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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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1 hour ago, Cosmic Apple said:

I think your wrong to try jumping in and out of IBTL. Its not gone up that much and your losing in spread, charges and tax.

If one is buying IBTL shouldn't that be for the long term? In part to balance out risk and fluctuations of equities? For the time being personally I don't have any tresuries/gilts.

Currently I have circa 10 HYP shares with the view that they're priced low now and they yield a decent dividend (with cover). They should increase in the long term as part of the next cycle but could and will likely go down in the short term. Mainly telco's, utlities and energy companies etc. Not worried about the price as these are to be held onto for a very long time. I have a bit in a gold ETF and the rest is in cash ready to BTFD.

People don't want to be watching the tape too much, that's when poor decisions will be made. Especially if the there is a crash/sell off. I'm of the view now that if people are selling that's the time for me to buy :D Buffet has some great quotes around holding and fear. Well worth a read.

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Does anyone have any thoughts on the overall transport infrastructure during the next cycle? With the diesel ban coming in 2040, how will that impact the railway network and roads. Surely they will need to relay a load of track to replace the 19th century stuff, electrification of the lines and upgrade the trains? Any companies that could benefit from this?

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leonardratso
20 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

Does anyone have any thoughts on the overall transport infrastructure during the next cycle? With the diesel ban coming in 2040, how will that impact the railway network and roads. Surely they will need to relay a load of track to replace the 19th century stuff, electrification of the lines and upgrade the trains? Any companies that could benefit from this?

yep, electricty generators. haha, does bombadier still build trains? or are they all foreign now?

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28 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

Does anyone have any thoughts on the overall transport infrastructure during the next cycle? With the diesel ban coming in 2040, how will that impact the railway network and roads. Surely they will need to relay a load of track to replace the 19th century stuff, electrification of the lines and upgrade the trains? Any companies that could benefit from this?

I can't see the diesel ban impacting hugely on the railway networks as they've not, so far, said anything about banning trucks iirc? Its mainly cars, as despite not producing as much pollution as trucks, are concentrated more in to urban areas. For cars its easy - petrol engines are very good now with small turbos and electric is of course an option which becomes more viable as technology improves range. Electricity production and transmission should be a good bet going forward, as DB has indicated, revenue generated from existing assets increases while depreciation becomes much easier to stomach in an era of higher inflation.

If the diesel focus moves to trucks then things could get interesting as there is not currently a viable alternative fuel for them in this country (In Thailand you'd see trucks with LNG tanks on them - along with everything else running on LNG - but this has never made it over to Europe), so rail could see a resurgence.

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It’s a diesel and petrol ban on new cars and vans by 2040.

Not sure if any companies are leading on HGV ‘platooning’ or if it’s just dft trial.

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2 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

It’s a diesel and petrol ban on new cars and vans by 2040.

Not sure if any companies are leading on HGV ‘platooning’ or if it’s just dft trial.

Ah I was thinking more in terms of the ULEZs spreading to other cities after London is a 'success' (by any means necessary...)

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DurhamBorn
13 hours ago, Berk said:

Hi All, I’m a long time lurker on ToS and I’ve been following this thread very closely since it began. @DurhamBorn I must give huge thanks for starting this superb thread and for your brilliant insight. Sincere thanks too to all the other posters whose input has helped expand my mind on these matters further than I could ever have hoped. I’ve also purchased wicao’s book up following the glowing recommendations; I’m presently halfway through and extremely glad to be in possession of it!

After much procrastination I acquired some small PM holdings (gold and silver) as a first foray a while back and I feel great for finally having taken the plunge! More diversification is to follow (after plenty of DYOR of course!) but it’s all thanks to this thread :) 

Thats great Berk,once you start to enjoy this sort of thing it really is a great string to anyone's bow.Each step along the road is a step towards freedom and away from slavery.

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3 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Ah I was thinking more in terms of the ULEZs spreading to other cities after London is a 'success' (by any means necessary...)

There will soon be ‘Clean Air Zones’ in Leeds, Derby, Birmingham and Southampton. Not sure how they compare to London’s though and I think it’s not actually determined yet. They’ll probably just focus on vans, taxis and buses.

I don’t know what the opportunities are here to be honest. I know that the National Grid has a big part to play in making sure their network is fit for rapid charging at services. Maybe it’s National Grid.

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DurhamBorn
14 hours ago, Thorn said:

Lovely. I’ve been surprised at how fast things move when you have a sense of targets.

Did well out of IBTL, Drax... you’re a machine. Just not sure how and when to get back into IBTL...Harp sounds like you are looking at same. Balancing the currency and price points from here.

From what I can see it’s navigate the BS. I see Goldman says Bubble?WhatBubble?re FAANGs...so it seems right to get moving the pieces about a bit more and going to start to get out of general trackers now.

Dollar turning down... so less juice for the FTSE 100...do you think wait for dollar to drop and get IBTL in a ladder makes sense..?

( still asking for a friend... DYOR and all that...)

Mr xxx from what I have read - and I am a complete beginner - the time for non-contrarian passive investing was since 2012 when QE made Everyone A Winner.

I dont see IBTL as a trade Thorn,i see it as a hold.I own it because i think it might gain 30% including sterling moves and if it does it would cover all my equity losses i expect.

Iv been slowly buying myself at the moment,iv been buying BT,Vodaphone,Imperial Brands (i sold a 20 year old holding at £38 and bought some back in the £23s and £25s),Harmony Gold,Stagecoach,Sibanye Gold,Centrica,New river REIT,Anglogold Ashanti.I sold some Royal Mail as they were up 50% and i sold some DRAX up 50% and some Go Ahead up 26%.

I fuly expect to keep averaging in to most/all on any falls.As alway everyone DYOR etc.

 

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DurhamBorn
7 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

For people who are not experienced with miners what would be the main area that would trip them up. I'm guessing spreading the allocation across 7-8 miners would help, put a little in each. Otherwise its a large PM holding with bulionvault.

I'm guessing in a PM bull market the miners should do equally well,

The miners are very volatile as a problem at a mine etc can cause big falls.For myself i tend to focus on 5 to 7 companies and know their assets/balance sheets,price history inside out.Then add them over time in several buys.I think a bull is coming so say one is at $2 (and its been $20) id buy at $2,$1.85,$1.70,$1.55 and then hold.

I also have no fear of them being down.They can sit red for as long as needed.People who cant stomach looking at big losses though shouldnt really be in the space.They should also be part of a portfolio,not an all in gamble.I am around 16% PM miners at the moment in my portfolio and thats likely as high as it will go.I have also taken profits on several over the last year (and sitting on losses on a couple).Sibanye i have owned three times,selling twice for good profits and now back in again (likely a longer hold now).

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sancho panza
8 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

For people who are not experienced with miners what would be the main area that would trip them up. I'm guessing spreading the allocation across 7-8 miners would help, put a little in each. Otherwise its a large PM holding with bulionvault.

I'm guessing in a PM bull market the miners should do equally well,

Miners are a leveraged play on the physical generally.so if the yellow stuff heads north,they'll go further.Check the physicla charts versus some of the ones DB mentions.

image.png.78cfdc709f24d533cd8b7069e9f5b87c.png

24 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The miners are very volatile as a problem at a mine etc can cause big falls.For myself i tend to focus on 5 to 7 companies and know their assets/balance sheets,price history inside out.Then add them over time in several buys.I think a bull is coming so say one is at $2 (and its been $20) id buy at $2,$1.85,$1.70,$1.55 and then hold.

I also have no fear of them being down.They can sit red for as long as needed.People who cant stomach looking at big losses though shouldnt really be in the space.They should also be part of a portfolio,not an all in gamble.I am around 16% PM miners at the moment in my portfolio and thats likely as high as it will go.I have also taken profits on several over the last year (and sitting on losses on a couple).Sibanye i have owned three times,selling twice for good profits and now back in again (likely a longer hold now).

DB I'm interested in bringing a little geo political security to our Goldies,ie hedging South Africa,focusing on the US and Canada,as well as diversifying amongst the producers of various commodities.

As you know,I monitor a number and refer to both chart and balance sheet.How do you gather info initally on production by country/region when initally sifting?Is it a case of going through the annual reports

Any websites that do some of the hard work for you that you could reccomend.

For balance sheet work,I use Marketwatch

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2 hours ago, leonardratso said:

yep, electricty generators. haha, does bombadier still build trains? or are they all foreign now?

Just from memory I have a feeling it's mainly Seimans and Hitachi now that build the trains (UK at least) ? Will have to do some research. Having said that I do recall seeing an articlein the FT earliar in the year that the government said they want disel trains to be phased out by 2040 too. Will have to dig it out. However, going by the fact how long it takes them do any work to the rail system I would be surprised if they could muster up anything by 2200. HS2 is supposed to be completed by 2035 or something like that. 20 years. China can build a station overnight :D.

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DurhamBorn
16 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Miners are a leveraged play on the physical generally.so if the yellow stuff heads north,they'll go further.Check the physicla charts versus some of the ones DB mentions.

image.png.78cfdc709f24d533cd8b7069e9f5b87c.png

DB I'm interested in bringing a little geo political security to our Goldies,ie hedging South Africa,focusing on the US and Canada,as well as diversifying amongst the producers of various commodities.

As you know,I monitor a number and refer to both chart and balance sheet.How do you gather info initally on production by country/region when initally sifting?Is it a case of going through the annual reports

Any websites that do some of the hard work for you that you could reccomend.

For balance sheet work,I use Marketwatch

I use Mining Feeds for most of it.

http://www.miningfeeds.com/gold-mining-report-all-countries

It goes biggest to smallest.If you click on each company you can then go to the website etc and get the annual reports.

We ignore profits.We are looking for reserves in the ground and probable resources.I dont want a very profitable miner valued at $5 billion with 10 million oz reserves,i want one valued much lower with much higher reserves and resources.Reason being im buying because i think we are going to enter a gold bull.That will see people start to value companies at ounces in the ground,not profit.

 

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DurhamBorn
16 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

Just from memory I have a feeling it's mainly Seimans and Hitachi now that build the trains (UK at least) ? Will have to do some research. Having said that I do recall seeing an articlein the FT earliar in the year that the government said they want disel trains to be phased out by 2040 too. Will have to dig it out. However, going by the fact how long it takes them do any work to the rail system I would be surprised if they could muster up anything by 2200. HS2 is supposed to be completed by 2035 or something like that. 20 years. China can build a station overnight :D.

In a reflation you want the people running the trains not making them.They will of bought them at x amount and be depreciating over say 10 years but due to inflation their income will be rising at a very fast rate,they will also of hedged their fuel three or four years out.That flows direct to the bottom line.Like you say timing doesnt favour the maker of the big capital assets.

Telcos are the same,as are power companies.Anyone with expensive assets that depreciate over say 10/12 years.Bond holders will of funded those at coupons of 3% (Vodaphone some funded at 1.5%) and inflation running at 4%,5%,6%+ will see the income statement explode higher.

For energy,you dont want the solar power maker,you want the silver miner.

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28 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Miners are a leveraged play on the physical generally.so if the yellow stuff heads north,they'll go further.Check the physicla charts versus some of the ones DB mentions.

image.png.78cfdc709f24d533cd8b7069e9f5b87c.png

DB I'm interested in bringing a little geo political security to our Goldies,ie hedging South Africa,focusing on the US and Canada,as well as diversifying amongst the producers of various commodities.

As you know,I monitor a number and refer to both chart and balance sheet.How do you gather info initally on production by country/region when initally sifting?Is it a case of going through the annual reports

Any websites that do some of the hard work for you that you could reccomend.

For balance sheet work,I use Marketwatch

 

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I use Mining Feeds for most of it.

http://www.miningfeeds.com/gold-mining-report-all-countries

It goes biggest to smallest.If you click on each company you can then go to the website etc and get the annual reports.

We ignore profits.We are looking for reserves in the ground and probable resources.I dont want a very profitable miner valued at $5 billion with 10 million oz reserves,i want one valued much lower with much higher reserves and resources.Reason being im buying because i think we are going to enter a gold bull.That will see people start to value companies at ounces in the ground,not profit.

 

Thanks both. I’m interested in miners and trying to learn as much as possible. I’m far too heavily invested in them right now but it suits my risk profile. Foolish maybe but hey. Recently bought Wesdome Gold. Some positive exploration results and a mine coming online, I think. Their management have been buying up stock too. DYOR (beyond reading my post!).

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sancho panza
19 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I use Mining Feeds for most of it.

http://www.miningfeeds.com/gold-mining-report-all-countries

It goes biggest to smallest.If you click on each company you can then go to the website etc and get the annual reports.

We ignore profits.We are looking for reserves in the ground and probable resources.I dont want a very profitable miner valued at $5 billion with 10 million oz reserves,i want one valued much lower with much higher reserves and resources.Reason being im buying because i think we are going to enter a gold bull.That will see people start to value companies at ounces in the ground,not profit.

 

My main issue is time these days.Kids,work,then running the investments for the family on the side.Always trying to cut corners.....

I'm not much of a one for profits on the Goldies.Miner's profits are far too unreliable/unpredictable.

My main issues are geo politcal security-you can't avoid buying SA platinum miners-,balance sheet(debt),reserves.AISC probably in that order(but I've never conciously thought about na order before)

Mining feeds stopped updating the prices some time ago.It's a great resource though for aggregating the companies in seprate spaces.

Worth noting that I see a lot more value at the moment in the bigger miners than the smaller ones.

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sancho panza
13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

In a reflation you want the people running the trains not making them.They will of bought them at x amount and be depreciating over say 10 years but due to inflation their income will be rising at a very fast rate,they will also of hedged their fuel three or four years out.That flows direct to the bottom line.Like you say timing doesnt favour the maker of the big capital assets.

Telcos are the same,as are power companies.Anyone with expensive assets that depreciate over say 10/12 years.Bond holders will of funded those at coupons of 3% (Vodaphone some funded at 1.5%) and inflation running at 4%,5%,6%+ will see the income statement explode higher.

For energy,you dont want the solar power maker,you want the silver miner.

I think solar is the future but it's too early to pick the winners-could be another epic .com bubble.

Some producers are down 95% off peak already.

Is solar one of the reasons you're bullish on silver?

'

10 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

 

Thanks both. I’m interested in miners and trying to learn as much as possible. I’m far too heavily invested in them right now but it suits my risk profile. Foolish maybe but hey. Recently bought Wesdome Gold. Some positive exploration results and a mine coming online, I think. Their management have been buying up stock too. DYOR (beyond reading my post!).

Bit in bold is the key.

If you want to win big in life,you sometimes need to take a risk.I've had some huge risky wins for us over the years and some wopping losses.I've learned from them all.Looking at that Barrick chart you'd run a lot more risk buying Next at £60...........DYOR obviously.

 

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DurhamBorn
7 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I'm not much of a one for profits on the Goldies.Miner's profits are far too unreliable/unpredictable.

My main issues are geo politcal security-you can't avoid buying SA platinum miners-,balance sheet(debt),reserves.AISC probably in that order(but I've never conciously thought about na order before)

Mining feeds stopped updating the prices some time ago.It's a great resource though for aggregating the companies in seprate spaces.

Worth noting that I see a lot more value at the moment in the bigger miners than the smaller ones.

Oh i agree 100% on that.Some of the bigger miners are fantastic value.Some of the bigger ones are valued as if they had never turned a profit.I have no doubt if gold runs there are 10 baggers even among the bigger companies.

Yes it was a shame mining feeds stopped updating the prices,it was great for looking across the complex during trading hours.

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DurhamBorn
2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I think solar is the future but it's too early to pick the winners-could be another epic .com bubble.

Some producers are down 95% off peak already.

Is solar one of the reasons you're bullish on silver?

'

Bit in bold is the key.

If you want to win big in life,you sometimes need to take a risk.I've had some huge risky wins for us over the years and some wopping losses.I've learned from them all.Looking at that Barrick chart you'd run a lot more risk buying Next at £60...........DYOR obviously.

 

Yes solar is one of the reasons im bullish on silver.Its going to be massive just as investment demand is increasing as well.I think there is going to be a .com style bubble in the miners.Barrick is a great buy for anyone who wants a real blue chip gold miner.

Solar is going to also need a lot of battery storage and also companies who can control/measure who produces what ,store it and then sell it with a block chain type ledger in real time.Centrica own the best company in the world at this (not many people know that).Another possible bubble area in the next cycle is energy companies with this sort of technology.Big oil might start to buy up the space though before the big profits can come through.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
4 hours ago, spunko2010 said:

You can't upload PDF files here, I assume this is the format...? Currently only images are permitted, but I can try to enable PDF files. The main problem is that they are large files normally, so it may be better to use something free like Scribd.

(The larger the file the more of a security issue it can be potentially)

 

https://www.scribd.com/upload-document

 

If it doesn't work I can look into hosting PDF files here.

 
The way I'll share it is via a file sharing site...there are MANY on the web...
 
 
OK, I take that as a YES then?
 
This book Jesse Livermore "How to Trade In Stocks" is a EX-Library lol xD scanned 1940 original, in regards to copyright i think that may of expired, (75 year old books in USA go out of copyright) anyway i think its OK to share as I'm only lending it to a few good friends here...:D
 
here's the link to down load this book.
 
For those that are PARANOID that they'll get an virus from this pdf ...here are virustotal results its 100% CLEAN
 
WARNING!  WARNING!  WARNING!
 
When you go to the above link to down load this book, click the orange down load button at the top right hand side of the page, be very careful as you'll get all sorts of pop up BS, NEVER EVER DownLoad an .exe file ... just make sure the file you DL is called : 
dosbods_Jesse_Livermore-How_To_Trade_In_Stocks_(1940_original)_dosbods.pdf
 
if you want to read this book on kindle or whatever you can convert the pdf file to say epub online for free here:
 
Its a BRILLIANT book, OK a lot to do with trend trading, HOWEVER the trading psychology is pure GOLD ...second to none, it really is a MUST read for anyone who's into trading/investing.
 

I hope @DurhamBorn  reads it, sure would like your thoughts - also you could mention the book & Jesse Livermore to your good friend that taught you about macro investing - as i understand hes from the USA?

Anyway enjoy it folks!:Beer:

BTW, I was in Tesco's yesterday @7pm and they had all the baskets out at the vegetable section, so just went and helped myself, got 3 packets of mushrooms usual price £1.00 ...reduced down to 5p!
 
I was just about to grab some potatoe reductions, when a staff member came over and asked what i was doing, as all the others (vultures xD ) when waiting in line!
 
I told her ...well usually we don't wait and there all fighting for the reductions, anyway after a bit of who-ha ...she let me keep the mushrooms and asked me to go to the back of the queue at which point i buggered off! I'm going back toight for some more FUN!

 

 

 

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