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DurhamBorn

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

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3 hours ago, macca said:

I've got Siemens shares, They are very expensive but are hugely diversified across many sectors, they pay good divi's

Trains

Hospital 3D body scanners

Turbines/wind/hydro dam

in fact Siemens are the worlds largest producer of energy saving technologies, power generation, transmission and medical diagnosis tech, They work in building automation also and have a place called the crystal opposite the millennium dome where they show off their green technology

I travel on Siemens trains for a portion of my journey to work. Pretty impressive (although I don’t think I’m a converted train spotter just yet).

I’ve been watching the share price for some time. As you say hugely expensive and included in lots of pension funds. I think that in a market crash, Siemens may be hit hard along with other big players once the trading algos sell off. It’s one on my list for after that event.

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

.....and when the Health Service is privatized many will forsake a visit to the doctor until its serious, thus lessening their life expectancy, and ,`Bingo` pension crisis resolved!

You may wonder why the councils give licences to so many chicken shops. I see a majority of some schools kids eating £1.99 lunch time wing and chips deals queuing out the door. Then broken family parents picking there kids up and going into the same chicken shops for dinner.

By killing our younger potential benefit claimers off earlier, and getting as much tax back from cigarettes and alcohol from the benefit claiming parents, it almost seems like it’s planned.

Edited by Sideysid

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Posted (edited)

That Royal Mail chart how low will you go O.o

182506689_2019-03-1408_07_07am.png.d5341ca42eb7185a59c5fa933cf2ceb1.png

Also was reading another story the other day about Hermes will now be offering drivers self employed plus contracts which included holiday pay and a minimum wage wonder how that will start effecting there prices 

 

Also what @sancho panza link to here

E-Commerce is Wiping Out Mall Retailers One by One. Here’s the Data

Department store sales hit a new record low in the data going back to 1992.

E-commerce sales in the fourth quarter soared 12.1% from a year ago to a new record of $132.8 billion 

Edited by DoINeedOne

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10 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

E-Commerce is Wiping Out Mall Retailers One by One. Here’s the Data

Department store sales hit a new record low in the data going back to 1992.

E-commerce sales in the fourth quarter soared 12.1% from a year ago to a new record of $132.8 billion 

Just musing but from an efficiency point of view its a lot cheaper and easier to bulk ship in goods to a central location and have customers come to you than to send out and deliver 1000 low value parcels.

Mike Ashley is no mug, i'm interested to see if he is right down the line and something happens to even the score between online and the high street.

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1 hour ago, MrXxx said:

.....and when the Health Service is privatized many will forsake a visit to the doctor until its serious, thus lessening their life expectancy, and ,`Bingo` pension crisis resolved!

I thought that was the plan behind making getting a GP appointment nearly impossible?

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3 hours ago, MrXxx said:

.....and when the Health Service is privatized many will forsake a visit to the doctor until its serious, thus lessening their life expectancy, and ,`Bingo` pension crisis resolved!

Privatization won't make a shred of difference to what's coming.When you look at US healthcare provision which is mainly private,the inefficiencies are legion.There's evidence of avoidable invasive procedures, overuse of opioids etc etc.When you have so many Drs owing so much money for their education,the end user will have to pay.There's siginifcant evidence that in terms of %age GDP spend,mixed or nationalised healthcare systems are more efficient than privatized systems where oligopolistic practices predominate.

 

Singapore I believe is often held up as an example of how to do it.

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2 hours ago, Sideysid said:

You may wonder why the councils give licences to so many chicken shops. I see a majority of some schools kids eating £1.99 lunch time wing and chips deals queuing out the door. Then broken family parents picking there kids up and going into the same chicken shops for dinner.

By killing our younger potential benefit claimers off earlier, and getting as much tax back from cigarettes and alcohol from the benefit claiming parents, it almost seems like it’s planned.

Taxes on cigarettes are maximised for revenue, it would be innovative if the govt included a calculation that offset the revenue vs the cost of longer periods on pensions.

 

Smokers are a net benefit in terms of tax revenue ie they pay more and die younger.

2 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

That Royal Mail chart how low will you go O.o

182506689_2019-03-1408_07_07am.png.d5341ca42eb7185a59c5fa933cf2ceb1.png

Also was reading another story the other day about Hermes will now be offering drivers self employed plus contracts which included holiday pay and a minimum wage wonder how that will start effecting there prices 

 

 

I think we'll see a lot of the smaller players leave the field over the next few years and then,jsut like in enrgy and telecoms,we'll see prices rise.I won't be buying RMG yet,as my chart work is telling the bottoms not in.DYOR,but definitely one for the future.

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1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

I thought that was the plan behind making getting a GP appointment nearly impossible?

The problem is that the people who find it easiest to get to see the GP are the ones that could probably wait a day or two.If you can sit by the phone at 0830 and press redial you're in.If you're doing the school run or going to work,you're out.

 

Lots of chronic long term problems out there and lots of patients who love a chat and feel lonely.Lots of people who think they need a home visit-thereby possibly depriving those who actually need a home visit or keeping the GP our of office for 40 minutes when they could have seen 4 patients in surgery.

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Posted (edited)

 

21 hours ago, leonardratso said:

is it redt? They been going for a while havent they, used to be 80p back in the day, 3.5p now.

 

 

Couldn't possibly say but I'm definitely not buying yet.........

Edited by janch

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3 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

hahah, i get the pciture, seems to be a lot of sticking and multiple posting last few days.

I just managed to edit the multiple replies:)

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17 hours ago, NogintheNog said:

I have Bluefield Solar Income Fund and Greencoat UK Wind in my portfolio. The dividends are 4-5% and they are up about 15% since I bought them. However they are relatively small chunks of my portfolio.

 

Ta ............Bluefield Solar Income was tipped in the Mail on Sunday last week

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14 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Peak oil,peak credit,peak retirement.....

 

What I mean is that the demogrpahics that will expereince the best retirement have already retired.In no particualr order

1)The finanaical position of many retirees will worsen either via the failure of state funded pensions to keep pace with inflation or private pensions to provide the returns to match their liabilities

2) healthwise,broadly speaking,healthcare will become more unaffordable both for nation states and for individuals.The number of treatments is expanding and the ability of ANY  healthcare system to handle the complex comorbities that are now presenting has to be called into question.At some pioint younger demogrpahics will realise that they're paying for healthcare and pension benefits they will never enjoy.

 

Thanks for reply SP, I don't want to appear pedantic but I just didn't see peak oil (a finite resources) being in the same category as peak retirement (a social construct). My thoughts are that free markets (in the mode of Adam Smith) are efficient/natural, but the economics strata on top is a manufactured system (and with money/credit creation some might say it even veers off into voodoo). So for me, retirement provision problems along with automation/job decimation and the subsequent lower household income, is how ideas like Universal (national?) Basic (whatever 'basic' might mean) Income come into play. But even these concepts are not new with 'negative income tax' being the forerunner idea mooted back in the 70's. 

Anyway it is the remit of our so called 'leaders' to create new policies to solve these social economic problems. But hopefully with a renewed focus on the real economy (not financial economy), along with massive spending projects like sending wo/man to Mars and other infrastructure - I don't see what choice they have but to seriously tackle future healthcare cost crises. Probably it will end up being a hybrid solution, insurance based with individuals risk assessed so encouraging healthy lifestyles else premiums go up, along with top ups available for those who want more services, like France (not the dreaded US model).

None of this is meant to appear mere idle utopian thinking - Its an attempt to think practically in regard investment choices. i.e. with reduced household incomes, brands will be hit so not a growth area, in fact this is showing up already with a 25% and increasing of Walmart's turnover now derived from its own brands. Similarly I think healthcare research and treatments will be an ever larger part of economy, possibly most new jobs will be in this sector. But as ever knowing what's coming is advantageous, however deciding how to invest is more complicated.                  

 

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5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Taxes on cigarettes are maximised for revenue, it would be innovative if the govt included a calculation that offset the revenue vs the cost of longer periods on pensions.

 

Smokers are a net benefit in terms of tax revenue ie they pay more and die younger.

I think we'll see a lot of the smaller players leave the field over the next few years and then,jsut like in enrgy and telecoms,we'll see prices rise.I won't be buying RMG yet,as my chart work is telling the bottoms not in.DYOR,but definitely one for the future.

Thats exactly what is going to happen.Everyone is pricing these sort of companies looking backwards and thinking that kind of cycle is forever.Dis-inflation hits them hard as it does telcos and energy as you say.Royal Mail is worth 4x its price once a little bit of inflation gets into its pricing and the competition gets washed away/and/or has no choice but to increase prices.I hope the market keeps pushing these sort of companies down so i can keep laddering in.People really have forgot all about inflation and its affects.

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1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

The journalistic equivalent of the proverbial shoeshine.

 

 

yay, just had a quick look at their SP over last 5 years, rose 20% over that time, nice of them to tip them at the top.

(watch the fucker go up another 2000% now ive said that).

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39 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thats exactly what is going to happen.Everyone is pricing these sort of companies looking backwards and thinking that kind of cycle is forever.Dis-inflation hits them hard as it does telcos and energy as you say.Royal Mail is worth 4x its price once a little bit of inflation gets into its pricing and the competition gets washed away/and/or has no choice but to increase prices.I hope the market keeps pushing these sort of companies down so i can keep laddering in.People really have forgot all about inflation and its affects.

I think stamp prices have seen a little bit of inflation already.

1st class 67p last year when inflation adjusted since 1989 would have been 41p

_100569500_stamps-first-nc.png

 

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Just now, Democorruptcy said:

I think stamp prices have seen a little bit of inflation already.

1st class 67p last year when inflation adjusted since 1989 would have been 41p

_100569500_stamps-first-nc.png

 

Yes a bit like the tobacco market.Price increases run faster than the falling use.The big area will be parcels though.RM has struggled to push up parcel prices due to competition and also the likes of Amazon.Amazon wont be as able to cover losses in the next cycle as equity holders wake up to the fact they are funding every purchase.

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22 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes a bit like the tobacco market.Price increases run faster than the falling use.The big area will be parcels though.RM has struggled to push up parcel prices due to competition and also the likes of Amazon.Amazon wont be as able to cover losses in the next cycle as equity holders wake up to the fact they are funding every purchase.

The Royal Mail Business country zone sort pricing is ridiculous. I can send 2KG, insured for £200 for £3 on a 24 hour service for UK. Internationally we can send to Australia from £1.09.. They recently reduced their business parcel pricing further, which was a nice surprise. 

S

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Posted (edited)

Fourth time lucky for the FTSE?  Could very well be.

Capture.thumb.PNG.45fff561cb31680bb246470773d370c8.PNG

At a very big stretch, may even have the mother of all inverse H&S!

PS:  S&P also at fourth time resistance.

PPS: But then if we were to have a choppy (sawtooth) period, now would be a good time to head down (for the S&P at least, given likely non-Brexit cheer in the UK).

Edited by Harley

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14 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

One can reduce ingesting the toxins in chicken, meat by going vegetarian, but how do you avoid the microplastic in the water

Well 70 % of our insects have died due to pesticides spayed all over our fruit and veg.. There was also a piece on correlation between insect population and areas where farming pesticides are sprayed.

Without insects pollination cant take place, with pesticides then chemicals enter into food, soil, water table..

Population increase increases pressure on farming and around and around we go until we start seeing food shortages..

As fertile land on the earth decreases every year and population rises that will not be long.

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38 minutes ago, macca said:

Well 70 % of our insects have died due to pesticides spayed all over our fruit and veg.. There was also a piece on correlation between insect population and areas where farming pesticides are sprayed.

Without insects pollination cant take place, with pesticides then chemicals enter into food, soil, water table..

Population increase increases pressure on farming and around and around we go until we start seeing food shortages..

As fertile land on the earth decreases every year and population rises that will not be long.

Yep.

Truth is Macca in the long term we are all dead.

The planet isn't fubar yet but will be for sure.

I'm gonna have another beer, cheers all.

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16 hours ago, macca said:

Well 70 % of our insects have died due to pesticides spayed all over our fruit and veg.. There was also a piece on correlation between insect population and areas where farming pesticides are sprayed.

Without insects pollination cant take place, with pesticides then chemicals enter into food, soil, water table..

Population increase increases pressure on farming and around and around we go until we start seeing food shortages..

As fertile land on the earth decreases every year and population rises that will not be long.

In the UK I reckon we could go high intensity mixed polytunnel farming and produce and awful lot more produce locally. It would be more expensive but the volume would far outstrip monoculture - fresh produce over an extended growing season together with fish from aquaponics which are at the same time producing some of the key nutrients to feed the plants. Would it happen - with the policies in place and the  monopolisation of land very little chance, we'd have to be at the point of major shortages until plan put in place to diversify.

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