By Frank Hovis
The reserve figures are secret these days, especially with the partial sale of Aramco coming up, and are commonly believed to be overstated as they're not going down: new finds magically replace extracted oil.
But there have been no new big finds since the 1970s. So that seems "unlikely".
Current claimed reserves are roughly at the level of 1989 - 260bn barrels - but that was a huge hike upon the 1987 figure of 170bn of easily recoverable oil and suggests the inclusion of probable / possible reserves.
So going back to that 1987 figure as the last undisputed figure and bearing in mind no big new finds since start deducting the c. 10m barrels a day production, 3.65bn per year.
Thirty years' extraction to 2017 is 109.5bn of that 1987 reserve. The remaining 60.5bn will last a mere 16.5 years which isn't very long at all.
Now there will be unders and overs: improved extraction techniques Vs sea water contamination of fields from previous extraction techniques which will blur this figure.
So that 16.5 may be 20 years or it may be 15. Either way it's not long.
Then it's back to being goat herders and no more funding the export of islam and islamic terrorism.
Not long now
By The Masked Tulip
Russia has issued a notice to airman (NOTAM) warning of an impending 'rocket test' off the eastern coast of Libya next week. From May 24th through the 27th.
Apparently they have two land attack capable cruise missile capable warships in the area.
Russia is backing a Libyan general in the east of the country who is at odds with the UN backed government in Tripoli.
This looks to be something to do with the oil fields and ISIL controlling quite a few of them at the moment.
Is Putin helping his man in Libya and/or looking to reduce ISIL cash flows?
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