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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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leonardratso

hehehe, just signed into share account - HZM +147%, check chart - was 7p back to 4.95p this morning wonder wassup there with these shitty penny stock, still not complaining.

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7 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

hehehe, just signed into share account - HZM +147%, check chart - was 7p back to 4.95p this morning wonder wassup there with these shitty penny stock, still not complaining.

My spider senses must have been tinging yesterday. I bought £1,000 of HZM shares yesterday afternoon. Currently up 48%! According to the newsfeed on HL they've just signed a $25M royalty agreement with Orion Mine Finance. 

Will probably go down 50% tomorrow!

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leonardratso
12 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

My spider senses must have been tinging yesterday. I bought £1,000 of HZM shares yesterday afternoon. Currently up 48%! According to the newsfeed on HL they've just signed a $25M royalty agreement with Orion Mine Finance. 

Will probably go down 50% tomorrow!

aye. Bitcoins been falling a lot this morning as well, that might be worth a punt.

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Don Coglione
12 hours ago, sancho panza said:

dn't realsie,but aren't there any UK based alternatives?

One good way of cutting the number of companies is to jsut move the market cap limit up from $1bn,always cuts a few off the bottom.I designed it to avoid the leveraged companies in sectors and jsut run a more conservative approach.With dealing fees as cheap as they are at II and HL,it's viable to do some smaller trades now.Especially with how high some of the smaller ones might go.

 

By the way.I'm reorganising our Godlies for the sit and hold phase,sold a couple of dogs today,tehn selling some mopre profitable trades that don't fit eg Detour/Teranga/Dundee.

 

Ref my psot above,I've been researching market top singlas for gold and the gold silver ratio is potentially viable here.Silver runs late into the bull and checks out rapidly.Crucially,it's far more volatile. and thus more potentially proiftable.Have you looekd at this?

I've been loading up with fres and HOCM(some more of the latter tmrw),you got a view on these?silver shares like these are looking cheap as chip compared to the ones I'm selling.

Bought first ladders in XOM/EQNR,OXY this evening.Loving HL and II,so thanks to all who reccomended.

Sancho,

Any thoughts on the rumours of a tie-up with / take-over by Barrick on Teranga? I am holding for now, albeit with an itchy finger...

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I'm up 80% on HZM at this moment in time. Will watch it today, most probably take the profit and leave the house money in in case it runs. Anything over 50% is pretty damn good in my eyes.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

CNA has been creeping up over the last few days, maybe should buy 1 LAST bundle...

Otherwise i'll be MOANING  :Old: should they ROCKET or get taken over!:D

image.jpeg.bcf0f168a91a724ef1052b194152b666.jpeg

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leonardratso
1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

My VOD went green today.

steady.....steady...... should be back to red by close of business, ive just warned the stock exchange.

HZM only +114% now, what a rollercoaster.

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1 hour ago, Hardhat said:

I'm up 80% on HZM at this moment in time. Will watch it today, most probably take the profit and leave the house money in in case it runs. Anything over 50% is pretty damn good in my eyes.

I have just added @ 4.33p as it appears today's sell off may have finished.

That said, I am obsessed with averaging up, and my timing when doing so is absolutely terrible. In any case I have wanted to up my stake for the last week and have been unable. Buying into strength is no bad thing in my book.

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23 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Hey up CV,didn't you mention CDI's a few days back?Do you know where you can see a full list of what's avaialble?

Only as in it’s the easiest route to buy Telefonica’s shares in the U.K. They’re like a U.K. version of an ADR as far as I can gather.

You’d think there’d be a list on the London Stock Exchange’s website but I couldn’t find anything.

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14 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Thanks for the advice MvR.

@DurhamBorn foudn this one on morning star,it's not the same as XLE but looks ok.

http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/etf/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=0P00013LFF

FYI, XLEP is a synthetic (unfunded swap), not a physical (full replication), ETF.

"Risk of using derivatives:  in order to reach its investment objective, the Fund enters into swap agreements which provide the performance of the Reference Index, and may imply a range of risks which could lead to an adjustment or even the early termination of the swap agreement".

Others at:  https://www.justetf.com/uk/find-etf.html?assetClass=class-equity&groupField=index&sector=Energy

 

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I've seen today that the VanEck Vectors Natural Resources ETF is now available on HL (not sure how long it's been there). This, or something similar, is something I've been considering for general commodity producer exposure and thought I'd share in case anyone here might be interested too. Having it all in one ETF might be good if you're either lazy (like me) or aren't investing enough in this area to justify the trading fees from buying into multiple companies or sector ETFs. Of course, do please DYOR as usual.

It doesn't pay a dividend, instead reinvesting them, but that doesn't really bother me personally. I've had a quick skim through the holdings here and got a rough estimate of the sectors it covers. Sectors I'm interested in include: precious metal mining (9%), general mining (11%), oil & gas producers/explorers (25%), energy distribution/utilities (6%), food producers (16%), fertilizer producers (9%), wood & paper producers (3%). It also has a few companies that produce agricultural equipment (13%), not sure how these might perform.

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I am a long time (10 year) lurker from the other site, over which time we haven't bought a place for various reasons, including spending 7 years in Oz. My god, that place has the most almighty of property bubbles...!

Long story short, I moved back to these shores last year for a job offer I just couldn't turn down, even if it is in the similarly 'bubble-tastic' SE. Nonetheless, we are here and settled for the long term, so in spite of the obvious issues with house price we are buying a place down here. Its expensive (yet still cheaper than renting similar) but has four bedrooms and a pretty huge garden whilst only being a few miles from where I work (easy cycling distance). My job is as solid as they come, I think. So, against our better judgement, we are going for it with a 30% deposit at 2.89% on a monster 15(!) year fix at a single salary multiple a little over 3.5. Doesn't feel to stretched to me. We are doing this mainly because we just can't reconcile with the prospect of moving to any more private rentals (8 in the last 10 years!) and I now have two kids who I'd like to have somewhere to call home (when we moved back from Aus and our container arrived, my eldest asked when the house was coming... heartbreaking!).

This will leave us with £35-40k of free capital to invest in the next cycle, whilst being pretty well shielded from the potential inflation being talked about here. In the event that major inflation doesn't come to pass we will obviously lose out on potentially lower interest rates in the short to medium term, but my appetite for risk is more than happy to carry that potential loss in order to sleep soundly at night in the event that rates ever do rise precipitously! Not the best financial decision given whats coming, I know, but the last ten years of moving at a landlords whim have ground us down. Will the house ever be worth what we pay for it? Probably not. But its come to the point where we just don't care. We just want a house to live in....! O.o

Anyway, I am looking forward to continue reading the discussion here about how best to position for the next cycle, and hopefully contributing here and there. I recently opened a HL ISA account to get in on the action (CNA, VOD etc.), but top of the list is some silver via BullionVault or CoinInvest... :)

As you were!

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4 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

My VOD went green today.

Dont forget to factor in divis as well for shares.A lot of the returns in reflation stocks will come from the dividends.

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1 hour ago, S Brule said:

I've seen today that the VanEck Vectors Natural Resources ETF is now available on HL (not sure how long it's been there). This, or something similar, is something I've been considering for general commodity producer exposure and thought I'd share in case anyone here might be interested too. Having it all in one ETF might be good if you're either lazy (like me) or aren't investing enough in this area to justify the trading fees from buying into multiple companies or sector ETFs. Of course, do please DYOR as usual.

It doesn't pay a dividend, instead reinvesting them, but that doesn't really bother me personally. I've had a quick skim through the holdings here and got a rough estimate of the sectors it covers. Sectors I'm interested in include: precious metal mining (9%), general mining (11%), oil & gas producers/explorers (25%), energy distribution/utilities (6%), food producers (16%), fertilizer producers (9%), wood & paper producers (3%). It also has a few companies that produce agricultural equipment (13%), not sure how these might perform.

Looks a very nice fund.Equipment is highly priced at the moment so might tread water,but looks like the sort of mix that should outrun inflation,and that will be the big thing in the next cycle.It does seem to maybe lean towards the biggest companies in each sector though.

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1 hour ago, Don Cam said:

we are going for it with a 30% deposit at 2.89% on a monster 15(!) year fix at a single salary multiple a little over 3.5

A very nice setup I'd say, especially if it leaves you with some capital to invest.

 

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7 minutes ago, kibuc said:

A very nice setup I'd say, especially if it leaves you with some capital to invest.

 

My hope is to dribble in to reflation equities to such a degree that just a modest return on investment will clear the mortgage balance at the end of the fix. Let's hope some good calls are made here collectively in the markets of the next few years! The PM miner trades I have been watching have gone well, but I couldn't risk my deposit at the time... :(

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24 minutes ago, Don Cam said:

My hope is to dribble in to reflation equities to such a degree that just a modest return on investment will clear the mortgage balance at the end of the fix. Let's hope some good calls are made here collectively in the markets of the next few years! The PM miner trades I have been watching have gone well, but I couldn't risk my deposit at the time... :(

Also consider playing via a SIPP. It's nice to know that the government will take the first 20% to 40% hit (tax relief on contributions) of any downturn! Or, freely leverage up your bets!

Only got 2 ladders into VOD and WMH before both turned. Sold ladder 2 in WMH today for a 20% profit.

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sancho panza
10 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

There's always the possibility we don't get a week dollar phase but I thought that things were far more skewed to a weaker dollar happening in the coming months as rate cuts get done and QE is seen as more and more likely by market participants. Would be interested to hear  view on the dollar direction in coming weeks months

getting predictions right is really hard as there are so many variables.SUing history as a guide tells us the Fed eill Qe and Zirp/Nirp, until the evidence is so overwhelming that it doesn't work,that the political class force a stop.The sort of thing that will end the monetary policy of the last ten eyars would be something like Deutsche Bank blowing up as a result of Zirp/Nirp or a bond market implosion.This si where the cracks in the current fed policy will appear.If banks are cracking,they'll have to stop.

Ergo,it makes sense that there's a high likelihood of a weak dollar phase.

How long this takes to play out is anyone's guess.Hence I tend to stay away from timeline calls as they take real balls .....fair play to DB.

What I will do,is position my where I see the value with reference to the dollar eg Gold,Oil,Silver,Potassh.If the dollar doesn't drop,I've picked up some quality companies cheap.If it does drop,they should go up.The key thing to do is to positon before the move begins.


PM's appear to be singalling a change in the outlook for the $ with DXY staying storng,while gold moves up.

Just my views.

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sancho panza
6 hours ago, Ponty Mython said:

Sancho,

Any thoughts on the rumours of a tie-up with / take-over by Barrick on Teranga? I am holding for now, albeit with an itchy finger...

Ponty,we spray n pray asset classes so basically try n ignore a lot of the noise within the sector,spread us thin enough that we don't get hit the way we did with CNA,but thickly enough that we pick up the upside of the asset class if it moves.

Hence,I don't really have a view-Teranga doesn't stand out to me the way some others do.if it happens great,I'd take the cash and put it to work somewhere else.

As an aside I've taken the oppurtunity over the last two days to reorganise the PM portfolio and shed (by weighting)Eldorado(-13%...yes...-13%,big weighting for us as well), Yamana (+30%),Detour(+80%),Amarillo(-20%),Western Copper&Gold( -20%).I'm going to sit out a few days as my gut is saying pullback inbound and then redeploy that in Fres,HOCM,Oceana,Sand,GORO,Guyana plus some littlies.

On a separate note,I was gutted Barrick took over Acacia

4 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Only as in it’s the easiest route to buy Telefonica’s shares in the U.K. They’re like a U.K. version of an ADR as far as I can gather.

You’d think there’d be a list on the London Stock Exchange’s website but I couldn’t find anything.

Cheers,I'd not heard of these before but found them on HL website for ENI of all things.

II allow us to have dollar accounts,so I'm tending towards the ADR's to be fiar.

Do you know any other stock brokers that do dollar accounts?

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sancho panza
4 hours ago, Harley said:

FYI, XLEP is a synthetic (unfunded swap), not a physical (full replication), ETF.

"Risk of using derivatives:  in order to reach its investment objective, the Fund enters into swap agreements which provide the performance of the Reference Index, and may imply a range of risks which could lead to an adjustment or even the early termination of the swap agreement".

Others at:  https://www.justetf.com/uk/find-etf.html?assetClass=class-equity&groupField=index&sector=Energy

 

Wow,out of left filed Harley.Thanks for the insight.I wouldn't touch it on that basis.A lesson in sticking to what I know.

Thanks for the insight.This thread at it's best if I may say.

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sancho panza
13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Ladder 1 in those now,thanks to @sancho panza for the lists on some (SLB).They having a good day,hopefully they have more bad days before the long march to the sun lit uplands of 2027 

Pleased I was of some use DB.

We bought first ladders in Total,Oxy,Repsol,Staoil,XOM yesterday and this morning.Reorganised Godlies as above.

Looking at first ladder in oil services/2nd tier oilies,nat gas/potash nest week as I'm on nights tonight n tmrw.

I see XES/XOP/SOIL /XLE etc all up handsomely today despite DXY being firmer.

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