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The dud Kangaroo bounce thread


sancho panza

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sancho panza
2 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Amazing stuff.Politically,the will to price young people out has wilted away

Looking at ANZ chart.They're looking ripe for a plunge.As soon as substantial losses start,tehy'll be reining in credit.

28 years without a recession.....................what's coming is going to hurt a lot of ego's

'The Reserve Bank appears comfortable with the pace of property price falls so far, with governor Philip Lowe indicating that lending to owner-occupiers remains solid, in a statement released after yesterday's board meeting'

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https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/australia-auto-crash-on-top-of-housing-crash-LcD6rWgcykWNbiRCXFmdfA/

'New car sales in Australia are down for the sixth consecutive month. The real numbers are worse.

 

Here's the punchline: Dealers report the downturn is sharper than what the reported sales figures show.

Official figures show new-car sales hit the brakes for the sixth month in a row in September.

The slowdown means dealers are overstocked as they head into the quietest months on the calendar and trying to clear end-of-year models.

September’s downturn of 5.5 per cent over the same month last year — to 94,711 reported sales — doesn’t tell the full story. Dealers claim the figures are inflated and the real position is much worse.

One major metropolitan dealer says “there was a mad scramble” in the last days of the month to report cars as sold. Industry insiders say anywhere from 10 to 20 per cent of vehicles in a given month are “cyber cars”, a term given to vehicles counted as sold on a computer but not in the real world.

Congratulations to Australia

It appears they can lie at least as good down under as we do in the US.'

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Chewing Grass
8 minutes ago, Zanu Bob said:

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/australia-auto-crash-on-top-of-housing-crash-LcD6rWgcykWNbiRCXFmdfA/

'New car sales in Australia are down for the sixth consecutive month. The real numbers are worse.

 

Here's the punchline: Dealers report the downturn is sharper than what the reported sales figures show.

Official figures show new-car sales hit the brakes for the sixth month in a row in September.

The slowdown means dealers are overstocked as they head into the quietest months on the calendar and trying to clear end-of-year models.

September’s downturn of 5.5 per cent over the same month last year — to 94,711 reported sales — doesn’t tell the full story. Dealers claim the figures are inflated and the real position is much worse.

One major metropolitan dealer says “there was a mad scramble” in the last days of the month to report cars as sold. Industry insiders say anywhere from 10 to 20 per cent of vehicles in a given month are “cyber cars”, a term given to vehicles counted as sold on a computer but not in the real world.

Congratulations to Australia

It appears they can lie at least as good down under as we do in the US.'

Over here they are blaming 1) Brexit and 2) New Emissions Regs which is bollocks.

Your average pleb doesn't think that deeply and just wants a new motor 1) because their old one has something expensive wrong with it 2) their lease has expired 3) they want to feel important

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2 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Over here they are blaming 1) Brexit and 2) New Emissions Regs which is bollocks.

Your average pleb doesn't think that deeply and just wants a new motor 1) because their old one has something expensive wrong with it 2) their lease has expired 3) they want to feel important

4) they feel financially secure (self deluding or not)...

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4 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Over here they are blaming 1) Brexit and 2) New Emissions Regs which is bollocks.

Your average pleb doesn't think that deeply and just wants a new motor 1) because their old one has something expensive wrong with it 2) their lease has expired 3) they want to feel important

My lease car has had an extra year added to it as the cost of company car tax on new diesels is so high and the supply/choice of hybrids is so poor.. 

This is from the lease company who have offered a 1 year extension to all company car drivers.. meaning I know of at least 5 people in my direct circle who are waiting for 2019 hybrid models to be released, hanging onto their 4 year old cars that normally go back! 

The lease company is huge so this scenario can be multiplied across many companies.. it directly relates to high taxes on new registered diesels.. 

for example:

My 1.6 diesel Citroen 

my company pays me £70 a month as it’s under my company car budget!

If I order the exact same 1.6 Citroen diesel it will now cost me nearly £150 a month for the same car due to changes in tax regulations for newly listed diesels.. 

i think the lease company are worried about being stuck with diesel, the company car driver wants the tax insentive from the hybrid.. 

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Chewing Grass
4 hours ago, macca said:

cost me nearly £150 a month for the same car due to changes in tax regulations for newly listed diesels.. 

i think the lease company are worried about being stuck with diesel, the company car driver wants the tax insentive from the hybrid.. 

A fine example of how taxation is used as a tool and disproportionally affects markets.

However when it affects jobs etc it will never be mentioned as the cause.

 

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sancho panza
11 hours ago, macca said:

My lease car has had an extra year added to it as the cost of company car tax on new diesels is so high and the supply/choice of hybrids is so poor.. 

This is from the lease company who have offered a 1 year extension to all company car drivers.. meaning I know of at least 5 people in my direct circle who are waiting for 2019 hybrid models to be released, hanging onto their 4 year old cars that normally go back! 

The lease company is huge so this scenario can be multiplied across many companies.. it directly relates to high taxes on new registered diesels.. 

for example:

My 1.6 diesel Citroen 

my company pays me £70 a month as it’s under my company car budget!

If I order the exact same 1.6 Citroen diesel it will now cost me nearly £150 a month for the same car due to changes in tax regulations for newly listed diesels.. 

i think the lease company are worried about being stuck with diesel, the company car driver wants the tax insentive from the hybrid.. 

FAscinating insight.Didn't think of the fact that the lease companies don't want the diesels back.

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8 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

FAscinating insight.Didn't think of the fact that the lease companies don't want the diesels back.

I think I posted in another thread that when we are back in Oz (soonish I think), I am very aware of the risk of getting a car which becomes affectively valueless in 3-5 years due to tech and tax changes.  Looks like the tax death blow on diesel may be here already..!

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1 minute ago, wherebee said:

I think I posted in another thread that when we are back in Oz (soonish I think), I am very aware of the risk of getting a car which becomes affectively valueless in 3-5 years due to tech and tax changes.  Looks like the tax death blow on diesel may be here already..!

I didnt think theyd change the tax in the UK on diesels, whatever band it is now will be the same in the future ... or so i hope!

Was looking to run my 2011 diesel into the ground as its only £30 a year to tax.

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1 hour ago, Banned said:

I didnt think theyd change the tax in the UK on diesels, whatever band it is now will be the same in the future ... or so i hope!

Was looking to run my 2011 diesel into the ground as its only £30 a year to tax.

If you already have one, not much point in worrying.  But if, like me, you'll need to get a new transport, with electric coming up fast, rules on diesel changing by the day, and the possibility of another oil shock, guessing wrong would be very bad financially.  I'll probably buy something second hand, cheap and shitty for a couple of years.

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3 hours ago, Banned said:

I didnt think theyd change the tax in the UK on diesels, whatever band it is now will be the same in the future ... or so i hope!

Was looking to run my 2011 diesel into the ground as its only £30 a year to tax.

The cost of a company car is broken down into different elements.

cost of the car.

resale value/ease of sale.

repair and maintenance cost of car over its rental contract.

And of course emmisions and cost tax.. 

the emmisions and roadtax have moved up 1 band.. 

but I think mainly this is the lease company looking too future government policy on diesel cars and pushing up there quotes to company car drivers just in case.. 

they want to have some wiggle room in 4 years time in case they can’t shift all the diesel cars they get back.. 

hence the cost of diesels has rocketed on my company car list!

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/102928/new-diesel-car-tax-rules-april-2018-changes-explained%3famp

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2 hours ago, MrXxx said:

3% Gross yield max on such an illiquid asset...are people stupid?!

Max 2% if it’s an apartment due to all the strata levies, buildings insurance and the like, what could go wrong..

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sancho panza

The main metric I rely on for pricing is rental yields.Even in the UK,and Leicestershire for instance,the upper end of the market works off a 2%-3% gross yield.Why buy at that level-allowing for moving costs and upkeep,the numbers only really stack up if either asset values move north or you stay put for 30 years.

11 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

'Low rental yields a shared warning sign

One numerical comparison that is enlightening is the rental return on homes versus the purchase price, known as the yield, to see how expensive Australia is compared to Ireland.

A lower yield means buying a property is relatively expensive compared to renting, often a sign the market may be overvalued.

The analyst who wrote this note, Rossa White, a former student of Professor Harmon who is now chief economist at the Irish Government's National Treasury Management Agency, observed at the time:

"Property is a risky asset, like equities, corporate bonds and commodities. Net yields of 1.5 per cent, which are commonplace in Dublin, look ridiculous compared with a risk-free rate of 3.5 per cent on ten-year gilts [government bonds]," he noted.

"The fundamentals suggest that it will be an adjustment in prices, rather than rents, that will eventually bring valuations down to more realistic levels."

Sydney and Melbourne currently have gross yields, across houses and apartments, of 3.2 and 3.1 per cent respectively, a bit higher than peak bubble in Dublin and than the current Australian 10-year bond rate of 2.7 per cent, but still a very low return compared to other investments.'

 

 

4 hours ago, MrXxx said:

3% Gross yield max on such an illiquid asset...are people stupid?!

Greedy? That used to stability that things have markets no longer price in instability?(hattip Minsky)

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https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/debt-counselor-phones-at-capacity-in-australia-over-mortgage-and-rent-issues-v4wU05mJ0UKgNVcaPV1TRQ/

'Down under, a Record Number of Older Australians are in Financial Trouble.

Key Points

  • The National Debt Helpline — a federal government-run financial counselling service — said it's on track to receive a record number of cases through its call centers this year — many from older Australians who can't meet their mortgage or rent payments.
  • Many calls are from older Australians who can't meet mortgage or rent payments.
  • Counselors have started fielding calls from people struggling to switch to principal and interest mortgage payments.

Phones Never Stop Ringing

"The phones just never stop now," financial counselor Greg said. "They're just going day after day, after day. "You put the phone down, you pick the phone up again."

I sat with Greg while he took some calls. One man who called in had lost his job, and the bank was on his back about meeting his repayments. Greg coached him through his options.

"Have you approached the lender in relation to a hardship arrangement, or have you approached the lender to talk about reducing your payments, putting payments on hold, until you get back into employment?" Greg asked.

Short Staffed

Karen Cox co-ordinates the Financial Rights Legal Center, which runs the call center.

"Call volumes are huge," she said. "We're at capacity in terms of the number of calls we can take, in fact we're a bit short staffed at the moment."

Ms. Cox said hundreds of thousands of Australians struggled with credit card and mortgage debt — the most she has seen in her career managing financial help call centers.

 

Gee!

Gee who coulda possibly thunk this could happen?

Didn't we hear that home prices only rose, and buying homes was a retirement plan.'

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This timing is shithouse - I'm going to be back in Oz soon landing right in the middle of what looks like being a HUGE fucking bust.  we have 30 years of kidults who have never experienced a shortage of lattes, plus a couple of hundred thousand enrichers (especially somalis in melbourne) who are used to free shit.

I think I should go long on window replacement firms.

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3 minutes ago, wherebee said:

This timing is shithouse - I'm going to be back in Oz soon landing right in the middle of what looks like being a HUGE fucking bust.  we have 30 years of kidults who have never experienced a shortage of lattes, plus a couple of hundred thousand enrichers (especially somalis in melbourne) who are used to free shit.

I think I should go long on window replacement firms.

My cousin lives in Sydney,says there's been trouble between Christians and Muslims there for years...you heard that?

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Just now, sancho panza said:

My cousin lives in Sydney,says there's been trouble between Christians and Muslims there for years...you heard that?

Oh yeah.  western and bits of SW Sydney are hotspots.  It's not really Christians vs Muslim though, it's Muslims vs everyone who doesn't believe.  Plus, to be fair, the Lebanese gangs who are involved in a lot of the drug trade include both Christian and Muslim troops.

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On 08/10/2018 at 14:47, Banned said:

I didnt think theyd change the tax in the UK on diesels, whatever band it is now will be the same in the future ... or so i hope!

Was looking to run my 2011 diesel into the ground as its only £30 a year to tax.

They don't change road tax retrospectively on vehicle - the price you are paying now is broadly the amount you'll be paying as long as you own that vehicle (subject to small inflationary increases).

The government know that these vehicles reach their end of life generally after 15 years anyway. The best bargains out there at the moment are low emissions diesels registered on or before 31st March 2017 - before the new rules/higher tax bands came into play.

For a lot of people, the car/s they've bought in the last 2-3 years will likely be the last vehicle they ever own:

 I bumped into a Brazilian autonomous vehicle engineer at a party sometime in 2012 and he assured me that there'd be an autonomous vehicle on the road by 2019/20'ish with the progress the industry was making in general, and that a full scale rollout wouldbe available from 2021/22 onwards. In hindsight, the timescales look accurate'ish, and it will likely change the nature of our towns and cities and how and where people live and work, as well as travel itself. Will we own vehicles in 5/10/20 years' time, will it be worth it when the biggest cost to taking a taxi is the labour of the driver themselves (at around 80-90% of overall cost)?

It's predicted that with vehicles sitting idle over 95% of the time, it could cut the total numbers of vehicles on our roads by 80% or more. Will it get rid of traffic jams and rush hour travel? If so, will people bother living in city centres any longer if it's much quicker, easier and cheaper to travel in and out from further afar?

It occurred to me the other day that my 1 year-old daughter will likely never learn to drive a car at any point, and we'll be perhaps the last generation to drive (I'm 35). 

 

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