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swiss_democracy_for_all

The bent football thread.

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Having monitored the football betting markets closely for almost a year, a while back, I’m absolutely certain that many football matches or sometimes particular moments in football matches, are fixed. It’s a dirty game on many levels. As the World Cup is upon us, and it’s in Russia, I’m expecting a few notable examples in the next few weeks. This thread is for people to post the most obvious examples, if anyone cares. 

I’ll start - am not monitoring betting markets but would be surprised if there wasn’t a flood of money on one side of at least one of the markets affected by Rashford scoring for England in the 13th minute. The Costa Rican goalie let that in, in slo-mo it was obvious. 

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To be honest I think it would be harder to find an area of the game that isn't filthy.

FIFA have got to be one of the most openly and brazenly bent organisations on the planet and that's the stuff we've borne witness to. I'd imagine what goes on behind closed doors would make Bernie Madoff bounce his eyebrows.

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Posted (edited)

I only watch price movements with a view to arbing and will bet on absolutely anything as long as it's an arb. I couldn't get on Gimnastic as the bookie had suspended bets.

https://www.givemesport.com/1323267-why-la-liga-are-investigating-second-division-game-between-huesca-and-nastic-for-matchfixing

I gather from various angry folk on Twitter that in the latter stages of the game one of the Huesca players quite blatantly attempted to score an own goal, and Huesca's own twitter account at one point tweeted a "0-2" update before deleting it. Pretty naughty, really. I once made a reasonable sum piling on an Italian team that steamed from 5-1 to 2-1 on the exchanges. They lost 3-0, and I did wonder if the person who was supposed to be fixing that match ended up wearing concrete boots...

Edited by Rave

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Snooker's my guess for being fixed, given it's so massive in China where I heard they love betting on stuff.

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1 hour ago, Sgt Hartman said:

To be honest I think it would be harder to find an area of the game that isn't filthy.

FIFA have got to be one of the most openly and brazenly bent organisations on the planet and that's the stuff we've borne witness to. I'd imagine what goes on behind closed doors would make Bernie Madoff bounce his eyebrows.

Bloody smartass dosbodders stating the obvious trying to kill my thread! :)

5 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I think many sports are fixed.  Probably low on the fixing scale are......

 

er...

er...

Top 10 men’s tennis seemed fairly clean, lower level stuff particularly mid ranking female EE and Russians was frequently bent. Some first sets lost for cash at very high level IMO. 

Snooker so bent it’s difficult to bet on, or was back then. 

The only markets where bent match bets were generally allowed to stand unless stupidly obvious were football markets, probably a reflection of the size of the markets, sometimes huge even for a minor European game. 

 

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6 hours ago, Funn3r said:

Snooker's my guess for being fixed, given it's so massive in China where I heard they love betting on stuff.

So easy to miss frame ball... It's the nerves innit. 

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I used to be able to make a packet on rugby league, where games are higher scoring than union - bookies would price winning margins on the union margins distribution. So I'd take the higher margins as a longer tail to the distribution in league. 

I used to write out these bets in bookies so they probably weren't tracked very well but lost the edge when online betting came around. Clearl some analysis was done whereas before the odd £1k to & 2k win three times a season went under the radar. 

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7 hours ago, The Masked Tulip said:

Sea angling competitions. When young saw some suspicious catches at beach competitions where people have caught the fish either boat fishing or some other means not allowed in the competition.

Landing packets of cod in batter was probably the giveaway.

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If there's money to be made there will be surely fixing and cheating going on. Never been a massive gambler mainly as I hate to lose money. I could never make any headwind in football, pretty much a 50% strike rate.

The way I have a flutter now has completely changed all thanks to Brexit. Had a cheeky £100 bet and winning that gave me the balance to comfortably bet a different way. Up next was the Rio Olympics and there were so many opportunties while watching live to coin it in. My favourite had to be in the velodrome, German lady won the first heat in the final against the British lady comfortbly. Odds stayed at 5.0. Then onto Trump, wow did I win "bigly". I watch the UFC less now as a little harder for me to stay up, but if I fancy it is another good one to get really favourable odds. Watch live and keep an eye on an underdog especially with knockout power. Sense a swing then place the bet to win by knockout. So now I really only take a bet if the odds are 4/1, 5/1, 6/1 or when there's a head to head and the favourite is drastically underpriced. There is just too much cheating, fixing and luck needed that I want a favourable price to take that risk on. It's surprising how often the underdog wins too xD

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People complain about cycling being full of drugs, but at least they cleaned house of everyone connected with Puerto.

Football just collectively stuck its fingers in its ears and went lalala not listening.  And has been doing so ever since.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/cycling/12092102/Blood-samples-in-a-Barcelona-freezer-could-spark-biggest-ever-doping-scandal-as-Operation-Puerto-resurfaces.html

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I think that it is very harsh to say the Costa Rican goalie deliberately let the goal in. Certainly he made no obvious movement towards it but it looks more like he couldn't. It happens rarely nowadays but you always used to see goalkeepers "rooted to the spot" and just watch as the ball sailed past them. The goalie probably realised he couldn't stop it and just couldn't get his body to move (sounds silly but any player will understand). He plays for Real Madrid so is unlikely to be short of money. Why risk losing everything?

The things that are more likely to be fixed are the things like time of the first throw in where it would be impossible to prove otherwise, or games in the lower leagues where the players need the money. There was also a rash of floodlight failures in London games about twenty years ago which was more than suspicious.

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2 minutes ago, Stunley Andwin said:

I think that it is very harsh to say the Costa Rican goalie deliberately let the goal in. Certainly he made no obvious movement towards it but it looks more like he couldn't. It happens rarely nowadays but you always used to see goalkeepers "rooted to the spot" and just watch as the ball sailed past them. The goalie probably realised he couldn't stop it and just couldn't get his body to move (sounds silly but any player will understand). He plays for Real Madrid so is unlikely to be short of money. Why risk losing everything?

The things that are more likely to be fixed are the things like time of the first throw in where it would be impossible to prove otherwise, or games in the lower leagues where the players need the money. There was also a rash of floodlight failures in London games about twenty years ago which was more than suspicious.

If you watch the slo-mo from behind Rashford, watch the keeper's eyes - he sees the shot very early and is locked on it's trajectory - sign of a quality keeper. He knows it's going to his right and high, shifts his weight onto the correct foot and is ready to jump/dive in plenty of time, he has fast reactions - then doesn't bother. Looked very bad indeed to me.

If you were very very kind you could say maybe he thought it was going over, but even then keepers are meant to cover the goal in case of a late dip/swerve. 

 

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Wow, you are harsh! It does look a bit weird, he certainly could have jumped higher. Looks to me like he was slightly out of position and fooled by the flight of the ball, it was an outstanding shot and had an unusual flight path. I have watched it another ten or so times and it does look more suspicious each time I watch it, particularly from the camera behind the goal. He probably could have at least touched the ball, if not saved it.

Navas is good but not world class in my opinion. Very few goalkeepers could have saved that in my opinion, maybe some of the really top keepers could have, someone taller like a mid 90s Schmeichel or mid 2000s Cech?

If we are talking about keepers, then what about Karius last week. Two absolutely laughable errors. Would anyone have the balls to fix a game by making such blatant mistakes?

 

 

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Just watched the highlights now. Hard to tell from the camera angle but even if he wanted to could he have saved it? Certainly didn't put much effort in to trying to save it though.

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25 minutes ago, Stunley Andwin said:

Wow, you are harsh! It does look a bit weird, he certainly could have jumped higher. Looks to me like he was slightly out of position and fooled by the flight of the ball, it was an outstanding shot and had an unusual flight path. I have watched it another ten or so times and it does look more suspicious each time I watch it, particularly from the camera behind the goal. He probably could have at least touched the ball, if not saved it.

Navas is good but not world class in my opinion. Very few goalkeepers could have saved that in my opinion, maybe some of the really top keepers could have, someone taller like a mid 90s Schmeichel or mid 2000s Cech?

If we are talking about keepers, then what about Karius last week. Two absolutely laughable errors. Would anyone have the balls to fix a game by making such blatant mistakes?

Poor Karius will never live that performance down. You'd have to have kidnapped his entire family and be threatening to feed them alive to pigs to get a man to do that in the CL final and ruin his career, I think that wasn't a fix.

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It's been all over the news the last couple of days that Karius has been receiving treatment for a suspected concussion, which he apparently got from a clash with Ramos in the first half. True or spin, who knows.

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8 minutes ago, Goat said:

Okay, so the Costa Rica goalie is also first choice for a small club in Spain that goes by the name of Real Madrid, you might have heard of them.

I would guess that his salary is somewhere ITRO £5,000,000 per annum so my question for you is how big a bung do you think it would take to get him to throw a game for his side?

A friendly match like the one the other night? Don't think they care much about them, he might do it as a favour for a friend even. A lot of the dodgy betting patterns occur in matches that don't mean much. A big final critical to his legacy as a player? That's different, you'd probably have to threaten his family(betting syndicates have done this). 

Remember Bruce Grobbelaar? He wasn't poor. But he wouldn't have thrown the CL final.

 

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6 minutes ago, Goat said:

Sorry, don't see it, even as a favour, you don't risk a career in top flight football for favours.

First off, I'm fairly sure that the authorities would care a great deal if evidence of match fixing came to light in an international friendly, and if you wanted them to care even more then doing it against a high profile opponent is the way to go.

Secondly, how do you plausibly fix a goal at a certain time or by a certain player, I mean England had 6 shots on target all night, how do you make player x put in a shot at time y that looks good enough to beat the keeper but still needs a bit of extra help to go in.

 

And the reason is that those matches aren't being played by elite players but instead ones who are some way down the pecking order, and are thus more susceptible to bribery.

If you're picking up a few hundred quid a week playing league 1 or 2 football, or eking out a living playing ATP challenger events then maybe a couple of grand in cash might turn your head, if you're picking up 20 times as much every week then not so much.

 

Early 90's, different era, much less money in the game, I think the top players were making £500,000 a year, nowadays there are players getting that per week.

Plus nothing was ever proven and no games were ever thrown.

I understand your arguments, they're quite good if not perfect. All I can say is, if you monitor (and act upon) betting markets closely for a year, I doubt very much if you will share the same faith.  If it looks, walks and quacks like a duck.....

The only thing I will say is I can't remember in that time a game/match that the players would consider very important  having sudden massive swings in the market followed by a shock result. Finals and the like can probably only be fixed via the referee.

Regarding Rashford's goal, here it is - you can't see the keepers eyes quite as well as on the TV, but watch it again a few times, and ask yourself if a goalkeeper of that top class could have saved it. BTW if there were no funny betting patterns (I no longer follow so have no idea) then I'll accept it was just the keeper being shit.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Goat said:

Without knowing what markets you're following or what you've noticed I can't really comment, but isn't this exactly what the authorities, betting companies etc do precisely to prevent this sort of thing.

One thought does occur, the market for these minor events is presumably quite thin, so one moderate bet could move it quite a lot producing "sudden massive swings".

Not saying it can't happen, but for a lower league game the market is small enough that any significant attempt at fixing should be obvious, and the amount needed to corrupt a multi-millionaire playing in a top level event is going to be huge, so there would have to be absolutely enormous amounts bet to make it worthwhile.

Believe me, we're talking many, many millions. A lot from Asia, the markets used to move around as the Asians woke up or went to sleep.  As a tiny player who got a bit overexcited, I once had >40k GBP riding on a Serie A game that had obviously been fixed as the odds went up and down like a whore's drawers and the result was a shock. I made about 4K that evening, had to scramble a bit as some bookies cancelled the bets close to kick-off(They know when they're being done over).

I would imagine the markets are huge in Premier League, Serie A and La Liga now for every game, and the WC will be colossal. Log on to Betfair and check it out, they used to display the market size, maybe not any more.

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As I remarked to someone earlier today, I wouldnt be surprised if somewhere out there is a blow for blow script and stage directions for each and every match that will take place in the world cup: Lots of money to be made by dodgy people getting people in a money-fixated sport thats dodgy -rotten to the core would mean that Id actually be more susprised if there wasnt.

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