Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

Recommended Posts

20 hours ago, leonardratso said:

on average i reckon the normal person is probably fine to get along with, its just the outliers that are cunts.

Exactly,most have been great,and we are with them,one i even drove up and picked up at the airport who was moving to the area .Most are relationship breakdowns where they have no capital etc and renting a whole place means they have little left.Renting a room means they can get back on their feet quit easily.The house has all mod cons as well,its a good deal.The fact we can sling them out is also a bonus,we would never ever do that to anyone unless they take the piss.We only had two bad ones.One seemed to be a scammer who got funny with my partner so two of my mates slung him out so it wouldnt come back on me,the other rented a room then moved in his brother and his mate,at least they started staying every night on the sofa.We give him a few warnings but he ignored us so i slung him out.They were taking lots of drugs etc.The other tenant at the time was spot on.Apart from those two most have been great and got on really well with them.Only other problems were a couple who were really scruffy,but they moved out anyway.

1 hour ago, Sideysid said:

My daughters birthday is this week, she likes unicorns so I’ve got her this 10oz Queens Beast coin which she wanted.

Certainly better than plastic shit that will never get played with and will eventually go in the bin. For Christmas she requested a children’s metal detector so she can with me whenever we go down to the beach in the holidays.

Think she takes after me.

184BF319-CF0A-4037-9B6C-C72CC159B806.png

Love those.Perfect gift if you ask me.Reminded me i want some more of the queens beasts coins.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 11.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
10 hours ago, MrXxx said:

Very true, if they mess you around there is no requirement for a notice period...they can be asked to pack and leave...no need for expensive/tiresome court action or worry about illegal eviction...i think this is why some people let out a house where they have their `office`

Its exactly why ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Sideysid said:

My daughters birthday is this week, she likes unicorns so I’ve got her this 10oz Queens Beast coin which she wanted.

Certainly better than plastic shit that will never get played with and will eventually go in the bin. For Christmas she requested a children’s metal detector so she can with me whenever we go down to the beach in the holidays.

Think she takes after me.

 

A lovely gift....I assume she's aware it's worth rather more than it's denominated value of £10!  :) 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, stokiescum said:

Didn’t realize you could do that 

If the landlord `lives` in the house and the other tenants do not have exclusive use of the bathroom they are lodgers, not tenants...so no AST.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

If the landlord `lives` in the house and the other tenants do not have exclusive use of the bathroom they are lodgers, not tenants...so no AST.

Its best to sign up to spareroom.com and pay for the legal pack,it contains the contracts for lodgers and they are watertight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

UnconventionalWisdom
4 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Why can't we lower interest rates? Though it's very unlikely we lower them as much as the US will.

Also if they can print for the economy apart from banks, why won't that add to wage increases? Wage increases enables people to borrow more.

I think historically 5% drop has been needed to stimulate the economy. So we will drop, but it could not have much of an effect. 

Wages will increase if they print for infrastructure projects etc. But at the same time, if a recession has hit and it hits the overpriced housing, there is less leverage in the system. People are also less likely to overstretch themselves and the whole thing leads to more house price reductions. Sentiment is everything. 

I hope it pans out like this, but it's just an opinion. Could well go like the past ten years and people think houses are the only place to store their wealth. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Thorn said:

 

And what have these lads found out I wonder?

It is worth pointing out that hedge-funds sometimes actually use hedging.  The interesting thing would then be what is the other side of the trade.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
5 hours ago, Thorn said:
6 hours ago, Durabo said:

http://www.cityam.com/275512/hudge-funds-take-out-86m-bets-against-british-gas-owner

Big short positions taken out against both SSE and Centrica 

5 hours ago, Thorn said:

 

And what have these lads found out I wonder?

Well we' had a mild winter, so in theory SSE and CNA share price would suffer...?

now going into spring, shouldn't be any upside in their shares ?  FTSE up yesterday and

well well well...SSE and CNA DOWN!

However this is logical thinking and markets ain't like that most of the time!

It will be interesting to see how LOW... SSE goes as i don't own any yet, so this will be a GREAT buying opportunity!

BUT...i own CNA  started buying at 1.89 DOH! :o ...only just bought more @ 1.21 ! xD...now their 1.13 ...i'll buy my last bundle when they go to a quid!:Old:

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, Durabo said:

http://www.cityam.com/275512/hudge-funds-take-out-86m-bets-against-british-gas-owner

Big short positions taken out against both SSE and Centrica

My fledgling portfolio is looking a little sick at present...........Centrica is my worst performing share so far :(.  I seem to remember DB saying he expects  a drop of around 15% before a turn in these defensive stocks.  I hope it's soon...................I can't afford "ladders" so the amount I put in is it unless one of my miners suddenly takes off:D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lightscribe

Well 100% of this months ISA allocation will go into Centrica, been averaging down in VOD in recent months since my PM miners have started to run, but VOD looks to have bottomed there for the moment, so now I’ll be reverting it to Centrica.

Could all find further bottoms in once the markets turn however, but I’m happy averaging in at this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Sideysid said:

Well 100% of this months ISA allocation will go into Centrica, been averaging down in VOD in recent months since my PM miners have started to run, but VOD looks to have bottomed there for the moment, so now I’ll be reverting it to Centrica.

Could all find further bottoms in once the markets turn however, but I’m happy averaging in at this point.

Whilst equities are moving downwards why not keep it in a cash isa and transfer across/buy when it bottoms out (or is nearer the bottom)?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lightscribe
12 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

Whilst equities are moving downwards why not keep it in a cash isa and transfer across/buy when it bottoms out (or is nearer the bottom)?

Because I don’t know where that bottom is.

But historical lows since 1999 are good enough for me to average in on in large, infrastructure based, dividend paying established companies.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

leonardratso
1 minute ago, Sideysid said:

Because I don’t know where that bottom is.

But historical lows since 1999 are good enough for me to average in on in large, infrastructure based, dividend paying established companies.

zero is the bottom.

Im getting less enamoured with centrica, it seems to have no bottom the rate it can drop at.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Screen-Shot-2019-04-01.png?itok=ITnGCZ5A

Global-Germany-PMI-2019-04-01.png

Ok, there is always a possibility that we could get the melt up to end all melt ups to catch the trendline but............

1. Its 10 years on from 2008

2. Germany/South Korean manufacturing exports are in deep trouble.  China's look better but they lie constantly, are they actually real or are they in the crap too??!!

3. Only China/Japan are actively printing, though ECB is very close to following. 

There is of course nothing to stop the stock market going to the moon whilst the real economy burns, proper alice in wonderland stuff though.  Saying that my current theory is that MMT has lead to a reversal in the markets invisible hand, demand increases lead to price decreases and demand decreases lead to price increases.  There is too much capacity and there is way too much debt betting on that capacity having a profitable future, banks would rather keep bad loans ticking over paying interest rather than book the losses (see Italy for starters).  If turnover starts to drop off they need to increase prices to pay the debt interest.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
8 hours ago, leonardratso said:

zero is the bottom.

Im getting less enamoured with centrica, it seems to have no bottom the rate it can drop at.

Have to agree with ya mate, i sometimes wonder if Centrica could turn out like ...Marconi ? :o

Still I would NEVER bet the house on this one! With that said...

When a stocks in dire straits...its usually shrewd to BUY!B|

@DurhamBorn What do you think?

 

On another note...

"Highest food inflation in over five years – index"

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/highest-food-inflation-over-five-230100811.html

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Screen-Shot-2019-04-01.png?itok=ITnGCZ5A

Global-Germany-PMI-2019-04-01.png

Ok, there is always a possibility that we could get the melt up to end all melt ups to catch the trendline but............

1. Its 10 years on from 2008

2. Germany/South Korean manufacturing exports are in deep trouble.  China's look better but they lie constantly, are they actually real or are they in the crap too??!!

3. Only China/Japan are actively printing, though ECB is very close to following. 

There is of course nothing to stop the stock market going to the moon whilst the real economy burns, proper alice in wonderland stuff though.  Saying that my current theory is that MMT has lead to a reversal in the markets invisible hand, demand increases lead to price decreases and demand decreases lead to price increases.  There is too much capacity and there is way too much debt betting on that capacity having a profitable future, banks would rather keep bad loans ticking over paying interest rather than book the losses (see Italy for starters).  If turnover starts to drop off they need to increase prices to pay the debt interest.

But surely that hypothesis is only applicable where the provider has a monopoly (or a consortium is price fixing Ie OPEC), otherwise your fitter competitor will try to price you out of the market.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Transistor Man
4 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Have to agree with ya mate, i sometimes wonder if Centrica could turn out like ...Marconi ? :o

 

I'm not sure there's much in common. Marconi was caught up in the high tech bubble in the run-up to 2000, then missed out on a big BT contract to upgrade the UK network.  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lightscribe
13 hours ago, leonardratso said:

zero is the bottom.

Im getting less enamoured with centrica, it seems to have no bottom the rate it can drop at.

Lots of things in the mix here, incompetent management board, wasting money in wrong areas, possible Shell takeover, dividend suspension (I’m all for this to reduce debt and restructuring etc)

I think a lot of short positions will close if it heads down below £1.

Yes there’s risk but as been stated before on here, once the financial headwinds hit, then a lot of the smaller players will be wiped out and leave us at the mercy of the bigger fish for our ever increasing energy demands.

For me the risk at current prices is worth a small percentage allocation in my ISA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, MrXxx said:

But surely that hypothesis is only applicable where the provider has a monopoly (or a consortium is price fixing Ie OPEC), otherwise your fitter competitor will try to price you out of the market. 

Your assuming that there are many fit competitors left, keeping the zombie companies afloat in 2008 has lead to a general weakening of everyone in the market. If you want to increase turnover you need more trading cash and the only way the majority in my industry have done that is invoice finance/overdrafts, not making more cash.  Its coming back to bite now though, construction wise the banks are withdrawing from the market as fast as possible and sending even nominally stronger businesses under.  Since SME lending rates are 6-8% the banks used to love it because they made a killing. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...