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The Big Short Thread


sancho panza

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Just now, azzuri82 said:

Elon Musk's tweet today sent TSLA sky-rocketing! Shares were suspended from trading at $367'ish.

Apparently at $369 they can convert over $900million of bond debt (due in Feb 2019) to shares - wonder if the tweet had anything to do with pumping the shares to get rid of the debt obligations?

 

I could be mistaken but i thought i read a while ago that the price had to be at that level within 30 days of the due date not just any time. Their share price has already hit $380 before

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1 minute ago, Admiral Pepe said:

I could be mistaken but i thought i read a while ago that the price had to be at that level within 30 days of the due date not just any time. Their share price has already hit $380 before

No that sounds about right - the article I read didn't specifically mention this but I can't imagine such a share swap would be open-ended - wouldn't make sense I guess unless they got them at a 20% premium and could then sell them immediately.

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sancho panza
2 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

Wasn't sure when I seen the Dunelm and the Card Factory charts whether you were recommending these to buy or short. Then I looked at the WH Smith one. Absolutely bonkers! 

That's my view.At the mo I'm going for ones that have clearly turned and are facing headwinds which makes builders and UK retail of interest.I'm of the opinion that 2019 will be the big downturn in stocks which means I'm sifting for the canaries.

21 minutes ago, Ashby said:

I want to add some to this. My “bitter shares of regret” as I never bought.

Christian Dior (CDI Paris) - exploded after July 2016. Come on, that can’t be due to just the sale of that awful sauvage perfume can it?

and ted baker. Just a trendy for the moment brand.

 

cant seem to put up the charts here.

 

Dior has a large cross holding in LVMH I believe.LVMH aslo ran up from that date

 

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sancho panza
9 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

Elon Musk's tweet today sent TSLA sky-rocketing! Shares were suspended from trading at $367'ish.

Apparently at $369 they can convert over $900million of bond debt (due in Feb 2019) to shares - wonder if the tweet had anything to do with pumping the shares to get rid of the debt obligations?

 

A lesson in waiting for the turn if ever there was one.For me Tesla's chart is all over the shop.Volatility would burn your stops all the time.

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Talking Monkey
49 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

Musk looks like an idiot right now. The market has called him on his bullshit.

Screenshot_20180809-212654.png

I was looking at US vehicle sales in the last recession, they dropped something like 40%, I'm guessing at best case we are 18 months away from a recession, Tesla will get smashed in a downturn, absolutely smashed

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Chewing Grass
Just now, Talking Monkey said:

I was looking at US vehicle sales in the last recession, they dropped something like 40%, I'm guessing at best case we are 18 months away from a recession, Tesla will get smashed in a downturn, absolutely smashed

Been looking at the new offerings from european manufacturers i.e. PSA, VAG, Daimler Chrysler and they have all been busy up-sizing, up-marketing and up-pricing their offerings on the back of PCP/PCH deals. Mercedes are similarly trading off their historical name but their build quality is the same as most other manufacturers these days but styling is above par for the German sector.

The one thing they have in common is that their cars are way to expensive for customers to in reality afford and in many cases larger than they actually need to function.

When times are hard people buy smaller cars more suited to their needs and that applies to both new and used.

In the near future very few people will want a large diesel unless they actually need it.

The companies who invested heavily in large SUVs will feel the pinch.

Incidentally do private equity vultures Cerberus still own Mercedes via Daimler AG, it is very hard to work out, and Cerberus are complete financial sharks who have been bailed out at least twice.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerberus_Capital_Management

Cerberus is named after the mythological three-headed dog that guarded the gates of Hades. Dan Quayle, former Vice President of the United States 1989–1993, who served with former President George H. W. Bush, joined Cerberus in 1999 and is chairman of the company's Global Investments Division.

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  • 2 weeks later...

See Musk has now come out and said that "we won't be taking Tesla private" . :wanker:

Complete snake-oil salesman. Where's the handcuffs SEC?!

You sense this was the last roll of the five from Elon, he knows with the short-term corporate debt obligations they're screwed.

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1 hour ago, azzuri82 said:

See Musk has now come out and said that "we won't be taking Tesla private" . :wanker:

Complete snake-oil salesman. Where's the handcuffs SEC?!

You sense this was the last roll of the five from Elon, he knows with the short-term corporate debt obligations they're screwed.

3

cubancle1L.jpg 

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sancho panza

added a few

image.png.9556c2e1d38c98d3b7eef93fe39f402f.png

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5 hours ago, Errol said:

Steve Eisman is short Tesla as well.

It's going to zero eventually.

Fair play.Some big players are lining up vs Musk

I remember taking Mrs P to watch the Big Short and she came out and said something to the effect of 'now I see what you're on about'.Loved it,great movie that really explained the subject as well as making great entertainment

Edited by sancho panza
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sancho panza
1 minute ago, azzuri82 said:

Dennys restaurant chain in the US is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 23. They serve pancakes ffs! O.o

Could be one to watch.

Well worth a look Azzuri ,many thanks for the heads up.Also meant to post this earlier.Dominos,set new high the other day,worth noting revenue is only up 40% since 2014,whereas the shares are up 300% ++

Go figure.

Many thanks for the tip azzurri.I'll watch that one

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image.png.bafb2875aa18ebe71173a942c1c1ab08.png

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sancho panza
On 30/08/2018 at 17:12, Option5 said:

Wonga gone.

Interesting to watch their rise and fall.Sign of the times when the opayday lenders are struggling.Prov finanical too,although for different reasons.

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sancho panza
On 30/08/2018 at 16:14, azzuri82 said:

See Amazon just popped over 2,000/share for the first time. Absolute nuts.

I'm nowhere near ready for Amazon,up is up.And they're soaring.

I'm still staying away from the US but added some Land Sec,Glencore,Inchcape and Restaurant group.

 

I don't know whether you remember the old google finance,they had a lovely section below the chart that listed similar stocks.Following on from your Denny's heads up,do you know anywhere that has a similar section.Google finance now revamped and not worth visitng?

 

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10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I'm nowhere near ready for Amazon,up is up.And they're soaring.

I'm still staying away from the US but added some Land Sec,Glencore,Inchcape and Restaurant group.

 

I don't know whether you remember the old google finance,they had a lovely section below the chart that listed similar stocks.Following on from your Denny's heads up,do you know anywhere that has a similar section.Google finance now revamped and not worth visitng?

 

The related stocks are still there? 

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