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The Big Short Thread


sancho panza

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10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I'm nowhere near ready for Amazon,up is up.And they're soaring.

I'm still staying away from the US but added some Land Sec,Glencore,Inchcape and Restaurant group.

 

I don't know whether you remember the old google finance,they had a lovely section below the chart that listed similar stocks.Following on from your Denny's heads up,do you know anywhere that has a similar section.Google finance now revamped and not worth visitng?

 

I use webull. Not seen a related section but there is a screener function which you could use. Overall found the software quite comprehensive and intuitive given the overhaul of google finance. Lots of options as far as platform, PC, MAC, web, IOS and Andriod etc https://www.webull.com/download 

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13 hours ago, Castlevania said:

The related stocks are still there? 

Thanks,I've just found the 'compare' section which lists three stocks,the old one used to have ten plus.

 

 

13 hours ago, Admiral Pepe said:

I use webull. Not seen a related section but there is a screener function which you could use. Overall found the software quite comprehensive and intuitive given the overhaul of google finance. Lots of options as far as platform, PC, MAC, web, IOS and Andriod etc https://www.webull.com/download 

Cheers Pepe.

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In terms of disasterous flotations, Footasylum seems to be having a nightmare. Shares were down 50% at £0.40 this morning after another profit warning. They floated less than a year ago at ~£1.90 and peaked at over £2.60. Ouch!

Which I guess leads us to asking is this a management problem or a wider high street malaise. And if the latter it might be worth looking at JD Sports.

Edited by Castlevania
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13 hours ago, Castlevania said:

In terms of disasterous flotations, Footasylum seems to be having a nightmare. Shares were down 50% at £0.40 this morning after another profit warning. They floated less than a year ago at ~£1.90 and peaked at over £2.60. Ouch!

Which I guess leads us to asking is this a management problem or a wider high street malaise. And if the latter it might be worth looking at JD Sports.

I'd go for High St malaise .Lots of retailers going down the pan is more than a coincidence.

JD cropped up on my search of FT 350 retailers.I was surprised by their revenue growth.Chart is still firmly in uptrend with a big gap below.

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Tesla now sub-300. It's now sitting below the level it was at 4 years ago. Probably not the optimum time for a short as it'll probably bounce back a bit, but is this it? The beginning of the end for Tesla?! 

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Donald McFlurry
9 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

Tesla now sub-300. It's now sitting below the level it was at 4 years ago. Probably not the optimum time for a short as it'll probably bounce back a bit, but is this it? The beginning of the end for Tesla?! 

It's difficult to be sure of anything in this crazy market. 

It's been an interesting summer for Tesla and it's CEO / Pedophile expert Elon Musk.  Now with a SEC investigation pending when a capital raise is probably needed it does feel a little bit more likely.

I originally sold my put options when he was trying to pump the stock, but I got back in again a couple of weeks ago with the Jan 2020 $200 puts. At least now I don't care about the expiry, as much and they fit in with my overall thesis that this company is never worth more than Ford or GM. The fact that there's a lunatic at the helm even more so.

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13 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

Tesla now sub-300. It's now sitting below the level it was at 4 years ago. Probably not the optimum time for a short as it'll probably bounce back a bit, but is this it? The beginning of the end for Tesla?! 

Agreed on Tesla.I'd wait for a ride up.

Having said that,I've got about ten shorts running at the mo. and looking for more but wouldn't touch Tesla.Strangely,whilst I think it'll go to nothing,the 'leader'  seems to have cult like status and took his following to near $400 a week or two back on a Tweet.Just too unprediuctable for me.

9 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

The news said Amazon is up 75% this year, is this what things looked/felt like in 1928...?

Feels like 28 to me........too many buy backs running for a crash

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28 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Agreed on Tesla.I'd wait for a ride up.

Having said that,I've got about ten shorts running at the mo. and looking for more but wouldn't touch Tesla.Strangely,whilst I think it'll go to nothing,the 'leader'  seems to have cult like status and took his following to near $400 a week or two back on a Tweet.Just too unprediuctable for me.

Feels like 28 to me........too many buy backs running for a crash

Know what you mean re: 28 but that's what it feels like here/now. In such an interconnected, 24/7 global economy, any number of things could set this off. As stated in another thread, Asia looks like the it might be the place that kicks everything off, and we have no idea what things are like there right now. What might take American and European equity markets off the edge of a cliff might not originate in America or Europe.

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20 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

Know what you mean re: 28 but that's what it feels like here/now. In such an interconnected, 24/7 global economy, any number of things could set this off. As stated in another thread, Asia looks like the it might be the place that kicks everything off, and we have no idea what things are like there right now. What might take American and European equity markets off the edge of a cliff might not originate in America or Europe.

China shadow banking system.Italian Banks.Spainish banks.Turkey.Argentina.Mexico.QT.Brexit/EE revolting vs EU..........so many themes.

 

Personally my money goes on the Spanish banks but I'd be gambling on that.But Turkey/Argentina/Mexico/Greece all route through Santander etc..

Edited by sancho panza
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29 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

China shadow banking system.Italian Banks.Spainish banks.Turkey.Argentina.Mexico.QT.Brexit/EE revolting vs EU..........so many themes.

 

Personally my money goes on the Spanish banks but I'd be gambling on that.But Turkey/Argentina/Mexico/Greece all route through Santander etc..

Personally I don't think it really matters, what we can agree on is that everything is pretty fucked and the next 2-3 years will be extremely interesting regardless. Whatever sets it off will be remembered as 2018/19/20s Lehman Bros, although the international media will hone in on it as the "cause" of a global depression, it'll be a mere symptom.

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As a total aside whilst we’re talking about the madness of Tesla (nothing to do with shorts so please feel free to ignore). I was reading about Musks plan to build a tunnel from Hollywood to the Dodger Stadium in LA. Bonkers in itself. They held a hastily arranged public consultation and some dude realised half the small audience were plants. Bizarre character. Baffles me why he would be messing about with rubbish like this when Tesla have so many problems...

 

Edited by Lavalas
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25 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

As a total aside whilst we’re talking about the madness of Tesla (nothing to do with shorts so please feel free to ignore). I was reading about Musks plan to build a tunnel from Hollywood to the Dodger Stadium in LA. Bonkers in itself. They held a hastily arranged public consultation and some dude realised half the small audience were plants. Bizarre character. Baffles me why he would be messing about with rubbish like this when Tesla have so many problems...

 

I shared that on the Tesla thread in the main forum. It's hilarious. The whole Boring company seems like it is just a distraction, a good pr machine and a way to get more tax dollars.

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12 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

I shared that on the Tesla thread in the main forum. It's hilarious. The whole Boring company seems like it is just a distraction, a good pr machine and a way to get more tax dollars.

It’s bizarre (and looks like I need to get about the rest of the forum a bit more!). I guess all this distraction adds weight to how much the whole thing will come crashing down. 

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31 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

It’s bizarre (and looks like I need to get about the rest of the forum a bit more!). I guess all this distraction adds weight to how much the whole thing will come crashing down. 

I think the guy is a genius, but the line between true genius and sociopath is a fine one. I think you're right, it just adds to the whole bizarre episode. In 10 years people will look back at Musk and wonder how they fell for his bullshit. The weird thing is, I think he's sincere enough in his beliefs, but he just can't fathom that he might be wrong on anything, and thus is willing to do or say anything to see his ideas succeed.

Like a modern-day Ponzi with an effective PR-team behind him.

P.s. where's the Tesla thread elsewhere?! 

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3 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

I think the guy is a genius, but the line between true genius and sociopath is a fine one. I think you're right, it just adds to the whole bizarre episode. In 10 years people will look back at Musk and wonder how they fell for his bullshit. The weird thing is, I think he's sincere enough in his beliefs, but he just can't fathom that he might be wrong on anything, and thus is willing to do or say anything to see his ideas succeed.

Like a modern-day Ponzi with an effective PR-team behind him.

P.s. where's the Tesla thread elsewhere?! 

 

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15 hours ago, Donald McFlurry said:

Interestingly, there's been some people looking into BABA lately who think it's a massive fraud like Enron.

An interesting read:

https://deep-throat-ipo.blogspot.com

Fascinating insight.Thanks for psoting.

22 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

Personally I don't think it really matters, what we can agree on is that everything is pretty fucked and the next 2-3 years will be extremely interesting regardless. Whatever sets it off will be remembered as 2018/19/20s Lehman Bros, although the international media will hone in on it as the "cause" of a global depression, it'll be a mere symptom.

Yes quite.They will never talk about the banking system needing to deleverage.

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When do the margin calls happen for Tesla? Smoking (although didn't inhale) on live camera probably didn't fill stockholders with a lot of confidence. Head of Accounting quit too after only a month in the job.

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2 hours ago, Admiral Pepe said:

When do the margin calls happen for Tesla? Smoking (although didn't inhale) on live camera probably didn't fill stockholders with a lot of confidence. Head of Accounting quit too after only a month in the job.

:D

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5 hours ago, Admiral Pepe said:

When do the margin calls happen for Tesla? Smoking (although didn't inhale) on live camera probably didn't fill stockholders with a lot of confidence. Head of Accounting quit too after only a month in the job.

It’s legal in California!

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19 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

It’s legal in California!

I know! I couldn't care less that he took a toke on a blunt or not, whether its legal or not. It really isn't a good look for a CEO to be doing that for the world to see. Yep the millenials/liberals love it, but how about the big wigs at the Great Vampire Squid writing Elon his cheques? Or other institual investors such as Baillie Gifford? Nontheless I don't think it was teh the toke that was the cause. Having watched the first hour of the podcast more damage was done in the first 15 minutes listeneing to him talking about the his Boring company, sheesh he gave the game up right away.

 

Edited by Admiral Pepe
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