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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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8 minutes ago, A_P said:

I think you would need to go through IB or perhaps try Degiro but I suspect they will have the same issues as UK brokers

Yup.. Interactive Brokers don't do the US ETFs either now.

Interestingly, I can still trade the options against those ETFs. I'm not sure what happens if an option I sold were exercised.. could I sell the stock I'm put?  Or would it settle for cash like futures option?  Either way one could set up a synthetic position.. short the put and long the call at the same strike price, and this would behave like a ETF stock position.

There's always CFDs and spread-betting too, though the financing costs mean these aren't good instruments to hold for the medium/long term.

It's a pain being locked out of them. Maybe things will change after 29th March.

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3 minutes ago, MvR said:

Yup.. Interactive Brokers don't do the US ETFs either now.

Interestingly, I can still trade the options against those ETFs. I'm not sure what happens if an option I sold were exercised.. could I sell the stock I'm put?  Or would it settle for cash like futures option?  Either way one could set up a synthetic position.. short the put and long the call at the same strike price, and this would behave like a ETF stock position.

There's always CFDs and spread-betting too, though the financing costs mean these aren't good instruments to hold for the medium/long term.

It's a pain being locked out of them. Maybe things will change after 29th March.

It might be because of the US tax rulings around holding US domiciled ETF if not a resident. I had a look a while back and it's a nightmare. Better investing in US companies direct or UK/Ireland domiciled etf's

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ulez-map-lightbox.jpg

Was thinking about what @DurhamBorn has been saying about transport shares etc... and this ULEZ bollocks the expansion covers where i live in 2020 whilst i own a pickup truck that does not seem to be included in the dark green i have alot friends in construction who this is going to effect alot 

Some live just outside it but work within that area

From 25 October 2021, residents must pay the full daily ULEZ charge to drive a vehicle in the zone if it does not meet the ULEZ standards

Now im all for cleaner air but electric vehicles i dont see many charge points about and the cost for people who do need to pay this for work will just be passed onto the customer again

As for public transport I bet they love it but can they handle the increase

 

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33 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

ulez-map-lightbox.jpg

Was thinking about what @DurhamBorn has been saying about transport shares etc... and this ULEZ bollocks the expansion covers where i live in 2020 whilst i own a pickup truck that does not seem to be included in the dark green i have alot friends in construction who this is going to effect alot 

Some live just outside it but work within that area

From 25 October 2021, residents must pay the full daily ULEZ charge to drive a vehicle in the zone if it does not meet the ULEZ standards

Now im all for cleaner air but electric vehicles i dont see many charge points about and the cost for people who do need to pay this for work will just be passed onto the customer again

As for public transport I bet they love it but can they handle the increase

 

Oh Ive no doubt you should be buying bus cos.

The new buses are pretty smart. Get milage comparable with a 10yo 4x4. Very easy to drive.

The new ticketing system they have in place are great, bth for saving money - busco + passenger - but also for getting feedback on routes and stuff.

Just need to start charging OAPS now - say 50% of normal ticket.

Not sur about traincos - too many useless roels, too unionised.

Sooner train are driverless the better.

 

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21 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Napoleon didn't want to know if an up and coming general was good, he wanted to know if he was lucky! I treat the stock market like I would a casino, ultimately I hope that this thread will help us stack the deck in our favour, and ive helped add a smidgeon of value to it.

I must admit that I've got that "buy gold" feeling again, it was right last time in 2015 so fingers crossed its right this time.

Even with a casino there are games that carry less risk than others and where mathematical strategies can be deployed.Which is where my view is quite similar to yours MP.There are a lot of hypster/scamsters out there and you have to navigate around them be they middlemen selling you crap investment vehicles(incl. most High St bank share plan/many penison policies) or algo driven penny pickers.

 

I remember getting a tipsheet called Techinvest back in the mid to late 90's and speculatively buying a lot of the things mentioned there.Some went down 80% plus before the Tech bubble moonshoot.As ever,I sold way too early(story of my investing life)but I saw the chance to sell shares I knew had little intrinsic value and swap them for some dirt cheap blue chips.

 

19 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Id just like to add a thought on gold miners.In normal times/bear markets the companies are priced on profit AISC etc.In a gold bull the companies start to become priced on oz in the ground.You start to hear talk of "you can buy the gold in the ground at only $10 an oz,$20,only $100,only $200 "etc.Thats why the companies with big resource profiles compared to market cap 10x,20x and as i expect some to do in the next cycle,100x.

Of course it also means their share prices can continue providing pain in a poor gold market,and worse a poor gold market/rising cost one.

The space is very very difficult and its why i do very little research on the companies,and instead follow 8 to 10 indicators that point to the complex being a buy.They dont always provide a profitable entry point,but i have found they take the emotion out of things,and over time provide an edge.They are pointing to GDX maybe hitting $24 in Feb,and perhaps $38 later next year.They also sometimes fail.

As @sancho panza has eluded to as well,i think the next cycle might see the PM sector do a .com .My friend also thinks there is a very good chance of that happening as well and sees silver at $200 or maybe even $300.That could be seen as hyperbole now,and rightly questioned.However its only a question of liquidity,and if/when the CBs start to print again then the snowball can start to run away from them down the hill.

 

Ref your first point.You said that a while back and I'd never thought about it like that but I think if there's enough of a bull run,then that will happen.Already,as you, Kibuc and MP  have said some of the more marginal producers are losing money at $1300 but will be printing it at $1400.Hence why I'm looking for someshares around the peripheries as well as some majors.

My reason for buying PM miners is that I think we've seen peak faith in CB's.Pure and simple.Mish SHedlock has a great article about reasons for buying PM's and in it he highlights the correaltion between the price and faith in CB's.

I genuinely think historians will look back at QE and Zirp wonder wtf did they think they were doing.

 

9 hours ago, Thorn said:

Does anybody else think SIL is about to breakout? 

We cannot get it on HL yet though...

DB or Sancho Panza… if you were wanting to get some of this, where would you go..? (DYOR etc) 

1738384886_Screenshot(19).thumb.png.62ff1a8424fa1ac25601a415514756a8.png

As I've said before,PM miners charts have been no use to me as the asset jsut behave like a lot of normal share sectors do.All you can say for sure is that it's historically cheap but may get cheaper yet.

2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

I quoted barnsey only to see you'd already psoted it lol.Chapter 11 will feature heavily next year.

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The whole piece is worth a read but the take home is the first para.

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/12/13/us-banks-disclose-biggest-unrealized-losses-on-security-investments-since-q1-2009-fdic/

'The FDIC just released the aggregated third-quarter performance metrics of the 5,477 banks and thrifts it insures. The amount of their combined assets ticked up to $17.7 trillion. These assets – mostly loans but also investments of all kinds – include $3.6 trillion in securities (not including the securities in their trading accounts). And banks got hit by the biggest quarterly losses on those securities since the first quarter of 2009.'

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On 13/12/2018 at 09:43, A_P said:

Bit of an older video (earlier in the year) but I saw this last night. Was posted on the ToS. Absolutely bonkers the sums of money that were borrowed

 

Cross post from the kangaroo thread.Watch and weep.Incredible viewing.

Woman on front cover had borrowed AUD$6mn at peak and is now going bust.One hosue gets mentioned being worth AUD$900k at peak,now she says AUD$190k.

 

Oz is deep in the hole.

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1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Oh Ive no doubt you should be buying bus cos.

The new buses are pretty smart. Get milage comparable with a 10yo 4x4. Very easy to drive.

The new ticketing system they have in place are great, bth for saving money - busco + passenger - but also for getting feedback on routes and stuff.

Just need to start charging OAPS now - say 50% of normal ticket.

Not sur about traincos - too many useless roels, too unionised.

Sooner train are driverless the better.

 

The feedback like you say is golden on the new tech.Stagecoach saw revenue per mile up 4%+ this year,they will be tweaking routes etc with the data.There will be a lot of no driver transport as well going forward.Not the main routes,but park and ride loops etc.On demand will also see massive growth.Go Ahead have a really good one going already in Cambridge the Pickmeup service.Its probably still loss making,but doing very well.More and more urban areas will tax cars out,and in the next cycle as oil hits $200+ more people will give up owning,or at least give up driving as much.

The key danger is if the big tech companies (or car companies) take over the space with on demand cars,though joint ventures with the transport companies could be the route they take as they have the local depots etc.

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4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The feedback like you say is golden on the new tech.Stagecoach saw revenue per mile up 4%+ this year,they will be tweaking routes etc with the data.There will be a lot of no driver transport as well going forward.Not the main routes,but park and ride loops etc.On demand will also see massive growth.Go Ahead have a really good one going already in Cambridge the Pickmeup service.Its probably still loss making,but doing very well.More and more urban areas will tax cars out,and in the next cycle as oil hits $200+ more people will give up owning,or at least give up driving as much.

The key danger is if the big tech companies (or car companies) take over the space with on demand cars,though joint ventures with the transport companies could be the route they take as they have the local depots etc.

More likely to be a partnership. I could not see Jezz Bezos running a fleet of buses and drivers ...

I have to say the following carefully, so I dont sounds like a bus spotter.

My dad, in his very brief working career, worked for Plaxtons in scabby. After a gormless period which saw Plaxtons owned by Transbus blow it and the other bus maker up in the early 00s, AlexDennis have settled down are making excellent buses - 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Dennis_Enviro400

These have pretty much nailed the bus market in the UK and abroad.

Youll see hat Arriva X? near you.

Automatic transmission, power steering. Im seeing more n more women drive these.

MI agree most urban areas will tax restrict private cars. You only have to look a tthe hell that is Whitby May->Oct to se whats going to happen.

 

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, spygirl said:

More likely to be a partnership. I could not see Jezz Bezos running a fleet of buses and drivers ...

I have to say the following carefully, so I dont sounds like a bus spotter.

My dad, in his very brief working career, worked for Plaxtons in scabby. After a gormless period which saw Plaxtons owned by Transbus blow it and the other bus maker up in the early 00s, AlexDennis have settled down are making excellent buses - 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Dennis_Enviro400

These have pretty much nailed the bus market in the UK and abroad.

Youll see hat Arriva X? near you.

Automatic transmission, power steering. Im seeing more n more women drive these.

MI agree most urban areas will tax restrict private cars. You only have to look a tthe hell that is Whitby May->Oct to se whats going to happen.

 

 

 

 

 

Im making the engines for them Spy,i went back to Cummins to work or a while.They are booming at the moment.Most of the buses on the roads (and the mid range trucks) all use Cummins engines made in Darlington.The new ones like you say are superb.They are badged under different names (like Paccar for LeylandDAF),but are all Cummins.The systems they have on modern engines really does get every penny out of the diesel.People dont know it,but the UK has a superb manufacturing sector in lorries,buses and their main parts.Skania are even getting their mid range engines from Darlington now and sticking a Skania badge on.Like you say Dennis are now making cracking buses.I would say this,but i 100% mean it,the engines from Darlington are the best in the world.One of the reasons i went back on top of the money was because i respect them as a company,they make a superb product and they pay people at all levels a very good salary,the best in the sector including all car manufacturers.A lot of work is also coming back from China.Still slightly more expensive,but due to the pound etc the gap is much smaller now and when you compare quality its a no brainer.

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8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im making the engines for them Spy,i went back to Cummins to work or a while.They are booming at the moment.Most of the buses on the roads (and the mid range trucks) all use Cummins engines made in Darlington.The new ones like you say are superb.They are badged under different names (like Paccar for LeylandDAF),but are all Cummins.The systems they have on modern engines really does get every penny out of the diesel.People dont know it,but the UK has a superb manufacturing sector in lorries,buses and their main parts.Skania are even getting their mid range engines from Darlington now and sticking a Skania badge on.Like you say Dennis are now making cracking buses.I would say this,but i 100% mean it,the engines from Darlington are the best in the world.One of the reasons i went back on top of the money was because i respect them as a company,they make a superb product and they pay people at all levels a very good salary,the best in the sector including all car manufacturers.A lot of work is also coming back from China.Still slightly more expensive,but due to the pound etc the gap is much smaller now and when you compare quality its a no brainer.

Bus have arrived at the sweet spot, 200 od years ahead of cars -

engine made by a specialist,

chassis/transmission by someone else,

bodywork fitted out in the local market -except in this case the AlexDennis bodywork is so good it beats everyone else.

Cummins are a good company They are everything that GE isnt.

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46 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Bus have arrived at the sweet spot, 200 od years ahead of cars -

engine made by a specialist,

chassis/transmission by someone else,

bodywork fitted out in the local market -except in this case the AlexDennis bodywork is so good it beats everyone else.

Cummins are a good company They are everything that GE isnt.

my old fellah, gawd rest is soul, was a turbo charger/damper guy for holset, which i believe merged or was bought out by cummins some time in the 80's/90's.

He was made redundant and retired off from there, then afetr that all manufacturing went to china and UK became just testing and quality control, hed be glad were he still alive to hear the manufacturing esp engineering is coming home again.

What goes around comes around i suppose.

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7 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

my old fellah, gawd rest is soul, was a turbo charger/damper guy for holset, which i believe merged or was bought out by cummins some time in the 80's/90's.

He was made redundant and retired off from there, then afetr that all manufacturing went to china and UK became just testing and quality control, hed be glad were he still alive to hear the manufacturing esp engineering is coming home again.

What goes around comes around i suppose.to a culture, driven by membership of the CCP, with not ability to perform QA comes back quickly.

 

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Democorruptcy
On 12/12/2018 at 16:00, sancho panza said:

US ruling? 

You're an experienced speculator DM.Any views on who will propser from this?

 

GVC up 13% so far today ahead the FOBT parliamentary vote on Monday

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

my old fellah, gawd rest is soul, was a turbo charger/damper guy for holset, which i believe merged or was bought out by cummins some time in the 80's/90's.

He was made redundant and retired off from there, then afetr that all manufacturing went to china and UK became just testing and quality control, hed be glad were he still alive to hear the manufacturing esp engineering is coming home again.

What goes around comes around i suppose.

Still part of Cummins Holset and in Huddersfield ,still world leaders in turbo's etc.They are about to get back into tractor engines etc as well and build them in Darlington.Its part of what im doing,they have done a lot of work on the engine blocks so they can handle the torque needed for agricultural work.If i was foreign competitors id be very worried,the new engines will be best in class and clean up i expect.JCB are already using them in their agricultural side.Lots more coming back to the UK as well.My friend is helping a company making TVs in the UK,and he has just finished a project for a company now making washers and looking at cookers.It will take a while,but supply chains will slowly build up again.Lots of factory jobs appearing near me now.£10 an hour a lot of them,but given you can get a decent terrace for £60k a couple working can have a nice life.

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52 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Still part of Cummins Holset and in Huddersfield ,still world leaders in turbo's etc.They are about to get back into tractor engines etc as well and build them in Darlington.Its part of what im doing,they have done a lot of work on the engine blocks so they can handle the torque needed for agricultural work.If i was foreign competitors id be very worried,the new engines will be best in class and clean up i expect.JCB are already using them in their agricultural side.Lots more coming back to the UK as well.My friend is helping a company making TVs in the UK,and he has just finished a project for a company now making washers and looking at cookers.It will take a while,but supply chains will slowly build up again.Lots of factory jobs appearing near me now.£10 an hour a lot of them,but given you can get a decent terrace for £60k a couple working can have a nice life.

jcb have there own engine development they will build there own in time i suspect,i presume the engines you meantion are in the fast trak

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3 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

jcb have there own engine development they will build there own in time i suspect,i presume the engines you meantion are in the fast trak

They build engines themselves already,but cant meet the laws for the higher end stuff,they get all those from Cummins and always will,they are way behind.They tried to get a price cut or they threatened to make their own on others,Cummins said bye bye see you when you come back.They did after they couldnt build them.They got a nice price increase when they came back as well.No equipment maker can make their own engines going forward for anything other than basic mechanical stuff..Every Komatsu engine is Cummins as well and most of the Japanese makers of plant are now getting their engines from Darlington.VDL bus in Holland,their engines are from Darlo.You have Case etc still make their own,but for how much longer on any scale is the question.

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6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

They build engines themselves already,but cant meet the laws for the higher end stuff,they get all those from Cummins and always will,they are way behind.They tried to get a price cut or they threatened to make their own on others,Cummins said bye bye see you when you come back.They did after they couldnt build them.They got a nice price increase when they came back as well.No equipment maker can make their own engines going forward for anything other than basic mechanical stuff..Every Komatsu engine is Cummins as well and most of the Japanese makers of plant are now getting their engines from Darlington.VDL bus in Holland,their engines are from Darlo.You have Case etc still make their own,but for how much longer on any scale is the question.

i think the latest fastracks use yank engines,the only reason they even started building them was because a previouse supplier was prone to strikes.im going back to the late 70s early 80s.im glad to see an english producer makeing something others cant.

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14 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

i think the latest fastracks use yank engines,the only reason they even started building them was because a previouse supplier was prone to strikes.im going back to the late 70s early 80s.im glad to see an english producer makeing something others cant.

Kohler Lombardini?

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8 minutes ago, Ponty Mython said:

Kohler Lombardini?

agco sisu units,though jcb do built engines for over 70% of what they sell.oops they are finish my bad.

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3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

GVC up 13% so far today ahead the FOBT parliamentary vote on Monday

 

 

 

That’s because they’ll save £672m on the Ladbrokes purchase price if the max stake gets cut to £2.

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Democorruptcy
16 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

That’s because they’ll save £672m on the Ladbrokes purchase price if the max stake gets cut to £2.

Yes, I posted about that to SP earlier in the thread.

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

They build engines themselves already,but cant meet the laws for the higher end stuff,they get all those from Cummins and always will,they are way behind.They tried to get a price cut or they threatened to make their own on others,Cummins said bye bye see you when you come back.They did after they couldnt build them.They got a nice price increase when they came back as well.No equipment maker can make their own engines going forward for anything other than basic mechanical stuff..Every Komatsu engine is Cummins as well and most of the Japanese makers of plant are now getting their engines from Darlington.VDL bus in Holland,their engines are from Darlo.You have Case etc still make their own,but for how much longer on any scale is the question.

yeah, we lived in halifax back then and he worked out of halifax and huddersfield.

Funny you should mention jcb wanting stuff cheap, i remember him telling me back in the 80's that volvo were threatening to go elsewhere for their turbos because they considered holset to be expensive, hahaha, holset told them to piss off then, they were back within the year because the cheap turbos were costing them a fortune as they kept blowing up and having to to be replaced under warranty. I know they did a lot of big engine stuff, boats, trucks, trains, basically anything. Our cellar was chock full of expensive vanadium spanners and high end tools that he'd erm borrowed from work, plus run out fandrives and a mountain of mis-machined turbos, bearings, housings, a hell of a lot of decent metal and machine parts that could be repurposed, He was well paid and got a decent pension and redundancy package out of them, but he was there nearly 40 years. Some of his work colleagues at his funeral did say it was a decent enough place to work and they were very skilled, but were priced out by cheap labour and shit products mainly from china in the end.

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1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

yeah, we lived in halifax back then and he worked out of halifax and huddersfield.

Funny you should mention jcb wanting stuff cheap, i remember him telling me back in the 80's that volvo were threatening to go elsewhere for their turbos because they considered holset to be expensive, hahaha, holset told them to piss off then, they were back within the year because the cheap turbos were costing them a fortune as they kept blowing up and having to to be replaced under warranty. I know they did a lot of big engine stuff, boats, trucks, trains, basically anything. Our cellar was chock full of expensive vanadium spanners and high end tools that he'd erm borrowed from work, plus run out fandrives and a mountain of mis-machined turbos, bearings, housings, a hell of a lot of decent metal and machine parts that could be repurposed, He was well paid and got a decent pension and redundancy package out of them, but he was there nearly 40 years. Some of his work colleagues at his funeral did say it was a decent enough place to work and they were very skilled, but were priced out by cheap labour and shit products mainly from china in the end.

Theres no such thing as cheap, skilled labout. Not for long anyway.

The only time ive seen a large level of cheap labour was in the early to mid 90s when the ussr fell to bits and the techocrat class poured out.

They are no longer cheap. Ive been offered an expensive trip to estonia, to see how id like to live there.

Slovakia, and the countries within a few 100k of western europe, as it was, are more expensive - and productive - than spain and portugal.

Go a few more 100k and they are drunk and useless.

China? Gone now. Massive population fall. Got at least one revolution to go through.

India? Pop needs to fall 50% so you can work out tge productive ones.

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2 hours ago, spygirl said:

Theres no such thing as cheap, skilled labour. Not for long anyway.

Where I work we have lots of builders, carpenters etc from all over the world! 

Only thing is hardly any of them are skilled labour! They turn up on day 1 as labourers, shifting wood, metal, rubbish.. etc 

after a year their using a hammer,, after 2 years their a carpenter..

We have degraded our own young and imported needed so called “skilled labour”

But so called skilled Labour is basically an apprenticeship.. People actually must think the whole of Europe is full of qualified builders.. 

Truth is if they all go back home after 10 years of learning on the job they might be right! 

And we have taught hardly any of our own! 

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