Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[UnconventionalWisdom]

1 minute ago, Majorpain said:

Napoleon didn't want to know if an up and coming general was good, he wanted to know if he was lucky! I treat the stock market like I would a casino, ultimately I hope that this thread will help us stack the deck in our favour, and ive helped add a smidgeon of value to it.

I must admit that I've got that "buy gold" feeling again, it was right last time in 2015 so fingers crossed its right this time.

That's how I view it. Do your homework and chose what you feel is right. Put in what you can lose and make use of tax advantages/government incentives such as LISA. 

Unfortunately idiots doing no homework are currently winning with their bet on a BTL because they saw their greedy mate make money. Let's hope things reverse

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, A_P said:

More like 0.06% and divis 4%+. Like I said previously over 20 years someone would be looking at 130% growth with an intial £1000 invested and reinvesting the divis.  Personally I don't think that's to be sniffed at if in it for the long haul given the powers of compounding. Each to their own though.

Now I'm not saying stock picking isn't the thing to do going forward. But for most can they honestly expect to out perform the above consistantly? I'm not convinced. Now if you want massive gains then yeah don't bother. But I thought this thread was about protecting wealth and coming out the other side? If you want to go big or go home then open a robinhood account and peruse wallstreetbets on reddit.

Like I said I'm no expert but this undated WSJ piece is saying average costs 0.44% but that may well depend on the sector.I think if you get an ETF for 0.06% and it tracks the FTSE then that's a really viable trade.Especially given they sell the losers mechanically and most normal humans wouldn't.Ftse 100 has had numerous huge changes through the Tech and banking collapses.

I think for really arcane sectors,ETF's offer a really good way in.

As I said re gold, given my lack of knowledge,I might have been better buying GDX/GDXJ.And there were loads of people who got caught -including myself-in the banks courtesy of using high yield strategy's.

http://guides.wsj.com/personal-finance/investing/how-to-choose-an-exchange-traded-fund-etf/

Looks like average divi since 2012 was 3.7%.I remember reading 3% a few years back.

http://siblisresearch.com/data/ftse-all-total-return-dividend/

 

Some readings on divi cover or the lack of it.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/199709/ftse-100-stocks-set-to-yield-more-but-dividend-cover-on-big-payers-such-as-bt-is-worryingly-skinny-199709.html

'“Between them, Shell, BP and HSBC are forecast to offer dividends worth £25 billion or 29% of the total, using a dollar-sterling cross rate of $1.34,” Mould observed.

“Overall, the ten highest dividend paying firms are forecast to pay out over half the FTSE 100 dividends on their own, a total of £47.4 billion,” Mould said.

“The average cover across the 10 highest yielding stocks in the FTSE 100 has, however, slipped back to 1.29 times, compared to 1.42 times in March,” Mould warned.

“This is partly because recent share price falls mean that Vodafone and BT are now among the ten highest yielding stocks and their cover ratios are 0.8 times and 1.7 times respectively. Recent weakness in the share prices of the house builders also means three such firms now feature in the list of ten highest yielding stocks. '

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, A_P said:

More like 0.06% and divis 4%+. Like I said previously over 20 years someone would be looking at 130% growth with an intial £1000 invested and reinvesting the divis.  Personally I don't think that's to be sniffed at if in it for the long haul given the powers of compounding. Each to their own though.

Now I'm not saying stock picking isn't the thing to do going forward. But for most can they honestly expect to out perform the above consistantly? I'm not convinced. Now if you want massive gains then yeah don't bother. But I thought this thread was about protecting wealth and coming out the other side? If you want to go big or go home then open a robinhood account and peruse wallstreetbets on reddit.

Worth also referencing the Barclays Equities/Gilts study which shows equity investment as the way to protect wealth in real terms.

Just looking at Barclays i shares and expense ratio is 0.07%...which is pretty incredible given they must rebalance regularly

Interesting page.Stating total return since 2000 is 3.93% p.a.Benchmark returned 4.29%.

https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251795/ishares-ftse-100-ucits-etf-inc-fund?switchLocale=y&siteEntryPassthrough=true#/

[A_P]

12 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Like I said I'm no expert but this undated WSJ piece is saying average costs 0.44% but that may well depend on the sector.I think if you get an ETF for 0.06% and it tracks the FTSE then that's a really viable trade.Especially given they sell the losers mechanically and most normal humans wouldn't.Ftse 100 has had numerous huge changes through the Tech and banking collapses.

I think for really arcane sectors,ETF's offer a really good way in.

As I said re gold, given my lack of knowledge,I might have been better buying GDX/GDXJ.And there were loads of people who got caught -including myself-in the banks courtesy of using high yield strategy's.

http://guides.wsj.com/personal-finance/investing/how-to-choose-an-exchange-traded-fund-etf/

Looks like average divi since 2012 was 3.7%.I remember reading 3% a few years back.

http://siblisresearch.com/data/ftse-all-total-return-dividend/

 

Some readings on divi cover or the lack of it.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/199709/ftse-100-stocks-set-to-yield-more-but-dividend-cover-on-big-payers-such-as-bt-is-worryingly-skinny-199709.html

'“Between them, Shell, BP and HSBC are forecast to offer dividends worth £25 billion or 29% of the total, using a dollar-sterling cross rate of $1.34,” Mould observed.

“Overall, the ten highest dividend paying firms are forecast to pay out over half the FTSE 100 dividends on their own, a total of £47.4 billion,” Mould said.

“The average cover across the 10 highest yielding stocks in the FTSE 100 has, however, slipped back to 1.29 times, compared to 1.42 times in March,” Mould warned.

“This is partly because recent share price falls mean that Vodafone and BT are now among the ten highest yielding stocks and their cover ratios are 0.8 times and 1.7 times respectively. Recent weakness in the share prices of the house builders also means three such firms now feature in the list of ten highest yielding stocks. '

I'm not pulling the figures out of my arse....

• Vanguard FTSE 100 Index Unit Trust 0.06% - latest distrubtion 4.02%
• Vanguard FTSE 100 ETF VUKE - 0.09% latest distribution  4.26%
• iShares plc Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF - 0.07% - latest distribution 4.20%
• HSBC FTSE 100 UCITS ETF - 0.07% - latest distribution 4.21%

There are plenty more, including All-share for not much, eg HSBC All-Share is 0.8% or Vanguard All-Share for 0.9%.

Ref GDX and GDXJ. Go careful, their OCF is fairly high but their hidden trasnactional costs are sky high. Not worth it in my opinion as I've conveyed previously. There are other ETF's/Funds discussed in this thread that personally I think are more approprioately priced

Now I don't dismiss your divi cover or lack of it. But then the stock pickers face the same issue there, which lets face it most of them touted in here are in the FTSE 100...

 

[sancho panza]

8 minutes ago, A_P said:

I'm not pulling the figures out of my arse....

• Vanguard FTSE 100 Index Unit Trust 0.06% - latest distrubtion 4.02%
• Vanguard FTSE 100 ETF VUKE - 0.09% latest distribution  4.26%
• iShares plc Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF - 0.07% - latest distribution 4.20%
• HSBC FTSE 100 UCITS ETF - 0.07% - latest distribution 4.21%

There are plenty more, including All-share for not much, eg HSBC All-Share is 0.8% or Vanguard All-Share for 0.9%.

Ref GDX and GDXJ. Go careful, their OCF is fairly high but their hidden trasnactional costs are sky high. Not worth it in my opinion as I've conveyed previously. There are other ETF's/Funds discussed in this thread that personally I think are more approprioately priced

Now I don't dismiss your divi cover or lack of it. But then the stock pickers face the same issue there, which lets face it most of them touted in here are in the FTSE 100...

 

I'm open to all ideas.When ETF's first got touted back ni the day the expense ratio was a lot higher and I just kinda switched off.I also have an inherent distrust of financial middlemen.As things got more computerised and the expensive middlemen got taken out of the way,it was only natural that the expense ratio came down.Whilst they're not for me right now,I wouldn't rule it out in the future.

Ftse 100 is a liquid trade,things like GDXJ are trading in minnows with a sometimes 2%+ spread.Plus Forex.naturally their costs will be higher.Despite Kibuc's best efforts I still don't understand properly how the x2 stuff works.

As you say,divi cover is an issue for all shares whetehr bought within an ETF or not.

 

[DurhamBorn]

Id just like to add a thought on gold miners.In normal times/bear markets the companies are priced on profit AISC etc.In a gold bull the companies start to become priced on oz in the ground.You start to hear talk of "you can buy the gold in the ground at only $10 an oz,$20,only $100,only $200 "etc.Thats why the companies with big resource profiles compared to market cap 10x,20x and as i expect some to do in the next cycle,100x.

Of course it also means their share prices can continue providing pain in a poor gold market,and worse a poor gold market/rising cost one.

The space is very very difficult and its why i do very little research on the companies,and instead follow 8 to 10 indicators that point to the complex being a buy.They dont always provide a profitable entry point,but i have found they take the emotion out of things,and over time provide an edge.They are pointing to GDX maybe hitting $24 in Feb,and perhaps $38 later next year.They also sometimes fail.

As @sancho panza has eluded to as well,i think the next cycle might see the PM sector do a .com .My friend also thinks there is a very good chance of that happening as well and sees silver at $200 or maybe even $300.That could be seen as hyperbole now,and rightly questioned.However its only a question of liquidity,and if/when the CBs start to print again then the snowball can start to run away from them down the hill.

 

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, A_P said:

More like 0.06% and divis 4%+. Like I said previously over 20 years someone would be looking at 130% growth with an intial £1000 invested and reinvesting the divis.  Personally I don't think that's to be sniffed at if in it for the long haul given the powers of compounding. Each to their own though.

 

I'd be very surprised if cash at NS&I hasn't beaten 130% over 20 years.

[A_P]

16 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I'd be very surprised if cash at NS&I hasn't beaten 130% over 20 years.

Do the sums and let us know. That 130% is purely on £1000 deposited in 1999 with divis reinvested. So it's gone through the dot com and GFC and had no further money added to it. So my original point of reinvesting and continually buying througout you will probably do alright in the long run. Obvously just to add past returns etc etc. Also it's not something I'm going to do myself. I'm not believer of being so heavily focused on the UK

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, A_P said:

Do the sums and let us know. That 130% is purely on £1000 deposited in 1999 with divis reinvested. So it's gone through the dot com and GFC and had no further money added to it. So my original point of reinvesting and continually buying througout you will probably do alright in the long run. Obvously just to add past returns etc etc. Also it's not something I'm going to do myself. I'm not believer of being so heavily focused on the UK

I don't have the actual NS&I saving rates but I was partly thinking of products no longer available such as Guaranteed Income Bonds and Index Linked Certificates.

This suggests average saving rates and from 1999 to 2017 and £1,000 becomes £1,881. Though an average rate should be able to be improved upon. If you only add 1% to each rate then £1,000 becomes £2,258. I think that's a minimum add on, e.g. they have 1% for 2017 which then becomes just 2%. I'm getting 2.5% on a rolled over GIB and ILC's are RPI+

[Harley]

Daily Gold looking interesting in both USD and GBP - broken resistance last week and now testing it as support.  Technicals looking a little bit weak to push price higher but certainly could happen.  Anyways, interesting to see if it forms a base here.  Daily Silver in GBP broken through resistance and technically looking good. A bit mixed in USD.

[DoINeedOne]

So far for miners most are down 5-10%

But 

AU  +42%

SBGL  +29%

ABX +15

[Harley]

What was up with SLA today?  Near 5% rise.

[Democorruptcy]

29 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

So far for miners most are down 5-10%

But 

AU  +42%

SBGL  +29%

ABX +15

Where are those from?

[AWW]

24 minutes ago, Harley said:

What was up with SLA today?  Near 5% rise.

It's all off the back of my price alert triggering yesterday (or day before?) at 220 offered, but I was in meetings all day and didn't get chance to buy.

[Harley]

9 minutes ago, AWW said:

It's all off the back of my price alert triggering yesterday (or day before?) at 220 offered, but I was in meetings all day and didn't get chance to buy.

Yeh, got one on the daily on 12 Dec 18 but have moved to weekly, but there too!

Maybe the 9.27 yield?

[Democorruptcy]

42 minutes ago, Harley said:

What was up with SLA today?  Near 5% rise.

Motley Fool tipped them up on the 11th

I think the dirt-cheap Standard Life share price and its 10% yield is too exciting to ignore

[BearyBear]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Motley Fool tipped them up on the 11th

I think the dirt-cheap Standard Life share price and its 10% yield is too exciting to ignore

It pays more to hold SL shares than have a pension plan with them... at least from my experience, left them a few grands for 10 years and it's exactly the same amount today.

[zugzwang]

33 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

It pays more to hold SL shares than have a pension plan with them... at least from my experience, left them a few grands for 10 years and it's exactly the same amount today.

The house always wins.

[Thorn]

Does anybody else think SIL is about to breakout? 

We cannot get it on HL yet though...

DB or Sancho Panza… if you were wanting to get some of this, where would you go..? (DYOR etc) 

[Barnsey]

According to Citi, US leveraged loans trading above par has plummeted from near 80% to almost 0% in just 2 months, massive canary!

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-13/wheels-come-leveraged-loan-market-banks-unable-offload-loans-amid-record-outflows

(Other reputable sources have reported this)

[Majorpain]

6 hours ago, Barnsey said:

According to Citi, US leveraged loans trading above par has plummeted from near 80% to almost 0% in just 2 months, massive canary!

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-13/wheels-come-leveraged-loan-market-banks-unable-offload-loans-amid-record-outflows

(Other reputable sources have reported this)

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/12/12/oil-bust-2-kicks-off-with-parker-drilling-bankruptcy/

Might have something to do with Shale oil (round 2).

[DoINeedOne]

13 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Where are those from?

That was my return so far on holding them not what they where up that day

[Democorruptcy]

2 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

That was my return so far on holding them not what they where up that day

Ah right.... I tried tapping the side of the monitor but the daily figures still stayed a lot lower.

[A_P]

8 hours ago, Thorn said:

Does anybody else think SIL is about to breakout? 

We cannot get it on HL yet though...

DB or Sancho Panza… if you were wanting to get some of this, where would you go..? (DYOR etc)

I think you would need to go through IB or perhaps try Degiro but I suspect they will have the same issues as UK brokers

[Bear Hug]

2 minutes ago, A_P said:

I think you would need to go through IB or perhaps try Degiro but I suspect they will have the same issues as UK brokers

I looked for SIL on Degiro a while back, did not see it