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DurhamBorn

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:
Hello ALL especially durhamborn !
 
Got a message at the other place from Sancho Panza ...
 

So joined up IMMEDIATELY as don't want to miss out on the PARTY Ha! :D

 

EDIT: Joined this forum in SECONDS :D hpc took a week to approve!

Just don't let on to those troll cunts know where we are all hiding!!!

Although personally been attacked once already which quickly saw everyone give 'em a piece of their minds. 

No need for it.

BTW...first thing anyone said to me here was "oh no the count has found us"...second was..." You can swear here ".

 

Fill you fucking boots.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Hello World

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19 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

HPC killed its second best thread after DOSBODS 😂

Ah, so that's where dosbods comes from.

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11 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Just don't let on to those troll cunts know where we are all hiding!!!

Although personally been attacked once already which quickly saw everyone give 'em a piece of their minds. 

No need for it.

BTW...first thing anyone said to me here was "oh no the count has found us"...second was..." You can swear here ".

 

Fill you fucking boots.

 

my only interest at the other place was DB's thread - i saw what the cantankerous argumentative trolls were doing at other threads, and i ain't got NO interest with arguing LIFE IS JUST TO SHORT...so i won't be saying sweet FA at other place so no worries there mate - my word is my bond, ya cousin vinny ha!

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2 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:
 

my only interest at the other place was DB's thread - i saw what the cantankerous argumentative trolls were doing at other threads, and i ain't got NO interest with arguing LIFE IS JUST TO SHORT...so i won't be saying sweet FA at other place so no worries there mate - my word is my bond, ya cousin vinny ha!

Oddly, the trolls didn't frequent this thread on tos.

I don't think the understood it...or realised its importance.

 

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8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

You are thinking of the overnight rate,thats all central banks set.Long rates are set by the market.The Fed has done massive amounts around the short end,but nothing around the long end.They can do funding for lending like in the UK of course,but in the scheme of things they are tiny.Rates are low because velocity is low and we are at the end of a deflation cycle.Once we move to an industrial cycle velocity will start to move,and inflation and rates will be following with a lag.I think rates will be minimum 6% by 2025,likely 9%,or maybe 15%.This is why gold and PMs should move higher after the Fed increase (if they do) in June.The Fed moving the short end means they are behind the curve,or too far ahead of it.

Hey everyone

Article here by David Brady from a couple of weeks ago about likelihood of a gold rally following FOMC. Happened five out of the last six times.

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/gold-awaits-its-fomc-fuse-david-brady-24-052018.html

 

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On 05/06/2018 at 20:10, Green Devil said:

I can't see what the trigger will be to raise interest rates.

Go to a petrol station. I filled up yesterday and nearly didn't believe it. Low interest rate means fall in the value of the pound against the dollar. Oil has to be paid for in dollars. If petrol was 2 or 3 quid a litre there would be riots, as they actually do have now in Brazil the country has almost collapsed because truckers can no longer pay the price for diesel and are on strike. I think BOE would raise rates before that.

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1 hour ago, Banned by HPC said:

Good to see you're alive and well Mr. DB on t'interweb. After following HPC for well over a decade and deciding not to buy as prices are/were utterly bonkers (thus losing money via savings being inflated away) this thread enabled me to make a little bit of money over the last few months and can see it doing so for the long term by following this way of thinking.

See the Italians have appointed a Finance Minister who believes in flying helicopters and dropping out money, wondering if it'll start with smaller nations before it hits the big time with namely the US following suit.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/06/01/guru-helicopter-money-takes-italys-treasury-insurgents-gain/

 

 

Good to see you have made a few quid.The inflation running ahead of rates has been criminal.Of course thats why we will end up seeing the biggest PM bull market in history soon.The fact houses in the UK have priced in inflation and rates at 0.5% is incredible.I see young couples walking into the new build show homes near me and almost weep for them.

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8 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Go to a petrol station. I filled up yesterday and nearly didn't believe it. Low interest rate means fall in the value of the pound against the dollar. Oil has to be paid for in dollars. If petrol was 2 or 3 quid a litre there would be riots, as they actually do have now in Brazil the country has almost collapsed because truckers can no longer pay the price for diesel and are on strike. I think BOE would raise rates before that.

 

i don't think that repulsive canadian criminal dummy would put rate up if war even broke out!
 
I HATE THAT canadian criminal dummy...I HATE HIM! I HATE HIM! I HATE HIM!
 

Rant over!

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9 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

 If petrol was 2 or 3 quid a litre there would be riots

A war in the ME could see to that.

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1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Good to see you have made a few quid.The inflation running ahead of rates has been criminal.Of course thats why we will end up seeing the biggest PM bull market in history soon.The fact houses in the UK have priced in inflation and rates at 0.5% is incredible.I see young couples walking into the new build show homes near me and almost weep for them.

Are you still working on the lines of a PM rise and fall before the big bull run?

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Good Lord, it's all the best people here now! Welcome in particular to @DurhamBorn; your thread was the only one worth going back there for. Can't understand what possible reason they might have for putting you (and others who've mentioned it) on moderation, but I'm pleased you have chosen to continue sharing your thoughts and analyses here.

I am in agreement that inflation is the only realistic way out of the massive levels of debt that have been amassed, but since it has become the new normal, a change in circumstances won't be expected and that is what I suspect is what will precipitate a deflationary event. I'm not knowledgable enough to be confident in that, so have hedges for as many events as I can imagine, allocated accordingly.

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2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Good to see you have made a few quid.The inflation running ahead of rates has been criminal.Of course thats why we will end up seeing the biggest PM bull market in history soon.The fact houses in the UK have priced in inflation and rates at 0.5% is incredible.I see young couples walking into the new build show homes near me and almost weep for them.

ahem, ala venger ... adults..market..competition..etc, no need to weep for young uns' theyve got time on their side.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Good to see you have made a few quid.The inflation running ahead of rates has been criminal.Of course thats why we will end up seeing the biggest PM bull market in history soon.The fact houses in the UK have priced in inflation and rates at 0.5% is incredible.I see young couples walking into the new build show homes near me and almost weep for them.

About 5% in 4 months, but only a small amount staked. Drax, Infa and ELD have done best.

Still staying predominantly in cash, to see if IBTL drops then get out of sterling. Thinking there is no need to be in a hurry if what is predicted comes to fruition, though seeing stocks i hesitated on rise rapidly can spin my head.(Cameco most recently)

Edited by Banned by HPC

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Just now, Admiral Pepe said:

Are you still working on the lines of a PM rise and fall before the big bull run?

I think so Pepe yes,but im not 100% sure on the fall in between.Our main work the last 18 months was on currency and im pleased to say our calls were the best in the market.We have been doing a lot of work on the PM complex the last month,mainly due to the fact we expected $1200 to $1450 by now and we only got to $1370.Still a great call,but not enough to kick the miners up.The action after the Fed meeting  will be crucial.For myself iv been buying the complex and moved into platinum and its miners today as well.

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What the fuck...?

I preferred being spammed by them Chinese bastards from a few weeks back compared to this bunch of former hpc cunts.

Johnny-come-latelys the fucking lot of them....

 

 

XYY

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6 minutes ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

Good Lord, it's all the best people here now! Welcome in particular to @DurhamBorn; your thread was the only one worth going back there for. Can't understand what possible reason they might have for putting you (and others who've mentioned it) on moderation, but I'm pleased you have chosen to continue sharing your thoughts and analyses here.

I am in agreement that inflation is the only realistic way out of the massive levels of debt that have been amassed, but since it has become the new normal, a change in circumstances won't be expected and that is what I suspect is what will precipitate a deflationary event. I'm not knowledgable enough to be confident in that, so have hedges for as many events as I can imagine, allocated accordingly.

Your not alone.It is now pretty much certain we are getting a reflation and with it higher inflation (and then rates).We see very high inflation,panic stations high,but even if that is wrong,5%-10% is baked in (by 2025).The fog is the getting there part.The liquidity profiles across the world now point to big problems.There simply isnt the liquidity to fund the leverage.People think the dollar is back in a bull market and the euro toast.We dont agree.95 looks like a top in the dollar then back down to 86 and the euro might be the rally.The Fed tightening again next week is going to turn the noose again on emerging markets.

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1 hour ago, darkmarket said:

Does seem much faster, strange that.

Currently looking for book / reading recommendations related to this thread, if anyone fancies sharing some wisdom.

I dont know if you have seen this site,but i would really advise reading Steven's articles going back two years.He isnt a macro strategist,but he is a superb contrarian who does a lot of work on flows,insider buying/selling etc.For instance gold mining companies have seen big insider buying,house building companies have seen big insider selling.Im sure youl enjoy his articles.

http://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/

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14 minutes ago, The XYY Man said:

What the fuck...?

I preferred being spammed by them Chinese bastards from a few weeks back compared to this bunch of former hpc cunts.

Johnny-come-latelys the fucking lot of them....

 

 

XYY

That's Mr former HPC cunt to you.....

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Posted (edited)

DB, was only last week I was thinking of you, must be picking up the white witch tendencies of my wife. Never gone back to TOS, just wouldn't want to give them the clicks.

A few weeks ago was looking at PM's being a possible bullish market going forward in a sea of debt loaded / QE elevated assets.

A few key things for me (though not an active investor now at all).

i) Fuel price and inflation in many other areas or products disappearing at a price point.

ii) Establishment push for cashless society - this should spur interest in PM's

iii) Don't rule out central banks raising rates and collapsing the lot in an attempt to change the political climate  - they are doing just that with Italy, did so with Greece and would not put it past them to do it globally. Under those circumstances could be looking at no / little / or QE targeted just to save the selected few and screw the rest to get the desired result - a pliant overall population begging for global financial stability and all the centralised control/mechanisms that go with that. May sound tin foil hatted but but if 20years ago you'd said we'd be where we are now in terms of creeping globalisation / destruction of nation states may not seem quite so outrageous.

Edit

(iv) Margins, suspect there are a huge number of companies out there that can only operate with QE elevated volume on thin margins, recent retail failures suggest even that is not working any more, as sales drop inflationary pressure could be very large to compensate for any further fall off in sales volumes, basically raise prices and make a profit or shut down altogether.

Edited by onlyme

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