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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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5 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

Largest silver producer going down while silver is going up. That's a bit depressing, considering it's my largest PM holding. 

When silver goes up its the marginal players who do best,the stronger companies lag in the first few stages.Endeavour are up about 30% in three days for example.

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Eventually Right

GDXJ looking like it might touch $40 tonight, up over 40% since the end of May.

I have a vague recollection from the beginning of the year, of you saying May/June was when gold and the miners might start to trend DB-superb call, last couple of months have been ridiculous...

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Bobthebuilder
5 minutes ago, Eventually Right said:

GDXJ looking like it might touch $40 tonight, up over 40% since the end of May.

I have a vague recollection from the beginning of the year, of you saying May/June was when gold and the miners might start to trend DB-superb call, last couple of months have been ridiculous...

We will have to see how all this pans out, but if i was Durham Born i would be looking for a publishing deal for a book release. Its already quite an amazing story.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

Sold my IBTL this morning, (small profit - didn't have a big holding) as the 1year chart was pointing to TOP resistance, also ALL the news in the media about how f**ked the £ sterling is...and how lovely juberly strong the dollar is, made my sell signal, would that be correct to say if the dollar started to WEAKEN then IBTL would go down?

As i write GOLD UP + $25 ...Yahoo!!!:Jumping:

BTW, got some reduced "assorted choclate mix" today @ 10p a bag, i've just scoffed 3/4 of the bag while on the net, bloody-hell my guts are churning ...looks like a trip to the toilet VERY soon for some major trowing-upO.o ...

image.thumb.jpeg.efba1609da4c297b954242319e090df0.jpeg

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24 minutes ago, Eventually Right said:

GDXJ looking like it might touch $40 tonight, up over 40% since the end of May.

I have a vague recollection from the beginning of the year, of you saying May/June was when gold and the miners might start to trend DB-superb call, last couple of months have been ridiculous...

My rubber band stocks have gone gangbusters ER.Really pleased it worked out well for people.People i work with are going to get some bad news tomorrow about their jobs.Oblivious to the macro situation most of them are in a terrible situation finance wise,, while iv banked 6 years living expenses from the miners while iv been there.This thread has fantastic people adding to it all the time,i hope it will remain a place for everyone to enjoy and remain as it is now.We have delivered stage one,next we move through a debt deflation and then the reflation.Lots of financial dislocation to come.,its me who should say thankyou to everyone for coming onto the thread and keeping it civil and friendly.

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31 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

We have delivered stage one,next we move through a debt deflation and then the reflation.

I've booked some nice profits too. I'm still expecting gold and GDX to go higher before they turn, but I can't be certain of that, so I've actually sold all the gold miners in my ISA, and sold the first tranche of some GDX options I bought earlier this year.  20 September 27 calls which I paid $10.50 a contract for, and sold for $209 a contract.. almost a 20 bagger.  I've got 3 more tranches in GDX at higher strike prices and longer expirations, but the sale of the first tranche has covered the cost of all these, plus my long SPY, DIA, and SLV options.

Overall, my ISA is up 20%.. half in cash, half in silver miners, utilities, transports and tobacco.  My speculative options account is somewhat smaller, but up 150% with my initial stake returned to cash, and the rest in out-of-the-money options hoping for the melt-up.

So thank you DB.. I owe you at least a pint by now.

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5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Outside of the PMs the tobacco stocks roaring ahead today and this last week.Looks like some real sector rotation going on now.Saw the So-Called BBC say Brexit would cause a recession,typical rubbish.We are already heading into one.China being hit hard now i expect,very hard,next they will cut imports themselves so the rest of Asia should get whacked as well.As always it took us a few bumps along the road map,but we are hitting the home runs now.My place is getting shot of 50+ tomoz,lots of worry today in there with all those lease cars.

Vod got the go ahead today for the Liberty deal.

 

With interest rates so

low do you think it’s possable to borrow 20k and wait for the big crash then invest it and come out a winner

dont worry im

not thinking of doing it but many might 

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
25 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

My rubber band stocks have gone gangbusters ER.Really pleased it worked out well for people.People i work with are going to get some bad news tomorrow about their jobs.Oblivious to the macro situation most of them are in a terrible situation finance wise,, while iv banked 6 years living expenses from the miners while iv been there.This thread has fantastic people adding to it all the time,i hope it will remain a place for everyone to enjoy and remain as it is now.We have delivered stage one,next we move through a debt deflation and then the reflation.Lots of financial dislocation to come.,its me who should say thankyou to everyone for coming onto the thread and keeping it civil and friendly.

WE also need to THANK @spunkofor making this forum available WITHOUT the annoying ADS & moderating BullSh*t like ToS!

So cheers to ALL here! AND may we ALL prosper!

spacer.png

 

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Keep on saying it but thanks again DB for being there. When you’ve been in the trench keeping your head down it’s amazing to see someone encouraging and showing a way on. 

Your threads and Everybody from WICAO to Sancho have been amazing to read and got me scanning books, YouTube videos and various websites almost every day. Most of the time not getting it and then suddenly A Penny Drops over something. 

DYOR obviously folks and my posts are absolutely not any sort of investing advice... but... I was a total  and  complete novice... then  I started following the tracker-not-picker way but then bought and sold and kept sort of panic selling then buying  stuff again when it was going down... kept getting twitchy at the passive approach... then started trying to see some TA in it all. 

Anyway here we are watching what is unfolding and it is amazing and a shock to be honest. 

For example... my wee bit of Eldorado is now up 114%. 

So thanks again man- keep it up- there is so much questioning and taking ideas apart to see if they are useful and putting new ideas in that besides my family  this thread and the mulling I do in between reads has become my favorite place in the world. 

I think DB that you might be a very knowledgeable and also extremely generous Seventh Son of a Seventh son. 

Might be a bit long but I think that should be the tile of the book. 

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14 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

My rubber band stocks have gone gangbusters ER.Really pleased it worked out well for people.People i work with are going to get some bad news tomorrow about their jobs.Oblivious to the macro situation most of them are in a terrible situation finance wise,, while iv banked 6 years living expenses from the miners while iv been there.This thread has fantastic people adding to it all the time,i hope it will remain a place for everyone to enjoy and remain as it is now.We have delivered stage one,next we move through a debt deflation and then the reflation.Lots of financial dislocation to come.,its me who should say thankyou to everyone for coming onto the thread and keeping it civil and friendly.

Does this include yourself DB? I genuinely feel sorry for those people if they lose their jobs. BUT if they have over extended themselves in ANY way then its hard to feel TOO sorry.
But also a big thanks from me to you and all the regular posters on here. I went in really heavy into the miners/physical/BullionVault, probably more than I should as my reflation stocks wern't reflating (yet). And I'm happy to report as of today I'm WAY up. Thank you.

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2 minutes ago, MvR said:

I've booked some nice profits too. I'm still expecting gold and GDX to go higher before they turn, but I can't be certain of that, so I've actually sold all the gold miners in my ISA, and sold the first tranche of some GDX options I bought earlier this year.  20 September 27 calls which I paid $10.50 a contract for, and sold for £209 a contract.. almost a 20 bagger.  I've got 3 more tranches in GDX at higher strike prices and longer expirations, but the sale of the first tranche has covered the cost of all these, plus my long SPY, DIA, and SLV options.

Overall, my ISA is up 20%.. half in cash, half in silver miners, utilities, transports and tobacco.  My speculative options account is somewhat smaller, but up 150% with my initial stake returned to cash, and the rest in out-of-the-money options hoping for the melt-up.

So thank you DB.. I owe you at least a pint by now.

Thats great,really top investing.ISA looks very nice to build on going forward.

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On 17/07/2019 at 10:20, sancho panza said:

Also,such confidence appears to ignore  existential risk.If the Euro goes pop,will the system be able to handle it? IRD includes Euro  denomintaed interest rate derivatives, a $112trn market. If DB is a chunky player here-and I'd suspect it is,questions should be asked about it's notional outstanding exposure.

ISDA basically saying gross credit exposure of the whole derivatives market is $2.3 trillion on $544trn + $436 trn +others= £980trn++.

German taxpayers should get a second opinion as it appears some deals are being done without any margin being posted.

Would welcome our resident options traders view @MvR

 

Sorry, I'm really not qualified to offer a useful opinion on DB's derivatives book. OTC options are a totally different animal to the Exchange Traded Options I trade, and I assume they're mostly credit derivatives of various kinds, which I know next to nothing about.

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2 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

WE also need to THANK @spunkofor making this forum available WITHOUT the annoying ADS & moderating BullSh*t like ToS!

So cheers to ALL here! AND may we ALL prosper!

image.png.df8635055236b8957cc033df8e85e6f9.png

Exactly,those idiots on HPC suspended me for a month,pathetic,much better over here thanks to spunko for his work.

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4 minutes ago, Thorn said:

Keep on saying it but thanks again DB for being there. When you’ve been in the trench keeping your head down it’s amazing to see someone encouraging and showing a way on. 

Your threads and Everybody from WICAO to Sancho have been amazing to read and got me scanning books, YouTube videos and various websites almost every day. Most of the time not getting it and then suddenly A Penny Drops over something. 

DYOR obviously folks and my posts are absolutely not any sort of investing advice... but... I was a total  and  complete novice... then  I started following the tracker-not-picker way but then bought and sold and kept sort of panic selling then buying  stuff again when it was going down... kept getting twitchy at the passive approach... then started trying to see some TA in it all. 

Anyway here we are watching what is unfolding and it is amazing and a shock to be honest. 

For example... my wee bit of Eldorado is now up 114%. 

So thanks again man- keep it up- there is so much questioning and taking ideas apart to see if they are useful and putting new ideas in that besides may family  this thread and the mulling I do I’m between reads has become my favorite place in the world. 

I think DB that you might be a very knowledgeable and also extremely generous Seventh Son of a Seventh son. 

Might be a bit long but I think that should be the tile of the book. 

Great when you start to understand how liquidity drives everything.People go wrong not understand leads and lags.Sentiment gets terrible usually just before a turn.Retail is bleeding now because sterling got thrashed two years ago etc.Eldorado up 114% is great to hear,that old dog has come good as the rubber band snapped back hard.

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6 minutes ago, harp said:

Does this include yourself DB? I genuinely feel sorry for those people if they lose their jobs. BUT if they have over extended themselves in ANY way then its hard to feel TOO sorry.
But also a big thanks from me to you and all the regular posters on here. I went in really heavy into the miners/physical/BullionVault, probably more than I should as my reflation stocks wern't reflating (yet). And I'm happy to report as of today I'm WAY up. Thank you.

Fantastic harp,plan was always to deliver profits from the miners to invest in reflation stocks.They will be more slow burn of course,but some have come good already,Go Ahead is up 50%+dividends.I might lose mine yes,and almost certain to soon as the downturn bites,my road map said id go xmas though so i might be out by a few months xD

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I'm still too far down on CNA and VOD to be up overall, but it's nice to see GDX and GDXJ clawing the gains back!

Hopefully the time will come...

Just to add to the sentiments here, great thread, long may it continue, and cheers DB!

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A Interesting day as stated before thank you to everyone in this thread especially @DurhamBorn for starting the thread which got me of my ass 

Actually bought more silver this morning Just need to think about when to sell some of these miners 

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14 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

With interest rates so

low do you think it’s possable to borrow 20k and wait for the big crash then invest it and come out a winner

dont worry im

not thinking of doing it but many might 

yes i do,but i avoid leverage and debt and it can destroy a portfolio,

Just now, DoINeedOne said:

A Interesting day as stated before thank you to everyone in this thread especially @DurhamBorn for starting the thread which got me of my ass 

Actually bought more silver this morning Just need to think about when to sell some of these miners 

Iv sold quite a lot now,im actually tempted to sell my original capital and ride all the profit for free (its quite substantial).

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Just now, DurhamBorn said:

yes i do,but i avoid leverage and debt and it can destroy a portfolio,

Leverage is insane saw a friend use it on about 25-1 cost him everything his stops didn’t wok he claimed 

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Bricks & Mortar

Best of luck for tomorrow then, DB. 
I do feel sorry for the ones that have over-extended in a reasonable-ish way.  Many folk find themselves in situations where they need to do something reasonable... like live in a house... and need some debt to do so.

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5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

When silver goes up its the marginal players who do best,the stronger companies lag in the first few stages.Endeavour are up about 30% in three days for example.

I think I understand the logic behind that (marginals switch from loss-making to profit, I guess), I just don't understand how the drop in Fresnillo's production is not being offset by the rising PM prices.  Anyway, I'll know for next time )

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7 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Best of luck for tomorrow then, DB. 
I do feel sorry for the ones that have over-extended in a reasonable-ish way.  Many folk find themselves in situations where they need to do something reasonable... like live in a house... and need some debt to do so.

Very true.I think in life a lot of people get behind the curve early and simply never get ahead.I working with a couple of young guys under 22 and they are earning £33k a year + pension.Thats a very high wage in the North east,both live at home and both have spent every penny in two years and worse also have expensive lease cars now.At the same age i saved and invested 70% of my wages.You can get a terrace house up here for £70k a good one.They should of easily saved £40k in two years and could now be a single guy in his own place with a £30k mortgage that they can pay off easily over the next few years.

The problem i see out there is nobody,and i mean nobody has any understanding of money.The government has got them all right where it wants them.Slaves to debt,slaves to consumption and where that leads.Working until 60+,maybe 68.

From a selfish point we should be pleased of course.The reason i can buy a £500 solid oak cabinet to stand my TV on for £70 on Facebook marketplace,the reason i could buy a £300 pushchair for the grandkids for £30 etc is because of this lack of understanding and want for new all the time.

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Talking Monkey
1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Very true.I think in life a lot of people get behind the curve early and simply never get ahead.I working with a couple of young guys under 22 and they are earning £33k a year + pension.Thats a very high wage in the North east,both live at home and both have spent every penny in two years and worse also have expensive lease cars now.At the same age i saved and invested 70% of my wages.You can get a terrace house up here for £70k a good one.They should of easily saved £40k in two years and could now be a single guy in his own place with a £30k mortgage that they can pay off easily over the next few years.

The problem i see out there is nobody,and i mean nobody has any understanding of money.The government has got them all right where it wants them.Slaves to debt,slaves to consumption and where that leads.Working until 60+,maybe 68.

From a selfish point we should be pleased of course.The reason i can buy a £500 solid oak cabinet to stand my TV on for £70 on Facebook marketplace,the reason i could buy a £300 pushchair for the grandkids for £30 etc is because of this lack of understanding and want for new all the time.

It is spot on that about no understanding of money DB, 33K is a damn good wage up north, how they could be skint is nuts when living at home

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5 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

I think I understand the logic behind that (marginals switch from loss-making to profit, I guess), I just don't understand how the drop in Fresnillo's production is not being offset by the rising PM prices.  Anyway, I'll know for next time )

Just typical market fluctuations IMO on a not great report, best not to spend too much time watching it unless there is something fundamentally wrong with the company.  Rising PM prices will eventually drag it up for sure, its a cash pumping behemoth if silver motors.

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Castlevania
17 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Barrick’s put up or shut up deadline for their acquisition of Acacia is tomorrow. Any thoughts on whether they’ll sweeten the deal? 0.2 Barrick shares for each of Acacia would be enough in my opinion, seeing as they already own 65% of the company. At least that’s what I’m hoping so I can dump my Acacia shares for a decent profit (already have enough Barrick).

Well it’s been sweetened from 0.153 Barrick shares to 0.168 plus the potential for some special dividends from the sale of exploration assets. Not great but sweetened by Barrick’s shares being up a lot since the original bid. I’d have been better off by selling all my Acacia shares and buying Barrick when the bid was announced (Acacia’s shares were trading at a 10% premium to the offer) and selling now. Ah well. For me it’s a 50%+ gain in little more than two months. So I can’t complain too much :)

Now I guess the question is what I do with the proceeds. Gold and silver miners have been flying so I’m a bit wary of reinvesting here. Maybe more gambling stocks and telcos?

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