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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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1 hour ago, Harley said:

Crossing wires - you're responding to a different (but important) topic/issue than mine.

"The issue here is not about the rights and wrongs on this specific scheme ("too good to be true") but how it's been approached and the standards it sets for the future".

This was (very arguably) not a fraud.  The 20 year rule could have been challenged in appeal, as has traditionally been the right.  It required extra statutory intervention to avoid this possibility.

And, as stated, my key point is far broader than this specific example - an expected rise in regulation and such actions.

But yes, buyer beware indeed!

If you take all these peoples money wont they just end up on benefits?

Also this is just going after the low hanging fruit, poor and middle class..

loads of people operating in this country registered in tax havens, where £billions could be recovered.. but I doubt they are on the agenda.. easier to show some old tart on benefits claiming for a bad back she does not have, than go after 10 water companies washing profits through tax havens, or 10 companies with government awarded NHS contracts registered in tax havens..

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1 hour ago, macca said:

loads of people operating in this country registered in tax havens, where £billions could be recovered.. but I doubt they are on the agenda.. easier to show some old tart on benefits claiming for a bad back she does not have, than go after 10 water companies washing profits through tax havens, or 10 companies with government awarded NHS contracts registered in tax havens..

Indeed.  Watch the Crickhowell documentary and weep.  Except the video has been taken down!

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6 hours ago, macca said:

If you take all these peoples money wont they just end up on benefits?

Also this is just going after the low hanging fruit, poor and middle class..

loads of people operating in this country registered in tax havens, where £billions could be recovered.. but I doubt they are on the agenda.. easier to show some old tart on benefits claiming for a bad back she does not have, than go after 10 water companies washing profits through tax havens, or 10 companies with government awarded NHS contracts registered in tax havens..

No.

They are going after people who were using the most laughable tax dodging setuip, based on some fucked up concpet put together by a bunch of idiot advisors.

Anyone with a tax bill of 400k will have earned in the region of 1m+ over the last 10 years. Thast not low hanging.

The question is where the money? Id guess a lot has been stuffed in a pension or property.

Really, its not HMRC being dicks. Its the idiot wings of contractors.

 

 

 

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re contractors, know someone caught with this, HMRC recalc'd their tax liablility back to 2006, they were given a ball park figure of £28K to £80K to pay back. Final bill is £31K, but hoping to reduce that to £28K on appeal.

Was one of those umbrella schemes where you pay offshore and then take a loan back but never pay it off as thats your salary etc. Always sounded a bit bent to me, obviously HMRC thought so too.

Still, a nasty shock after a decade, luckily the person is no longer a contractor so the earnings and tax are therefore not through the roof.

BTW they also charge i think 4% interest PA on the outstanding amounts.

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24 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

BTW they also charge i think 4% interest PA on the outstanding amounts.

I think it's 3.25% currently but higher historically. But if you're a scumbag student at uni with a student loan you pay 6.3%! 

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I missed the Hammerson Plc numbers but others picked up in other and up threads. It looks like another year of asset sales and crucially huge strategic focus on it.  Not sure what the activist investors play is. I’ve not looked at their gearing ratio recently. Can’t be worse than Intu Plc?

https://news.sky.com/story/bullring-owner-hammerson-eyes-500m-sales-in-tough-uk-market-11647656

Hammerson, the owner of shopping centres including Birmingham's Bullring and Brent Cross in London, is to offload more sites despite the tough commercial property market.

The FTSE 250 company used the publication of its annual results to say it was creating a committee to bolster the disposal of non-core properties - aiming to raise more than £500m this year after sales worth £570m in 2018”

 

 

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3 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

I missed the Hammerson Plc numbers but others picked up in other and up threads. It looks like another year of asset sales and crucially huge strategic focus on it.  Not sure what the activist investors play is. I’ve not looked at their gearing ratio recently. Can’t be worse than Intu Plc?

https://news.sky.com/story/bullring-owner-hammerson-eyes-500m-sales-in-tough-uk-market-11647656

Hammerson, the owner of shopping centres including Birmingham's Bullring and Brent Cross in London, is to offload more sites despite the tough commercial property market.

The FTSE 250 company used the publication of its annual results to say it was creating a committee to bolster the disposal of non-core properties - aiming to raise more than £500m this year after sales worth £570m in 2018”

 

 

If Hammerson, a shopping centre company, does not want shopping centres, who the fuck does?

 

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Wolf again, matches up uncannily with when the US stock markets threw a wobbly.

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/02/26/imports-by-china-emerging-asia-plunge-most-since-2008/

China-Emerging-Asia-world-trade-monitor-

And an interesting anecdotal comment.

Quote

No blowup. This time is different because we are sailing through oceans never seen so it’s impossible to say what will happen.

China seems to have run into some serious problem we have serious troubles diagnosing. All I can say is that the vicious cycle of huge liquidity injections around the Lunar New Year that has become the “new normal” for the Chinese economy seems only able to stimulate shorter and shorter term demand. I have no doubt the present flood of yuan will create it again, but the question is how long will it last? Last year it had run its course after just two quarters.

Allow me here a personal excursion but over the past three months I’ve started having some serious problems with Chinese suppliers. I am not talking about the much abused “Chinese junk”: in fact quality of the latest shipment of polycarbonate moldings I received was absolutely excellent, passed QC with top grade. It’s the same thing as happened with fiddles: their top stuff is at the same level as our top stuff, perhaps a tad bit better, and often cheaper. I am talking about continuous “snags” in the delivery process. Parts that get shipped but disappear from tracking when reaching a hub, shipped parts vanishing into thin air, repeated delays in shipping… the puzzling fact is that every request is met promptly with a “we are working on it” and refund requests are handled quickly and efficiently. These are not fly-by-night outfits out for a quick cash grab, but serious firms with some serious problems. You clearly see they want to keep foreign customers happy but there’s “something” beyond their control happening.

What this “something” is I have no idea but I’ve never seen something like this before, not even back in 2009.
Through oceans never seen/through fog as thick as night.

If anyone has any info on exactly what is wrong I would be interested to see it, China is opaque at the best of times.

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UnconventionalWisdom
12 hours ago, Harley said:

Indeed.  Watch the Crickhowell documentary and weep.  Except the video has been taken down!

Spider's web (on YouTube) is good. 

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19 hours ago, Shatner's Bassoon said:

Very true. I heard of an RBS employee who killed himself because of this. Which often crosses my mind when I look at my (fairly) daft number of Centrica shares and its ever dwindling share price.

With the tax benefits, cheap option prices, a buy 2 get 1 free scheme, dividends, and the ability to cancel sharesaves and take out new ones at a lower price, it's pretty hard to make a loss with these schemes, even at this level, but I'd still be a bit goosed if the company went under. On the flip side, if it ever does take off in a reflation it would probably buy me a cheap house...

Now, I am only an inexperienced investor but if one of my investments triggered thoughts of suicide, however distant and abstract, I would consider selling half my stack, if not all of it.

N.B. I had a nibble at Centrica a few days ago at 119p. DB and others on here also hold so you are amongst allies!

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3 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Wolf again, matches up uncannily with when the US stock markets threw a wobbly.

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/02/26/imports-by-china-emerging-asia-plunge-most-since-2008/

China-Emerging-Asia-world-trade-monitor-

And an interesting anecdotal comment.

If anyone has any info on exactly what is wrong I would be interested to see it, China is opaque at the best of times.

I set up a business importing from China 7 years ago.Back then a 40HQ container costing £18k would make around £20k gross profit.(before storage,others expenses).Today it will cost £24k and make £7k gross profit.There is hardly any margin importing anymore and if you have staff and debts a lot will go under.Iv gone back to work.Orders are flowing in that would of gone to China.£8k engine from Darlington or £7k from China means Darlington every time if your a buyer.

China is in serious trouble.Trump and the Fed are hammering them to give the dollar another cycle as reserve.

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Shatner's Bassoon
1 hour ago, billfunk said:

Now, I am only an inexperienced investor but if one of my investments triggered thoughts of suicide, however distant and abstract, I would consider selling half my stack, if not all of it.

N.B. I had a nibble at Centrica a few days ago at 119p. DB and others on here also hold so you are amongst allies!

Well, it’s just to remind myself not to have all my eggs in one basket, especially if it’s the company I work for. Wasn’t contemplating suicide! I think I probably have about 11% of my portfolio in Centrica shares. Still hefty for a single stock, but a fair bit is tied up in schemes that can be cancelled and restarted at lower option prices. Worst case scenario you get your money back. Option price is 20% off current prices, so hoping it stays low for another week as it means this year’s will be  sub £1.00.

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10 hours ago, spygirl said:

Anyone with a tax bill of 400k will have earned in the region of 1m+ over the last 10 years. Thast not low hanging.

 

 

I agree that’s a lot of money to me.. 

but compared to tax dodger Richard Branson or Philip green.. its pennies.. not to mention all the economic destruction someone like Green caused asset stripping BHS and it’s pension funds. 

So once again why are the super rich immune to this? When they are by far the biggest tax dodgers and therefore the easiest targets.. 

if I can read it in a news paper why can’t the tax man? 

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1 hour ago, macca said:

I agree that’s a lot of money to me.. 

but compared to tax dodger Richard Branson or Philip green.. its pennies.. not to mention all the economic destruction someone like Green caused asset stripping BHS and it’s pension funds. 

So once again why are the super rich immune to this? When they are by far the biggest tax dodgers and therefore the easiest targets.. 

if I can read it in a news paper why can’t the tax man? 

Forgive the Graun link and being from 2013 but there lies your answer

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/apr/26/accountancy-firms-knowledge-treasury-avoid-tax

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2 hours ago, macca said:

I agree that’s a lot of money to me.. 

but compared to tax dodger Richard Branson or Philip green.. its pennies.. not to mention all the economic destruction someone like Green caused asset stripping BHS and it’s pension funds. 

So once again why are the super rich immune to this? When they are by far the biggest tax dodgers and therefore the easiest targets.. 

if I can read it in a news paper why can’t the tax man? 

Dont start that silly game.

Most companies pay hand over fist with vat collection and NI.

Corporate taxes can be mitigated by jigging around. But corp. tax is tiny.

Green was trying to duck out of a pension liability, which was on the books as bigger than it needs be due to low gilts, which is down to moron Browns fuckup. Theyve got good cash out the dodgy fucker. Bhs pension is more than fully funded.

Bransons a lying bser - if he does not pay tax its down to him not earning anything.

The uks biggest tax dodgers are working age people on benefits.

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Chewing Grass
1 minute ago, spygirl said:

The uks biggest tax didgers are working age people in benefits.

Spot on observation there, they (New Labour) even legalised and sanitised it by slipping the word credit in.

"By the time New Labour left office in 2010 it accounted for 1.9% of GDP – almost as much as the government spends on Defence – and was the second-largest item in the social security budget after the state pension. Yet it did not feature prominently in any of New Labour’s three winning election campaigns."

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/tax-credit-cuts-mystery/

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3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I set up a business importing from China 7 years ago.Back then a 40HQ container costing £18k would make around £20k gross profit.(before storage,others expenses).Today it will cost £24k and make £7k gross profit.There is hardly any margin importing anymore and if you have staff and debts a lot will go under.Iv gone back to work.Orders are flowing in that would of gone to China.£8k engine from Darlington or £7k from China means Darlington every time if your a buyer.

China is in serious trouble.Trump and the Fed are hammering them to give the dollar another cycle as reserve.

Well.....

Darlo engine will work, will meet quality standards, will be made with qa specced materials.

Chinese engine will be something that looks like an engine but falls to bits.

Japan took 20 years from being nuked to producing world beating cars tellies n electronics n heavy plant.

China has took 30 years to err, not very far. Dont be fooled by the odd good chinese product. Median chinese product is junk, shit. Still feeding baby powder with poison in to its own kids ffs.

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11 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Still feeding baby powder with poison in to its own kids ffs.

I can't comment on the rest of your post, but from memory this wasn't entirely their fault - they bought some of it from the Kiwis.

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15 minutes ago, Alex said:

I can't comment on the rest of your post, but from memory this wasn't entirely their fault - they bought some of it from the Kiwis.

No.

Chinese factory was dosing it to frig the protein check.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Chinese_milk_scandal

You mean thid

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/agribusiness-and-food/new-zealand-dairy-firm-tries-to-contain-chinese-milk-scandal-1.1485403

I think china still bans import of milk powder.

 

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Bricks & Mortar

Can't comment on the milk, but Chinese engines are definitely still shit.  I have the misfortune to own four of them.   I call them engines, just so you know what I mean, but that would suggest they burn fuel and go round, which they don't, most of the time.

Hoping to replace those machines in a bankruptcy auction sometime soon. 

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59 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Well.....

Darlo engine will work, will meet quality standards, will be made with qa specced materials.

Chinese engine will be something that looks like an engine but falls to bits.

Japan took 20 years from being nuked to producing world beating cars tellies n electronics n heavy plant.

China has took 30 years to err, not very far. Dont be fooled by the odd good chinese product. Median chinese product is junk, shit. Still feeding baby powder with poison in to its own kids ffs.

This Chinese-built engine doesn't fall to bits:

https://cdn.wartsila.com/docs/default-source/product-files/engines/g-sets/brochure-o-e-auxpac.pdf?utm_source=engines&utm_medium=generatingsets&utm_term=auxpac&utm_content=brochure&utm_campaign=msleadscoring

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