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The Big Short Thread


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Bear Hug
On 20/12/2019 at 23:59, Bear Hug said:

It's done!  Shorting 1 share of tesla.  If by some miracle beyond meat, lyft or uber run up a bit, I'll short them too.

Update.  Closed out my short position today. It was very briefly in the money but then started heading up again.  I couldn't wait anymore and crystallised about £18 loss overall.

Happy!  This was some ride - I was down about £400 at some point!  It has only taken an apocalyptic turn of events to get me out of it.  I bet without covid, tesla would have been above $1k now.

On a bright side, can use margin money to buy some discounted stocks now!

Just to add, I know I have lost thousands due to market collapse but the losses on that piece of shit Tesla were really getting to me, I feel much better now. 

Edited by Bear Hug
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Remember this feeling and bottle it for next time.My experience in the 2000 bubble was incredible.I was buying tech stocks in the 90's by pure chance as I subscribed to a newsletter called Techinvest

Dow puts are 3000pts in the money. That's a record for me. 

Shell & RDSB are the same. I just logged in to check your account and you are holding Shell and BP.

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Vendetta

Is it time to start SHORTING?

My favoured method is to buy The ETFs SHORT LEVERAGED x3 share.

Guidance is to only hold for 1 day - however I think you can get away with weekly positions. Closing the Short after 5-10 days and reopen again. 

I use H&L broker however Shorting is not something I do regularly - very little experience - so any advice welcome.

These are my favoured SHORTING LEVERAGED X 3 vehicles ON H&L: 

QQQS (NASDAQ short)

3BAS (European Bank short)

3EMS (Emerging Market Short)

3UKS (Ftse short)

3ULS (S&P 500 short)

Nasdaq has just broken 10,000 - the 6 big FAANGT stocks look very bubbly...!

Any thoughts on this? 

Any advice welcome.

 

 


 

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sancho panza
52 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

Is it time to start SHORTING?

My favoured method is to buy The ETFs SHORT LEVERAGED x3 share.

Guidance is to only hold for 1 day - however I think you can get away with weekly positions. Closing the Short after 5-10 days and reopen again. 

I use H&L broker however Shorting is not something I do regularly - very little experience - so any advice welcome.

These are my favoured SHORTING LEVERAGED X 3 vehicles ON H&L: 

QQQS (NASDAQ short)

3BAS (European Bank short)

3EMS (Emerging Market Short)

3UKS (Ftse short)

3ULS (S&P 500 short)

Nasdaq has just broken 10,000 - the 6 big FAANGT stocks look very bubbly...!

Any thoughts on this? 

Any advice welcome.

 

 


 

Personally,I'd steer clear here.Even uber bears like John Hussman are saying stand back.

I have a load of long calls US Steel,Alcoa,Freeport,Mosiac etc.Up a lot since the bottom-declaring interest here-not selling yet,there's madenss in this market and if you're not watching your screen or playing long dated puts,you could get your @rse served on a platter over lunch time.

Hvae you got an options account?

options thread here.

@MvR is the guru on these.

 

but ifg you want a plain vanilla short then limiting your risk via options might be best.

Edited by sancho panza
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Castlevania
58 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

Is it time to start SHORTING?

My favoured method is to buy The ETFs SHORT LEVERAGED x3 share.

Guidance is to only hold for 1 day - however I think you can get away with weekly positions. Closing the Short after 5-10 days and reopen again. 

I use H&L broker however Shorting is not something I do regularly - very little experience - so any advice welcome.

These are my favoured SHORTING LEVERAGED X 3 vehicles ON H&L: 

QQQS (NASDAQ short)

3BAS (European Bank short)

3EMS (Emerging Market Short)

3UKS (Ftse short)

3ULS (S&P 500 short)

Nasdaq has just broken 10,000 - the 6 big FAANGT stocks look very bubbly...!

Any thoughts on this? 

Any advice welcome.

 

 


 

Time decay is not your friend. I’d argue spread betting is a better option - although  the downside is unlimited.

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Vendetta
59 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Time decay is not your friend. I’d argue spread betting is a better option - although  the downside is unlimited.

“The downside of shorting via spread betting is unlimited”.......

Yep I agree - as I found out 20 odd years ago when shorting oil. 😂

That’s why I prefer  ETF shorting vehicle. 

A Downside of ETFs though - is their natural decay rate through charges. Very volatile as well. 

The NAS has to correct properly soon. The gains and valuations based on P/E ratio are crazy. 

The last time I saw this was NAS topped 5000 on 24th March 2000. Crazy. 

All the ‘value’ is concentrated in 5 stocks. When it blows it is going to take everything with it. I’ll still say long in many other positions. 

Like many have said I think we have one last leg up over the summer - I am looking at going Short July/August.
 

Current holdings LONG :

30% in Silver 

5% in Gold

5% Emerging Markets

5% S&P

5% Japan

5% Miners (Large)

5% Telecom (Vodaphone)

30% Shell & RDSB

10% Potash 

The Question is “ Would I buy stocks now?” 
Answer “No” will build cash and wait. 


 

 

Edited by Vendetta
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Talking Monkey
1 hour ago, Vendetta said:

Is it time to start SHORTING?

My favoured method is to buy The ETFs SHORT LEVERAGED x3 share.

Guidance is to only hold for 1 day - however I think you can get away with weekly positions. Closing the Short after 5-10 days and reopen again. 

I use H&L broker however Shorting is not something I do regularly - very little experience - so any advice welcome.

These are my favoured SHORTING LEVERAGED X 3 vehicles ON H&L: 

QQQS (NASDAQ short)

3BAS (European Bank short)

3EMS (Emerging Market Short)

3UKS (Ftse short)

3ULS (S&P 500 short)

Nasdaq has just broken 10,000 - the 6 big FAANGT stocks look very bubbly...!

Any thoughts on this? 

Any advice welcome.

 

 


 

In terms of advice I would say never short an individual stock however overpriced you think it is, take Tesla it is insanely priced far beyond any reasonable measure but that insanity could get even more detached from reality

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Talking Monkey
54 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Personally,I'd steer clear here.Even uber bears like John Hussman are saying stand back.

I have a load of long calls US Steel,Alcoa,Freeport,Mosiac etc.Up a lot since the bottom-declaring interest here-not selling yet,there's madenss in this market and if you're not watching your screen or playing long dated puts,you could get your @rse served on a platter over lunch time.

Hvae you got an options account?

options thread here.

@MvR is the guru on these.

 

but ifg you want a plain vanilla short then limiting your risk via options might be best.

SP in terms of long dated puts I'm going to get going in the next day or so in terms of setting an account up is IG any good for that. 

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sancho panza
1 minute ago, Talking Monkey said:

SP in terms of long dated puts I'm going to get going in the next day or so in terms of setting an account up is IG any good for that. 

No,you need one of the big boys,Interactive brokers,tasy works,saxobank.

 

Saxo are expensive,the pro's like M use Tasy and IB.

IG don't have individual stock options.With options you can pick a punt at $50 and leave it on for 6 months+ if you want and that's all you'll lsoe.

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sancho panza
51 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Time decay is not your friend. I’d argue spread betting is a better option - although  the downside is unlimited.

Thing is though CVfor newbies the limited liability of options presents less risk as you learn the trade.

All my calls are for Jan 21.If you're trading the shorter dated stuff then that's an issue but I don't.

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Talking Monkey
1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

No,you need one of the big boys,Interactive brokers,tasy works,saxobank.

 

Saxo are expensive,the pro's like M use Tasy and IB.

IG don't have individual stock options.With options you can pick a punt at $50 and leave it on for 6 months+ if you want and that's all you'll lsoe.

Okey dokey I'll look at Interactive Brokers. thanks SP

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Yep,  Interactive Brokers is best, or TastyWorks if you can't meet the capital requirements / account size etc of IB, and don't mind a bit of extra work translating dollar transactions to the appropriate sterling rate when doing you end of year accounts.

For "shorting" with options, I like to buy put spreads ( long a put, short a put at a lower strike ).  For the best odds and minimum risk over the long run, a good strategy is to choose your strike prices so you pay roughly 1/2 the difference between the strikes, meaning your maximum profit and maximum loss on the position is approximately the same.  

The idea is that you've effectively set up a 50:50 coin toss bet. One advantage over regular shorting is that even if the trade goes against you, to maximum loss, you don't get stopped out, and it can come back into profit given time. Statistically speaking, it's generally best not to wait for maximum profit to take the trade off.. generally 50% of the maximum profit is a good target, at which point you take the trade off and find another trade.

I'd recommend immersing yourself in TastyTrade.com, TastyWork's free educational channel to figure things out.  It mostly focuses on options selling for income rather than buying for speculative purposes,  but it's important to know both the selling and buying options strategies so you can choose the right strategy for what you want to achieve with a given trade.

If you're planning to use options mainly for directional bets, and you don't mind paying a monthly subscription, the options education and advisory service at https://www.shadowtrader.net looks very good too. 

I'm considering sub'ing to their advanced service myself for a few months as it covers strategies I'm less familiar with, and at $49 a month, or less than $12.50 a week, I know it'll easily pay for itself with trade ideas.  I make a reasonable living trading options, but even then, it's a constant learning process as I constantly refine my strategies, trading signals etc.

I'm always happy to try to answer questions here or on my other options thread.

 

Edited by MvR
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Bear Hug

Tesla is $1400.  I am going back in (or "out"?) I have set up a limit of $1405 to enter 0.1 share short..

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Bear Hug
12 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

Tesla is $1400.  I am going back in (or "out"?) I have set up a limit of $1405 to enter 0.1 share short..

And I am in. Shorting again, glad to have much smaller amount committed to it this time

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sancho panza
10 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

And I am in. Shorting again, glad to have much smaller amount committed to it this time

I remember shorting them at $600 or so.Stunning moves.Markets are beguiling at times when you see how irrationl they can be.Jim Chanos was shroting them at $400 iirc:ph34r:

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Bear Hug
28 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I remember shorting them at $600 or so.Stunning moves.Markets are beguiling at times when you see how irrationl they can be.Jim Chanos was shroting them at $400 iirc:ph34r:

My last shorting adventure was 400 to 900 then back to just above 400; cashed out with ~£20 loss  on one share. 

At least now I can risk it in 0.1s

They now have much more competition on both ends of the market. The only thing they have over others is better charging network apparently

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Vendetta
On 11/06/2020 at 11:21, Vendetta said:

“The downside of shorting via spread betting is unlimited”.......

Yep I agree - as I found out 20 odd years ago when shorting oil. 😂

That’s why I prefer  ETF shorting vehicle. 

A Downside of ETFs though - is their natural decay rate through charges. Very volatile as well. 

The NAS has to correct properly soon. The gains and valuations based on P/E ratio are crazy. 

The last time I saw this was NAS topped 5000 on 24th March 2000. Crazy. 

All the ‘value’ is concentrated in 5 stocks. When it blows it is going to take everything with it. I’ll still say long in many other positions. 

Like many have said I think we have one last leg up over the summer - I am looking at going Short July/August.
 

Current holdings LONG :

30% in Silver 

5% in Gold

5% Emerging Markets

5% S&P

5% Japan

5% Miners (Large)

5% Telecom (Vodaphone)

30% Shell & RDSB

10% Potash 

The Question is “ Would I buy stocks now?” 
Answer “No” will build cash and wait. 


 

 

I know it is bad form to re-quote your own post - however I am feeling the time is drawing near.....

The plan is to do THE BIG SHORT on Tuesday August 5th.

I will just be shorting the NASDAQ.

2 questions:

Will the market- melt-up continue until then...or collapse in next few days....?

OR....

Will the market melt-up carry on much longer than expected....Sept....October and onwards.....? 

Timing is everything.....! :) 
 

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Democorruptcy
On 11/06/2020 at 10:21, Vendetta said:

“The downside of shorting via spread betting is unlimited”.......

Yep I agree - as I found out 20 odd years ago when shorting oil. 😂

That’s why I prefer  ETF shorting vehicle. 

A Downside of ETFs though - is their natural decay rate through charges. Very volatile as well. 

The NAS has to correct properly soon. The gains and valuations based on P/E ratio are crazy. 

The last time I saw this was NAS topped 5000 on 24th March 2000. Crazy. 

All the ‘value’ is concentrated in 5 stocks. When it blows it is going to take everything with it. I’ll still say long in many other positions. 

Like many have said I think we have one last leg up over the summer - I am looking at going Short July/August.
 

Current holdings LONG :

30% in Silver 

5% in Gold

5% Emerging Markets

5% S&P

5% Japan

5% Miners (Large)

5% Telecom (Vodaphone)

30% Shell & RDSB

10% Potash 

The Question is “ Would I buy stocks now?” 
Answer “No” will build cash and wait. 

Shell & RDSB are the same. I just logged in to check your account and you are holding Shell and BP.

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Vendetta
7 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Shell & RDSB are the same. I just logged in to check your account and you are holding Shell and BP.

Sorry .......you’ve lost me? 

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Castlevania
3 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

Sorry .......you’ve lost me? 

RDSB = Royal Dutch Shell

What’s so special about Tuesday 5th August?

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Vendetta
Just now, Castlevania said:

RDSB = Royal Dutch Shell

What’s so special about Tuesday 5th August?

Haha! I meant BP and Shell..... 

My thoughts are deep in other matters ...

It reminds me of Einstein building 2 cat flaps a big one but also a small one so the small cat could fit through....

 

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Democorruptcy

Article about shorting. "We Are In The Golden Age of Fraud"

Interesting that someone often on the short side is close to Biden

 

Quote

 

Political risk is one of the reasons that Chanos is shorting gig economy comp­anies such as ride-hailing apps Uber and Lyft and online food-delivery platforms Grubhub and Just Eat Takeaway. Not only are they losing money, but he believes that there is going to be a greater political focus on low-wage workers, which poses an existential threat to their business models.

Chanos sits on the finance committee of US presidential hopeful Joe Biden, who is supporting a new California law to strengthen legal protections for gig economy workers. A Biden administration raises the prospect of higher taxes. “I think it’s fair that rates of taxation on capital probably should go up, relative to rates of taxation on earned income. I know that makes me a communist on Wall Street but I’ve always felt that.”

https://www.reddit.com/r/SecurityAnalysis/comments/hx2jl1/jim_chanos_we_are_in_the_golden_age_of_fraud/

 

 

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Vendetta

The Nasdaq

Charts are saying this one is going to potentially collapse -50% or more very very soon...

I am still planning on the BIG NAS SHORT on Tuesday 4th August.....

Thus it will probably collapse this week now......

 

 

34B8079F-5A70-411D-9052-9CCD3FBE9719.jpeg

Edited by Vendetta
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