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Strawberry

No more petrol and diesel cars within 8 years

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/14/petrol-cars-will-vanish-2025-says-us-report/
 

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No more petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within eight years. The entire market for land transport will switch to electrification, leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century.

 

 

Seems an incredibly short timeline to predict that this will happen. Have not been following the latest developments in electric vehicles, but I was in a Golf GLE recently and it was very impressive, albeit boosted by a normal engine. I don't believe the technology is anywhere close just yet, but if this prediction does come to pass it will have huge impact in our everyday lives in terms of new infrastructure required.

 

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7 minutes ago, Fossildog said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/14/petrol-cars-will-vanish-2025-says-us-report/
 

 

Seems an incredibly short timeline to predict that this will happen. Have not been following the latest developments in electric vehicles, but I was in a Golf GLE recently and it was very impressive, albeit boosted by a normal engine. I don't believe the technology is anywhere close just yet, but if this prediction does come to pass it will have huge impact in our everyday lives in terms of new infrastructure required.

 

Maybe they're pushing it a bit to say 2025, especially as people will keep old classics out in the country where they have space and emissions aren't such an issue, but I don't reckon they're far out. Check this out - it's not yet on the market, but if it's for real, this is a big step forward.

http://newatlas.com/storedot-flashbattery-quick-charging/49515/

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9 minutes ago, Fossildog said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/14/petrol-cars-will-vanish-2025-says-us-report/
 

 

Seems an incredibly short timeline to predict that this will happen. Have not been following the latest developments in electric vehicles, but I was in a Golf GLE recently and it was very impressive, albeit boosted by a normal engine. I don't believe the technology is anywhere close just yet, but if this prediction does come to pass it will have huge impact in our everyday lives in terms of new infrastructure required.

 

If true, it will also immediately halt the influence of the Middle East. 

Just now, MrPin said:

This is as predictable as the "paperless office"xD

And the paperless toilet. xD

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He sounds like that the Futurologist who calls into "Down the Line".  He's gone for the headline by making the ludicrous timespan claim.

Long term I think he's right for big cities like London where a combination of punitive taxes on petrol / diesel cars and subsidy for electric will make this happen sooner or later.  If I was still living in central London and wanted a car for occasional short hops then I'd be in a car club rather than owning one and if that was electric so much the better as no need to fill up since they'd be left at charging points.

He is however wrong for rural areas where petrol and diesel cars will never go away because the infratsructure isn't there.  It's the same reason that a lot of rural properties have big oil storage tanks for their heating because they're not on the gas network.  Now theoretically you can put everyone on the gas network or have charging points in every hamlet but practically neither will happen as a result of cost.

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43 minutes ago, One percent said:

If true, it will also immediately halt the influence of the Middle East. 

And the paperless toilet. xD

I would say HALVE rather than HALT.

The electric plane, container ship, HGV, tank, or tractor is not going to happen any time soon.  Plus there remains all the petrochemicals usages.

It is interesting though that the Peak Oil dictrine of which I have been accepting for many years is not, as I thought, Peak Oil Supply but now Peak Oil Demand.

Edited by Frank Hovis

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10 minutes ago, One percent said:

If true, it will also immediately halt the influence of the Middle East. 

And the paperless toilet. xD

Welcome to the Middle East! You only get bum-washing hose, and a hole in the ground to have a poo!

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9 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

He sounds like that the Futurologist who calls into "Down the Line".  He's gone for the headline by making the ludicrous timespan claim.

Long term I think he's right for big cities like London where a combination of punitive taxes on petrol / diesel cars and subsidy for electric will make this happen sooner or later.  If I was still living in central London and wanted a car for occasional short hops then I'd be in a car club rather than owning one and if that was electric so much the better as no need to fill up since they'd be left at charging points.

He is however wrong for rural areas where petrol and diesel cars will never go away because the infratsructure isn't there.  It's the same reason that a lot of rural properties have big oil storage tanks for their heating because they're not on the gas network.  Now theoretically you can put everyone on the gas network or have charging points in every hamlet but practically neither will happen as a result of cost.

How many people aren't on the electricity grid?

I'd guess that a charging point in your car parking space/garage at home will be pretty ubiquitous in a few years(maybe not 8 years though). What do they cost, a few hundred quid? The grid management will have to step up to the plate though...

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6 minutes ago, swissy_fit said:

How many people aren't on the electricity grid?

I'd guess that a charging point in your car parking space/garage at home will be pretty ubiquitous in a few years(maybe not 8 years though). What do they cost, a few hundred quid? The grid management will have to step up to the plate though...

How would you deal with charging if you lived in a terraced house, with no drive, no garage, and no guarantee that somebody else isn't parked outside your house when you get home from work?

 

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Hmm. 90 KWh in 5 minutes so a 1.08MW / 4500A charge rate excluding losses. That's not going to be happening at your house, ever.

I wonder where all this extra generating capacity is going to come from.

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I just thought i'd have a quick look at current technology and 'Googled' electric vehicle and clicked on the Citroen berlingo

 

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No more tanks to fill at the service station! Thanks to its two electrical sockets, your vehicle can be recharged everywhere, even at home! The household 240 volt socket allows a 100% recharge in approx 10 hours, whereas the quick charging socket will allow you to fully recharge in 30 minutes on dedicated terminals. What’s more, the batteries do not discharge when the vehicle is not moving. Better still, they automatically recharge when slowing down and braking... Which shows that responsibility pays off!

 

Going by that one example, I think electric has got to improve a bit to be viable in 8 years for anything outside UK towns or cities.

or I could be biased having just bought a Euro 6 diesel, that in 8 years i'll be looking to sell on, worryingly xD

Edited by Hopeful

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21 minutes ago, swissy_fit said:

How many people aren't on the electricity grid?

I'd guess that a charging point in your car parking space/garage at home will be pretty ubiquitous in a few years(maybe not 8 years though). What do they cost, a few hundred quid? The grid management will have to step up to the plate though...

I know a pub on Dartmoor that isn't so there will be a few.

If you visualise a lot of old villages, especailly pretty seaside ones, then where are the cars?  They're all in back streets well away from the majority of the houses which have no parking at all.  So you can't have your own charger and are then reliant upon the Council fitting and maintaining enough that you will be able to get your car on one.

I know its just an anecdote but I knew someone in Polperro (very quaint village on the south coast of Cornwall) who lived in the village but had to park her car a fifteen minute walk away.

These self driving / everybody on electric car ideas come out of the US where a great deal of the country has wide straight roads and even the cheapest house has enough land to park half a dozen cars on it.  It doesn't work so well in for the medieval towns, villages, and road systems of much of the UK.

 

Quck edit:  In these debates people tend to take sides so to be clear my intended retirement "Fleet" will be a diesel camper van for occasional use and an electric car which I will charge in my garage from my Solar Panels so will have zero fuel bills for that.  So I am not at all against electric cars because i want one!  They're just not there in terms of price and range as yet to replace my commuter car.

 

Edited by Frank Hovis

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56 minutes ago, Hopeful said:

I just thought i'd have a quick look at current technology and 'Googled' electric vehicle and clicked on the Citroen berlingo

 

 

Going by that one example, I think electric has got to improve a bit to be viable in 8 years for anything outside UK towns or cities.

or I could be biased having just bought a Euro 6 diesel, that in 8 years i'll be looking to sell on, worryingly xD

Our household bought a new Euro 6 diesel too and it'll probably be our last so we are writing off the capital cost over 7 year as I don't expect it to be worth selling once electric vehicles really take off.

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2 minutes ago, longtomsilver said:

Our household bought a new Euro 6 diesel too and it'll probably be our last so we are writing off the capital cost over 7 year as I don't expect it to be worth selling once electric vehicles really take off.

Mine's a pick up, so I hope if i don't need it in 8 years it will still have some commercial value

Edited by Hopeful

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1 hour ago, SpectrumFX said:

How would you deal with charging if you lived in a terraced house, with no drive, no garage, and no guarantee that somebody else isn't parked outside your house when you get home from work?

 

Frank mentioned London possibly being the leader with it not being possible elsewhere. In terms of usage I'd agree, but in terms of practicality I'd say the opposite for this very reason, I live in a block of flats, think there are about 30, but there are only 10 parking spaces, none accessibility to electricity. Assuming they could be dealt with that's still a vast majority of flats without charging capability. 

It's not the case that people in the flats don't have cars either, they do they just get parked on the street. I for example couldn't charge an electric vehicle even if I wanted one.

The infrastructure simply isn't there. Where I live the population is 13,620 not sure how many cars, certainly in the thousands.. there are 2 electric charging points. I doubt more than 2% of the population (locally) has a drive/garage given it's either flats or houses that were built before the car was widespread. 

It's currently a tripple wammy, higher cost of vehicle to begin with, practicality of vehicle (i.e. rang) and practicality of charging. I can certainly see the first two becoming better over the next few years, the last has a long way to go.

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Maybe, maybe not.

Stepping back, it always amazes me that we have all these helth scare - mobiles frying our brains! (they dont),

plastics shrinking our dicks (maybe, slightly).

But then you have cars driving through cities and towns, gassing people, with well known cause of death and ill health, never mind running people over.

And the outrage?

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1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

I know a pub on Dartmoor that isn't so there will be a few.

If you visualise a lot of old villages, especailly pretty seaside ones, then where are the cars?  They're all in back streets well away from the majority of the houses which have no parking at all.  So you can't have your own charger and are then reliant upon the Council fitting and maintaining enough that you will be able to get your car on one.

I know its just an anecdote but I knew someone in Polperro (very quaint village on the south coast of Cornwall) who lived in the village but had to park her car a fifteen minute walk away.

These self driving / everybody on electric car ideas come out of the US where a great deal of the country has wide straight roads and even the cheapest house has enough land to park half a dozen cars on it.  It doesn't work so well in for the medieval towns, villages, and road systems of much of the UK.

 

Quck edit:  In these debates people tend to take sides so to be clear my intended retirement "Fleet" will be a diesel camper van for occasional use and an electric car which I will charge in my garage from my Solar Panels so will have zero fuel bills for that.  So I am not at all against electric cars because i want one!  They're just not there in terms of price and range as yet to replace my commuter car.

 

The point of the article was that people would migrate en-masse to self-drive.    So the cars will be off in a field somewhere recharging, and will go off to the quaint village to pick up people on demand.

I'm not so sure, but there will be an impact along these lines.  I doubt self-drive will cope with Polperro, though.

My distopian view of the future is that we all move to self-driving cars, as normal cars will be deemed too dangerous for people to drive but normal people will end up riding bikes everywhere as they'll be priced out of the self-drive market.

[To put some flesh on my theory, it won't be the self-driving cost saving, but rather the presumption that everyone will have to be in a new clean car.  So the costs to be driven down to the user will be the currently middle-class  'acceptable' £400+ per month (fancy new car + servicing + fuel + insurance, but mainly fancy new car) -- and poorer (let's say working-class) people who manage to stay on the road for less won't have a cheaper option.]

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1 hour ago, Hopeful said:

The household 240 volt socket allows a 100% recharge in approx 10 hours, whereas the quick charging socket will allow you to fully recharge in 30 minutes on dedicated terminals. 

Not sure of the flow of vehicles in a typical petrol station at a motorway services, but 30 minutes while very quick is totally impractical for a high number of vehicles. 

I've never had to wait more than 10 minutes at a petrol station, lets say you could build the general infrastructure, if the place is full I'm looking at potentially an hours delay if I need to recharge.

Got nothing against electric cars at all, but we are miles off in terms of practicality IMO. 

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I agree with what I think is the consensus..  that it will probably happen,  but not in 8 years. The main argument seems to be the lower costs of production will make them more accessible, but if you look at the cost of second hand Nissan leafs they go for very little with a few years on them. I wonder why people are getting rid of them at such a loss and why there's no massive demand for them?   

10 hours+ charging may be a problem plus all the cables hanging out of windows and across pavements on every street.  Then you have range anxiety..  electric range seems a lot like ICE MPG,  vastly exaggerated by manufacturers compared to what you can reasonably expect to see.

I envisage them becoming popular household second cars..  but not more than that for at least ten years unless technology and infrastructure advances pretty significantly. 

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1 hour ago, NTB said:

Hmm. 90 KWh in 5 minutes so a 1.08MW / 4500A charge rate excluding losses. That's not going to be happening at your house, ever.

I wonder where all this extra generating capacity is going to come from.

Diesel generators :D

Just like the "Green" wood chip burning Drax that produces a bigger carbon footprint at a higher cost than burning coal ...we need to keep the Canadian loging companies going dontcah know

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5 minutes ago, gilf said:

Not sure of the flow of vehicles in a typical petrol station at a motorway services, but 30 minutes while very quick is totally impractical for a high number of vehicles. 

I've never had to wait more than 10 minutes at a petrol station, lets say you could build the general infrastructure, if the place is full I'm looking at potentially an hours delay if I need to recharge.

Got nothing against electric cars at all, but we are miles off in terms of practicality IMO. 

 

And that's 30 minutes every ~100 miles, currently. Add in the ad hoc charging points and your journey could become quite tedious.

Edited by Hopeful

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4 minutes ago, gilf said:

Not sure of the flow of vehicles in a typical petrol station at a motorway services, but 30 minutes while very quick is totally impractical for a high number of vehicles. 

I've never had to wait more than 10 minutes at a petrol station, lets say you could build the general infrastructure, if the place is full I'm looking at potentially an hours delay if I need to recharge.

Got nothing against electric cars at all, but we are miles off in terms of practicality IMO. 

The obvious thing is swappable battery packs - drive over a spot in a "petrol" station and a machine drops one pack out and inserts a fresh one. Quicker than filling up with petrol. Problem currently is lack of mature battery tech and of course infrastructure.

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