Centrica for two years and all it's done is go down steadily.But sometimes that happens.The story looks good,the financials are relatively sound,it's postioned strongly ina market where the competition is opting out,could make the odd disposal to strengthen the balance sheet etc etc 

Friend of mine works in energy price comparison, he didn't rate many the smaller players (correctly as it turns out!).

Too many companies chasing too few customers with margins suffering as a result.

Like everything these days actually...

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Its been quietly forgotten, but the employee pension contribution must be 4% of income from April, so my contribution at least is doubling.

The average UK salary will "lose" an extra £572 annually, thats a lot for one person but depending on how many people are hit by this consumption figures for the rest of 2019 might be something to keep an eye on.

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14 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Its been quietly forgotten, but the employee pension contribution must be 4% of income from April, so my contribution at least is doubling.

The average UK salary will "lose" an extra £572 annually, thats a lot for one person but depending on how many people are hit by this consumption figures for the rest of 2019 might be something to keep an eye on.

Tax thresholds are increasing a fair bit though, which might help soften the blow. 

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26 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Tax thresholds are increasing a fair bit though, which might help soften the blow. 

Well spotted, although thats going to make keeping the Government deficit down a little bit harder, unless they do the usual tax increases elsewhere.

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45 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Its been quietly forgotten, but the employee pension contribution must be 4% of income from April, so my contribution at least is doubling.

The average UK salary will "lose" an extra £572 annually, thats a lot for one person but depending on how many people are hit by this consumption figures for the rest of 2019 might be something to keep an eye on.

I'm pretty sure it's going up to 8% made up of 5% from the employee and 3% from the employer

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37 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Tax thresholds are increasing a fair bit though, which might help soften the blow. 

Income tax threshold is going up but aren't they taking straight back in NI? When I looked earlier in the year at a comparison I was only going to be a few quid better off, hardly any change at all to my take home.

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Inspired by DB's strategy, I've top-sliced a third off my gold miners after seeing some divergence starting to appear between daily price and my long-time favourite oscillator,  Williams%R with a non-standard 45 period ( as opposed to the more usual 13 or 14 ).  Some were over 80% up.. Anglogold Ashanti and Kirkland Lake being the top performers. 

Not sure how or when reload.. possibly laddering, or possibly when my oscillator bottoms out and/or shows positive divergence again. Maybe I'll do two legs in.. one if we retouch the uptrend line, and one as we touch the ichemoku cloud. Ideally the oscillator signal will coincide with one of these support levels, but I guess we'll see.

My silver miners are still underwater, so depending on circumstance, they may get a top up. Overall my DB inspired ISA is up 25% since the summer, with that profit now sitting in cash ready to be re-deployed. Thanks DB!

1817123675_Screenshot2019-02-22at18_46_33.thumb.png.688255171566eb64a9bf7af81e9995de.png

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Very positive feed back I have sold some gold miners but for me and this applies to all it really depends on your individual circumstance on whether you are portfolio building as a buy and hold or a trader. Silver miners for me are so so. Just bought more silver physical Brits £5k as I view silver as bargain basement  

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On silver miners my view is the time is not ready just yet. I can feel recession in the air that is gathering pace. Lets see if DBs May time call is right. I would not bet against it as it feels right at thi s moment in time

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22 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Very positive feed back I have sold some gold miners but for me and this applies to all it really depends on your individual circumstance on whether you are portfolio building as a buy and hold or a trader. Silver miners for me are so so. Just bought more silver physical Brits £5k as I view silver as bargain basement  

 

18 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

On silver miners my view is the time is not ready just yet. I can feel recession in the air that is gathering pace. Lets see if DBs May time call is right. I would not bet against it as it feels right at thi s moment in time

Makes sense.  I'm still fairly heavily into PMs, along with transports ( doing well ) and uranium ( down and still waiting for their time to come ), but wanted take some off the table after a good run. Now it's wait and see for me. In an ideal world some general market volatility to increase my options trading prospects, plus other job prospects coming to fruition would mean I'll be comfortable putting more capital to work in the miners as I'll be in a position to buy and hold. 

 

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4 hours ago, MvR said:

Inspired by DB's strategy, I've top-sliced a third off my gold miners after seeing some divergence starting to appear between daily price and my long-time favourite oscillator,  Williams%R with a non-standard 45 period ( as opposed to the more usual 13 or 14 ).  Some were over 80% up.. Anglogold Ashanti and Kirkland Lake being the top performers. 

Not sure how or when reload.. possibly laddering, or possibly when my oscillator bottoms out and/or shows positive divergence again. Maybe I'll do two legs in.. one if we retouch the uptrend line, and one as we touch the ichemoku cloud. Ideally the oscillator signal will coincide with one of these support levels, but I guess we'll see.

My silver miners are still underwater, so depending on circumstance, they may get a top up. Overall my DB inspired ISA is up 25% since the summer, with that profit now sitting in cash ready to be re-deployed. Thanks DB!

 

My gold miners are about 10% up, silver 25%.  Although by "silver miners" I mainly mean Fresnillo which I bought very close to the bottom on Black Friday, when AJ Bell had free trading offer.  

But I am less than 10% up overall mainly thanks to Vodafone and Centrica too now.

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25 minutes ago, Great Guy said:

.

Council tax should really be about 1% of a properties value. It's not unreasonable for someone with a £50m house to pay £500k a year.

And then watch all the get up and go deal makers and business owners fuck off that employ you. Just look at New York and California that is hollowing out the middle class

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45 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

On silver miners my view is the time is not ready just yet. I can feel recession in the air that is gathering pace. Lets see if DBs May time call is right. I would not bet against it as it feels right at thi s moment in time

Must admit I/we won't be top slicing or selling any .Some weakness in May would give us a chance to add some more.I'm hedging ten years of inadequate/misjudged/disastrous CB policies that will end in tears.Pointless us elling after a year or two in this asset class.

 

I agree on the recession in the air.Don't know whether it'll be Q3 2019 or Q2 2020 in the US,but we're well overdue.The canaries are already dropping in Oz.

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8 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

My gold miners are about 10% up, silver 25%.  Although by "silver miners" I mainly mean Fresnillo which I bought very close to the bottom on Black Friday, when AJ Bell had free trading offer.  

But I am less than 10% up overall mainly thanks to Vodafone and Centrica too now.

Personally I don't focus too muchh on per centages up/down as being in the red can really stop you buying good assets when they're cheap.Virtually every multibagger I've ever owned has gone into the red after purchase.

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4 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

And then watch all the get up and go deal makers and business owners fuck off that employ you. Just look at New York and California that is hollowing out the middle class

So what do you suggest then? No taxes for rich people and only poor people pay tax?

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