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DurhamBorn

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

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1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Under the 'what bubble?' category

It's nice being able to post charts...

 

image.png.db9b82f9cc151b3d0f9c1d1a3427c48b.png

@DurhamBorn

Ref the Boeing chart specifically.Reminds me of the late 90's tech bubble.Vritually the definiton of parabolic.

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38 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

@DurhamBorn

Ref the Boeing chart specifically.Reminds me of the late 90's tech bubble.Vritually the definiton of parabolic.

1.91% dividend on a cyclical after a long expansion.

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achtung i made it. Im just gonna go back and start again at page 1, might have missed something.

Strange how you got moderated there DB, i got moderated last week on tos and for what i dont really know, got moderated 3 times in total over last 3 years, and they are reluctant to unmoderate you as well. The other 2 times i just took the piss a bit, but this time - ive no idea. Anyway, enough from me, ill chip in when i think its useful. over and out.

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3 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

achtung i made it. Im just gonna go back and start again at page 1, might have missed something.

Strange how you got moderated there DB, i got moderated last week on tos and for what i dont really know, got moderated 3 times in total over last 3 years, and they are reluctant to unmoderate you as well. The other 2 times i just took the piss a bit, but this time - ive no idea. Anyway, enough from me, ill chip in when i think its useful. over and out.

I feel left out,they only moderated me for a few days last Dec

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1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

I feel left out,they only moderated me for a few days last Dec

its wierd they seem to be inconsistent in their approach, i noticed ive now been unmoderated on there, that probably because i left an @mod reply asking them to remove my account and gave them a mouthful asking why id been moderated in the first place since I hadnt been abusive or even taken the piss.

Anyways, you cant expect much from free stuff, but at least a reason would be nice.

Ok, dont want to derail this thread, so thats the last ill talk of it.

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6 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

its wierd they seem to be inconsistent in their approach, i noticed ive now been unmoderated on there, that probably because i left an @mod reply asking them to remove my account and gave them a mouthful asking why id been moderated in the first place since I hadnt been abusive or even taken the piss.

Anyways, you cant expect much from free stuff, but at least a reason would be nice.

Ok, dont want to derail this thread, so thats the last ill talk of it.

This is free (all hail spunko) and no one has ever been moderated. :)

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7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

You are thinking of the overnight rate,thats all central banks set.Long rates are set by the market.The Fed has done massive amounts around the short end,but nothing around the long end.They can do funding for lending like in the UK of course,but in the scheme of things they are tiny.Rates are low because velocity is low and we are at the end of a deflation cycle.Once we move to an industrial cycle velocity will start to move,and inflation and rates will be following with a lag.I think rates will be minimum 6% by 2025,likely 9%,or maybe 15%.This is why gold and PMs should move higher after the Fed increase (if they do) in June.The Fed moving the short end means they are behind the curve,or too far ahead of it.

Hi DB welcome. I've just noticed this thread and am trying to follow your analysis. I'm glad to see your post as I found your analysis on the changes to state benefits very insightful.

I'm still very confused and uncertain how to structure my investments. Because of my uncertainty I'm mainly in cash. Far too heavily I fear and am undecided whether to move into bonds or shares. Rather than stock pick or invest directly in UK Gilts I've started moving into passive trackers. Global or UK, or US or other regions.

All I know is my inaction over the last four or so years has meant losing out on stock market gains. 

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Good to see you're alive and well Mr. DB on t'interweb. After following HPC for well over a decade and deciding not to buy as prices are/were utterly bonkers (thus losing money via savings being inflated away) this thread enabled me to make a little bit of money over the last few months and can see it doing so for the long term by following this way of thinking.

See the Italians have appointed a Finance Minister who believes in flying helicopters and dropping out money, wondering if it'll start with smaller nations before it hits the big time with namely the US following suit.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/06/01/guru-helicopter-money-takes-italys-treasury-insurgents-gain/

 

 

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Evening all.

I was searching online to see if I can get a HotTub off the DVLA for my bad back or something and I come across yourselves.

Sounds like I might not get my council HotTub now if things are going to go t*ts up?

 

 

Fantastic.

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24 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

aye, cool. seems to be a lot faster as well.

Does seem much faster, strange that.

Currently looking for book / reading recommendations related to this thread, if anyone fancies sharing some wisdom.

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22 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Hi DB welcome. I've just noticed this thread and am trying to follow your analysis. I'm glad to see your post as I found your analysis on the changes to state benefits very insightful.

I'm still very confused and uncertain how to structure my investments. Because of my uncertainty I'm mainly in cash. Far too heavily I fear and am undecided whether to move into bonds or shares. Rather than stock pick or invest directly in UK Gilts I've started moving into passive trackers. Global or UK, or US or other regions.

All I know is my inaction over the last four or so years has meant losing out on stock market gains. 

im reading wicaos book, so far what im taking away is 'just get started' late to the party or not, i can go with that, some old stuff i started and kept up with, has done very well, others i messed about with not so good, but i held in there - small and often wont really effect your cash pile im finding, plus spread it well, some will fall/fail, but the spread is the hedge.

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Posted (edited)
Hello ALL especially durhamborn !
 
Got a message at the other place from Sancho Panza ...
 

So joined up IMMEDIATELY as don't want to miss out on the PARTY Ha! :D

 

EDIT: Joined this forum in SECONDS :D hpc took a week to approve!

Edited by Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

im reading wicaos book, so far what im taking away is 'just get started' late to the party or not, i can go with that, some old stuff i started and kept up with, has done very well, others i messed about with not so good, but i held in there - small and often wont really effect your cash pile im finding, plus spread it well, some will fall/fail, but the spread is the hedge.

It got me started and was really good- I really enjoyed John Kay The Long and the Short Of It too. More detail on how to analyze and sort of says be Macro and be a bit contrarian.

Edited by Thorn

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4 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:
Hello ALL especially durhamborn !
 
Got a message at the other place from Sancho Panza ...
 

So joined up IMMEDIATELY as don't want to miss out on the PARTY Ha! :D

Same story for me.

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It's funny how SEO works. Looks like I've stumbled across a very interesting thread. I may or may not frequent another forum (under a different profile name), which I am unable to confirm or deny that :D.

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22 minutes ago, Thorn said:

Evening all.

I was searching online to see if I can get a HotTub off the DVLA for my bad back or something and I come across yourselves.

Sounds like I might not get my council HotTub now if things are going to go t*ts up?

 

 

Fantastic.

:DxD...I think the HUMOUR is going to be just EXCELLENT on here ...judging by the above...in ONLY the way that the BRITS know!

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you guys need to stop posting now since im trying to read from page 1 and i keep getting drug back to see the lastest post. Just sayin... got to go to bed soon, and ive still got my homework to do.

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Just now, leonardratso said:

you guys need to stop posting now since im trying to read from page 1 and i keep getting drug back to see the lastest post. Just sayin... got to go to bed soon, and ive still got my homework to do.

just to WIND ya up i'm posting :DxD

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, One percent said:

Bloody hell, where have you lot all sprung from? 

Welcome. :)

HPC killed its second best thread after DOSBODS 😂

Edited by Cosmic Apple

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