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The Big Short Thread


sancho panza

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2 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

The usual crew at TOS are busy.

On the dow 1100 thread, happily posting in hindsight how they sold everything into cash last week...

I suppose in context of the deflation thread, the stock market is more of a sideshow -  but what a sideshow

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25 minutes ago, Loki said:

I'm surprised how quiet this whole part of the forum is this evening

I jumped out of my s&p short too early. Made like £20 or so, missed out on another £40 to this point. Tiny compared to losses this 2 week anyway. 

Still holding tesla short and still out of the money on it but it's looking promising. It's just 1 share but feels very personal because of just how much it popped up

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11 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

I jumped out of my s&p short too early. Made like £20 or so, missed out on another £40 to this point. Tiny compared to losses this 2 week anyway. 

Still holding tesla short and still out of the money on it but it's looking promising. It's just 1 share but feels very personal because of just how much it popped up

Looks like you won't have to wait long!

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1 hour ago, Bear Hug said:

I jumped out of my s&p short too early. Made like £20 or so, missed out on another £40 to this point. Tiny compared to losses this 2 week anyway. 

Still holding tesla short and still out of the money on it but it's looking promising. It's just 1 share but feels very personal because of just how much it popped 

Dow puts are 3000pts in the money. That's a record for me. 

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1 hour ago, Green Devil said:

Dow puts are 3000pts in the money. That's a record for me. 

Nice one.

3 hours ago, Loki said:

I'm surprised how quiet this whole part of the forum is this evening

I had a 40% 2018 and a minus 50% 2019(mainly thanks to TSLA/UK builders in Dec 19) on my short term portfolio.I gave myself two eyars trialling a new system Id worked on.WHilst th system was good,my emotions wouldn't let me apply it properly.

Know your limits etc.

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M S E Refugee

I started shorting the FTSE,DAX and S&P500 on 7/02/20 and I will be up around 8-9% on £14000.

Not sure whether to sell up today as I think the Empire will Strike back over the weekend and try prop up the markets somehow.

Any ideas of what they may do?

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5 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I started shorting the FTSE,DAX and S&P500 on 7/02/20 and I will be up around 8-9% on £14000.

Not sure whether to sell up today as I think the Empire will Strike back over the weekend and try prop up the markets somehow.

Any ideas of what they may do?

They'll come back with everything they can.

I think we'll see the effects of this today even if they don't actually do anything before the US close.

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M S E Refugee
28 minutes ago, dgul said:

They'll come back with everything they can.

I think we'll see the effects of this today even if they don't actually do anything before the US close.

I probably will sell up today and see what happens over the weekend.

Thanks to forum members I have preserved my investments.

Sod it,I will let it run and put some stop losses in.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Time to put on my forgotten bear costume... it's been long 12 years of disgrace but now it's our turn..!

horror-teddy-bear-costume--mw-110944-1.j

 

Jokes aside, I will open some shorts (SP500 and FTSE100) tonight :) 

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 20/12/2019 at 23:59, Bear Hug said:

It's done!  Shorting 1 share of tesla.  If by some miracle beyond meat, lyft or uber run up a bit, I'll short them too.

Update.  Closed out my short position today. It was very briefly in the money but then started heading up again.  I couldn't wait anymore and crystallised about £18 loss overall.

Happy!  This was some ride - I was down about £400 at some point!  It has only taken an apocalyptic turn of events to get me out of it.  I bet without covid, tesla would have been above $1k now.

On a bright side, can use margin money to buy some discounted stocks now!

Just to add, I know I have lost thousands due to market collapse but the losses on that piece of shit Tesla were really getting to me, I feel much better now. 

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  • 2 months later...
sancho panza
52 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

Is it time to start SHORTING?

My favoured method is to buy The ETFs SHORT LEVERAGED x3 share.

Guidance is to only hold for 1 day - however I think you can get away with weekly positions. Closing the Short after 5-10 days and reopen again. 

I use H&L broker however Shorting is not something I do regularly - very little experience - so any advice welcome.

These are my favoured SHORTING LEVERAGED X 3 vehicles ON H&L: 

QQQS (NASDAQ short)

3BAS (European Bank short)

3EMS (Emerging Market Short)

3UKS (Ftse short)

3ULS (S&P 500 short)

Nasdaq has just broken 10,000 - the 6 big FAANGT stocks look very bubbly...!

Any thoughts on this? 

Any advice welcome.

 

 


 

Personally,I'd steer clear here.Even uber bears like John Hussman are saying stand back.

I have a load of long calls US Steel,Alcoa,Freeport,Mosiac etc.Up a lot since the bottom-declaring interest here-not selling yet,there's madenss in this market and if you're not watching your screen or playing long dated puts,you could get your @rse served on a platter over lunch time.

Hvae you got an options account?

options thread here.

@MvR is the guru on these.

 

but ifg you want a plain vanilla short then limiting your risk via options might be best.

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Castlevania
58 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

Is it time to start SHORTING?

My favoured method is to buy The ETFs SHORT LEVERAGED x3 share.

Guidance is to only hold for 1 day - however I think you can get away with weekly positions. Closing the Short after 5-10 days and reopen again. 

I use H&L broker however Shorting is not something I do regularly - very little experience - so any advice welcome.

These are my favoured SHORTING LEVERAGED X 3 vehicles ON H&L: 

QQQS (NASDAQ short)

3BAS (European Bank short)

3EMS (Emerging Market Short)

3UKS (Ftse short)

3ULS (S&P 500 short)

Nasdaq has just broken 10,000 - the 6 big FAANGT stocks look very bubbly...!

Any thoughts on this? 

Any advice welcome.

 

 


 

Time decay is not your friend. I’d argue spread betting is a better option - although  the downside is unlimited.

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Talking Monkey
1 hour ago, Vendetta said:

Is it time to start SHORTING?

My favoured method is to buy The ETFs SHORT LEVERAGED x3 share.

Guidance is to only hold for 1 day - however I think you can get away with weekly positions. Closing the Short after 5-10 days and reopen again. 

I use H&L broker however Shorting is not something I do regularly - very little experience - so any advice welcome.

These are my favoured SHORTING LEVERAGED X 3 vehicles ON H&L: 

QQQS (NASDAQ short)

3BAS (European Bank short)

3EMS (Emerging Market Short)

3UKS (Ftse short)

3ULS (S&P 500 short)

Nasdaq has just broken 10,000 - the 6 big FAANGT stocks look very bubbly...!

Any thoughts on this? 

Any advice welcome.

 

 


 

In terms of advice I would say never short an individual stock however overpriced you think it is, take Tesla it is insanely priced far beyond any reasonable measure but that insanity could get even more detached from reality

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Talking Monkey
54 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Personally,I'd steer clear here.Even uber bears like John Hussman are saying stand back.

I have a load of long calls US Steel,Alcoa,Freeport,Mosiac etc.Up a lot since the bottom-declaring interest here-not selling yet,there's madenss in this market and if you're not watching your screen or playing long dated puts,you could get your @rse served on a platter over lunch time.

Hvae you got an options account?

options thread here.

@MvR is the guru on these.

 

but ifg you want a plain vanilla short then limiting your risk via options might be best.

SP in terms of long dated puts I'm going to get going in the next day or so in terms of setting an account up is IG any good for that. 

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sancho panza
1 minute ago, Talking Monkey said:

SP in terms of long dated puts I'm going to get going in the next day or so in terms of setting an account up is IG any good for that. 

No,you need one of the big boys,Interactive brokers,tasy works,saxobank.

 

Saxo are expensive,the pro's like M use Tasy and IB.

IG don't have individual stock options.With options you can pick a punt at $50 and leave it on for 6 months+ if you want and that's all you'll lsoe.

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sancho panza
51 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Time decay is not your friend. I’d argue spread betting is a better option - although  the downside is unlimited.

Thing is though CVfor newbies the limited liability of options presents less risk as you learn the trade.

All my calls are for Jan 21.If you're trading the shorter dated stuff then that's an issue but I don't.

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Talking Monkey
1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

No,you need one of the big boys,Interactive brokers,tasy works,saxobank.

 

Saxo are expensive,the pro's like M use Tasy and IB.

IG don't have individual stock options.With options you can pick a punt at $50 and leave it on for 6 months+ if you want and that's all you'll lsoe.

Okey dokey I'll look at Interactive Brokers. thanks SP

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Yep,  Interactive Brokers is best, or TastyWorks if you can't meet the capital requirements / account size etc of IB, and don't mind a bit of extra work translating dollar transactions to the appropriate sterling rate when doing you end of year accounts.

For "shorting" with options, I like to buy put spreads ( long a put, short a put at a lower strike ).  For the best odds and minimum risk over the long run, a good strategy is to choose your strike prices so you pay roughly 1/2 the difference between the strikes, meaning your maximum profit and maximum loss on the position is approximately the same.  

The idea is that you've effectively set up a 50:50 coin toss bet. One advantage over regular shorting is that even if the trade goes against you, to maximum loss, you don't get stopped out, and it can come back into profit given time. Statistically speaking, it's generally best not to wait for maximum profit to take the trade off.. generally 50% of the maximum profit is a good target, at which point you take the trade off and find another trade.

I'd recommend immersing yourself in TastyTrade.com, TastyWork's free educational channel to figure things out.  It mostly focuses on options selling for income rather than buying for speculative purposes,  but it's important to know both the selling and buying options strategies so you can choose the right strategy for what you want to achieve with a given trade.

If you're planning to use options mainly for directional bets, and you don't mind paying a monthly subscription, the options education and advisory service at https://www.shadowtrader.net looks very good too. 

I'm considering sub'ing to their advanced service myself for a few months as it covers strategies I'm less familiar with, and at $49 a month, or less than $12.50 a week, I know it'll easily pay for itself with trade ideas.  I make a reasonable living trading options, but even then, it's a constant learning process as I constantly refine my strategies, trading signals etc.

I'm always happy to try to answer questions here or on my other options thread.

 

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  • 4 weeks later...

Tesla is $1400.  I am going back in (or "out"?) I have set up a limit of $1405 to enter 0.1 share short..

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12 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

Tesla is $1400.  I am going back in (or "out"?) I have set up a limit of $1405 to enter 0.1 share short..

And I am in. Shorting again, glad to have much smaller amount committed to it this time

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sancho panza
10 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

And I am in. Shorting again, glad to have much smaller amount committed to it this time

I remember shorting them at $600 or so.Stunning moves.Markets are beguiling at times when you see how irrationl they can be.Jim Chanos was shroting them at $400 iirc:ph34r:

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28 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I remember shorting them at $600 or so.Stunning moves.Markets are beguiling at times when you see how irrationl they can be.Jim Chanos was shroting them at $400 iirc:ph34r:

My last shorting adventure was 400 to 900 then back to just above 400; cashed out with ~£20 loss  on one share. 

At least now I can risk it in 0.1s

They now have much more competition on both ends of the market. The only thing they have over others is better charging network apparently

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  • 2 weeks later...
Castlevania
3 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

Sorry .......you’ve lost me? 

RDSB = Royal Dutch Shell

What’s so special about Tuesday 5th August?

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