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The Big Short Thread


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sancho panza

As per Credit Deflation thread,setting up a thread for those who higher risk methods of trading.

My thesis is that there are some potentially phenomenally peaky looking shares out there.

Discussion of ideas for anyone with a view.

I'll post some charts but feel free to add some ideas/views whether you see vulnerability or strength.

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image.png.e26b2ca48f8fe59a8b628a477946c9d0.png

 

Declaration of interest-Short IAG,Easyjet,Barratts,Taylor Wimpey.

 

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Remember this feeling and bottle it for next time.My experience in the 2000 bubble was incredible.I was buying tech stocks in the 90's by pure chance as I subscribed to a newsletter called Techinvest

Dow puts are 3000pts in the money. That's a record for me. 

Shell & RDSB are the same. I just logged in to check your account and you are holding Shell and BP.

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sancho panza

Be interesting to get some BCA and AA dates and see what happens.Bad news is coming to both those two I suspect-hattip @DurhamBorn

21 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I like this LSE diary for company announcements etc

http://www.lse.co.uk/financial-diary.asp

 

Meanwhile,today,the UK builders get battered some more

Berkely down £5 in 5 days to £38

Barratts down at 530

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Democorruptcy
4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Be interesting to get some BCA and AA dates and see what happens.Bad news is coming to both those two I suspect-hattip @DurhamBorn

 

Next week BCA

AA is September

The thing to do for any that's making your shorting finger twitch, is register on their own website and hope for a 'trading update'! e.g. AA

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Castlevania

@sancho panza where are you getting your charts from?

edit: if you don’t mind. What’s the rationale behind your current shorts?

Edited by Castlevania
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sancho panza
6 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Next week BCA

AA is September

The thing to do for any that's making your shorting finger twitch, is register on their own website and hope for a 'trading update'! e.g. AA

You're too kind.Although as a one man band I'm stretched these days in terms of research and reading.The family member I work closely with is more of a sounding board than doing any research themselves.

I think both of these companies will suffer over the next few years for structural reasons but timing it is beyond me.Berekely had a good drop post results but had rocketed before previous ones.You never can be sure whne the guillotine will fall.

At the moment,I'm focused on the UK builders.My thesis is simple in that they broke first,well before Northern Crock went asunder in 07.

Although I am watching others.

45 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

@sancho panza where are you getting your charts from?

edit: if you don’t mind. What’s the rationale behind your current shorts?

I make my own charts up and use certain indicators in conjunction with some fundamental analysis.Technical analysis has a role but on it's own is useless.I'm sizing shorts because I believe the US top is in and certain shares I'm interested in have topped out.I do prefer to see the turn well behind me because calling tops ahead of time is a fools game.You could even argue calling tops after they're behind you is a fools game but at some point you have to press play.

 

I've not been a massive shorter in the past preferring to hedge with deep out of the money put options but some of these charts are too tempting.In for a penny etc.

 

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No Duff (troll)
On 20/06/2018 at 11:56, sancho panza said:

For some reason,I'm still awaiting an exponential phase on AMZN

 

image.png.f6e4522193d3cbcba08277a55eaee625.png

Gotta love passive index tracker investing.

Maybe the first chart that goes back on itself, breaking the price-time equalibrium.  It's a new age stock after all!

No sane person would buy that but they do, every day, in their pensions, etf trackers, and funds.

All while laughing at bitcoin.

Edited by No Duff
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Alifelessbinary

Sancho looking like a good day for your shorts.

My only concern with shorting housing stock is that the government has a long track record of meddling irrationally in this area. Rather than adequately funding local planning departments and helping to fund infrastructure they instead embarked on HTB! While the ability to fund such nonsense is likely to be severely limited moving forward, all parties seem hell bent of modelling the market to their own political ideology.

The Tories are obsessed with creating homeowners, while Labour want to create social housing to secure future votes.

 

 

 

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Castlevania

Ok. I’m going to throw a couple of names into the ring. Feel free to give your twopeneth worth. I’m not short but thinking maybe. Clearly don’t trade on the below ramblings. If you do, it’s your own fault if you get smashed.

Britvic. It’s a very good company. However, I think the sugar tax and the fact they have a huge presence in the pub trade, which I think will struggle going forward makes them weak. I’m hoping for a couple profit warnings so that the share price drops below £5 at which point I’d be a buyer.

Coca~Cola Hellenic Bottling Company. Share price is high. It’s a play on emerging markets. Shares in my opinion are expensive based on the way a lot of EM currencies have been smashed so far this year. Again, I’d be a buyer if they halved. It’s a very good company, just overvalued in my opinion.

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sancho panza
10 hours ago, No Duff said:

Gotta love passive index tracker investing.

Maybe the first chart that goes back on itself, breaking the price-time equalibrium.  It's a new age stock after all!

No sane person would buy that but they do, every day, in their pensions, etf trackers, and funds.

All while laughing at bitcoin.

Quite No Duff.....it's incredible,People think passive index tracking is asafe way to invest.As I've said elsewhere ,these huge behemoths have never had to sell into a market shake out from a position where they're such a huge part of the market.

I'm not saying it's going to go wrong but why take the risk?

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sancho panza
1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Ok. I’m going to throw a couple of names into the ring. Feel free to give your twopeneth worth. I’m not short but thinking maybe. Clearly don’t trade on the below ramblings. If you do, it’s your own fault if you get smashed.

Britvic. It’s a very good company. However, I think the sugar tax and the fact they have a huge presence in the pub trade, which I think will struggle going forward makes them weak. I’m hoping for a couple profit warnings so that the share price drops below £5 at which point I’d be a buyer.

Coca~Cola Hellenic Bottling Company. Share price is high. It’s a play on emerging markets. Shares in my opinion are expensive based on the way a lot of EM currencies have been smashed so far this year. Again, I’d be a buyer if they halved. It’s a very good company, just overvalued in my opinion.

Like the Britvic idea...........defintiely one for the 'what bubble' series

image.png.97b0ae324c4e94d69cc838611d179f98.png

Coca cola has only 5 years history which isn't enough from my point of view

image.png.f475975e62edafacc85578098e897f23.png

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sancho panza
7 hours ago, Alifelessbinary said:

Sancho looking like a good day for your shorts.

My only concern with shorting housing stock is that the government has a long track record of meddling irrationally in this area. Rather than adequately funding local planning departments and helping to fund infrastructure they instead embarked on HTB! While the ability to fund such nonsense is likely to be severely limited moving forward, all parties seem hell bent of modelling the market to their own political ideology.

The Tories are obsessed with creating homeowners, while Labour want to create social housing to secure future votes.

The building shares were priced for perfection and still are in many respects.My shorts on these are two year projects that may or may not work.You have to pick your time and your time is dictated by the momentum-is it going up or is it going down.Govt policy on housing is irrelevant to most of these firms as elevated as they are.

 

Ideally,I'd like the builders to bounce back a bit from here and I think they will.(hope they will)

 

Just my view.DYOR etc etc

Edited by sancho panza
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Castlevania
12 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Like the Britvic idea...........defintiely one for the 'what bubble' series

image.png.97b0ae324c4e94d69cc838611d179f98.png

Coca cola has only 5 years history which isn't enough from my point of view

image.png.f475975e62edafacc85578098e897f23.png

Coca~Cola HBC was listed on the Athens stock exchange, before they shifted to the LSE, so there should be data going back years.

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sancho panza
1 minute ago, Castlevania said:

Coca~Cola HBC was listed on the Athens stock exchange, before they shifted to the LSE, so there should be data going back years.

I'll look it up.Off to bed.Up at 0530

Tried to catch up on the deflation thread but there's been 6 sides of posts today lol

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azzuri82

I agree re: Amazon.TESLA as well looks like a dead-cert due to their short-term debt obligations.

Starbucks has surely topped out now that even your local greasy spoon can produce a decent quality latte for half the price, and it's a discretionary spending item?

 

 

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Talking Monkey
12 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

I agree re: Amazon.TESLA as well looks like a dead-cert due to their short-term debt obligations.

Starbucks has surely topped out now that even your local greasy spoon can produce a decent quality latte for half the price, and it's a discretionary spending item?

 

 

I just don't get how tesla can be valued at more than Ford and GM, it produces a fraction of the cars they do. What do others think

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sancho panza
23 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

I agree re: Amazon.TESLA as well looks like a dead-cert due to their short-term debt obligations.

Starbucks has surely topped out now that even your local greasy spoon can produce a decent quality latte for half the price, and it's a discretionary spending item?

 

 

It's the timing that makes it hard re Tesla,it's hard to discertain the roll over point

Nice idea on Starbucks

1) Mundane product-easily replicated-tick

2) saturated market for said mundane product-tick

3) stocks got a bubble like quality to it's chart-tick

image.png.cca8d5c51b7f5e8fb8befd1b285f012d.png

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sancho panza
10 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

I just don't get how Tesla can be valued at more than Ford and GM, it produces a fraction of the cars they do. What do others think

This is exactly the sort of anomaly that you need to find.Then it's a case of seeing how much' hope and momentum' is in the price versus the financial reality of others in the industry.I see Tesla as very much a hope and momentum play that's done incredibly well for a lot of people.

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Talking Monkey
10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

This is exactly the sort of anomaly that you need to find.Then it's a case of seeing how much' hope and momentum' is in the price versus the financial reality of others in the industry.I see Tesla as very much a hope and momentum play that's done incredibly well for a lot of people.

I'll hunt around for some others, I reckon the next earnings call will be the big one if they post another whopping loss then some correction will show, at the first sniff of a recession they are going to get smashed

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azzuri82
2 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

I'll hunt around for some others, I reckon the next earnings call will be the big one if they post another whopping loss then some correction will show, at the first sniff of a recession they are going to get smashed

Agreed. 

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sancho panza

image.png.9d87df7cbc1afc1ad1b0d03fa6470b6c.png

8 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

What method do you guys use for shorting?

Spread betting?

I use IG and traded options occasionally.

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