Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[Sasquatch]

Been reading up on defence spending today. The world's not getting any safer and I think all governments, including ours, will be increasing expenditure. There is going to be lots of sabre rattling and like it or not, the UK will need to show its muscle. Surely this means more boats, planes, logistics etc etc. Qinetiq possibly worth a little punt? Share price down a little over the last 6 months but holding up reasonably well. Anyone holding this stock?

[DurhamBorn]

11 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Been reading up on defence spending today. The world's not getting any safer and I think all governments, including ours, will be increasing expenditure. There is going to be lots of sabre rattling and like it or not, the UK will need to show its muscle. Surely this means more boats, planes, logistics etc etc. Qinetiq possibly worth a little punt? Share price down a little over the last 6 months but holding up reasonably well. Anyone holding this stock?

I bought some BAE when it was down earlier in the year,but only a very small holding.Its an area i want more in,but hard to find value at the moment.Lots of defense spending to come,a lot of it from Europe.

[CVG]

8 hours ago, spygirl said:

*The* best value is Scarborough. There are some nice areas where southern equity gets a really good house.

I like what I see. What areas are best to look at in Scarborough?

[Democorruptcy]

13 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

2028ish, and will run slowly at first,might be only 5% by 2025.though remember its just what i see at the end of my road map.Its the direction that matters.We might not reach the end,lots can happen on the way,but thats what i see as things stand now.Next few months im going to work through some foreign stocks i think will do well in the reflation,in a few sectors not really mentioned on here yet.I think as Harley says its time to get ready about where to allocate as we could be close (within a year maybe?).

One of the companies is Evonik Industries,i like the fact its involved in animal medicines,growth stuff etc,if anyone would like to do a bit of research,the farm animal/poultry feed,medicine sector is a one that should do well.Other im watching is Bayer AG,but there must be a lot more if people want to do some leg work.The US feed companies are way too high,the few iv checked.Germany etc might be a good hunting ground.

It would be nice if Sterling went up a bit first?

[Majorpain]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49400232

Greene king bites the dust, bought by Hong Kong company for a big premium.  Good deal for shareholders, not so much for the Chinese.

[Democorruptcy]

14 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Edit: Should probably add I've bitten the bullet and finally called it quits on the South East, relocating to Staffs end of the year. Obviously family asking if I'm buying straight away but couldn't think of a worse time as prices only just starting to level out there, I don't pay attention to the daft % rise numbers given as very lagging and most include new builds, i just track the houses I'm interested in and very few are shifting at all, we've now entered the staring competition phase.

I quite like Leek. The Green Dragon is a decent Wetherspoons and there's quite a lot of other pubs. It's got an Aldi and the Waitrose has changed into a Lidl which would suit me more. Some walks near water Tittesworth Reservoir & Rudyard Lake. The Roaches and Peak District walks. Buxton isn't far and I think it's OK but M&S have just declared it a shit town.

Edit: I think I should have given Blaze Farm near Wildboarclough a mention, given how many cream teas I've had there!

[DurhamBorn]

26 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

It would be nice if Sterling went up a bit first?

It sure would,i see sterling at $1.38,so lets hope the stocks slide in tandem.Got a few lined up already.

[DurhamBorn]

 

18 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I quite like Leek. The Green Dragon is a decent Wetherspoons and there's quite a lot of other pubs. It's got an Aldi and the Waitrose has changed into a Lidl which would suit me more. Some walks near water Tittesworth Reservoir & Rudyard Lake. The Roaches and Peak District walks. Buxton isn't far and I think it's OK but M&S have just declared it a shit town.

Edit: I think I should have given Blaze Farm near Wildboarclough a mention, given how many cream teas I've had there!

One of the nicest places iv been the Peak District.Loved Bakewell,Matlock etc.Happy memories of times i spent there with a beauty stylist from Sheffield.I wouldnt live there as too far from the coast etc,but a lovely area.

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I was shocked at the difference in price from Whitby to Brid,double in a lot of cases.I actually think Brid is decent value.No good for locals of course as no decent jobs,but for a holiday home it wouldnt take much of a fall to make it look good.Like you say if i was doing it il look for around 10 weeks a year let out,that would cover the costs.Not sure how people find cleaners for Bay etc.

My cousin had a long term rental in Scotland for £600 a month. When he moved out they turned it into a holiday let £1,500 a week peak season down to £1,000 in winter. They don't need many weeks to beat the long term rate. Plus don't the landlords get tax breaks e.g. council tax? I can see why the money has flowed in particularly with such pro-HPI governbankments. I've moved from a residential let to a holiday let for 50% of their winter rate, no utility bills or council tax. I'm hoping the holiday let market becomes even more saturated, then the governbankment finally does something to hit the holiday let owners and I can pick up a cheaper buy when they all rush to the exit. 

[DurhamBorn]

Just putting this out there,

 

The UK's largest domestic energy firms have won back customers with a string of new, competitive deals. 

Comparethemarket's monthly snapshot suggests E.On, SSE and British Gas won the highest percentage of customers who changed deals last month.

 

[S Brule]

Saw a thread on Twitter today where someone was putting an argument forward for a bond bear market and higher rates in the future. I saw this point that backs up what has been discussed here and thought it was interesting.

Not sure how to embed so here is a quote, plus link to the full thread: https://mobile.twitter.com/kevinmuir/status/1163424969881260033

Quote

The absurdity of the situation is beyond compare. Yeah, I get how bad the economy is in Europe.

But the governments are literally getting PAID TO SPEND.

Do you realize what a no-brainer it is for POLITICIANS to DO FISCAL STIMULUS?

(And thank you to everyone here. A fantastic thread. I've followed since we were on TOS but have always observed silently from the shadows ).

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, CVG said:

I like what I see. What areas are best to look at in Scarborough?

Avoid town. Tiny house, limited parking.

The scums in eastfield and barfowcliffe. Alci tramps along north nsrine rd.

 I dont like Southcliff. Some people do. Avoid the cliff, its slipping.

Look at Falsgrave Rd towards Scalby.

The rd behind the hospital, near 6th form is good.

The houses along the sea cut to scalby mills.

Seriously, i use scabby as zn exsmple of where thr big houses are cheaper than rebuild.

Theres some build old fantastic houses/dotted around town - ramshill, buts of old town.

Council gave btoughg in strict hmo flop house licensing. Hopefully itll smarten up town.

 

 

 

[spygirl]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I was shocked at the difference in price from Whitby to Brid,double in a lot of cases.I actually think Brid is decent value.No good for locals of course as no decent jobs,but for a holiday home it wouldnt take much of a fall to make it look good.Like you say if i was doing it il look for around 10 weeks a year let out,that would cover the costs.Not sure how people find cleaners for Bay etc.

Its more 3x difference.

Go back 40 years n Scabby was expensive (and still up marketish, money sloshing)

Brid was 2nd - Hull n far east midlands went to Brid on hols.

And Whitby was just fishing. The front was was derelict til 80s. Church street to the kipper hut was falling down. Grand hotel on west cliff was reduced to running a disco n bands, such as sex pistol, who were watched by 10 people.

Getting a cleaner is the block for holiday lets. A lot dont turn up, which is an issue for the 4h cgange over slot. A lot will charge for 4h and do a quick 1h - air fresher, linen strip, quick dust. That way they can do 3 rather than 1 - its £60 for each changeover. Good for them.

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, S Brule said:

Saw a thread on Twitter today where someone was putting an argument forward for a bond bear market and higher rates in the future. I saw this point that backs up what has been discussed here and thought it was interesting.

Not sure how to embed so here is a quote, plus link to the full thread: https://mobile.twitter.com/kevinmuir/status/1163424969881260033

(And thank you to everyone here. A fantastic thread. I've followed since we were on TOS but have always observed silently from the shadows ).

We are about to see the biggest bond bear market in history.Including inflation people buying long bonds now will likely lose 90% of their buying power.Some people can smell higher rates,but what they are missing is just how high.Should be interesting.

[sancho panza]

Sun headline hattip Henry Pryor

https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/9746400/first-time-buyers-negative-equity-house-prices-deposit/

BRICKING IT 

First-time buyers with 5% deposits now in negative equity due to plummeting house prices

 

[sancho panza]

 

12 hours ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

 

Good video on the bond bubble and negative rates/debt

Karl Denninger(who was well ahead of the game in 08) starts his piece at 13 minuites.Very good as ever.Thx for posting

7 hours ago, JMD said:

Thanks SP, I was looking for a way to compare, for example selected co's within a sector, by comparing their financials (debt, cash flow, etc). Investing.com looks great and certainly has all this info. (and oodles more besides), although I admit I don't see which debt figure is the most relevant figure to use, i.e. on the site Vodaphone 'total liabilities' is 80billion Euros of debt, but the press talk of 28billion Euros so am bit confused which figure to use. The 'stock screener' looks very useful to help filter interesting co's - do you use that tool at all?  

Press may be talking about net debt or some other figure and getting confused.Accuracy isn't really their thing in my experience.

I prefer to use one website for the figures-sometimes cross checking with things like Marketwatch to verify accuracy.Using one website allows you to compare shares on a like for like baiss.Obviously manadatory warning that the data is only as good as the people giving it.

 

I don't suse the screener at all.I pick an asset class and then look at the major player shares within it.

6 hours ago, Harley said:

@JMD and @sancho panza just had a look at investing.com and a lot to like over Morningstar.  Thanks.  One thing I like about Morningstar however is it ages a company's borrowings.  I'll try using investing.com as my first point of call however, especially the screener.  On that, are the screening options any better with the paid option?  No that they are any better on Morningstar.  Or does paying just get you ad free (and faster)?

PS: Whoops, problems with the completeness of the screener!

Paid option is purely ad free .No extras.Morning star is indeed very good .

https://uk.investing.com/ad-free-subscription/

[DurhamBorn]

13 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Sun headline hattip Henry Pryor

https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/9746400/first-time-buyers-negative-equity-house-prices-deposit/

BRICKING IT 

First-time buyers with 5% deposits now in negative equity due to plummeting house prices

 

 

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Just putting this out there,

 

The UK's largest domestic energy firms have won back customers with a string of new, competitive deals. 

Comparethemarket's monthly snapshot suggests E.On, SSE and British Gas won the highest percentage of customers who changed deals last month.

 

Yeah,shame,we're at our limit on utilities.

As per  our discussion on here,they were waiting for the smaller players to go under with their loss making deals.Govt faces a choice,either allow a modicum of profit for CNA and SSE or watch as another business gets bought by foreign owners-Chinese,or fraped by private equity.

 

9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

Showing yer age.............

[sancho panza]

Watch what they do not what they say................net 12 months director sells

 

https://www.sharecast.com/index/FTSE_100/director-deal/net-1-year/asc

 

[Agent ZigZag]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Sun headline hattip Henry Pryor

https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/9746400/first-time-buyers-negative-equity-house-prices-deposit/

BRICKING IT 

First-time buyers with 5% deposits now in negative equity due to plummeting house prices

 

And the worst lender fueling this is Yorkshire Building Society

15 minutes ago, Tdog said:

We're not there yet, but that is such a wonderful headline, waited fucken ages to see such words in the MSM.

We are there in London 

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

LSL Acadata up 0.7% yoy

 

Interesting to see 24/33 London Borughs are falling yoy. Top faller's

1) City of Westminster -17.5%

2) City of London -15%

3) Hammersmith and Fulham -13.3%

4)Merton -11.6%

5) Lambeth -17.2%

6)Tower hamlets -13.9%

7) Newham, -11.7%.

 

All other falling boroughs under -10%

https://lsl-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/lslps/uploads/media_file/EW-House-Price-Index-June-2019.pdf

 

 

5 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

And the worst lender fueling this is Yorkshire Building Society

We are there in London 

ANy links for YBS?

Ref London,I pulled a quote from the HPI indices thread.Decent falls.

[Agent ZigZag]

24 minutes ago, Tdog said:

We're not there yet, but that is such a wonderful headline, waited fucken ages to see such words in the MSM.

 My friend in London who does mortgage lending Valuations told me that all 90% LTV she is doing are through Yorkshire. The agreed sales are through desperate buyers. The returned valuation is often lower than the agreed purchase price. These are sales. I dont know what remortgages she is doing with the same lender, but god help us as these lenders have learned nothing.

[Bobthebuilder]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

Tune.

A bit off topic but back in them days, (and they were very good days) i heard this tune on the radio. I quit my job that week and never looked back."cause we need each other and it depends on witch way the wind will blow" sleeping in arsehole.

 

[Bricks & Mortar]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

Whitby was just fishing. The front was was derelict til 80s. Church street to the kipper hut was falling down

I remember it well.  Went for 3 family holidays when I was 5, 6 and 7, each time in October - ('79, '80 and '81, to the best of my memory).  Same flat each time, right opposite the kipper shack.  I remember our cortina estate got parked on the plot of a demolished house.   Remember my Dad leaning out the dormer window to fix a pantile on the rented house.  Remember it was easy to drive around.  Kippers were the highlight.  Daytrips to Scarborough, York, Robinhoodsbay, Filey, Hornsea Pottery.  Remember my folks commenting the place needed some renovations like our own wee fishing town in Scotland had already seen, (and I remember plenty derelict ruins back home).  I suppose our family finances must have improved a bit afterward, cos next two holidays were to York and we ate out in a restaurant on a single evening in each of those holidays.
Never been back to Whitby.  Been on googlemap, and suppose January would be the best month to visit now.   Not sure i want to go back at all.  I might just prefer the memory of running all over the abbey ruins and being the only people there.

---------------

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

3 hours ago, S Brule said:

Saw a thread on Twitter today where someone was putting an argument forward for a bond bear market and higher rates in the future. I saw this point that backs up what has been discussed here and thought it was interesting.

Not sure how to embed so here is a quote, plus link to the full thread: https://mobile.twitter.com/kevinmuir/status/1163424969881260033

(And thank you to everyone here. A fantastic thread. I've followed since we were on TOS but have always observed silently from the shadows ).

We are about to see the biggest bond bear market in history.Including inflation people buying long bonds now will likely lose 90% of their buying power.Some people can smell higher rates,but what they are missing is just how high.Should be interesting.

Couple of days ago, I posted my theory that ibtl might be a place to stash some cash during the deflation.  I got crickets.  Bonds are new to me, and I probably don't understand them well enough.  I was thinking there might be a flight to the $ during the period, and the interest rate might drop over the period.  The above suggests why no-one took me on, and I apologise for my naivete.

[Barnsey]

4 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Couple of days ago, I posted my theory that ibtl might be a place to stash some cash during the deflation.  I got crickets.  Bonds are new to me, and I probably don't understand them well enough.  I was thinking there might be a flight to the $ during the period, and the interest rate might drop over the period.  The above suggests why no-one took me on, and I apologise for my naivete.

All about timelines, and important to distinguish between corporate and govt bonds.

If we get our big easing cycle, signalled very shortly either this week at Jackson Hole, or next month with another bigger cut, it seems that the recent stock market stabilisation may be ignited, leading to a temporary weakening of the dollar (and a pull back in treasury bonds which are massively overbought right now), gold/miners might start ticking up again, and everything seems it is awesome for now (mainly in the USA). We must remind ourselves that the NBER take between 6 to 12 months until confirming a recession, so we're working with lags and sentiment here. May also be some Q3 rebounds elsewhere to disrupt what seems like a very linear decline.

Now of course the hard data will inevitably catch up with us, and remember it's when things seem fine that we usually get our hard move down. Just seems like everyone is expecting a recession right now, and the contrarian in me suggests it's discussed far too much, too obvious?

FWIW when I think we're close and TLT has pulled back a bit, I'll probably sell GDX/GDXJ and my silver ETF and stick it all in IBTL for a few months, then buy back into those again. Long term, govt bonds including U.S. won't be great, very much a commodity driven cycle ahead.