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Libspero

Electric Car Market - Something Odd Going On

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Bit of background..  since I originally got my “electric shed on wheels” AKA Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV..  the entire sales team and most of our managers and applications engineers are all now driving PHEVs of one type or another..  most popular recently is the Merc version with 300bhp.

Anyway..  a colleague’s lease just came up and almost nobody is supplying them anymore.  

Mitsubishi PHEV - Not available

Merc PHEV - Not available

Golf and Passat PHEV - Not available

BMW M330E PHEV - 3 left “might be able to get you one”

So what’s going on?  Nobody can keep up with demand?  Seems like everybody wants one and nobody can supply anything until next year o.O

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Tesla promised the earth for the Tesla 3 by this summer but they have failed to deliver on production numbers so people have been getting their deposits back and going to buy other makes. Apparently you can get a better electric vehicle from the usual manufacturers for the same or less money.

I spoke with a chap who recently drove a Tesla in California. He said he would not do it again as he felt the car followed too near to the white lane lines.

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1 minute ago, The Masked Tulip said:

I spoke with a chap who recently drove a Tesla in California. He said he would not do it again as he felt the car followed too near to the white lane lines.

Sounds like he didn't drive it and trusted the fucking thing too much in the first place.

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6 minutes ago, Happy Renting said:

They don't want to build them and this years quota has been reached.

?

I’m sure you’re right..  but why?   There must be reps and managers all over the country screaming “please take my money!”  Wouldn’t you just bump the price up if demand is too high?

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9 minutes ago, Libspero said:

Bit of background..  since I originally got my “electric shed on wheels” AKA Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV..  the entire sales team and most of our managers and applications engineers are all now driving PHEVs of one type or another..  most popular recently is the Merc version with 300bhp.

Anyway..  a colleague’s lease just came up and almost nobody is supplying them anymore.  

Mitsubishi PHEV - Not available

Merc PHEV - Not available

Golf and Passat PHEV - Not available

BMW M330E PHEV - 3 left “might be able to get you one”

So what’s going on?  Nobody can keep up with demand?  Seems like everybody wants one and nobody can supply anything until next year o.O

Note how Nissan has gone dead quiet on the new Leaf and the electric NV100, I suspect they cannot get batteries or some other magic ingredient at the price to make any money.

Finance may pay a part in this as I suspect residuals are abysmal.

End of life disposal cost may be a problem, are they WEE compliant.

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Battery life and cost to replace are still not fully understood so residuals are poor. The second hand buyer will be reluctant to buy something out of warranty that may be a money pit.

I would imagine third party warranties exclude batteries or set a financial limit.

These cars are too much of an unknown quantity for most buyers and dealers.

 

2 minutes ago, The Masked Tulip said:

 

He said it was scary driving it.

Being driven by it.

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Posted (edited)

I t sounds like it might be some sort of marketing ploy.  Stimulate more demand than you would otherwise have by creating a false shortage.  Doesn't Apple do that all the time with its products.  At this point it might not make much difference to the overall sales numbers yet in the near future it could give sales numbers a big boost with buyers queuing up.

Edited by twocents

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2 hours ago, Libspero said:

Bit of background..  since I originally got my “electric shed on wheels” AKA Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV..  the entire sales team and most of our managers and applications engineers are all now driving PHEVs of one type or another..  most popular recently is the Merc version with 300bhp.

Anyway..  a colleague’s lease just came up and almost nobody is supplying them anymore.  

Mitsubishi PHEV - Not available

Merc PHEV - Not available

Golf and Passat PHEV - Not available

BMW M330E PHEV - 3 left “might be able to get you one”

So what’s going on?  Nobody can keep up with demand?  Seems like everybody wants one and nobody can supply anything until next year o.O

I suspect PHEV developments and investments have been abandoned in favour of electrics. Rightly so to some extent, people have been buying them for tax advantages, especially in London, and never charging them up. The makers have not been making an effort to make the best car they can, but to just jump through hoops set up by governments. The biggest Prius, the one most used as a taxi that does about 50mpg, came out in 2011 - where’s it’s replacement with a much more powerful battery and a super-capacitor making it do 80+ mpg? Battery tech has about doubled in efficiency since 2011.

Can’t say who is pulling the strings, but they’ve definitely been going slow, this unavailability of PHEVs is just another manifestation. Where’s the I5? The I3 came out in 2013.

Kia Niros not posh enough for sales people? They have a hybrid, a PHEV and soon an electric with 250 miles range. They look ok to me, but I’m not big on the car status thing. 

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3 hours ago, Libspero said:

Bit of background..  since I originally got my “electric shed on wheels” AKA Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV..  the entire sales team and most of our managers and applications engineers are all now driving PHEVs of one type or another..  most popular recently is the Merc version with 300bhp.

Anyway..  a colleague’s lease just came up and almost nobody is supplying them anymore.  

Mitsubishi PHEV - Not available

Merc PHEV - Not available

Golf and Passat PHEV - Not available

BMW M330E PHEV - 3 left “might be able to get you one”

So what’s going on?  Nobody can keep up with demand?  Seems like everybody wants one and nobody can supply anything until next year o.O

I had a look at the Hyundai Ionic PHEV the other day- they were certainly keen to secure sales for that. 

I thought it was a reasonable car for 25K (list price) with a 8.9kwh battery

 

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3 hours ago, Kurt Barlow said:

I had a look at the Hyundai Ionic PHEV the other day- they were certainly keen to secure sales for that. 

I thought it was a reasonable car for 25K (list price) with a 8.9kwh battery

 

Think the Ioniq has an image and/or size issue. Similar mechanics to the bigger Kia Niro that looks like a crossover, so the Ioniq is more economical, as good or better than a Prius - but the Niro is outselling it 3 or 4 to 1.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

Think the Ioniq has an image and/or size issue. Similar mechanics to the bigger Kia Niro that looks like a crossover, so the Ioniq is more economical, as good or better than a Prius - but the Niro is outselling it 3 or 4 to 1.

Given the choice of the two I’d probably extend the lease on my Outlander another year and see what else came out (mine is up at the end of the summer).

From my point of view the Niro looks ok in terms of size and boot space for two babies a push chair and suitcases (that would rule out the Ioniq for me).  The other consideration is both look a bit underpowered at 140 bhp.  That’s fine for a regular car,  but these PHEVs weigh over 2 tonnes in most cases.  The reason the Merc is the single most popular model with the sales guys at the moment is nothing to do with brand snobbery (most hate that it’s a Merc)..  what attracted all of them was the 300 BHP.. the thing goes like a rocket.

Edited by Libspero

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5 hours ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

I suspect PHEV developments and investments have been abandoned in favour of electrics. 

Can’t say who is pulling the strings, but they’ve definitely been going slow, this unavailability of PHEVs is just another manifestation. Where’s the I5? The I3 came out in 2013.

The biggest changes I’m aware of are the upcoming move to real-world emissions testing (all the test /development companies are moving over to PEMs based emission monitoring en-masse).

Also, I heard the government are moving the goal posts again in 2020 so that PHEVs will need to have a longer EV range than at present to still receive the same tax incentives (I think something like 50-60 miles instead of 20)..  so that will require development and probably issues with space and cost.   

The problem with all electric (for company cars) will be range anxiety..  250 mile range spec will probably translate to 150 real world.  That restricts you to journeys of 50-60 miles or less (leaving a little spare in case of traffic jams etc)..  or knowing you are going to have to mess about finding / waiting for charging.

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I do wonder about the residual values of Electrics and PHEVs. With battery technology at it's present state, secondhand cars will often be due a battery change, and that will be a major cost factor.

I forsee these vehicles being scrapped after a short lifetime due to the prohibitive cost of replacing knackered/past peak efficiency  batteries.

And consequently, new electrics and PHEVs will depreciate in vlue fast, in turn exacerbating the problem.

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3 hours ago, Libspero said:

The biggest changes I’m aware of are the upcoming move to real-world emissions testing (all the test /development companies are moving over to PEMs based emission monitoring en-masse).

Also, I heard the government are moving the goal posts again in 2020 so that PHEVs will need to have a longer EV range than at present to still receive the same tax incentives (I think something like 50-60 miles instead of 20)..  so that will require development and probably issues with space and cost.   

The problem with all electric (for company cars) will be range anxiety..  250 mile range spec will probably translate to 150 real world.  That restricts you to journeys of 50-60 miles or less (leaving a little spare in case of traffic jams etc)..  or knowing you are going to have to mess about finding / waiting for charging.

Regarding range you just have to see what the range quoted for the same vehicle on the US system is, basically ignore totally any figures from the EU system, which is probably the reason they're changing systems.  Pretty sure the 64kwh Niro will be over 200 miles real-world. 

There are a lot of Teslas in Geneva now. 

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2 minutes ago, Happy Renting said:

I do wonder about the residual values of Electrics and PHEVs. With battery technology at it's present state, secondhand cars will often be due a battery change, and that will be a major cost factor.

I forsee these vehicles being scrapped after a short lifetime due to the prohibitive cost of replacing knackered/past peak efficiency  batteries.

And consequently, new electrics and PHEVs will depreciate in vlue fast, in turn exacerbating the problem.

ok for those with a house or other potential use for a battery. A past-peak 64kwh battery v. useful as a house battery.

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4 minutes ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

ok for those with a house or other potential use for a battery. A past-peak 64kwh battery v. useful as a house battery.

Very useful as a house battery, however I would imagine the replacement batteries will be on an exchange basis, the manufacturers can then replace the cells and sell again and use the old cells in a new  product for houses/industry.

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1 minute ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

ok for those with a house or other potential use for a battery. A past-peak 64kwh battery v. useful as a house battery.

This sounds fairly feasible,  but probably requiring industry standard battery banks to be very cost effective (Lithium cells require a lot of active management,  having to unwire and rewire hundreds of cells individually would probably be quite a costly exercise).  A standard design with standard/transferable safety electronics allowing you to just "plug and play" would make it a very interesting proposal..   provided there was some sort of incentive to do so rather than just sell whatever green energy you are producing back into the grid like most do at the moment.

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36 minutes ago, Happy Renting said:

I do wonder about the residual values of Electrics and PHEVs. With battery technology at it's present state, secondhand cars will often be due a battery change, and that will be a major cost factor.

I forsee these vehicles being scrapped after a short lifetime due to the prohibitive cost of replacing knackered/past peak efficiency  batteries.

And consequently, new electrics and PHEVs will depreciate in vlue fast, in turn exacerbating the problem.

You're thinking of it wrong -- to steal the famous Ferrari quote, with an electric car you're buying the battery, the rest of the car comes for free.

But it is an important point; for me, electric cars would look more attractive if there were standardised battery modules (with commonality across brands).  I could then buy a system happy in the knowledge that market forces would allow me to change battery at a decent price down the road.  As it is, I have the knowledge that the manufacturers will make it difficult to integrate a replacement battery so that they can sell me a new car instead. 

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2 minutes ago, dgul said:

You're thinking of it wrong -- to steal the famous Ferrari quote, with an electric car you're buying the battery, the rest of the car comes for free.

But it is an important point; for me, electric cars would look more attractive if there were standardised battery modules (with commonality across brands).  I could then buy a system happy in the knowledge that market forces would allow me to change battery at a decent price down the road.  As it is, I have the knowledge that the manufacturers will make it difficult to integrate a replacement battery so that they can sell me a new car instead. 

Yeah the I3 out later this year has double the battery capacity of the 2013 I3. BMW have imo shot themselves in the foot by not providing a cheap easy way for original owners to upgrade.They may think they're being clever behaving like Apple but all they've done is put off other buyers.

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7 minutes ago, dgul said:

You're thinking of it wrong -- to steal the famous Ferrari quote, with an electric car you're buying the battery, the rest of the car comes for free.

But it is an important point; for me, electric cars would look more attractive if there were standardised battery modules (with commonality across brands).  I could then buy a system happy in the knowledge that market forces would allow me to change battery at a decent price down the road.  As it is, I have the knowledge that the manufacturers will make it difficult to integrate a replacement battery so that they can sell me a new car instead. 

But you confirm my point. Once the battery is knackered, the car is practically worthless. Yes, you will be able to buy replacement batteries, but they will be prohibitively expensive.

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