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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

$26 only the first target Harley when il sell 30% of my holdings.I expect a pull back between $26 and $28.If not the 70% can run on.Then target is $37 on the GDX.Id probably sell a lot then.

I look forward to comparing outcomes (not that you've disclosed your system).  I might end up doing something similar (looking at the charts) but from a specific TA momentum POV which involves me selling in three lots.  Although for once managing to successfully trade GDX would be a career high!

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1 hour ago, billfunk said:

This is why I am not too concerned about Brexit happening. The dodgy money system will force individual nations apart. Does the average Greek feel like a fully integrated, equal citizen of the EU as, say, a German? I don't think so. And there is only so much Technocrats can do to hold populations in check.

Italy went exgrowth in 94.

Banks, debt etc etc are all down to that.

A countries bank give you a turbo charge position on a countries economies.

Italys are deep in shit because the economy is and has been in shit for over 20 years.

Id guess the uk takes more payroll taxes from italian under 40s then italy does.

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6 hours ago, Sideysid said:

So it looks as though the Fed is re-starting QE.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/operating_policy_190530

Is this the point in your roadmap DB, where we’ll  see this shit show kick off?

I dont think it is.

This is money from the Tarp. They want shot.

Too complex to give it back to tax payers so theyll drop it in bonds.

Theres nothing i hear from tge us that points to any slowdown, Trump boost apart, the us economy is still red hot.

 

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sancho panza
16 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

Blimey. I’d not picked up on the likes of EasyJet, etc. What’s going on ? Margins  collapsed across sectors. Looks like bloodbath on the consumer?

Margins are dropping I suspect but also we're likely seeing insiders or those experienced investors with knowledge sellinjg.

It's no coincidence that travel stocks dropped ahead of the 08 crisis.Other sectors such as housebuilders were laready well into their bear market drops byt the time Northern Rock went under.A lot of dip buyers are masking the fact that we're likely in a bear market where those in the know are offloading to those who aren't.I'm not in the know myself,but as we've discussed on here,some sectors are already waving massive warning signs.The thing with EZY is the speed of it's drop without any significant news to drive it.Very telling imho.

AS a few on here know,I've beens horting housebuilders as and when for a year.Took a bit of a knock in Feb when I went back in too early but gravity has reasserted itself and we're seeing more bear market style price action eg the driops in Bovis and RDW.

Look at retail.so many shares all on the floor.This hasn't been a proper bull market for a year or two in terms of the FTSE

13 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

@sancho panza This comment of yours sent me down a very interesting rabbit hole that I'm still not out of.

I thought "well I am a geologist, why have I never properly researched the gold silver ratio??" I can access academic literature, and there is way more published on it than I thought. There are entire journals on resource scarcity.

I promise I'll report back in full, but early findings are that despite gold:silver ratio in the earth being much lower, this clearly doesn't correlate with price. How could it - exploration/production cycles are too long, and the price is distorted by paper. Hardly an efficient market.

Second is that gold production has already peaked, but silver hasn't yet. Along with the base metals, likely to peak in the mid 20s (or when @DurhamBorn is seeing a price squeeze in the sector!). So gold supply actuslly seems to be tighter at the moment, perhaps this is showing up in a widening ratio. I think this is only as long as central banks are buying and hosrding, as gold doesn't go away. Thats a key difference with silver. More relative mine production now, but less available later.

Third, gold mining has gone very low grade. All the high grade stuff is mine and in vaults already. I am now more inclined now to buy "gold in the ground" companies like Harmony...because there isn't much high quality gold in the ground. I need to do some DD, but companies with high quality ores are more likeky to explode.

Fourth, the above comments are around present production. This is as distinct from discovery rates. Shockingly, these seem to have peaked c.40 years ago, which is the usual lag time for production to peak (oil is shorter, but I am very familiar with how resources follow gaussisn distribution. There is no going back up that curve, apart from the odd wibble like shale oil. Will we similarly mine the sea for gold I wonder?)

There is some stuff on price I need to look at further, but one interesting system dynamic type model shows silver should be around $25 in 2020, rather than $15 (sound familiar, @DurhamBorn?!)

The short heads up is

a) I see fundamental factors that correlate to DBs market/liquidity/proce roadmaps

b) the price ratio is not going to 12:1 any time soon, unless in a speculative mania. But I don't think 90:1 is right either. If silver is 80% underpriced around now, 50:1 or so sounds aboyt right 

c) there is tightness in gold supply I wasnt aware of. Ive always worried about central bank dumping, but if that has strategically shifted, gold is more attractive to me now.

I have gold miners but all my physical is silver. I'll be getting some gold physical too.

Some thought provoking aspects to your post.Would like to hear your full conclusions.Every time I see that chart it shouts 'mean reversion' to me.Tyring to explain it's current state takes a good understanding fo the business that I dont have.

 

Absolutely fascinating insights that make sense now you mention them.Given it looks like gold price is staying where it is -AISC across the industry supports that thesis,then inherently that implies silver needs to rise but as you say while people are digging up base metals and copper for china means excess supply.

We already hold a lot of gold miners but I'm looking to add some silver miners this week.SIL is still low historically.

9 hours ago, Sideysid said:

Funnily enough just come back from Krakow two days ago. I’d be willing to place a decent bet that BA would be one of those two.

I’ve seen a lot first hand of the cut backs they’ve done on staff contracts, automation and service. Hand-baggage only fares, with a paid for M&S food service onboard can now cost rival the likes of Easyjet and Ryanair. They have the better slots and can bully out the competition. Even the air miles redemptions have got more stringent. Yes they may have massive overheads, but I think a lot of the smaller/less established airlines will go under.

Agreed on the latter but I would argue that BA is a pension fund deficit with an airline attached.I think it's more likely the efficient new players like EZY  will pick up the bits of BA worth having-trasnatlantic slots fro  Heathrow.

Great thread on the other site years ago on the industry started by Carribean beuaty

Thousands Of Airline Job Losses

https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/80028-thousands-of-airline-job-losses/

 

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Shit show already underway,the UK is already well through its bear market in a lot of stocks.Only a few mega caps and hugely over valued stuff masking the declines.The interesting thing is how quick stocks iv been wanting have fallen to my ladder points.The question is were my ladder points set too high to start with?.i cant know that yet,but most of the stocks im buying need to go down between 50% and 75% to hit all my ladder points and i should be down around 11% if that happens before dividends.Id be happy with that situation.The question then is inflation.If we dont get any then the portfolio im building will likely struggle,and it might also take another whack in a big sell off.This bear market looks like it is going sector by sector though and it is possible sectors turn while the index carries on down.

All i can say is i liquidated my 27 year old portfolio at the right time.The stocks im buying that i think the next cycle will favour are down mostly 40% before i start to buy and can see 70% falls with me down around 11%-15%.If they do then turn a couple of years divis should see the turn at 70% falls a break even level.The risk is we see 90% falls and that would mean a cutting in half of what im buying.Thats one of the reasons i went back into employment.Two years wages (i save 90%) would equal a lot of the falls and most of those wages has now been deployed into rubber band silver miners and gold miners.Iv covered as many angles as possible really and accept that might not be enough.

Aaside from PM miners/CNA/VOD/some long term holds eg BP we're not buying yet.My watch list is growing.

I think we'll get price inflation as distncit from credit inflation.The difference may not matter much at the minute as all the printing has been accompanied by drops in velocity effectively sterilising the money printing,but once people start to fear their money is devlauing,it will lift off I suspect.But and it's a rather big but,it could be accompanied by credit deflation.The worst of both worlds but central banks will reap what they have sewn.

Stocks are historically a great inflation hedge-as is property.

4 hours ago, billfunk said:

This is why I am not too concerned about Brexit happening. The dodgy money system will force individual nations apart. Does the average Greek feel like a fully integrated, equal citizen of the EU as, say, a German? I don't think so. And there is only so much Technocrats can do to hold populations in check.

Going to be interesting.Talking to someone in Spanish property today and they were saying how many banks are sat on repoed hosues with no planning permission.Just sat on them.Thank you ECB...at the same time Spain has 40% youth uneployment............the peripheries may well explode in anger if a credit deflation hits and the banks in Greece,SPain,Itally go.

9 hours ago, Sideysid said:

So it looks as though the Fed is re-starting QE.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/operating_policy_190530

Is this the point in your roadmap DB, where we’ll  see this shit show kick off?

Looks like they're going to redirect money used to purchase MBS's into treasuries.That's not new QE.They're still shrinkign their balance sheet.

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sancho panza

https://www.wsj.com/articles/justice-department-is-preparing-antitrust-investigation-of-google-11559348795

WASHINGTON—The Justice Department is gearing up for an antitrust investigation ofAlphabet Inc.’s Google, a move that could present a major new layer of regulatory scrutiny for the search giant, according to people familiar with the matter.

 

A Justice Department investigation would put Google—and potentially other tech giants—in an unwanted spotlight at a time when major internet companies already have seen their political fortunes turning, both in the U.S. and overseas.

The shift has come with multibillion-dollar antitrust fines for Google from the European Union. Facebook Inc. has come under intense fire over Russian use of its platform to meddle in the 2016 election. Policy makers also are increasingly skeptical of internet companies’ privacy practices, as well as their potential to create other public harm.

Alphabet, Google’s parent, typically is ranked among the world’s five largest firms by market capitalization, nourished by its powerful position in online advertising, a lucrative market that threatens to eclipse other forms of advertising. Along with Facebook, it has become a major player in the complex market. But other firms—notably Amazon.com Inc.—also have begun to compete for the business, raising competitive concerns for Google.

Increasingly, U.S. leaders have begun to question the size and dominance of some of the tech giants.

Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren, a senator from Massachusetts, called for the breakup of the nation’s top tech companies earlier this year, sending tremors through the large field of contenders for the party’s nomination and winning praise from populist liberal activists—as well as from Steve Bannon, a former strategist for President Trump.

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I dotn think budget carriers are a great canary for the coalmine.

One, its a very new model.

Two, carriers have always been boom n bust - they are not what I call normal companies/good investments.

What easy and ryan air how is that no matter the sector, people respond to signals - too many pilots chasing planes, result in in fall of piloc wages. So pilots drop out.

Labour, skilled or not, has a cycle, just like pork or commodities.

*THE* biggest supply cycle has turned - Chinese exports, which dumped on the developed worlds and, due to mercantilism, increased demand by zilch.

The Chinese cheerleading in the business/corp sector ended 12 months ago. Theyve been played. Idiots. US business sentiment is massively anti-China as its slowly dawned on them that Chia is not interested in entering a legal, trading relationship with them - they want the iP -by whatever means - and hen will fuck off. There's no real eman in China to be had - CCP wants it all.

So now the West has to restart building its supply chains up, in the West.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Talking Monkey
1 hour ago, spygirl said:

I dotn think budget carriers are a great canary for the coalmine.

One, its a very new model.

Two, carriers have always been boom n bust - they are not what I call normal companies/good investments.

What easy and ryan air how is that no matter the sector, people respond to signals - too many pilots chasing planes, result in in fall of piloc wages. So pilots drop out.

Labour, skilled or not, has a cycle, just like pork or commodities.

*THE* biggest supply cycle has turned - Chinese exports, which dumped on the developed worlds and, due to mercantilism, increased demand by zilch.

The Chinese cheerleading in the business/corp sector ended 12 months ago. Theyve been played. Idiots. US business sentiment is massively anti-China as its slowly dawned on them that Chia is not interested in entering a legal, trading relationship with them - they want the iP -by whatever means - and hen will fuck off. There's no real eman in China to be had - CCP wants it all.

So now the West has to restart building its supply chains up, in the West.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It has taken them ages to figure this out, it was clear to see all along what China was up to

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Just now, Talking Monkey said:

It has taken them ages to figure this out, it was clear to see all along what China was up to

Yesn No.

Broadly since WW2 every country the US has engaged with has traded - they buy, US sells.

Sure, it goes out of whack sometime- see Japan Plaza accord 85.

Broadly ittends to balance out - Europe buys US semiconducters, US buys wines and holidays here.

Not only is scale of CHinas pop ouitside of anythign seen before, the way its traded has been pure bent i.e. not in good faith.

Despite the chunters from the SJW the US sees trade as a good thing is preprepared to throw low ned jobs inthe US on the fire to give a poor country a hand - see clothing.

And, despite what they, US does not commit whole industrial espionage.

Equivalent to CHian would be Trumps relatives running a huge telecoms company and Trump directing the CIA to steal everything from Nokia.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

It boils down to the rule of law I think. Everyone is shit scared of the US dept justice. Foreign or domestic. Ni matter who you are there is a risk of being thrown into one of their hell holes and the key thrown away. Americans know this, and it tempers the worst excesses of natual self interest. Similar in the UK, more humane of course, but I was pleasantly delighted to see politicians jailed here fir expenses fraud. Woyld never happen in my country.

In fact I'd wager China decided on the forced tech transfer policy becsuse of the DOJ. Couldnt risk nicking anything (wholesale) on US soil so just play on greed and get western tech built in China. I bet Mrs Huawei regrets transferring planes in Canada. DOJ has long arms.

When all this blows up the likes of the UK and USA will still be standing, and thriving, because of the rule of law (I do hope they jail more white collar criminals this time though). Who in their right mind would trust their money or their property rights to China? I don't understand why more emerging markets don't implement strong systems, they would hoover up capital.

There's legal process and separation of the legal system and the executive.

As far as China goes, if you signan NDA with company A, then the tech crops up in company B, as the ultimate owenr is the CCP, who's say so trumps any commercial law or anything.

Its like Trump being CEO of Apple.

 

 

 

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DurhamBorn
8 hours ago, spygirl said:

I dotn think budget carriers are a great canary for the coalmine.

One, its a very new model.

Two, carriers have always been boom n bust - they are not what I call normal companies/good investments.

What easy and ryan air how is that no matter the sector, people respond to signals - too many pilots chasing planes, result in in fall of piloc wages. So pilots drop out.

Labour, skilled or not, has a cycle, just like pork or commodities.

*THE* biggest supply cycle has turned - Chinese exports, which dumped on the developed worlds and, due to mercantilism, increased demand by zilch.

The Chinese cheerleading in the business/corp sector ended 12 months ago. Theyve been played. Idiots. US business sentiment is massively anti-China as its slowly dawned on them that Chia is not interested in entering a legal, trading relationship with them - they want the iP -by whatever means - and hen will fuck off. There's no real eman in China to be had - CCP wants it all.

So now the West has to restart building its supply chains up, in the West.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exactly right Spy.Im closing my importing business as we speak,im selling off the last stock and that will mean all capital pulled out in about another 3 months.Then end contracts on my storage with one months notice.China cannot produce cheap anymore in anything worth more than say £20.I set it up when i saw employers sacking people and moving production to China.Back then i could buy for £20 and sell for £70.Now i can buy for £44 and sell for £54 and i have almost zero overheads as i do everything myself.You hear a lot of talk of retail pain because of online etc and that is true,but a lot is to do with margins being crushed.The survivors will be discounters paying 8% or less of turnover in rent.

I did intend to work for perhaps 2 years then go back to simply making the tax allowance level on my business,but iv decided im far better off shutting it and getting the last capital out.Trump understands exactly what the Chinese are about.Wont be long before BAE etc are getting some nice big far orders from the likes of Australia,maybe for frigates and destroyers even.

Where im working we are getting lots of work from our factories in China moved to us for the US market etc.China will likely implode and take Europe with it.Us and the Yanks might be where capital flows to,if we are out of the EU by then.

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

I did intend to work for perhaps 2 years then go back to simply making the tax allowance level on my business,but iv decided im far better off shutting it and getting the last capital out.Trump understands exactly what the Chinese are about.Wont be long before BAE etc are getting some nice big far orders from the likes of Australia,maybe for frigates and destroyers even.

Where im working we are getting lots of work from our factories in China moved to us for the US market etc.China will likely implode and take Europe with it.Us and the Yanks might be where capital flows to,if we are out of the EU by then.

BAE already has orders for 32 Type 26 frigates, 8 UK 9 Australia and 15 Canada.  We are paying £1bn per ship so far from cheap.  I bought a reasonable holding in them in the expectation that things will kick off in some way.

My biggest concern is the CCP doesn't want to go silently into the night and goes full communist on the population, they are already putting the surveillance state and social credit score into operation, although thats still reliant on US tech so the blacklisting will be making things difficult.  Hopefully we wont wake up one morning and find its raining ballistic missiles in Taiwan, but history sadly says otherwise.  Nothing like a good war to distract the population.

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sancho panza
12 hours ago, spygirl said:

I dotn think budget carriers are a great canary for the coalmine.

One, its a very new model.

Two, carriers have always been boom n bust - they are not what I call normal companies/good investments.

What easy and ryan air how is that no matter the sector, people respond to signals - too many pilots chasing planes, result in in fall of piloc wages. So pilots drop out.

Labour, skilled or not, has a cycle, just like pork or commodities.

*THE* biggest supply cycle has turned - Chinese exports, which dumped on the developed worlds and, due to mercantilism, increased demand by zilch.

The Chinese cheerleading in the business/corp sector ended 12 months ago. Theyve been played. Idiots. US business sentiment is massively anti-China as its slowly dawned on them that Chia is not interested in entering a legal, trading relationship with them - they want the iP -by whatever means - and hen will fuck off. There's no real eman in China to be had - CCP wants it all.

So now the West has to restart building its supply chains up, in the West.

In terms of your first point,on their own a few bduget carriers going under doesn't matter.It's when you add them to the the list of opther failures eg small energy retialers going belly up, genersal retialers going pop, hosuebuilders turning down,bank shares turning down......that's what I'm saying.Im not looking at EZY and saying it's 2008 all over gaina,but I'm looking at a lot of red flags all starting to be waved.

 

In terms of China,I think you're bang on.Lot of styimulus came from China post 08,they've been gaming their currency for years and they've run into a Western leader ie Trump who has an election to win in 2020 who knows his apples.

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sancho panza

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/deepening-global-inversions-canada-joins-the-club-ONCKDPGa8EmtRNA8Egz-kQ/

Deepening Global Inversions: Canada Joins the Club

 

Yield curve in inversions in Canada widened in response to Trump's impositions of Tariffs on Mexico.

A global recession now seems baked in the cake.

The definition is a bit obscure, however.

Some define a global recession as global growth less than 3.0%. Some say less than 2.5%. And some say it's growth under 2.0%.

I suspect it is irrelevant which definition one uses.

Economic Madness

Global recession talk picked up as Trump Imposes Tariffs on Mexico Over Immigration.

Mexico is the US' third largest trading partner.

These tariffs are madness.

image.png

https://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2019/06/your-friendly-yield-curve-update-yes-of.html

Your friendly yield curve update: Yes, of course this time is different, darling...

 

...whatever makes you think things might be going bad?

 

image.png.26eb4a759ea6bbcbf5d63c856d0312d0.png

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Talking Monkey
3 hours ago, Majorpain said:

BAE already has orders for 32 Type 26 frigates, 8 UK 9 Australia and 15 Canada.  We are paying £1bn per ship so far from cheap.  I bought a reasonable holding in them in the expectation that things will kick off in some way.

My biggest concern is the CCP doesn't want to go silently into the night and goes full communist on the population, they are already putting the surveillance state and social credit score into operation, although thats still reliant on US tech so the blacklisting will be making things difficult.  Hopefully we wont wake up one morning and find its raining ballistic missiles in Taiwan, but history sadly says otherwise.  Nothing like a good war to distract the population.

Interesting viewpoint Major, do you see the potential for China to be greatly diminished in the coming decade, is there that much rot under the covers that has been hidden

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sancho panza
3 hours ago, MvR said:

A long but interesting look at the state of the markets from a TA standpoint.. Covers global indices, bonds, currencies and commodities.

Talks about gold looking good for a breakout at 48:18  -   https://youtu.be/FufIwTv0D5c?t=2898

 

Interesting watch.The guy is a good market historian and does the bascis well.Too many TA types use that many indicators that they emerge with no real plan.A bit like some of those Wolf Richter videos,you need to really listen to get the best from it.

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41 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Interesting viewpoint Major, do you see the potential for China to be greatly diminished in the coming decade, is there that much rot under the covers that has been hidden

The unwritten rule between the CCP and the Chinese people is the CCP can stay in power as long as the people get richer.  That worked great, but 2008 put a slight spanner in the works and things look to have gone downhill since 2016.  Its been pretty much non-stop growth since 1990, boom with no bust leads to malinvestment building up and 30 years of malinvestment will be a problem at some point.  Ok, its a communist regime and they can hide a theoretically unlimited number of bankrupt businesses in state owned.banks and forget about it, but there is an awful lot of hints about to suggest that that approach may not longer be working as well as it did.

Its important not to treat China like a democratic country, its the USSR with a capitalist mask on, but underneath the mask lies everything you would expect in Stalins Russia.  If the economy collapses that mask will come off, and luckily for us i think its coming off before they wanted it to.

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DurhamBorn
On 01/06/2019 at 19:06, Harley said:

I look forward to comparing outcomes (not that you've disclosed your system).  I might end up doing something similar (looking at the charts) but from a specific TA momentum POV which involves me selling in three lots.  Although for once managing to successfully trade GDX would be a career high!

My miners are all topped up now and i also added a new position in CDE Coeur Mining,my actual targets are 28/30 in the GDX (il start selling some at 27).All the moving averages are moving from bearish to bullish.There will likely be pullbacks though to fill the big gaps on the jumps up.We should get some 50% to 100% jumps in some of the rubber band stocks by late December.

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10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

In terms of your first point,on their own a few bduget carriers going under doesn't matter.It's when you add them to the the list of opther failures eg small energy retialers going belly up, genersal retialers going pop, hosuebuilders turning down,bank shares turning down......that's what I'm saying.Im not looking at EZY and saying it's 2008 all over gaina,but I'm looking at a lot of red flags all starting to be waved.

 

In terms of China,I think you're bang on.Lot of styimulus came from China post 08,they've been gaming their currency for years and they've run into a Western leader ie Trump who has an election to win in 2020 who knows his apples.

China has at least one very nasty inteternal revoluation.

It was fine for Deng to stand up and say - Forget politics, we'll make you rich, when most of China was piss poor and scratting for rice for their kid - note the use of singular.

That was 30 odd years ago. Now China as a whole are medium income, but theres probably more rich-rich than Europe combined - thats what you get a in continent rather than country.

And most got rich the CCP way - exploiting the vast supply of Labour and bent connections.

Now what happens whe they loose their job, their real estate falls down either in price of literally collapses due to bbent building.

Or the CCP faisl to make their kid - still singular rich.

CHin just cannot delver growth that the population expects.

 

 

 

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On 01/06/2019 at 09:37, Cattle Prod said:

Third, gold mining has gone very low grade. All the high grade stuff is mine and in vaults already. I am now more inclined now to buy "gold in the ground" companies like Harmony...because there isn't much high quality gold in the ground. I need to do some DD, but companies with high quality ores are more likeky to explode.

I'm not sure how to understand the highlighted part. Are you saying that high-grade miners are more likely to benefit from improving gold prices? My thinking is the exact opposite, so I'd be happy to hear a bit more.

I agree with the "gold in the ground" companies being a good bet for the gold bull. What is essentially dirt at 1250$/oz can become perfectly mineable at 2k$/oz and help increase production or  reserves and LOM. I wonder how much gold Harmony has in the ground at 2-3g/t that isn't included in their resource estimate due to low grades.

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sancho panza

small purple dot at the end is the relevant bit I think.....  @DurhamBorn......I was due to buy some silvies this week (and top up a few Goldie holdings as well-),in terms of rubber bands are there any names you'd offer as 'need to consider' at the minute.My spray n pray list for today/this week is as follows

Already own Alexco,Hecla(?),Couer,Endeavour,

Looking to add,PAAS,HOCM,SSR,Fortuna,Silvercorp,Great panther,

 

Obviously,don't feel you have to comment and it's DYOR as ever.

SI.png

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sancho panza
3 hours ago, kibuc said:

I'm not sure how to understand the highlighted part. Are you saying that high-grade miners are more likely to benefit from improving gold prices? My thinking is the exact opposite, so I'd be happy to hear a bit more.

I agree with the "gold in the ground" companies being a good bet for the gold bull. What is essentially dirt at 1250$/oz can become perfectly mineable at 2k$/oz and help increase production or  reserves and LOM. I wonder how much gold Harmony has in the ground at 2-3g/t that isn't included in their resource estimate due to low grades.

Yeah,HMY has been on my top up list while I was watching GDX notch lower over the last month then up 8% friday ..........when this sector runs,it runs.

14 hours ago, Majorpain said:

The unwritten rule between the CCP and the Chinese people is the CCP can stay in power as long as the people get richer.  That worked great, but 2008 put a slight spanner in the works and things look to have gone downhill since 2016.  Its been pretty much non-stop growth since 1990, boom with no bust leads to malinvestment building up and 30 years of malinvestment will be a problem at some point.  Ok, its a communist regime and they can hide a theoretically unlimited number of bankrupt businesses in state owned.banks and forget about it, but there is an awful lot of hints about to suggest that that approach may not longer be working as well as it did.

Its important not to treat China like a democratic country, its the USSR with a capitalist mask on, but underneath the mask lies everything you would expect in Stalins Russia.  If the economy collapses that mask will come off, and luckily for us i think its coming off before they wanted it to.

Super analysis MP.I think when the 1% started taking their lucre out to canda and Oz instead of reinvesting it in the Ponzi,the timeline for the night of long knives drew closer.

Their shadow banking system is a mess,and noone knows where the liabilities are I suspect.

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29 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Countrywide Plc

LONDON: CWD.L (GBp)

 3.870.27 (-6.52%)

Was around 55 roughly this time last year

 

Just a flesh wound.

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