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TheCountOfNowhere

Housing Market has fallen for the fist time since 2011

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This is a significant turning point

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/06/20/uk-housing-market-loses-1bn-value/

 

"For the first time since 2011 the total value of the UK’s housing market dropped. In the year to December 2017 the market lost £1.2bn in value, falling to a total of £259bn."

Despite the rises oop north the south is dragging the total value of UK housing stock down.

It's probably no coincidence that #TermFunding ended recently.

 

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

sounds low that, thought it was worth in the trilllions gazillions, or is that transactions?

Assume 20,000,000 properties at average price of £250,000 gives a value of 5,000,000,000,000 which IIRC re the zeroes would be £5 trillion. So you can adjust the # properties and average value to get a total value of UK property, the grauiad had the value at £6 trillion in Nov 2017.

to add the FT had the value (I would say property priced at in total not 'value') as £7 trillion as did Savills (add date) Jan 2018

Edited by satch

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

A trilllions gazillions, That's just how much people owe on that 900 bn.

where does 900bn come into it?

is that what 1 house costs on right move these days?, does an entire town have to chip in to buy a house?

Edited by leonardratso

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

anyway, a drop is a start, we need a huge slump but i suppose that will take a while (hopefully a few more days hahahaha).

The number are probably (round figures); £260bn 100,000 transactions per month at £230,000 per property. The total valuation of the property market is say £5 trillion so the 260bn represents 5% of the £5 trillion. Make what you will as to what a fall / loss of £1.2 bn means in a market with total transaction value of £260bn and total market valuation of £5 trillion or £7tn if you prefer the FT figures.

Edited by satch

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Posted (edited)

 

23 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

where does 900bn come into it?

is that what 1 house costs on right move these days?, does an entire town have to chip in to buy a house?

I couldnt be bothered scrolling back up to look at the real number, but you get my drift.

21 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

anyway, a drop is a start, we need a huge slump but i suppose that will take a while (hopefully a few more days hahahaha).

You've got to remember that the London falls are being offset by rises in the north.

 

Either the rises in the North have now stopped or the drops in the south have accelerated.

 THIS IS BIG NEWS. 

Going to be an interesting winter.

If they restart Term Funding or FLS then just leave the UK.

 

If they dont then mortgage rates, regardless of IRs, will rise and prices will head back to 2010/2004 prices, if they raise IRs, sit back and watch the collapse.

I suspect the U.S. FEDs action and the ECB's announcement means the the QE/FLS/Term Funding madness is over ( for now ) and some sort of mortgage rate rises and associated house price falls are baked in.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

THAT'S NOT NEWS WE ALL KNOW THE PRICES ARE INSANE.

Why did you change the content of your post, it had an example of an over priced flat with the floor space circled and I responded with similar. Have you changed it to try and make me look stupid? Why did you change the contents of your post?

Some flat in Forest Gate for 265k and 35m2 IIRC, perhaps you can confirm

Edited by satch

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, satch said:

Why did you change the content of your post, it had an example of an over priced flat with the floor space circled and I responded with similar.

I accidentally cut and paste it in and couldnt see how to delete it.  I worked it out eventually.

 

Quote

Have you changed it to try and make me look stupid? Why did you change the contents of your post?

No, I think your doing that yourself.

Get a grip man.

 

Here's the post I made on twitter 33 mins ago, my above post was 31 mins ago.

I did a ctrl V by accident and couldnt delete it.

Stop with the paranoia dud, it's unhealthy

 

More
Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I accidentally cut and paste it in and couldnt see how to delete it.  I worked it out eventually.

 

No, I think your doing that yourself.

Get a grip man.

So you did change the contents after I had responded to the mistaken post (every one can make mistakes)  but again the snide 'Get a grip man.' An apology for your mistake would be in order.

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18 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I accidentally cut and paste it in and couldnt see how to delete it.  I worked it out eventually.

 

No, I think your doing that yourself.

Get a grip man.

 

Here's the post I made on twitter 33 mins ago, my above post was 31 mins ago.

I did a ctrl V by accident and couldnt delete it.

Stop with the paranoia dud, it's unhealthy

 

More

Not paranoid but just surprised at your contant snide remarks ....' you've type more you must be right .... get a grip .... stop with the paranoia'.  I thought you were better than that and would have more considered responses but now you final word is always some snide comment when you either do not understand  or have no reasoned response, seems I was wrong.

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, satch said:

So you did change the contents after I had responded to the mistaken post (every one can make mistakes)  but again the snide 'Get a grip man.' An apology for your mistake would be in order.

You've seriously lost the plot, why the **** would I apologize for accidentally adding something to a post, then deleting it just because you then post something, without me knowing,  in reply to it, then start having a go at me for doing it, then when I point it out start defaming me.

You clearly have an issue with me. I have no idea what I have done to warrant that.  Goodbye (sadly, ignored).

 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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3 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

You've seriously lost the plot, why the **** would I apologize for accidentally adding something to a post, then deleting it just because you then post something, without me knowing,  in reply to it, then start having a go at me for doing it, then when I point it out start defaming me.

You clearly have an issue with me. I have no idea what I have done to warrant that.  Goodbye (sadly, ignored).

 

The So-called count will not read this but he lost the argument / discussion on another thread and so now has me on ignore (getting like to old place when people lost the plot) when asked how the bankers (not the banks) would 'crash' the market, I outlined a possible out come over the next few years and he / she did not understand  and so I was told ' ... I was probably  right as I had typed more words'.  This will be seen by the paranoid count as defamation but anyone  can check the thread (LSL data and see the posts and see how unreasonable I have been ... you know asking questions quoting monthly transaction numbers that sort of thing. Bye count. I can ignore as well and perhaps have discussions with members rather than receive inane comments.

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14 minutes ago, satch said:

The So-called count will not read this but he lost the argument / discussion on another thread and so now has me on ignore (getting like to old place when people lost the plot) when asked how the bankers (not the banks) would 'crash' the market, I outlined a possible out come over the next few years and he / she did not understand  and so I was told ' ... I was probably  right as I had typed more words'.  This will be seen by the paranoid count as defamation but anyone  can check the thread (LSL data and see the posts and see how unreasonable I have been ... you know asking questions quoting monthly transaction numbers that sort of thing. Bye count. I can ignore as well and perhaps have discussions with members rather than receive inane comments.

Out of interest did you watch that video I posted in the the LSL thread? I think Professor Werner explains it quite well how the banks in England are operating especially in regards to mortgages and loans. It might help with understanding where the Count is coming from, maybe not, who knows xD

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7 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

Out of interest did you watch that video I posted in the the LSL thread? I think Professor Werner explains it quite well how the banks in England are operating especially in regards to mortgages and loans. It might help with understanding where the Count is coming from, maybe not, who knows xD

I watched half yesterday as I then needed to sort some 'stuff' urgently. But will finish watching today and from what I have seen already, I agree with ... banks should be a low level enabling service rather than what they are today .. I will see if, by the end the Prof says that,  the evil bankers are going to crash the market by raising interest rates and then steal all of our houses.

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4 minutes ago, satch said:

I watched half yesterday as I then needed to sort some 'stuff' urgently. But will finish watching today and from what I have seen already, I agree with ... banks should be a low level enabling service rather than what they are today .. I will see if, by the end the Prof says that,  the evil bankers are going to crash the market by raising interest rates and then steal all of our houses.

If I understand what Werner is saying (I am merely simple man) the banks simply won't care if a house that was once selling for £500k is now selling for £100k. They'll merely write more promissory notes with a higher interest rate. It's not like they have the money, they're just push a few buttons on the screen. The legalese is very interesting. Now whether they would crash it on purpose? Who knows, but I could see from one side why they would want to restart the cycle.

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On 21/06/2018 at 11:18, Admiral Pepe said:

If I understand what Werner is saying (I am merely simple man) the banks simply won't care if a house that was once selling for £500k is now selling for £100k. They'll merely write more promissory notes with a higher interest rate. It's not like they have the money, they're just push a few buttons on the screen. The legalese is very interesting. Now whether they would crash it on purpose? Who knows, but I could see from one side why they would want to restart the cycle.

Ive been hearing about this banks crashing the housing market on purpose bollocks for many year on TOS, it really is utter bollocks.

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