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The Big Short Thread


sancho panza

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14 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

If the margin call comes in wouldn't it plummet

I would only imagine so. The interesting thing is what is keeping it at $250? The actives like Ballie Gifford etc who are balls deep in Tesla countering the Passives Vanguard etc mechanical sell offs.Or something else? What does @sancho panza make of it?

Watch the video from 6.45 xD

https://citywire.co.uk/money/james-anderson-vicious-short-sellers-are-tesla-s-big-problem-not-elon-musk/a1154739

Edited by Admiral Pepe
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On 09/10/2018 at 21:43, Admiral Pepe said:

I can see a lot of the tech stocks ending up like below xD

DpAT4Z9UYAAjA-c.jpg:large

I just sold my JDSU this year, or at least the two companies that it split into. My biggest percentage loss on any shares I've owned! 

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On 11/10/2018 at 09:37, stockton said:

Looks like WH Smith came in for you this morning SP!

Yes a nice stroke of good fortune,softens the damage done by my PM miners

On 11/10/2018 at 20:03, Admiral Pepe said:

I would only imagine so. The interesting thing is what is keeping it at $250? The actives like Ballie Gifford etc who are balls deep in Tesla countering the Passives Vanguard etc mechanical sell offs.Or something else? What does @sancho panza make of it?

Watch the video from 6.45 xD

https://citywire.co.uk/money/james-anderson-vicious-short-sellers-are-tesla-s-big-problem-not-elon-musk/a1154739

' Tesla shares – in which Baillie Gifford held a 7.8% stake and which accounted for 5% of Scottish Mortgage assets – have plunged in the month since Musk proposed taking the company private in a $420 per share buyout '

 

Cheers for the link.The above tells me al I need to nkow.Apparently,Musk has used Tesla stocks to colateralize loans for Tesla from what I understand

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On 03/10/2018 at 11:46, sancho panza said:

Currently short

Barratts

Redrow

Bellway

Taylor Wimpey

Rightmove

Prudential

Inchcape

Glencore

WH Smith

 

Losses/Stops tripped

Reckitt

Redrow-reshorted 

Restaurant group

Glencore

 

Profits taken

Travis Perkins

ITV

Barratts

 

Shut Pru,Inchcape,RM,BDev Friday day.

Looking to reopen after a rally.

Even pondering some long side drift in Pru

Edited by sancho panza
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12 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

My shorts list of UK equities is a sea of red today so far! Selloff continues.

What's on there azzuri? show me yours etc...

I've added Whitbread/Howden Joinery/Bovis.And some more Bellway.Can't believe the builders haven't bounced .genuinely questioning whether this is 2007 or 8????

Builders getting pummelled every day at the mo.I was early closing the rest but if they don't bounce I'll recycle into some possibly tasty punts on LVMH and L'Oreal

 

AS I was saying in the other thread,some of the shares I was getting excited about have plummetted and not given a slow timer like me the chance to have a pop.Somethings afoot,not quite sure what.

Edited by sancho panza
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8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

What's on there azzuri? show me yours etc...

I've added Whitbread/Howden Joinery/Bovis.And some more Bellway.Can't believe the builders haven't bounced .genuinely questioning whether this is 2007 or 8????

Builders getting pummelled every day at the mo.I was early closing the rest but if they don't bounce I'll recycle into some possibly tasty punts on LVMH and L'Oreal

 

AS I was saying in the other thread,some of the shares I was getting excited about have plummetted and not given a slow timer like me the chance to have a pop.Somethings afoot,not quite sure what.

Yeah. I was tempted by shorting Wizz a few months ago when it was hovering around £35 for a few months. I think I missed the boat on that one. Ironic as I ran the slide on going long two years ago when it was around £15 and again didn’t for whatever reason. Bah! 

The builders are interesting. I closed out a nice big basket (Berkeley, Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey, Barratt, Capco) in early July, expecting a bounce that never really materialised. They went sideways for a few months and now down again. 

Edited by Castlevania
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8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

What's on there azzuri? show me yours etc...

I've added Whitbread/Howden Joinery/Bovis.And some more Bellway.Can't believe the builders haven't bounced .genuinely questioning whether this is 2007 or 8????

Builders getting pummelled every day at the mo.I was early closing the rest but if they don't bounce I'll recycle into some possibly tasty punts on LVMH and L'Oreal

 

AS I was saying in the other thread,some of the shares I was getting excited about have plummetted and not given a slow timer like me the chance to have a pop.Somethings afoot,not quite sure what.

I don't list my specific trades/positions publicly, as I've found that it's then tougher to walk away from a losing position. If I don't tell anyone - then it's much easier to stick to my trading plan, sorry. Personally, I find I'm far more ruthless as a result and can pull the trigger without emotion - no ego involved in being 'right' or 'wrong' if you haven't told anyone about it! Just trying to bypass the weaknesses in my personality type. I only have 6-8 trades/positions on at any one time - but my thoughts on things are broadly similar to yours.

Some of the companies I'v mentioned on this thread I've got some positions on, most I don't (...but wish I did now!). 

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On 11/10/2018 at 14:54, Talking Monkey said:

If the margin call comes in wouldn't it plummet

Margin call is on the person holding a leveraged position. For example if you are selling puts and have sold at $270 then the more it drops the more you are liable for. Your broker would see your amount on deposit is less than the amount owned and call you to deposit the difference.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/margincall.asp

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13 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

I don't list my specific trades/positions publicly, as I've found that it's then tougher to walk away from a losing position. If I don't tell anyone - then it's much easier to stick to my trading plan, sorry. Personally, I find I'm far more ruthless as a result and can pull the trigger without emotion - no ego involved in being 'right' or 'wrong' if you haven't told anyone about it! Just trying to bypass the weaknesses in my personality type. I only have 6-8 trades/positions on at any one time - but my thoughts on things are broadly similar to yours.

Some of the companies I'v mentioned on this thread I've got some positions on, most I don't (...but wish I did now!). 

That's a really good take on trading.Plan your trades and trade your plan.It's good that you're self aware enough to know your limits and that you play to them.It's easy to lose a lot of cash playing these games.

I've posted positions thus far for the sake of being open and transparent,in some ways I wish I hadn't as I've had a run of luck that makes me look more shrewd than I am.

Might be a good idea from hereonin to only decl if we're talking about a share I have a position in.

I'm geninely thinking about opening up on starbucks....even though it's not into a long term downtrend

Still waiting for Denny's lol

Edited by sancho panza
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14 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Yeah. I was tempted by shorting Wizz a few months ago when it was hovering around £35 for a few months. I think I missed the boat on that one. Ironic as I ran the slide on going long two years ago when it was around £15 and again didn’t for whatever reason. Bah! 

The builders are interesting. I closed out a nice big basket (Berkeley, Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey, Barratt, Capco) in early July, expecting a bounce that never really materialised. They went sideways for a few months and now down again. 

I'm wondering if their recent downward moves are the start of the terminal grind down........I suspect not hence I closed BDev(my biggest position) but in 2007 they pretty much plummted all the way to the bottom.

14 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I’m short the following. Note most positions are pretty small.

Barratt

Carnaval

Coca Cola HBC

IHG

JD Sports

Savills

Whitbread

 

Similar to where I am I think,spreading your risk.I think Savills was a good pick.WHen I first opened some whenever this thread started tey were on my radar but I felt they were deep in the downtrend alaready.Think they have real potnetial if you hang on in there.I'll maybe take a punt on them next week alongside Restaurant Group for a littel retail exposure.

I'm still waiting on coca cola crossing some long term averages and JD Sports which are bubblicious for a high st retialer.

Great move on IHG....If they bounce I'll go in but they've had a bad few weeks and I hate going short after a decent drop.

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11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

.....If they bounce I'll go in

Allied to that, one of my best trading strategies in the old days was to buy the drop, thanks to the shorts and/or paniced ones.  I loved the "shock" bad news as most initial dips were overdone.  A very quick buy-sell on the correction of the oversold.  No hanging around though! 

Edited by Harley
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22 hours ago, georgist said:

Margin call is on the person holding a leveraged position. For example if you are selling puts and have sold at $270 then the more it drops the more you are liable for. Your broker would see your amount on deposit is less than the amount owned and call you to deposit the difference.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/margincall.asp

So just to clarify my understanding of shorting, until you get out you could be liable for infinity (theoretically), but with longs your limit is your purchase price?....I assume shorters hedge themselves for such a scenario by also placing a buy requests at a price just above the market value when they set up their short?

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On 20/10/2018 at 09:03, Castlevania said:

I’m short the following. Note most positions are pretty small.

Barratt

Carnaval

Coca Cola HBC

IHG

JD Sports

Savills

Whitbread

 

Can I ask what made you move on Whitbread CV?

Edited by sancho panza
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4 hours ago, MrXxx said:

So just to clarify my understanding of shorting, until you get out you could be liable for infinity (theoretically), but with longs your limit is your purchase price?....I assume shorters hedge themselves for such a scenario by also placing a buy requests at a price just above the market value when they set up their short?

Most people use stop losses so the only time you really get walloped is when there's a sizeable move eg big gap up at the open or a take over offer.

I use guaranteed stops myself on IG which means higher margin requirements,but I'm quite conservative.

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8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Most people use stop losses so the only time you really get walloped is when there's a sizeable move eg big gap up at the open or a take over offer.

I use guaranteed stops myself on IG which means higher margin requirements,but I'm quite conservative.

Thanks SP, as I thought....still think I will leave this game for the big boys thought!

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Howden,Whitbread,Purdential(shut a perfectly good short and went long broke the code and it's been mullered by pure coincidence),L'oreal,Rightmove,Savills,LSL,Netflix,Starbucks.

 

Running the slide rule over Adidas,LVMH,Visa,Airbus,Home Depot,Microsfot,Apple,Google........................

 

Trying to get back in UK builders before the dead cat bounce is over.

Edited by sancho panza
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On 21/10/2018 at 17:44, MrXxx said:

So just to clarify my understanding of shorting, until you get out you could be liable for infinity (theoretically), but with longs your limit is your purchase price?....I assume shorters hedge themselves for such a scenario by also placing a buy requests at a price just above the market value when they set up their short?

Not strictly true. You don't have to leverage when shorting a company. You can buy/sell  calls/put options and whatever the entry price is, that is what you're liable for. At any time you can sell your option or you can let your option expire.

Just as an example if I wanted to short Tesla, I could buy a put option expiring Mar 2019. Entry cost would be $246 @ a $190 strike price for one contract and my Maximum risk would be $246 should the contract expire. You can sell the contract at any time prior to expriation, whether one is in the money or out of the money.

Check out Tastyworks if you want to short some US companies.

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On 25/10/2018 at 11:54, Admiral Pepe said:

Not strictly true. You don't have to leverage when shorting a company. You can buy/sell  calls/put options and whatever the entry price is, that is what you're liable for. At any time you can sell your option or you can let your option expire.

Just as an example if I wanted to short Tesla, I could buy a put option expiring Mar 2019. Entry cost would be $246 @ a $190 strike price for one contract and my Maximum risk would be $246 should the contract expire. You can sell the contract at any time prior to expriation, whether one is in the money or out of the money.

Check out Tastyworks if you want to short some US companies.

So I assume the entry price is that at which the shares are selling at when you place your short(£246)?...if so, does this mean that as soon as the share price goes above this your contact (and hence £246) is lost?...and where people in the markets are manipulating them in the short term forming the basis of a bear trap to `cheat` you of your money as a shorter?

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