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Wight Flight

Shortage of rental property

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This is something that I couldn't raise on ToS but it does concern me.

Anecdotally, the area I am planning on moving to (Isle of Wight) seems to be entering a stage where rentals are hard to find. A bog standard three bedder seems to get snapped up as soon as it comes on the market if it is priced within a couple of hundred £ of the LHA rate.

It has got to the point where a lot of people seem to be taking to social media desperate to find a new place if their lease expires, often without success.

I think it is very likely that landlords are selling up in quite large numbers, BUT, it is not the tenants buying these properties but people that have been biding their time living at home or house sharing, as they are the ones likely to be in a better position regarding deposits etc.

If prices fall, again it will be these 'owners in waiting' that will be buying the properties, not the existing tenants. I think we could be heading for a very serious lack of available rental properties, which, without a decent brexit and removal of immigration, could cause some very serious problems.

Is anyone experiencing the same in their area? 

Edit to add I have also heard of two cases of gazumping on rentals recently - where a tenant offered over the asking price to secure the property. Which is equally concerning.

Edited by Cunning Plan

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1 hour ago, spygirl said:

 

Thats a lot for an isolated area where theres not much in the way of new arrivals.

 

It is not the new arrivals, it is the ones already here, chasing dwindling supply. I've had the same thoughts about the situation as CP. Might explain why the government are suddenly interested in longer term tenancies - basically to lock BTL in from selling. Just in the same way they were for it in the first place to clear out owner occupiers from the market by promoting BTL to house the millions that they knew they were going to let in.

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4 hours ago, onlyme said:

It is not the new arrivals, it is the ones already here, chasing dwindling supply. I've had the same thoughts about the situation as CP. Might explain why the government are suddenly interested in longer term tenancies - basically to lock BTL in from selling. Just in the same way they were for it in the first place to clear out owner occupiers from the market by promoting BTL to house the millions that they knew they were going to let in.

Ukgov didnt promote btl.

It was idiots at arla and banks.

It was convinient for browns credit boom to end all crefit booms. Anf, as he split regulation across 3 orgs, noone knew what they should be doing.

If theres deindling supply - and 220 rentals in a population of 150k says othereise - its a large number of social tentants i.e tax creditors chasing lha viable places.

Theres about 8x more rentals than 20 years ago.

Edited by spygirl

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6 hours ago, spygirl said:

Ukgov didnt promote btl.

It was idiots at arla and banks.

It was convinient for browns credit boom to end all crefit booms. Anf, as he split regulation across 3 orgs, noone knew what they should be doing.

If theres deindling supply - and 220 rentals in a population of 150k says othereise - its a large number of social tentants i.e tax creditors chasing lha viable places.

Theres about 8x more rentals than 20 years ago.

150k population should be about 50k households. About 20% of whom would be renters, so 10k renting households on the Island.

If we believe the numbers that the average tenancy is four years, that is 2,500 families looking for a place every year.

220 properties to rent doesn't seem to be massive oversupply.

But one of the biggest issues seems to be the number of landlords that won't accept housing benefit. That is a very large problem brewing.

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6 hours ago, Cunning Plan said:

150k population should be about 50k households. About 20% of whom would be renters, so 10k renting households on the Island.

If we believe the numbers that the average tenancy is four years, that is 2,500 families looking for a place every year.

220 properties to rent doesn't seem to be massive oversupply.

But one of the biggest issues seems to be the number of landlords that won't accept housing benefit. That is a very large problem brewing.

Moved rental last year (SE), so I know the frustration of looking for somewhere in conditions of what feels like tight supply. However, this ratio (220 rentals for 100k population) sounds better than where I was looking.

I guess the key question here is how much of a scramble against other prospective renters does it feel like? As you indicate, a first guess is going to come from the ratio of people looking for new rentals to the number of rentals on the market looking for tenants. Then (maybe I'm being an idiot) things get a bit murky. Let's say 2500 families look for a new place each year. If, for whatever reason (slow transaction processes, extreme fussiness), it turns out they are spending, on average, a year seriously looking (whatever "seriously" means), then you've got eleven families competing for each property, and it's going to feel nasty. If the market turnover is fast enough and their searching efficient enough that they are only spending, on average, two weeks looking, then at any one time you've got 100 families looking at those 220 houses, and it'll feel much more relaxed. If houses are being snapped up immediately after coming on to the market, that's indicating that turnover is fast, so if there are still 220 up for grabs at any one time there's a lot of supply for anyone who can act quickly.

Where I was looking, I did a lot of pre-selection on-line (even out of the very few places that were advertised), and there were a couple of viewings on the same day for the ones I visited in person. Spent 3 weekends travelling to view places.

Top line: it's not obvious to me exactly what proxy indicator one should use for whether supply is tight, since different factors chase each other. Probably best to just look at outcomes: are rental prices rising or falling? ... or, less reliably, what fraction do you make unsuccessful offers on? If you know average time for a property to be on the market, then at least you know quickly you need to get an offer in, and if you also know ratio of supply to population and rate of change of rentals, then you can guess the ratio of supply and demand.

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8 hours ago, Cunning Plan said:

150k population should be about 50k households. About 20% of whom would be renters, so 10k renting households on the Island.

If we believe the numbers that the average tenancy is four years, that is 2,500 families looking for a place every year.

220 properties to rent doesn't seem to be massive oversupply.

But one of the biggest issues seems to be the number of landlords that won't accept housing benefit. That is a very large problem brewing.

Well ....

Id guess about 30% are in social/public rentals.

RM only lists private rentals.

LL not accepting HB is another thing. This is not new - most IO BTL mortgages dont allow HB.

 

 

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1 hour ago, stokiescum said:

theres no shortage of places to rent in stoke however less are renting to the unemployed

So who do they rent to?

 

There's a slow process where the gormless Labour policy of chasing up the market for HB is being revercsed.

Now, LHA is being reduced as rent falls.

Dont let to DSS? Then risk very long voids or reduce rents.

Reduce rents? then HB falls.

Basially, social LL needs to operate on  max HB payout of400/m.

 

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2 minutes ago, spygirl said:

So who do they rent to?

 

There's a slow process where the gormless Labour policy of chasing up the market for HB is being revercsed.

Now, LHA is being reduced as rent falls.

Dont let to DSS? Then risk very long voids or reduce rents.

Reduce rents? then HB falls.

Basially, social LL needs to operate on  max HB payout of400/m.

 

at one time most would rent to the unemployed since they changed the way its paid ie they get it themselves lots of landlords simply wont rent to them,i wouldnt have a lodger has an example who didnt work.yet a guy i work with has 3 of em in his house and he lives in the atic i think he gets 75 a week each.

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Just now, stokiescum said:

at one time most would rent to the unemployed since they changed the way its paid ie they get it themselves lots of landlords simply wont rent to them,i wouldnt have a lodger has an example who didnt work.yet a guy i work with has 3 of em in his house and he lives in the atic i think he gets 75 a week each.

I know.

The universal credit is a good idea - pay to the tenant, let the social LL grasp the point of 'business risk'-

'Ah welcome to the house Mr ace. The rent is 500/m payable o nthe 6th ofthe month...

'Alright, you can trust me. My word is as good as my bond.....'

5th of month  .....

'Rent or 8 ace ... rent or 8 ace .... rent or 8 ace ....

BOgNJzPCIAAhw45.png

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6 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

at one time most would rent to the unemployed since they changed the way its paid ie they get it themselves lots of landlords simply wont rent to them,i wouldnt have a lodger has an example who didnt work.yet a guy i work with has 3 of em in his house and he lives in the atic i think he gets 75 a week each.

A big ***IF***** - if you can select your tenants then its doable.

I know a single bloke who has a big house in Scabby. He rents the rooms out to4/5  50+ blokes - divorces, lost jobs etc - mainly on beneits.

Rents at the LHA limit - so about 70/80ish/w - 400ish/m x 4/5 = ~2/k month.

His bit is seperate but hes around every day.

The blokes are OK - but he does do vetting/trial periods. Problem with benefits is that a lot of people on them are fucking scum.

As it is, he keeps it basical bu warm and safe. Ive met most of the blokes. They are fine.

These epople would have faced loalca housing or slum lord studio flats.

This way they get more room - but its shared - and dont have to put up with the scum of the earth who crop up on council shared accomodation.

 

 

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1 minute ago, spygirl said:

A big ***IF***** - if you can select your tenants then its doable.

I know a single bloke who has a big house in Scabby. He rents the rooms out to4/5  50+ blokes - divorces, lost jobs etc - mainly on beneits.

Rents at the LHA limit - so about 70/80ish/w - 400ish/m x 4/5 = ~2/k month.

His bit is seperate but hes around every day.

The blokes are OK - but he does do vetting/trial periods. Problem with benefits is that a lot of people on them are fucking scum.

As it is, he keeps it basical bu warm and safe. Ive met most of the blokes. They are fine.

These epople would have faced loalca housing or slum lord studio flats.

This way they get more room - but its shared - and dont have to put up with the scum of the earth who crop up on council shared accomodation.

 

 

my mate has anyone,the problem being most end up bringing there partners there and he works nights like me so it gets noisey,my lodger was unemployed but i let him have my car and got him a job working with me but ive known him a few years and i only charge 50.

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