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DurhamBorn

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

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https://wolfstreet.com/2019/02/09/carmageddon-for-tesla-model-3-us-deliveries-plunge-55-to-60-from-q4-laid-off-delivery-employees-tell-reuters/

Quote

Musk shed some light on part of the reasons: “The demand for Model 3 is insanely high. The inhibitor is affordability. It’s just like people literally don’t have the money to buy the car.”

There are no words....

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One of the big themes so far this year has been Modern Monetary Theory or MMT for short. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-31/eveything-you-wanted-know-about-mmt-were-afraid-ask

My take on it is that it essentially advocates what @DurhamBornpredicts in that in the next downturn central banks will print money and give it straight to government to spend.

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13 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Tesla is one that I just don't get, how can it have such heady valuations. I guess its coming up to crunch time when Q1 numbers get posted

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8 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Tesla is one that I just don't get, how can it have such heady valuations. I guess its coming up to crunch time when Q1 numbers get posted

Mortgage Backed Digital Clicks. Companies in the tech or digital sectors, which Tesla have positioned themselves (rather than a car manufactuer lolz) in are pulling all kinds of stunts to woo investors. Please see what happened to the Buzzfeed et al.

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This might be a useful read for those picking divi stocks (hhtps://www.ukinvestor.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Master-Investor-Magazine-Issue-46-Free-cash-flow.pdf).

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17 hours ago, billfunk said:

Would you mind explaining to a noob what you mean by "Ladders" in this context?

Thank you in advance.

Playtech i bought some shares at £4.20 and i have "ladders" to buy if their shares hit £3.70,£3.30,£2.90.If they dont il only own one amount.I always use ladders in anything i buy,though not always equal amounts.If i want £10k in a stock i might go £4k,£2k,£2k,£2k etc.

I tend to do my buying at what i consider cycle turns,and i have no way of timing buys and find ladder buying in stocks i already consider cheap works out best for me.Of course if someone was putting £1k into each stock then laddering isnt worth it really due to costs.

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19 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

If your road map is as reliable as you state, then there should be no need for concern. It doesn't matter that PMs drop significantly when followed by a vast bull run.

If you trust it that much then just sit on it, surely? Is the concern with selling into the dip and then getting back in before the run?

Yes thats the concern,selling and then getting back in.Im more bothered about being out of the space though,so its very likely if gold goes to $1500 il simply top slice my miners by 30%.If they do fall that 30% and anything else iv earned in the time will go back in,if not the 70% will carry on and be kept until at least 2025.

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21 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Playtech i bought some shares at £4.20 and i have "ladders" to buy if their shares hit £3.70,£3.30,£2.90.If they dont il only own one amount.I always use ladders in anything i buy,though not always equal amounts.If i want £10k in a stock i might go £4k,£2k,£2k,£2k etc.

I tend to do my buying at what i consider cycle turns,and i have no way of timing buys and find ladder buying in stocks i already consider cheap works out best for me.Of course if someone was putting £1k into each stock then laddering isnt worth it really due to costs.

A way round laddering in smaller amounts is regular investing. Obviously exchnge the £10 trading fee for some timing contraints though but might strike a balance for some. Also as we've mentioned before freetrade could prove useful for people wanting to build positions in smaller amounts.

Edited by A_P

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Just now, A_P said:

A way round laddering in smaller amounts is regular investing. Obviously exchnge the £10 trading fee for some timing contraints though but might strike a balance for some. Also as we've mentioned before freetrade could proove useful for people wanting to build positions in smaller amounts.

Some platforms offer a stock builder type account with monthly fees of £2 per trade. Might be good for smaller amounts.

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Just now, Bobthebuilder said:

Some platforms offer a stock builder type account with monthly fees of £2 per trade. Might be good for smaller amounts.

Yeah that's what I mean, they seem to range from £1-£2 depending on your broker. THe only downside is you're restricted to a specific day of the month. Which could easily move against you as much as it could go in your favour. I could envisage Freetrade being a good middle ground for people too. Once positions become sizeable can then transfer to another broker if they want.

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in case you dont subscribe to moneyvator, an OCF breakdown including some of the mentioned gold ETC's are listed hither;

https://monevator.com/low-cost-index-trackers/

tel's latest thoughts also, i know it contains pretty much unloved stocks on this forum, but it has performed pretty well, the future is however where it will die unless old tel switches it about, highly unlikely though.

https://www.fundsmith.co.uk/docs/default-source/analysis---annual-letters/annual-letter-to-shareholders-2018.pdf?sfvrsn=8

Edited by leonardratso

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Interesting tweet the other day from Christians Against Poverty (free debt advice charity), saying they've had their busiest few days in 22 years! We're extremely close to the edge folks, brace positions!

Edited by Barnsey

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15 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Interesting tweet the other day from Christians Against Poverty (free debt advice charity), saying they've had their busiest few days in 22 years! We're extremely close to the edge folks, brace positions!

 

 

 

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On 08/02/2019 at 11:10, kibuc said:

With their gold operations hamstrung by strike action since Nov, with possible contagion to Platinium operations and with Lonmin takeover delayed it has to be Palladium, doesn't it. Is it big enough part of their business to justify +50%  in less tham a month and +70% in less than two? Clearly,  the market thinks it is.

Palladium price is driven mostly by the car industry and I don't think thats a particularly enticing prospect. I think they should use whatever money they made on palladium rally to get their gold house in order.

It's unlike traing any other sector.

 

Worth noting Impala platiunum is up for $1.13-all time low- to $3.24 in 4 months

On 08/02/2019 at 18:28, DurhamBorn said:

Silver to $24+ then down to sub $10.No timescale,its cycle based though id expect within 18 months if it happens.To be honest people have to make their own choices in how to invest.These are roadmaps not trading calls.I dont know myself how il trade this yet,though likely id top slice by 30%.My eye is really on 2025/28.Main point like you say though is not to panic on any falls and to use to top up.The next cycle is looking fantastic for PMs,only the scale is in doubt.

Most PM investors should be up at least 30% now in most stocks from their bottoms,and if they used ladders they could take out the first one now.Apart from that timing is very difficult.I have some miner investments that have taken until today to be up 1%,up 35% from their bottoms.

Even my our PM's are in the black and I'm the worst PM investor I know.

On 09/02/2019 at 20:30, Majorpain said:

Bubble,what bubble.I think the big car co.'s will e at Tesla alive longer term.I've hada couple of short runs on them but no position currently.I think they'll end up worthless personally.

51 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Hadn't seen the stepchange one, oh dear....

And this is before the deluge.

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10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

And this is before the deluge.

EXACTLY...staggering really with record low unemployment and now some signs of wage growth, basically "As good as it gets" yet these two debt charities are getting more calls than the depths of the GFC.

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13 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Interesting tweet the other day from Christians Against Poverty (free debt advice charity), saying they've had their busiest few days in 22 years! We're extremely close to the edge folks, brace positions!

What's their advice?  Neither a borrower nor a lender be?

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28 minutes ago, dgul said:

What's their advice?  Neither a borrower nor a lender be?

xD Very good! I was thinking more along the lines of “When sorrows come, they come not single spies. But in battalions!”

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1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

EXACTLY...staggering really with record low unemployment and now some signs of wage growth, basically "As good as it gets" yet these two debt charities are getting more calls than the depths of the GFC. 

The BOE's 2018 Q4 credit conditions survey had some interesting findings, in a nutshell risky lending is down and defaults are up across the board.

It sounds like you can still get credit easily, but only if you have some collateral for the banks to take if you fail to pay.  The days of paying off debt with more debt are (finally) coming to an end, which ties in nicely with people up s*** creek needing debt help!

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