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TheCountOfNowhere

General Election 2018

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1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Seems to me the Tories have turned into the caring sharing party almost over night.

That means 1 thing.

Leadership challenger and a new election.

Whatcha think ?

You may be right, but i think its a more general "we were almost beaten in the last election (thanks to buying the consultants spiel) and those same consultants now say their focus groups now say this that and the other so we'll dump all our promises and try something else' line of thinking.

All I see is a bunch of scoundrels scurrying around without any real clue of what will give them a clear majority. I personally doubt we'll have any 'early elections' any time soon. Happy to be proven wrong though. 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Seems to me the Tories have turned into the caring sharing party almost over night.

That means 1 thing.

Leadership challenger and a new election.

Whatcha think ?

The Cons dont need to hold a GE to change leaders.

They are pretty good at changing leader.

Less good at choosing a good one though.

 

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, spygirl said:

The Cons dont need to hold a GE to change leaders.

They are pretty good at changing leader.

Less good at choosing a good one though.

 

That's not what I meant.

They'll change leader, then he'll cry..."I want a mandate"....at which point Steptoe will win and all hell will break lose.

PMSL....Corb0yn automatically changed to steptoe.  Now, that's naughty.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

That's not what I meant.

They'll change leader, then he'll cry..."I want a mandate"....at which point Steptoe will win and all hell will break lose.

PMSL....Corb0yn automatically changed to steptoe.  Now, that's naughty.

I dont think Jezza will win.

The only opportunity he had was in the first 6 months of becoming leader.

The more he + his team open the mouths, the less voters they get outside of Islington.

 

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9 minutes ago, spygirl said:

I dont think Jezza will win.

The only opportunity he had was in the first 6 months of becoming leader.

The more he + his team open the mouths, the less voters they get outside of Islington.

 

Sure? He's pretty good at courting the young and stupid, and the fact that the young have been more or less abandoned by several successive governments in favour of the housing lobby, banks, homeowners and immigrants makes them an easy target. 

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15 minutes ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

Sure? He's pretty good at courting the young and stupid, and the fact that the young have been more or less abandoned by several successive governments in favour of the housing lobby, banks, homeowners and immigrants makes them an easy target. 

I think the young and stupid may be a bit annoyed that Jezza is not fighting hard enough to block Brexit*, which may be affecting his popularity. 

*Jez as we know is part of the old socialist lot that don't like the EU because it's too right wing, but I suspect that concept would be lost on a lot of Millenials. 

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I think May has decided there will be a showdown with her remainer MPs resulting in a vote of confidence that the government will lose so she’s salting the earth so to speak. 

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Lots of stuff going on in the background ATM.  There is certainly a 'plan for', but it's not baked in.

IMO we'll have something before May 19.  Not sure when.  October is a good candidate, but lots has to happen betwixt here and there.

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My best guess is that nothing will happen.

Tory waverers will fight shy of another election fearing that they may lose.

Steptoe is failing to make any ground amongst the population, now enlightened and annoyed by what they saw at Grenfell (Steptoe has closely allied himself with this, probably to his considerable disadvantage) and suspicious about the so called Windrush Scandal in that they wonder 'Did all these people, all this time, never go abroad at all'

Just how did someone get stuck in Jamaica unable to return to the UK? He must have had some sort of passport to go there.

Steptoe of course wants Brexit, preferably in a manner that does as much damage as possible to the Tories.

Without Brexit his and McDonnell's dream of a Marxist utopia will not be allowed by the EU

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1 hour ago, Byron said:

My best guess is that nothing will happen.

Tory waverers will fight shy of another election fearing that they may lose.

Steptoe is failing to make any ground amongst the population, now enlightened and annoyed by what they saw at Grenfell (Steptoe has closely allied himself with this, probably to his considerable disadvantage) and suspicious about the so called Windrush Scandal in that they wonder 'Did all these people, all this time, never go abroad at all'

Just how did someone get stuck in Jamaica unable to return to the UK? He must have had some sort of passport to go there.

Steptoe of course wants Brexit, preferably in a manner that does as much damage as possible to the Tories.

Without Brexit his and McDonnell's dream of a Marxist utopia will not be allowed by the EU

Think Grenfell was a bit of a watershed for Labour support too. Filled with recent migrants on benefits. Add on the 100k per unit refurb "done on the cheap by the murdering Tories" and suddenly the cost of welfare is shown to be telephone numbers. And where is the fis al advantage.

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11 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Seems to me the Tories have turned into the caring sharing party almost over night.

That means 1 thing.

Leadership challenger and a new election.

Whatcha think ?

I think they have realised that legalising cannabis would not only be a vote winner with the young but would also bring in a lot of tax revenue, and even uber-conservative USA has done it so the trend is going towards legalisation worldwide. It is a no-brainer.

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9 minutes ago, Game_of_Homes said:

I think they have realised that legalising cannabis would not only be a vote winner with the young but would also bring in a lot of tax revenue, and even uber-conservative USA has done it so the trend is going towards legalisation worldwide. It is a no-brainer.

Although at the moment they seem to be resisting change, I am sure they will soon legalise it just as Cameron legalised gay marriage.

They just want to be sure that there are votes in legalising it.

(For the Tories, probably not, same as gay marriage, but to be seen standing out against a global trend is not helpful.)

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12 hours ago, Byron said:

Although at the moment they seem to be resisting change, I am sure they will soon legalise it just as Cameron legalised gay marriage.

They just want to be sure that there are votes in legalising it.

(For the Tories, probably not, same as gay marriage, but to be seen standing out against a global trend is not helpful.)

Gay marriage had quite a devastating effect on driving away the tory membership of little old ladies who go to church every sunday. Compare this to the recent bloat of Labour members. Labour have no shortage willing to do door knocking, tories have none. 

 

I don't think many people were bothered about it either way. It seemed another issued 'pushed' onto us despite no appetite outside of a radical fringe. Not sure about others. I just saw it as virtue signalling and spiting religious types. In terms of actual, exercisable rights, civil partnerships guaranteed the same, so there was really no argument from that angle. Most these social issues are distraction issues because the more  time we spend talking about them, the less we spend talking about things that matter, namely governments continued ability to thieve money and power.

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20 minutes ago, PatronizingGit said:

Gay marriage had quite a devastating effect on driving away the tory membership of little old ladies who go to church every sunday.

But come GE time, did they vote Conservative?

The reason many of the grey vote stayed at home was the utterly idiotic Tory manifesto,

1 Wanting to break the triple lock OAP

2 Threatening winter heating allowance,

3 Children's school meals,

4 Fox hunting

5 Failing to explain that their so called "Dementia Tax" was in fact far lower than Labour's

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2 hours ago, PatronizingGit said:

Gay marriage had quite a devastating effect on driving away the tory membership of little old ladies who go to church every sunday. Compare this to the recent bloat of Labour members. Labour have no shortage willing to do door knocking, tories have none. 

 

I don't think many people were bothered about it either way. It seemed another issued 'pushed' onto us despite no appetite outside of a radical fringe. Not sure about others. I just saw it as virtue signalling and spiting religious types. In terms of actual, exercisable rights, civil partnerships guaranteed the same, so there was really no argument from that angle. Most these social issues are distraction issues because the more  time we spend talking about them, the less we spend talking about things that matter, namely governments continued ability to thieve money and power.

Balls.

Most CoE male vicars seem to be gay.

Most families have at least one gay bloke in them.

I know a large number of little old Con ladies. None are bothered. Theyd have not capmaigned for it. But, equally, theyd have not voted against it.

As far as Labour having masses of new people, ready to pound the streets..... you really have to meet the Momentum lot.

If the average Jezza new supportter enages with a traditional Labour voter base, that voter will be voting Con. 100%

 

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I've been watching JRM on YT. Can't quite make up my mind if he is positioning himself to become tory leader or if he genuinely prefers the life of a back bencher and intends to stay a back bencher.

 

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23 hours ago, Byron said:

But come GE time, did they vote Conservative?

The reason many of the grey vote stayed at home was the utterly idiotic Tory manifesto,

1 Wanting to break the triple lock OAP

2 Threatening winter heating allowance,

3 Children's school meals,

4 Fox hunting

5 Failing to explain that their so called "Dementia Tax" was in fact far lower than Labour's

 

Did it really though? May got over 14 million votes, highest since Major. 2nd highest in history? People call her a failure, and yet she got far more votes than Cameron got either time. I'd contend that one of the biggest factors were ethnic changes. 

Indeed, the white British population, the backbone of the tory vote, has been falling since 1992. Unless they can find a way to appeal to non-white (unlikely), thanks to the demographic changes they have wrought on the UK over the last 20 years means, like the Republicans in the US, they will have to aim to secure ever greater sections of the white vote. People thought Romney pretty much tapped out the white vote, getting about 62%. Trump upped it to nearly 70%. 

 

Racial demographics aside (though perhaps related) I think it was far more a case of the young actually bothered to vote once. Tories did as well as expected in the mayoral/regional elections the prior month, when most the above was already known. 

 

I must say I thought the Libdems would do better in 2017, being the only real receptacle for the EU fanboy vote.

2017 was more interesting to me for the regional trends. Tories lost Canterbury for the first time since the seat was established...i'd hazard a guess it is becoming increasingly studentified. Meanwhile, they gained Mansfield, which has always been a labour seat. Some other factors perhaps at play there...housing cost is obviously a major issue, and Mansfield, at least as the UK goes, has reasonably affordable housing. Canterbury on the other hand is a pipe dream for the vast majority of under 40s. 

This was of course their plan...to gain the (white, at least, if not immigrant majority inner city) labour heartlands, they held Copeland, and got a few like Stoke South, but they simply didnt pick up enough. I think after getting the Teesside Mayor the prior month, they were hoping the North East would transfer to tory en masse.

I don't know if its possible, or of 'Thatcher' has made the tories just too toxic in some areas, but it seems clear to me a far more jingo-istic, populist, Trumpian candidate would be their best shot. The vote is there. The white working class is crying out for an alternative to labour. Many of UKIPs best results in 2015 were labour heartlands. Only the tories seem hellbent on ignoring it, and putting banksters like Javid at the centre of the party, and pursuing a post brexit policy of replicating our membership with the EU with China instead, rather than talking about building up production in the UK.

 

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21 hours ago, spygirl said:

Balls.

Most CoE male vicars seem to be gay.

Most families have at least one gay bloke in them.

I know a large number of little old Con ladies. None are bothered. Theyd have not capmaigned for it. But, equally, theyd have not voted against it.

As far as Labour having masses of new people, ready to pound the streets..... you really have to meet the Momentum lot.

If the average Jezza new supportter enages with a traditional Labour voter base, that voter will be voting Con. 100%

 

Sure, but how many of the older types actually realize it. I remember as a teenager about 15 years back being warned in no uncertain terms to keep schtum about my cousins homosexuality in the company of (now late) Gran...it would break her heart, apparently. 

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31 minutes ago, PatronizingGit said:

Sure, but how many of the older types actually realize it. I remember as a teenager about 15 years back being warned in no uncertain terms to keep schtum about my cousins homosexuality in the company of (now late) Gran...it would break her heart, apparently. 

Things change.

An 80yo today would have been 30 in 1968.

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So the Tories strategy for winning the next election is to put up income taxes/NI on the small pool of workers who actually work full time and pay tax in order to fund the NHS. What happened to the real Tories? When were they replaced by nuLabour?

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Posted (edited)
On 19/06/2018 at 12:35, sarahbell said:

Steptoe?

Does it? 
Oh so it does. 
:-D
C0rbyn. 

Cоrbyn.

Cоrbyn Cоrbyn Cоrbyn Cоrbyn Cоrbyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyn.

Works OK for me.

"Cоrbyn is a waste of space".

There's not going to be another election before we leave the EU.

Steptoe might get in.

 

Edited by Happy Renting

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On 19/06/2018 at 15:58, Game_of_Homes said:

I think they have realised that legalising cannabis would not only be a vote winner with the young but would also bring in a lot of tax revenue, and even uber-conservative USA has done it so the trend is going towards legalisation worldwide. It is a no-brainer.

Actually the USA hasn't done it. What's happening there is that some liberal (and libertarian leaning) states, in defiance of federal law, have done it. There's an uneasy standoff with the federal government choosing not to enforce the law in those states but, for example, you can still get a very long jail sentence for transporting the stuff across state boundaries and companies dealing in cannabis products have to jump through hoops to get a bank account (there are stories of smaller operators dealing entirely in cash and having to drive van loads of the stuff around to make payroll, pay suppliers etc.). There are some bipartisan moves to introduce a federal legalization bill but no-one thinks it'll get very far and, even if it did, the orange baboon would never sign it into law.

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12 minutes ago, TheBlueCat said:

Actually the USA hasn't done it. What's happening there is that some liberal (and libertarian leaning) states, in defiance of federal law, have done it. There's an uneasy standoff with the federal government choosing not to enforce the law in those states but, for example, you can still get a very long jail sentence for transporting the stuff across state boundaries and companies dealing in cannabis products have to jump through hoops to get a bank account (there are stories of smaller operators dealing entirely in cash and having to drive van loads of the stuff around to make payroll, pay suppliers etc.). There are some bipartisan moves to introduce a federal legalization bill but no-one thinks it'll get very far and, even if it did, the orange baboon would never sign it into law.

Why?

He has repeatedly made comments about drugs legislation being a state issue. Maybe not compelling legalisation, but simply repealing federal prohibition would be entirely consistent with this (and help to weaken the cartels smuggling across the southern border).

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