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DurhamBorn

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

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6 hours ago, spygirl said:

The 'oh trade issues' is total BS. Its obvious that jobs are coming back from China at a rapid clip.

If China collapses and burns and goes back to eaten grass then US will just sell fwer ipads - but most Chinese had movedto chinese mart phones anyhow.

I doubt china will end that way. Most likely outcome is chinese wages go up, more chinese retire, so put upwardpressure on returns and chinese start consuming to turing around the last 25 years of export deflations.

???

‘Reshoring’ Report Finds Factory Work Not Returning to U.S.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/reshoring-report-finds-factory-work-not-returning-to-u-s-11562795251

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10 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

???

‘Reshoring’ Report Finds Factory Work Not Returning to U.S.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/reshoring-report-finds-factory-work-not-returning-to-u-s-11562795251

Its bullshit.

Why, if you are worried about tariffs, would you move to another country outside of US?

Theres some stuff shifted to other Asian countries but their manufacturing capacity is tiny.

There  is loads of stuff coming back and other stuff staying the US.

Many reasons.

One, China is nto cheap.

Two, the benefits, bar very mass cheap stuff, are pretty hard to find.

Three, US is just goign that way now.

 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Its bullshit.

Why, if you are worried about tariffs, would you move to another country outside of US?

Theres some stuff shifted to other Asian countries but their manufacturing capacity is tiny.

There  is loads of stuff coming back and other stuff staying the US.

Many reasons.

One, China is nto cheap.

Two, the benefits, bar very mass cheap stuff, are pretty hard to find.

Three, US is just goign that way now.

 

 

 

We have a lot of American work that used to be done in China for the US now done here for the US to avoid tariffs,also here to China instead of US.A lot of factory work is and will come back because like you say China isnt cheap now,and its quality is still pretty poor.China will need to start consuming and spending and the deflation tap has already been turned off.Short sharp deflation then off to the inflation races.We are making TVs in my home town and washers down the road again.Close to market will be key going forward due to transport costs.

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16 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

 

 

Guys, thanks for the replies/input.
 
( EX-cluding mobile ) Can i really have Internet with no land line ?
 
Let me explain what I'm after...
 
Basically i don't give a sh*t about TV, as i threw my television in the skip over a decade ago!
 
I don't use Internet on mobile, ALL I want is Internet to my PC, as from here i have a land line in the form of ->vonage UK as I've been with them for a few years i get a great deal - ONLY £3.99 p/month 100 call minutes & unlimited for receiving calls, great for biz use.
 
So its all about -> dongle OR conductor to the roadside box ?
 
Can this been done anywhere in UK even if ya live in the sticks?
 
Thanks for any info in advance.
 
 

 

If I were doing it in my house I'd want a 4G/5G router with an external antenna.

Depending on the reception where your PC is you could get away with a dongle in the back and off you go.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes that old dog Eldorado making us money.More to come as well.Greece just elected a government that will permit their Greek mines at last i expect.

INDEED! Just loged into HL & yeah my Eldorado holding up 30%! (Portfolio only down now 2.0%)

I have a gut feeling about our other DOG ... New Gold ...it done a double-bottom @ around 88cents really should buy more even if i only put a monkey in, otherwise i'll ONLY be moaning when it does finally ROCKET!:o

 

23 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

If I were doing it in my house I'd want a 4G/5G router with an external antenna.

Depending on the reception where your PC is you could get away with a dongle in the back and off you go.

Thanks,  however my vonage line (internet phone-line) works from an ethernet cable from the vonage box, could this still be achievable?

 

Edited by Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
.

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7 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

INDEED! Just loged into HL & yeah my Eldorado holding up 30%! (Portfolio only down now 2.0%)

I have a gut feeling about our other DOG ... New Gold ...it done a double-bottom @ around 88cents really should buy more even if i only put a monkey in, otherwise i'll ONLY be moaning when it does finally ROCKET!:o

 

 

Thanks,  however my vonage line (internet phone-line) works from an ethernet cable from the vonage box, could this still be achievable?

 

Ah yeah, get yourself a router then that either takes the SIM directly or you can attach a dongle to, then you have Ethernet ports to connect devices like vonage and your PC to.

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I bought heavily again many mining shares at the end of May. I was expecting a minor correction during July, although there is still time for this to happen, followed by strong growth thereafter towards the end of the year.. For me any dips in the mining shares I am buying and will not be taking profits, as this is the best investment strategy that works for me in view of my age, ie I am in the camp of buy and hold. I am now coming around to the opinion that the low in Gold has been and gone. Just my thoughts.

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Just waiting and hoping silver starts to shine before too long.  I have gone down the risky route but wth it's mostly sipp so longer term.  I dripped a bit into a gold miner fund and also took a single position in sibayne.  Otherwise mostly "spray n pray" silvers alexco, coure, ende our, great panther (love the name!).  Oh got the new gold too that am happy at recent up swings but counted out of doing much other then breaking even in the foreseeable future.

@billfunk thanks for info re nickel.  Reason I asked as when I saw the market cap alarm bells started ringing.  Long time ago I remember hearing someone piling all their cash (30k over few years) to ecr minerals.  Think they had just been reading anon message boards and obviously bit careless to put it mildily having that many eggs basket etc.  Think the share bombed a bit over the years and kept getting diluted ending up with iirc sub 1 million market cap.

Totally not accusing your picks being in the same league though just reminded me a bit!

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Two post from FT:

Negative bond yields spill into Europe’s emerging markets

Sovereign debt from Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland now offers sub-zero returns

https://www.ft.com/content/6cee154a-a307-11e9-974c-ad1c6ab5efd1

Greek bond yields dip even lower than US Treasuries

Rally in Greece’s sovereign bonds comes after election victory for centre-right party

https://www.ft.com/content/adf7e9ac-a18c-11e9-a282-2df48f366f7d

So there you have it.

Due to the genius of the ECB, Greece offers a better financial bet than the US.

ECB/Euro is fucked, it really is.

I hope they remove all indexing from ECB and ECB officials pensions and the member countries state pensions too.

 

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41 minutes ago, Dogtania said:

Just waiting and hoping silver starts to shine before too long.  I have gone down the risky route but wth it's mostly sipp so longer term.  I dripped a bit into a gold miner fund and also took a single position in sibayne.  Otherwise mostly "spray n pray" silvers alexco, coure, ende our, great panther (love the name!).  Oh got the new gold too that am happy at recent up swings but counted out of doing much other then breaking even in the foreseeable future.

@billfunk thanks for info re nickel.  Reason I asked as when I saw the market cap alarm bells started ringing.  Long time ago I remember hearing someone piling all their cash (30k over few years) to ecr minerals.  Think they had just been reading anon message boards and obviously bit careless to put it mildily having that many eggs basket etc.  Think the share bombed a bit over the years and kept getting diluted ending up with iirc sub 1 million market cap.

Totally not accusing your picks being in the same league though just reminded me a bit!

That is exactly the league my picks are in. Bulletin Board, Twitter, Youtube, Vox dodginess. Very speculative. Very possible they are diluted to nothing. Hence why I only use small stakes initially and I only increase my bets once the stock has paid me off with a 2 bagger minimum. I leave a bit of residual in "forever" but swing trade the troughs with increasing amounts of money each time. I am fairly new to investing so I would not take a single word I say as gospel. I do, however, think I have found a decent congregation of stock pickers on the various platforms which provide me with viable gambles. Stocks I like currently are::

BIDS, ANIC, LEK, UJO, YU, NCCL, STAR, DEV, HZM, AAU, TSG, SKIN, SIA.

I have starter bets in all of these as they are either deep value/ growth resource plays or are techy type companies with strong theses. BIDS and ANIC in particular are rocket stocks I think - both very disruptive.

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2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

We have a lot of American work that used to be done in China for the US now done here for the US to avoid tariffs,also here to China instead of US.A lot of factory work is and will come back because like you say China isnt cheap now,and its quality is still pretty poor.China will need to start consuming and spending and the deflation tap has already been turned off.Short sharp deflation then off to the inflation races.We are making TVs in my home town and washers down the road again.Close to market will be key going forward due to transport costs.

The whole point of making things in China was that their workers were cheaper. If you moved a 1000-worker factory to China you got 1000 cheaper workers in your factory. 

But now you only need 10 people to run the factory anyway (plus robots) so why not bring it back home. 

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5 hours ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Ah yeah, get yourself a router then that either takes the SIM directly or you can attach a dongle to, then you have Ethernet ports to connect devices like vonage and your PC to.

THANKS!

I had to google what feck a dongle is lol!

image.thumb.jpeg.61ba8709b33338f23ce40b01cb004b41.jpeg

 

so really all i would need is something like this:

D-Link DWR-921/B 4G/3G LTE Sim Slot Unlocked Wireless Mobile Broadband Router with 4-Port Ethernet-Black

https://www.amazon.co.uk/D-Link-DWR-921-Unlocked-Wireless-Broadband/dp/B00BN36NMM?ref_=fsclp_pl_dp_6

image.jpeg.b346646a3b554acabfe70fc1d4257c78.jpeg

once the above is bought its just a matter of picking a SIM provider ...correct?

so what would the best SIM provider be, or would that depend on where you are based signal wise etc..?

this is coming around to being a good idea AND no rip-off BT landline!:Old:

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2 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

this is coming around to being a good idea AND no rip-off BT landline!:Old:

Try to get a router from America rather than within the EU. The transmitting signal is a lot stronger because the manufacturer has to limit the strength here. Helps if you want to cover a large area

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11 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

once the above is bought its just a matter of picking a SIM provider ...correct?

so what would the best SIM provider be, or would that depend on where you are based signal wise etc..?

this is coming around to being a good idea AND no rip-off BT landline!:Old:

Yes. Sim provider depends on where you are.

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10 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

Try to get a router from America rather than within the EU. The transmitting signal is a lot stronger because the manufacturer has to limit the strength here. Helps if you want to cover a large area

 
@Cosmic Apple @reformed nice guy THANKS for the info!
 
Could ya please recommend any sites/links for a USA router. Thanks! ... maybe ebay?
 
Apologies for being a bit 'thick' when it comes to the technology thing, AND this being off-topic ...but then these posts would help others here I'm sure...PLUS its in the SAVE Moolah category!:D
image.jpeg.9f9ffc719f466191bb590881500f38b6.jpeg

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On 10/07/2019 at 16:30, billfunk said:

Nickel inventories are depleting and current production is not able to meet demand. There is a chart somewhere showing that a serious shortage will have developed by 2021-22. Chartwise HZM has recently formed a nice round double bottom and curled up.

Well, it's doing well so far. As I only bought a tiny amount it has a way to go before it returns any profit, but still. Seems like a good call!

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29 minutes ago, Loki said:

Well, it's doing well so far. As I only bought a tiny amount it has a way to go before it returns any profit, but still. Seems like a good call!

I'm happy it has given you a bit of immediate joy. It is one I will probably hold for several years and one I am looking to 10 bag. Good Luck.

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43 minutes ago, billfunk said:

I'm happy it has given you a bit of immediate joy. It is one I will probably hold for several years and one I am looking to 10 bag. Good Luck.

Yes I like to buy and hold too, here's hoping you're right. Thanks again!

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On 11/07/2019 at 16:39, spygirl said:

Two post from FT:

Negative bond yields spill into Europe’s emerging markets

Sovereign debt from Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland now offers sub-zero returns

https://www.ft.com/content/6cee154a-a307-11e9-974c-ad1c6ab5efd1

Greek bond yields dip even lower than US Treasuries

Rally in Greece’s sovereign bonds comes after election victory for centre-right party

https://www.ft.com/content/adf7e9ac-a18c-11e9-a282-2df48f366f7d

So there you have it.

Due to the genius of the ECB, Greece offers a better financial bet than the US.

ECB/Euro is fucked, it really is.

I hope they remove all indexing from ECB and ECB officials pensions and the member countries state pensions too.

 

Connected

https://www.ft.com/content/eeadb2a8-a32e-11e9-974c-ad1c6ab5efd1


But despite the red-hot demand for its debt, Berlin is resisting any temptation to go on a borrowing spree. Quite the opposite. Germany’s finance agency announced in April that its ratio of debt to gross domestic product would this year drop below 60 per cent — a sharp decline from more than 80 per cent as recently as 2012, meaning that Germany is the first big EU economy to meet the Maastricht guidelines on public debt since the financial crisis.

Germany is paying off its debt at a rapid clip. Not sure how thus will continue with China contracting.

In 7 years, whilst UK debt has doubled, germany reduced its debt/gdp by 1/4. Wow!

It means that the euro are debt portfolio is rapidly becoming junk.

And ECB QE has run out of decent debt to buy, not that QE did anything but destroying euro banks and temporarily bailing failing euro countries.

 

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On 11/01/2019 at 14:12, Harley said:

.......

Oh well, at least I can hug my October PM purchases in the interim! 

Or should that be have a nice tea in their possible very long term cup and handle chart pattern!

Happy days.......

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cupandhandle.asp

Capture.PNG.692dc2f046f0389fc3049299d79b5d39.PNG

A bit longer term but......

Capture3.thumb.PNG.8b591e2b98e25ee42b2bd712ff25a9bf.PNG

Now the pullback!?

Edited by Harley

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2 hours ago, spygirl said:

Connected

https://www.ft.com/content/eeadb2a8-a32e-11e9-974c-ad1c6ab5efd1


But despite the red-hot demand for its debt, Berlin is resisting any temptation to go on a borrowing spree. Quite the opposite. Germany’s finance agency announced in April that its ratio of debt to gross domestic product would this year drop below 60 per cent — a sharp decline from more than 80 per cent as recently as 2012, meaning that Germany is the first big EU economy to meet the Maastricht guidelines on public debt since the financial crisis.

Germany is paying off its debt at a rapid clip. Not sure how thus will continue with China contracting.

In 7 years, whilst UK debt has doubled, germany reduced its debt/gdp by 1/4. Wow!

It means that the euro are debt portfolio is rapidly becoming junk.

And ECB QE has run out of decent debt to buy, not that QE did anything but destroying euro banks and temporarily bailing failing euro countries.

 

The Maastricht guidelines are stupid.

  • Debt issuance as % of GDP is before interest payments.  This is idiocy -- the number should be %age spent on repaying debt after interest. (ie, the actually interesting thing is 'how hard is the country trying' -- sure, the 'before interest' figures are what you'd look at if you were an individual ('are we getting further into debt'), but countries aren't individuals and shouldn't be measured as such).
  • Total debt is gross -- it should be netted against assets held.  If you bother to include assets then Germany doesn't looks too great (ie, some countries hold debt and also hold lots of assets that cancel all the debt out, eg Finland*)
  • Maastricht doesn't say anything about surpluses.  The reason why Germany is 'doing so well with debt' is because it is generating too large a surplus, because it can use the Euro to keep interest and exchange rates much lower than the country 'deserves'.  The Euro looks to be designed to allow Germany to take advantage of other EU countries via a mercantilist mechanism.  In the context of Maastricht big surplusses are as bad as big debts, but the rules don't say anything about it.

Everything about Maastricht look wrong -- even the inflation target is 'wrong' (ie, if you're having an inflation target for a wide area like the EU it should exclude external factors because there's no point in mandating policy against an inflation if your policy can't actually influence that inflation component)

[* Finland doesn't exist.]

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On 11/07/2019 at 20:45, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

THANKS!

I had to google what feck a dongle is lol!

image.thumb.jpeg.61ba8709b33338f23ce40b01cb004b41.jpeg

 

so really all i would need is something like this:

D-Link DWR-921/B 4G/3G LTE Sim Slot Unlocked Wireless Mobile Broadband Router with 4-Port Ethernet-Black

https://www.amazon.co.uk/D-Link-DWR-921-Unlocked-Wireless-Broadband/dp/B00BN36NMM?ref_=fsclp_pl_dp_6

image.jpeg.b346646a3b554acabfe70fc1d4257c78.jpeg

once the above is bought its just a matter of picking a SIM provider ...correct?

so what would the best SIM provider be, or would that depend on where you are based signal wise etc..?

this is coming around to being a good idea AND no rip-off BT landline!:Old:

If you want wireless, rather than a USB antenna, I would get a PCI card instead (just open up the PC and plug in the slot on the motherboard) USB drivers can have dropouts/conflicts etc.

If your happy with wired you don’t need anything more for your PC at all, just connect the ethernet cable directly to the router as before.

Instead of using the Vonage box and service you can get a 4G VoIP router instead (which you connect your landline phone directly to) and then you can use whatever VoIP service you want (or multiple). Sipgate is free so has no monthly fees (top up service) and you can transfer your old landline number.

Edited by Sideysid

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