LSL Acadata:0% MoM, after 11 months of falls.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, satch said:

I was confused because earlier you said ‘banks’  ie

‘IMHO this lasdt 10 years has been all about the banks. Without sales volumes though the banks can't lend. The banks will demand a crash...now they are solvent. This is something Venger and I agreed on, we think the banks have been recapitalised and are now going to crash the market.’

So bankers from HSBC, RBS, nationwide, metro etc will decide together to raise mortgage rates to what level? Shall we assume a new mortgage svr of 8% ( and only mortgage rates as business lending needs to be sustained) where current mortgage svr are around 4%  to ‘crash’ the market  so they can buy houses from forced sellers at a knock-down price.

During this phase transactions will plummet, no one wants to buy a falling asset, followed by price drops from forced sellers who can no longer hold on and the individual people whose work in banks (bankers) will buy them all up. Assuming a price fall 40% fall over two years how will the banks survive (not that the bankers care) with very low transaction rates ie people borrowing money with minimal new cash income as many borrowers will be on fixed rates. Would a banker buy after one year and say a 20% drop knowing the property would be another 20% cheaper next year. And the banker-buyers will need access to cheap finance or cash rather than borrow. Anyway assuming it works for them and after two years they have bought lots of property at 40% below current price then what? I assume re-inflate the property bubble to sell at the top of the next peak and reap the profit.

 

"at it this way, if a banker inflates..."

Not just bankers, the rich in general.

I'm failing to see your point, your failing to see mine, let's agree to disagree. You're most likely right as you've typed more.

[satch]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

"at it this way, if a banker inflates..."

Not just bankers, the rich in general.

I'm failing to see your point, your failing to see mine, let's agree to disagree. You're most likely right as you've typed more.

Fine, I have asked some questions you will not or can't answer and you are under no obligation to do so. If my thoughts were that stupid then you would explain in simple terms why the scenario is / could be so wrong. If you fail to see my point in what I have outlined then there is very little I can do as it is straight forward and in plain English.

Oh and I thought you were better than needing to resort to snide comments such as ; ' You're most likely right as you've typed more. '

[satch]

Some points from latest reports both published in June 2018, the Land Registry uses actual sold data.

From the LSL Report – May 2018

The UK housing market remained resilient showing a very slight rise in the annual house price rate in May (from 2.1% to 2.2%) following 11 months of falls. The positive performance in May means the market has narrowly avoided a full year of slowing house price growth. On a monthly basis prices were flat with no change on April.

The average house price in England and Wales is recorded at £305,654, up more than £6,000 on a year ago, when prices remained below the symbolic £300,000 mark. Transactions are down on the levels of last year, however, by 6% in the first five months compared to 2017.

Despite the lack of movement in prices, there is one big change in the market this month: London and the South East are no longer a brake on the market.

From the Land Registry – April 2018

The average price of a property in the UK was £226,906

UK house prices rose by 3.9% in the year to April 2018, down from 4.2% in the year to March 2018.

The monthly price change for a property in the UK was 1.2%.

The number of transactions on residential properties with a value of £40,000 or greater was 100,190. This is 2.7% lower compared to a year ago. Between March and April 2018, transactions increased by 3.5%.