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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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6 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

Dude, which fund is that? standard life aberdeen, looks like LANDG has finished revamping their website now and outsourcing their funds, and we have these under aberdeen, is it any of these?

image.png.b2097b9ed074ca600fe4f8a1d4854820.png

 

I think he's talking about the firm itself?

Thousands more households are seriously behind with their mortgage now than during the financial crisis in 2008, despite near-record low rates

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-6466873/More-households-mortgage-arrears-2008-FCA-says.html

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5 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

I think he's talking about the company itself?

 

Duur, sorry, my mistake, you mean this;

 

image.png.0dcc4c50a8b0a595dfec12b3879f294b.png

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1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

Duur, sorry, my mistake, you mean this;

 

image.png.0dcc4c50a8b0a595dfec12b3879f294b.png

Yes.They have a very large section that invests in "real assets" ie infrastructure,and will be very well placed in the next cycle.I also see funds flowing away from passive back to managed.However they might get hit even harder in an equity sell off so i might set an expanding ladder £1k,£2k,£3k,£4k for £10k if say £1.50 reached.

The divi might be cut before we enter the cycle,30% would see us go in with a 6% yield on todays price.

Legal and General would be another,but i dont like all the pension deals they are taking on.I simply dont understand the deals or how they are structured.

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2 hours ago, spygirl said:

Thats long overdue benefit cuts and reduction in EEersmisc. migrants.

And the fall of the sterling.

 

 

Couldnt get close to the reduced section in Tesco last night 8 middle eastern migrants.No women with them,they will be at home.Iv noticed we are getting lots sent up here now,and lots of 2nd generation with southern accents.

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OUCH!!! Non-farm payrolls just released, +155k vs +198k expected, significantly below. Also Oct figure revised down by 13k.

One more hike (if that) and the Fed is done.

Notice U.S. futures are soaring on the bad news, expectation of dovish Fed = Santa rally still on?

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18 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

OUCH!!! Non-farm payrolls just released, +155k vs +198k expected, significantly below. Also Oct figure revised down by 13k.

One more hike (if that) and the Fed is done.

Notice U.S. futures are soaring on the bad news, expectation of dovish Fed = Santa rally still on?

Drumpf's tax cut seems to have run out of gas...

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38 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

OUCH!!! Non-farm payrolls just released, +155k vs +198k expected, significantly below. Also Oct figure revised down by 13k.

One more hike (if that) and the Fed is done.

Notice U.S. futures are soaring on the bad news, expectation of dovish Fed = Santa rally still on?

Slowdown in hiring is down to there's no employable people left in the US.

The skills needed for most US jobs is a lot higher than it was 30 years ago.

 

 

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25 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Drumpf's tax cut seems to have run out of gas...

Isn't it 7 rate rises (6 minus one just before he took control), would snuff out anything when you have run the economy on ZIRP.

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2 minutes ago, onlyme said:

Isn't it 7 rate rises (6 minus one just before he took control), would snuff out anything when you have run the economy on ZIRP.

ZIRP is a symptom not a cause. Ten years on from the GFC and the US economy is once again hopelessly underwater.  To avoid a recession next year will require additional QE from the Fed and/or more govt borrowing.

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2 hours ago, Thorn said:

Watching GDX approach 20.

I'm going to say it will hit it today. 

OK... so not enough volume... another day or 2 of this though and we should bust through 20.1

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9 hours ago, Barnsey said:

http://www.cityam.com/270305/primark-owner-warns-challenging-trading-and-tough-retail

You just know when Primark say they're starting to struggle we're flipping close to the big one!

I expect sales revenue is up but like for like sales revenue falling. Primark have no e-commerce business(at least what we know publicly). Risky? 

As an aside I went into a Mothercare store today and there was hardly any stock to sell. I think this is probably the supplier restrictions refered to publicly. I’m Not sure how they get out of that one tbh. 

 

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46432260

doesnt seem to have affected Go Aheads share price that much which probably means it’s seen as a buy and hold by more than just us. 

Mulling over how long is too long to get into this type of reflation stock, by the time it hits the fan maybe the smart money will pore in straight away? 

I read on here I think it will have gone past you so fast you won’t be able to react quick enough!

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Ive never seen the PM miners act like this, Gold is off to the races and they are all going "meh".

Complete capitulation or is there something im missing?

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8 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Ive never seen the PM miners act like this, Gold is off to the races and they are all going "meh".

Complete capitulation or is there something im missing?

That's an interesting observation. I'd say any time Arca goes up by 2.2% is an absolutely terrific day for goldies. Even NewGold is up over 4.5%.

And then, of course, there's this:

image.png.c0d300e33cb46e0814378f759bb8557c.png

 

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1 hour ago, Ma2 said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46432260

doesnt seem to have affected Go Aheads share price that much which probably means it’s seen as a buy and hold by more than just us. 

Mulling over how long is too long to get into this type of reflation stock, by the time it hits the fan maybe the smart money will pore in straight away? 

I read on here I think it will have gone past you so fast you won’t be able to react quick enough!

Agree with that.  I'm seeing stealth moves in bonds and some income/value stocks.  UK and APD and even EM.  They go down with the market but not as much and then bounce back quicker as people buy their dip.  PMs on the up and watching commodities too just in case.  We need just this sort of volatility to try and spot the smart money hands.

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5 minutes ago, Harley said:

Agree with that.  I'm seeing stealth moves in bonds and some income/value stocks.  UK and APD and even EM.  They go down with the market but not as much and then bounce back quicker as people buy their dip.  PMs on the up and watching commodities too just in case.  We need just this sort of volatility to try and spot the smart money hands.

Don’t get me wrong I’ve been averaging in but I have been keeping some powder dry for a big crash. Now I’m wondering if it will happen that way and if I’ll be quick enough if it does! 

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28 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Ive never seen the PM miners act like this, Gold is off to the races and they are all going "meh".

Complete capitulation or is there something im missing?

Yes, certainly not the conventional way.  Miners are meant to lead the PMs, or so it was often claimed. 

Capture.thumb.PNG.4c11b16df2d7a795b90490ad096b9f29.PNG

Gold in red, GDX in blue.  Of course, varies depending on your start point.

But GDX is currently rising nice and steady since 10 Sep 18.  Nice set of higher highs and higher lows with potentially still quite a bit to go looking at the RSI and the MACD.  More of a stealth rally.

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8 minutes ago, kibuc said:

That's an interesting observation. I'd say any time Arca goes up by 2.2% is an absolutely terrific day for goldies. Even NewGold is up over 4.5%.

And then, of course, there's this: 

image.png.c0d300e33cb46e0814378f759bb8557c.png

 

They are starting to move up slowly now, the last time i saw anything close was back in Aug 17 when PM's were soaring but miners were not following.  Didnt like it and luckily sold before it crashed back to $1200!

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

Yes, certainly not the conventional way.  Miners are meant to lead the PMs, or so it was often claimed.  

Gold in red, GDX in blue.  Of course, varies depending on your start point.

Interesting chart thanks, clearly shows how long Golds been in the doldrums, nice and hated :)

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14 minutes ago, Ma2 said:

Don’t get me wrong I’ve been averaging in but I have been keeping some powder dry for a big crash. Now I’m wondering if it will happen that way and if I’ll be quick enough if it does! 

Agreed, that's why I'll probably pull back to look at the weekly charts, unless something big happens now and then.  I'm worried I'll get good entries in the short term but could exhaust allocations and miss the bigger overall moves.  Also a lot less work!

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It's frustrating because I have my almighty target list of reflation stocks (thanks in part to many of you on here), but I just keep thinking we're not even in a recession yet, so whilst some great ones are down considerably since the Brexit vote, when the recession hits next year (likely), how much further down will they go? Especially if it is indeed huge debt deflation/panic. For those of us with limited funds, it makes a huge difference.

Go Ahead for example, fell 66% in the GFC (over about 18 months). If we see early 2016 as the peak, we're looking at perhaps 900, maybe even less if the panic is widespread?

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3 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Ive never seen the PM miners act like this, Gold is off to the races and they are all going "meh".

Complete capitulation or is there something im missing?

Eldorado Gold +7.02%

Endeavour Silver +7.07%

Harmony Gold +1.23%

New Gold +9.53%

Sandstorm Gold +4.08%

Sibanye Gold +6.08%

Yamana Gold +3.20%

 

Not a bad day for miners from my list..!

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33 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Eldorado Gold +7.02%

Endeavour Silver +7.07%

Harmony Gold +1.23%

New Gold +9.53%

Sandstorm Gold +4.08%

Sibanye Gold +6.08%

Yamana Gold +3.20%

 

Not a bad day for miners from my list..!

100% agree. Same here. And God bless wee GDX it climbed up higher than previous  resistance at 20.1

Hopefully now she’ll lead them all upwards like she’s a guide for them...It’s like all of a sudden a lovely sea of green. 

DB you’re a marvel. 

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14 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Couldnt get close to the reduced section in Tesco last night 8 middle eastern migrants.No women with them,they will be at home.Iv noticed we are getting lots sent up here now,and lots of 2nd generation with southern accents.

I gave up on M&S reduced  items.. Used to get fillet steak for £1.50 now it’s a war zone.. 

again it seems to be all foreign people, I’m not being racist just stating what I am experiencing.. Its a real fight.. 

There was one guy who used to put all the reduced stuff in his basket and take it to the bloke to reduce for final reduction.. 

They stopped that so now you que behind the reduction man, he has walked away in the past due to the pressure.. asking people to give him space.. 

Its nothing like I’ve ever experienced. Everyday is like Black Friday in the yellow sticker isle.. 

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