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The Big Short Thread


sancho panza

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On 20/11/2018 at 13:10, azzuri82 said:

Check out the Netflix chart for the last 2 years, sorry I'm posting this on my elderly smartphone otherwise I'd do it myself, but if you're a chartist it's real bear food type stuff.

They're screwed.

I think all the Fang stocks are headed down except for maybe AMZN-and I suspect even they will lose 70% + from peak.

I'm got on FB once, TSLA two times(still got one running) and that's it thus far.Unfortunately for me,they're tough trades and there are more relaible ways to lose less money eg SBUX.

Nie to see Domino's rising from the ashes and headed back to $275 where I would consider a punt.

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Just now, sancho panza said:

Holy shit.I have a new 'Countrywide' style favourite........................................you can't go wrong with bricks and mortar lol

If anyone knows any more that are liasted I would be eternally grateful.

 

 

image.thumb.png.203cc57019d00d41d79a52ff7838b313.png

A new love affair begins........

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On 27/11/2018 at 20:25, sancho panza said:

NAother industry in trouble.I went past a travel shop in Market Harborough the other week,more staff than customers.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-stocks/british-stocks-dented-as-thomas-cook-miners-sink-idUKKCN1NW10C

Thomas Cook Group (TCG.L) plunged as much as 31 percent after it suspended its 2018 dividend and cut its profit forecast for the second time in two months, saying an exceptionally hot summer had deterred Britons from holidaying abroad.

“Thomas Cook’s third profit warning for 2018 cuts underlying EBIT by another c.10 percent versus consensus,” wrote Jefferies analysts.

 

They added that the dividend suspension may concern investors given dividends were only 9 million pounds in 2017.

The stock closed down 22.6 percent at 33.92 p, its weakest in nearly six years and also dragged rival TUI (TUIT.L) down 2.5 percent.

Ouch down we go again. I’ve not looked at the detail yet.

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1 hour ago, Ash4781b said:

Ouch down we go again. I’ve not looked at the detail yet.

Yes,it's hard to see where it will end.High St travel agents/package operators futures look bleak to be honest with people booking own flights and accomodation via booking.com

image.thumb.png.c7fffc332f9a456bad9527b82c13de93.png

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17 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Yes,it's hard to see where it will end.High St travel agents/package operators futures look bleak to be honest with people booking own flights and accomodation via booking.com

image.thumb.png.c7fffc332f9a456bad9527b82c13de93.png

And again. Down it goes.

I quite like the Thomas Cook shops. Staff were helpful but the price was the same as listed on the internet. I was in two minds about that - I thought maybe oddly they needed to be cheaper than the net to get me and others in the door (the assumption some will have is the internet is cheaper). At the end of the day the staff just key data into a web portal but are able in theory to provide expert advice.

Oh that gets me thinking on John Lewis’ price match guarantee. It’s going to kill them?

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58 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

And again. Down it goes.

I quite like the Thomas Cook shops. Staff were helpful but the price was the same as listed on the internet. I was in two minds about that - I thought maybe oddly they needed to be cheaper than the net to get me and others in the door (the assumption some will have is the internet is cheaper). At the end of the day the staff just key data into a web portal but are able in theory to provide expert advice.

Oh that gets me thinking on John Lewis’ price match guarantee. It’s going to kill them?

I do a lot of looking around when I'm in shops and I must say,I agree with you that JL is in trouble.Their biggest strength is their anchor store statues getting them cheap rent but there's chunks of their sqaure footage that quite patently,are nowhere near clearing the bills-kiddy's toys,kiddy's shoes,menswear etc.

Wolf Richter has had some great analysis on the stores that are surviving the internet threat but the charts are clear.I'll see if I can dig one up.

Obviously,T Cook won't be one of them.

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https://wolfstreet.com/2018/11/19/mall-retailers-melt-down-as-sales-shift-to-online/

Mall Retailers Melt Down in Four Charts

by Wolf Richter • Nov 19, 2018 • 75 Comments

But e-commerce is piping hot.

Total retail sales growth – not adjusted for inflation – has been fairly strong, rising 4.6% in the third quarter compared to a year ago, powered by booming e-commerce sales, which the Commerce Department reported this morning, and by rising inflation. But “real” retail sales (adjusted for inflation) are not so hot, rising only 2.0% in October, and this was at the lower end of the post-Financial Crisis range:

US-retail-sales-2018-10-inflation-adjust

E-commerce sales in the third quarter, not adjusted for inflation, soared 14.5% from a year ago to a new record of $131 billion (seasonally adjusted), the Commerce Department reported this morning. E-commerce sales are on track to blow through the $500-billion level in 2018.

E-commerce includes sales by the online operations of brick-and-mortar retailers, such as Macy’s, Walmart, and Best Buy, along with the sales of online-focused retailers, from Amazon down to small operations. Over the past five years, e-commerce sales have doubled.

I separate these retail sales — $1.34 trillion in Q3 — in three categories:

  • Online sales: +14.5% year-over-year.
  • Sales at online-resistant retailers (gas stations, new and used auto dealers, and grocery and beverage stores), accounting for 52% of all brick-and-mortar sales: +5.7% year-over-year
  • Sales at retailers that are under attack from online, accounting for 48% of all brick-and-mortar sales: +3.1% year-over-year, not even enough to make up for inflation (2.6% in Q3) and population growth (0.9%).

This chart shows how e-commerce has been eating into the share of the brick-and-mortar retailers that are under attack:

US-retail-ecommerce-share-of-under_attac

But the chart above averages out the two-decade meltdown in specific sectors. Some sectors, like record and video stores have largely been wiped out by e-commerce. Others have been decimated by e-commerce, such as book stores and toy stores.

Department store sales have plunged 36% (not adjusted for inflation!) since their peak in 2001, to just $37.4 billion in Q3, a new record low in the data going back to 1992. These are the stores that anchor malls; it’s the sector populated by the brick-and-mortar stores of Macy’s, bankrupt Sears, soon-to-be bankrupt J.C. Penney, liquidated Bon-Ton Stores, Nordstrom, and others. Store-closings by retail chains and malls losing their anchor stores are the two visible signs.

Nothing is going to help brick-and-mortar department stores. That concept has been obviated by e-commerce, and the department stores that want to stay relevant – such as Macy’s and Nordstrom – are furiously and successfully building out their e-commerce operations. Others will be liquidated.

Sales at electronics and appliance stores, despite a booming business in electronics and appliances, have dropped 9% over the past 10 years to $24.9 billion, as much of it has migrated to online operations, including the successful online operations of brick-and-mortar retailers such as Best Buy.

The chart below shows e-commerce sales (red line) versus some of the other major categories of brick-and-mortar stores that populate the shopping malls of America:

US-retail-ecommerce-v-mall-store-sales-2

And here’s how these stores in the chart above — department stores; sporting goods, hobby, book, music, toy, and game stores; electronics and appliance stores, clothing, clothing accessory, and shoe stores — all combined stack up against e-commerce:

US-retail-ecommerce-v-mall-store-sales-2

These are the stores that dominate the shopping malls of America. Year-after-year they’re losing out to e-commerce. Their combined sales have been flat for a dozen years, despite inflation and population growth. While a few of the retailers have done well, many have gotten totally crushed. Some have disappeared from the scene, and others, such as Sears, have gone bankrupt and will soon disappear; while others still, like J.C. Penney, will eventually follow in their footsteps.

The demise of the classic mall stores isn’t happening overnight; it took two decades to get this far, and the torture will continue methodically for many more years, and mall landlords and increasingly mall creditors, when they end up with the collateral, are having to figure out what to do with their malls. 
 

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3 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

And again. Down it goes.

I quite like the Thomas Cook shops. Staff were helpful but the price was the same as listed on the internet. I was in two minds about that - I thought maybe oddly they needed to be cheaper than the net to get me and others in the door (the assumption some will have is the internet is cheaper). At the end of the day the staff just key data into a web portal but are able in theory to provide expert advice.

Oh that gets me thinking on John Lewis’ price match guarantee. It’s going to kill them?

As if on cue Ash,Retail gazzette saying home sales down 8% might be offset by christmas decorations being up 9.2% ............JL in big trouble imho.

Look at the Waitrose figures.YoY -1.8%.Admittedly weekly comparions can mirror other changes but still,I challenge anyone to find real upside here.

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2018/12/john-lewis-partnership-weekly-sales-plummet-after-record-black-friday-week/

John Lewis Partnership’s weekly sales plummet after record Black Friday week

December 4, 2018
John lewis partnership weekly
 

John Lewis Partnership’s weekly sales took a hit after the record-high figures from Black Friday failed to maintain momentum for the retail group.

For the week ending December 1, the parent company of Waitrose and John Lewis saw weekly sales drop four per cent year-on-year to £297.05 million.

While sales figures for the week after Black Friday is often one of decline, the magnitude of last week’s sales drop is worse than previous years when compared to the 4.2 sales growth recorded the week prior.

Despite this, the latest weekly sales figures are still much better than those recorded in the weeks leading up to Black Friday, and slightly better than what was recorded during the same week for the partnership’s 2016-17 fiscal year.

john lewis partnership weekly

Between the partnership’s Waitrose and John Lewis fascias, the latter dragged the overall sales figures thanks to a 5.9 per cent year-on-year weekly sales drop.

The department store said mild weather affected its cold weather categories, but welcomed a surge in Christmas tree sales as the start of the month ushered in the start of festivities around the country.

Fashion sales were down 1.8 per cent, while beauty, wellbeing and leisure sales were up 1.5 per cent.

John Lewis said some of its own brand womenswear performed particularly well, driven by customers shopping for partywear.

While home sales were down 8.8 per cent, Christmas decorations sales surged 9.2 per cent as customers began preparing their homes for Christmas and it was one of the retailer’s biggest weeks ever for Christmas tree sales.

Electrical and home technology sales were also down 7.7 per cent, but personal care sales were up 38 per cent and electrical accessories were also up 32 per cent.

Over at stablemate Waitrose, weekly sales excluding fuel were down 1.8 per cent year-on-year.

This grocer highlighted tough comparisons to last year, which saw more widespread promotional activity.

The retailer added that as December arrived, advent calendars increased in sales by 22 per cent, Christmas biscuits were up 19 per cent and Christmas bakery sales climbed by 16 per cent.

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39 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

What's your thoughts on Card Factory SP?!

Given I went short monday I suspect they're very similar to yours Azzurri....:ph34r:

 

They may have a good Christmas,so I'll be keeping an eye on their tills when I'm taking Panza junior in to leicester market for his soft commodities lesson.I'm moving away from long term shorts now until the New year I reckon.

You got anything else you're watching?

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4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

As if on cue Ash,Retail gazzette saying home sales down 8% might be offset by christmas decorations being up 9.2% ............JL in big trouble imho.

Look at the Waitrose figures.YoY -1.8%.Admittedly weekly comparions can mirror other changes but still,I challenge anyone to find real upside here.

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2018/12/john-lewis-partnership-weekly-sales-plummet-after-record-black-friday-week/

John Lewis Partnership’s weekly sales plummet after record Black Friday week

December 4, 2018
John lewis partnership weekly
 

John Lewis Partnership’s weekly sales took a hit after the record-high figures from Black Friday failed to maintain momentum for the retail group.

For the week ending December 1, the parent company of Waitrose and John Lewis saw weekly sales drop four per cent year-on-year to £297.05 million.

While sales figures for the week after Black Friday is often one of decline, the magnitude of last week’s sales drop is worse than previous years when compared to the 4.2 sales growth recorded the week prior.

Despite this, the latest weekly sales figures are still much better than those recorded in the weeks leading up to Black Friday, and slightly better than what was recorded during the same week for the partnership’s 2016-17 fiscal year.

john lewis partnership weekly

Between the partnership’s Waitrose and John Lewis fascias, the latter dragged the overall sales figures thanks to a 5.9 per cent year-on-year weekly sales drop.

The department store said mild weather affected its cold weather categories, but welcomed a surge in Christmas tree sales as the start of the month ushered in the start of festivities around the country.

Fashion sales were down 1.8 per cent, while beauty, wellbeing and leisure sales were up 1.5 per cent.

John Lewis said some of its own brand womenswear performed particularly well, driven by customers shopping for partywear.

While home sales were down 8.8 per cent, Christmas decorations sales surged 9.2 per cent as customers began preparing their homes for Christmas and it was one of the retailer’s biggest weeks ever for Christmas tree sales.

Electrical and home technology sales were also down 7.7 per cent, but personal care sales were up 38 per cent and electrical accessories were also up 32 per cent.

Over at stablemate Waitrose, weekly sales excluding fuel were down 1.8 per cent year-on-year.

This grocer highlighted tough comparisons to last year, which saw more widespread promotional activity.

The retailer added that as December arrived, advent calendars increased in sales by 22 per cent, Christmas biscuits were up 19 per cent and Christmas bakery sales climbed by 16 per cent.

 However, with unleaded back to 120p litre locally I’m thinking maybe need to be less cautious and expect surprises. 

Just looking at Thomas Cook’s Intra day chart. I’ve not seen the volumes but a lot going on !

93C0740B-3099-47E8-B22E-F892475F409E.jpeg

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1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Given I went short monday I suspect they're very similar to yours Azzurri....:ph34r:

 

They may have a good Christmas,so I'll be keeping an eye on their tills when I'm taking Panza junior in to leicester market for his soft commodities lesson.I'm moving away from long term shorts now until the New year I reckon.

You got anything else you're watching?

Nothing at the moment, I don't actually have a lot of time to trade so concentrating on my core fundamental hated list.

Edited by azzuri82
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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...
16 hours ago, Castlevania said:

What am I missing with Telecom Plus? They’re a glorified pyramid scheme, and the shares are near a 12 month high.

WHy a pyramid scheme?

o/t

image.png.1ed810828f2df798a66b47d13393cafa.png

Edited by sancho panza
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25 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

WHy a pyramid scheme?

o/t

image.png.1ed810828f2df798a66b47d13393cafa.png

Network marketing, like Tupperware or Avon. If you sign up as a distributor you get commission for introducing people to using their services. If the people you introduced then introduce other people, you also get a further cut of commission and so on down the chain.

I can’t work out why they’re so highly valued. 

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31 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Network marketing, like Tupperware or Avon. If you sign up as a distributor you get commission for introducing people to using their services. If the people you introduced then introduce other people, you also get a further cut of commission and so on down the chain.

I can’t work out why they’re so highly valued. 

P/E of 35 according to investing.com....

I understand now.I'll have to back check some revenue figures for earlier years but they've gone nowhere over 4.Hardly a high growth company.Current trend is up though.But defo on my radar for now.Thanks for the heads up.

 

Currently left with Travis perkins/AAL/Intertek.Waiting developmetns.....and a rally lol

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 27/11/2018 at 20:25, sancho panza said:

........cut its profit forecast for the second time in two months, saying an exceptionally hot summer had deterred Britons from holidaying abroad.

They've got no money you......

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  • 3 weeks later...

Just running the old slide rule over a few favourite names-can't psot graphs due to internet connection but Dunelm, BDEV, Berkeley,Home Depot,Visa,Burberry, Ashtead,Dominos',Tesla,Coca Cola HBC,Travis Perkins and a lot more all recovering nicely into 2019.

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On ‎27‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 22:41, Castlevania said:

Network marketing, like Tupperware or Avon. If you sign up as a distributor you get commission for introducing people to using their services. If the people you introduced then introduce other people, you also get a further cut of commission and so on down the chain.

I can’t work out why they’re so highly valued. 

Bundling.

And customer retention.

Edited by billfunk
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