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TheCountOfNowhere

The slump in London house prices is accelerating

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2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

https://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/london-house-prices-falling-at-fastest-rate-in-almost-a-decade-but-theyre-still-50-per-cent-higher-a121716.html

"The slump in London house prices is accelerating with the market now falling at its fastest pace for almost a decade, new figures reveal today."

Snowball down a mountain time.

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12 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

London has gone from the prime place people want to live, to the last place people want to live, so its not surprising. Quite a fall from grace.

2 things about a collapse in London house prices

1) The people moving out of London to the shires with pockets of tax free cash will end.

2) The people who moved out of London and paid 2/3/4x what the locals can afford will have no one to sell to.

London has been the main driver of the Mega-Bubble

London will be the end of it too.

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19 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

@TheCountOfNowhere   one from the old guard from TO

 

JD's on twitter ( under his own name and @boomandbustshow ) saying the same thing.

He was right, IIRC, about the US raising rates and anyone who thinks the UK wont be forced to raise rates is short sighted IMHO, although it could all go wrong again quote quickly.

Time will tell.

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On 28/06/2018 at 13:52, Green Devil said:

London has gone from the prime place people want to live, to the last place people want to live, so its not surprising. Quite a fall from grace.

London seems to be quite a stabby place nowadays obviously Liberals won't admit to this but they will stealthily and quietly extricate themselves from there.

The next property boom will be in hideously White middle class areas outside of London.

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On 02/07/2018 at 11:21, M S E Refugee said:

London seems to be quite a stabby place nowadays obviously Liberals won't admit to this but they will stealthily and quietly extricate themselves from there.

The next property boom will be in hideously White middle class areas outside of London.

The next?

 

The current.

 

There will be no next...

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On 28/06/2018 at 14:06, TheCountOfNowhere said:

2 things about a collapse in London house prices

1) The people moving out of London to the shires with pockets of tax free cash will end.

2) The people who moved out of London and paid 2/3/4x what the locals can afford will have no one to sell to.

London has been the main driver of the Mega-Bubble

London will be the end of it too.

This bit is particularly thought-provoking.

At best they stand to lose a chunk of their prior London gains. At worst they risk negative equity if they've tried to become lord of the manor in the Shires.

In some locations that suffered the greatest influx it could lead to decades of the top-end of local housing being frozen as the occupants are unable/unwilling to crystallise their losses.

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The London mkt is made up of many markets and it is not possible to make a sweeping statement  and say with confidence that the market is crashing. Fulham SW6 for example has already seen a general 20%  correction taking the market back to 2014/15 price levels. the market in this area since end of 2017 and beginning of 2018 has seen increased activity and buyer confidence return were I would not be surprised to see price rises reported by the end of this quarter. With London professionals generally well paid and in full employment together with with low borrowing rates the best flats and houses are holding well. Until this environment change  I would say the market today is static. The secondary market across the board is struggling with a significant gulf opening up between primary and secondary locations. Those that are really suffering are the estate agents with outlets reducing staff or closing.

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this will get very funny has the ripple expands,take my hovel has an example i paid 49k the guy i bought it off paid 67k and that was nealy 6 years ago.in other words prices are still well below peak,the clusterfook on the way will be worse than 2009 the bank of england has fook all tools left to fight it with.

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9 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

With London professionals generally well paid

Average wage in London is £35k. I know a GP who had to move up north because he couldn't afford to rent alone, let alone buy. I don't see how professionals will be able to buy a house at these prices. 

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I see you made 10 random posts before starting your defense of HPI. Very convincing.

10 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Those that are really suffering are the estate agents with outlets reducing staff or closing.

This is a sign we're in the low-transaction phase that precedes a real correction.

There will be more suffering for EAs because they offer minimal value and no skill, they repeatedly fail to prepare for the cyclical downturns that are part of their industry, and because few humans could maintain the cognitive dissonance required to remain rational while playing the role. They've contributed more than their share to the suffering of others.

10 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

With London professionals generally well paid and in full employment together with with low borrowing rates the best flats and houses are holding well. Until this environment change  I would say the market today is static.

You have now repeated the same crap peddled by all vested interests. You know this is complete bullshit, but for anyone stupid enough to consider it:

- No, salaries have not kept up with HPI this century. In real terms we're down around 75%. We were plugging the gap with credit, but banks won't do that any more.

- Full employment isn't hard when everyone's a self-employed entrepreneur riding a bike for 8p per mile. It doesn't help the economy any more than it helps the entrepreneurs.

- Low rates and propped-up property prices continue to destroy the real economy. Beware the hand that feeds you.

- You may say the market is static, but that's just some words in the interwebs.

The only useful thing about your post is that it reveals your lack of imagination.

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@ Darkmarket. I’m defending no position but giving my observations as I see the market today. End of. Peoples expectations of were they would like to live or deserve to because they are a GP say are mis guided as there are a lot of people who earn a lot more in London as well as family money. My two Bell weathers for the London market are Fulham and Nottinghill. I use these two areas as they are largely city workers. With the flood of foreign money now effectively a trickle these two areas no longer have competing buyers from the ripple effect of prime central London. The market therefore corrected to reflect their wage income which as a whole is a domestic market as opposed to foreign buyers. The uptick in sale volume although low is as a result of the market correcting. At a guess I would say the last quarter of 2018 the volume of able buyers will dry up through MMR bank of mum and dad etc forcing the market to dry up again. Then the market will correct again. I consider the market will rinse and repeat again until an inflection point were momentum and sentiment means buyers hold off waiting for further reductions. That is when the market will accelerate down. When that is or it’s severity is anyone’s guess.

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2 hours ago, darkmarket said:

This is a sign we're in the low-transaction phase that precedes a real correction.

We've had these signs for the last 8 yeas and prices continue to rise, there is no signs of a correction whatsoever, just blind optimism that tightening credit will make buying a property more expensive and that is just blind optimism as Hammond just handed Carney best part of a trillion pound for when there is a down turn. Insanely overpriced property in London having a mild correction means fuck all to me or anyone looking to buy a shit 90m2 house for a mere 8 times average UK salary

2 hours ago, darkmarket said:

- Low rates and propped-up property prices continue to destroy the real economy. Beware the hand that feeds you.

Whose economy though?  it has destroyed my personal economy but it is very beneficial to the middle class of Southern England who the Tory party run the country for.

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I've noticed that despite lots of properties advertised for sale being reduced in price, not significantly, maybe up to 5%, there are a lot that stay unsold for a while. 

I've also noticed around where I live that there has been an uptick in sales over recent weeks, mainly first time buyers as the sales I've been notified of are 2 bedroom flats and houses.

Anecdotal only, not sure what to make of it. 

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Hammond just handed Carney best part of a trillion pound for when there is a down turn.

There is divided opinion in the city on where this and how it will be used. Traders and hedge funds I speak with are more in line with Durham Borns excellent thread. Bankers think it is another prop to bail them out. I think they are wrong as there is no loner the political will to bail out the banks again, although we will never know as they will not report a bail out to the general population. This is why we need to watch what the market is telling us not what we desire. Emotion needs to be put to one side. Up until 2011 I thought we were in the cycle that Durham Born talks about and positioned myself accordingly until I challenged my opinion and decided I was wrong and went full steam into housing and have done very well that I am now mortgage free. I see another opportunity to enter the market  or a sweet spot.  If holding sterling and saving in sterling buying a flat or a house will remain a dream. For me I see owning silver and or gold , even dollars and later converting back to sterling at the sweet point as the best means of owning a property potentially mortgage free. These are just my thoughts.

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13 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

I’m defending no position but giving my observations as I see the market today

Your original post:

Quote

With London professionals generally well paid and in full employment together with with low borrowing rates the best flats and houses are holding well. Until this environment change  I would say the market today is static.

This is exactly the argument advanced by banks, central banks and estate agents.

On 07/07/2018 at 20:51, Agent ZigZag said:

Those that are really suffering are the estate agents with outlets reducing staff or closing.

Huh.

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@ dark market. Buyers and sellers in the current market are deciding for themselves how they perceive the market. I’m just on observer of historic sales data and sales achieved today that have retraced generally back to 2014 highs and are today trending along a plateau after correcting. That’s were the market is at. If it’s not to your narrative then that’s up to you.

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

@ dark market. Buyers and sellers in the current market are deciding for themselves how they perceive the market. I’m just on observer of historic sales data and sales achieved today that have retraced generally back to 2014 highs and are today trending along a plateau after correcting. That’s were the market is at. If it’s not to your narrative then that’s up to you.

LCP and LSL acadata series are generally regarded as the most representative proxies for HPI.LSL has 22/33 London Boroughs falling yoy.Think 2013/14 is about the most extreme of the falls.Inner boroughs down,outer still rising I believe.

I'll post some of the data tmrw.

Edited by sancho panza

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11 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Hammond just handed Carney best part of a trillion pound for when there is a down turn.

There is divided opinion in the city on where this and how it will be used. Traders and hedge funds I speak with are more in line with Durham Borns excellent thread. Bankers think it is another prop to bail them out. I think they are wrong as there is no loner the political will to bail out the banks again, although we will never know as they will not report a bail out to the general population. This is why we need to watch what the market is telling us not what we desire. Emotion needs to be put to one side. Up until 2011 I thought we were in the cycle that Durham Born talks about and positioned myself accordingly until I challenged my opinion and decided I was wrong and went full steam into housing and have done very well that I am now mortgage free. I see another opportunity to enter the market  or a sweet spot.  If holding sterling and saving in sterling buying a flat or a house will remain a dream. For me I see owning silver and or gold , even dollars and later converting back to sterling at the sweet point as the best means of owning a property potentially mortgage free. These are just my thoughts.

But it's not £1tn is it?

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12 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Hammond just handed Carney best part of a trillion pound for when there is a down turn.

There is divided opinion in the city on where this and how it will be used. Traders and hedge funds I speak with are more in line with Durham Borns excellent thread. Bankers think it is another prop to bail them out.

Surely that amount is enough to bail out mortgage holders and those looking to buy at insane prices ... AND infrastructure/helicopter funds.

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6 minutes ago, Banned by HPC said:

Surely that amount is enough to bail out mortgage holders and those looking to buy at insane prices ... AND infrastructure/helicopter funds.

I’m not too sure. But we must not discount  your line of thinking

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