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sancho panza

Big surge in down-valuations as ‘surveyors predict housing market crash’

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Spamming the PIE people.

It's got the tongues wagging over there.60 comments already.Some real bitterness in the comments.

Moveaside01

Down valuing aside, since when have CEO’s of companies that don’t make any money suddenly become industry experts? It’s like asking Countrywide for advice?

 

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/big-surge-in-down-valuations-as-surveyors-predict-housing-market-crash/

'There has been a ‘significant’ rise in down-valuations which are now running at the highest rate since the crash in 2008.

The Victoria Derbyshire Show yesterday looked at the problem, with Russell Quirk one of the contributors.

Quirk, CEO of Emoov, said that one in five of its transactions is currently being down-valued by surveyors after the sale has been agreed.

Two years ago, it was fewer than one in 20.

Quirk said it reflected surveyors predicting a crash, and that they were covering their backs.

He said: “”Surveyors are prophesying a crash. The system is built to protect them.”

Mortgage firm London and Country told the So-Called BBC show that the number of its advisers seeing down-valuations on a daily basis now exceeds those who do not.

Notably, Quirk said that the RICS did not put anyone up for the programme, although surveyor Nick Hanson of Vospers did appear in a private capacity.

Other contributors to the programme included Jonathan Hudson, of Hudson Properties. He denied agents were over-valuing properties, saying there would be no point in having properties on the books if they were not going to sell.

A couple of first-time buyers also told the programme of their experiences. They had a down-valuation of £10,000 on the first property they tried to buy, and lost out when the seller refused to drop the price.

A second property purchase was also hit by the same down-valuation but this time they borrowed £5,000 from family members to save the deal.

A home owner looking to remortgage after renovating his property told how a surveyor valued the house at £20,000 less than a local estate agent. The surveyor had not gone inside the property but had done a drive-by valuation.

Trade body UK Finance said: “Lenders have a responsibility to ensure that the value of property taken as security on mortgage loans is current and realistic.

“Although the valuation is carried out for the lender, borrowers also benefit from a realistic independent valuation as it could help them avoid paying over the odds for the property they are buying.”

After the show aired, Quirk told EYE: “Surveyors are being over-cautious and pessimistic on property values currently because they are concerned that lenders will call upon their indemnity policies for losses.

“Self-interest rather than accurate market reflection, in other words.”

He said that of the one in five deals being hit by down-valuations, some resulted in fall-throughs and others in re-negotiation to get the seller and buyer to compromise.

Comments on the So-Called BBC forum included a question about what was making lenders nervous – Brexit?

Another said: “House prices are way too high relative to earnings and the bubble must burst at some point. And that may be soon.”'

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It looks like we're at the rush for the exit stage, lenders seem to view things the same way. Some good comments indeed:

Quote

 

“CEO of Emoov, said that one in five of its transactions is currently being down-valued by surveyors after the sale has been agreed”

THEN STOP OVER-VALUING THE PROPERTIES IN THE FIRST PLACE YOU DONUT SIMPLY TO WIN THE BUSINESS.

 

 

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There has been a ‘significant’ rise in down-valuations which are now running at the highest rate since the crash in 2008.

The Victoria Derbyshire Show yesterday looked at the problem

 

No problem I can see:Jumping:

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17 hours ago, Wig said:

can you say #vileBBC on this site? 9_9

Candyman .....

Candyman ....

Candyman ....

 

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Phil-Spencer.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Candyman .....

Candyman ....

Candyman ....

 

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   |

   V

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Phil-Spencer.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

O.o:D

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On ‎24‎/‎07‎/‎2018 at 21:14, darkmarket said:

It looks like we're at the rush for the exit stage, lenders seem to view things the same way. Some good comments indeed:

“CEO of Emoov, said that one in five of its transactions is currently being down-valued by surveyors after the sale has been agreed”

THEN STOP OVER-VALUING THE PROPERTIES IN THE FIRST PLACE YOU DONUT SIMPLY TO WIN THE BUSINESS.

 

Come on you know it doesn't work like that. The owner will decide on the price he wants the agent to market his property at. He may be influenced by the agents opinion, after all who wouldn't like to sell something for more?

A buyer will agree to buy the property at a price negotiated with the seller. If the buyer needs a mortgage a lender will want to get a valuation on the property so they will send a valuer to give their opinion on the price. 

At this stage the lenders valuer may in his opinion think that a lower value than the buyer was prepared to pay is more appropriate. Usually because the valuer wants to avoid the risk of being blamed for a shortfall in the event of the borrower defaulting and the property sold in a distress sale.

Its nothing to do with the valuer having a magical insight into the value of a property. The market price is nothing more than the price a willing buyer is prepared to pay a willing seller.  The whole process of buying and selling is driven by emotion, there are no definitive formulas. The wrinkle in the housing market is because most buyers need to finance the purchase of a property then the amounts a lender is prepared to lend and the availability of credit can drive the price. At the moment lenders are becoming more cautious with their lending and it is this a major factor in a softening, or fall if you like, in prices. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Come on you know it doesn't work like that. The owner will decide on the price he wants the agent to market his property at. He may be influenced by the agents opinion, after all who wouldn't like to sell something for more?

A buyer will agree to buy the property at a price negotiated with the seller. If the buyer needs a mortgage a lender will want to get a valuation on the property so they will send a valuer to give their opinion on the price. 

At this stage the lenders valuer may in his opinion think that a lower value than the buyer was prepared to pay is more appropriate. Usually because the valuer wants to avoid the risk of being blamed for a shortfall in the event of the borrower defaulting and the property sold in a distress sale.

Its nothing to do with the valuer having a magical insight into the value of a property. The market price is nothing more than the price a willing buyer is prepared to pay a willing seller.  The whole process of buying and selling is driven by emotion, there are no definitive formulas. The wrinkle in the housing market is because most buyers need to finance the purchase of a property then the amounts a lender is prepared to lend and the availability of credit can drive the price. At the moment lenders are becoming more cautious with their lending and it is this a major factor in a softening, or fall if you like, in prices. 

 

 

I think you're agreeing that between the seller and the estate agent a high price appears, then the valuation brings them back down to earth.

I just laughed at the comment getting upper-case angry, the EA is more likely to push for a low price now anyway the music's stopped.

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51 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

I think you're agreeing that between the seller and the estate agent a high price appears, then the valuation brings them back down to earth.

I just laughed at the comment getting upper-case angry, the EA is more likely to push for a low price now anyway the music's stopped.

I have a friend who's a surveyor and he says some of the values currently being agreed between buyers/sellers are off the scale unrealistic.

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11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I have a friend who's a surveyor and he says some of the values currently being agreed between buyers/sellers are off the scale unrealistic.

Hi Sancho,

in what context ? buyer paying more or less than sellers price ?

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I never saw why surveyors were valuing properties in the first place.  After all it wasn't really a 'valuation' -- more of a 'take the average property of this size in this area -- this property  is about +/-x% away from that'...  But then they'd do the 'and the average price is, therefore...' bit themselves.  I never understood why they didn't leave that part to the mortgage company that would, after all, be taking the risk.

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12 hours ago, Mere mortal said:

Hi Sancho,

in what context ? buyer paying more or less than sellers price ?

EA's create dream price,find sucker to pay it.Sucker applies for mortgage.Surveyor checks local sale prices and looks at the house and recommends bank ask for either a much larger deposit or offers a mortgage for dream price minus 30%

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1 hour ago, dgul said:

I never saw why surveyors were valuing properties in the first place.  After all it wasn't really a 'valuation' -- more of a 'take the average property of this size in this area -- this property  is about +/-x% away from that'...  But then they'd do the 'and the average price is, therefore...' bit themselves.  I never understood why they didn't leave that part to the mortgage company that would, after all, be taking the risk.

Surveyors carry liability insurance and using them saves financial firms employing them themselves.

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3 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Surveyors carry liability insurance and using them saves financial firms employing them themselves.

Stupid thing is the valuation at the time is likely correct -- the problem comes because the householder and ultimately the mortgagor hold a long term liability that can't be fixed by the insurance.

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On 24/07/2018 at 14:49, sancho panza said:

A second property purchase was also hit by the same down-valuation but this time they borrowed £5,000 from family members to save the deal.

 

Didn't TR go to jail for doing that?

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3 minutes ago, UmBongo said:

I think we may see some more wrecks come up for sale as vendors suddenly realise that the housing market has ran out of steam and has reached it's peak:

A fairly substantial renovation project - 3 bedroomed house

A nice price drop on this £82k flat (sold for £132k in 2006)

Ample supply of timber in pic 7 - may come in useful

 

 

Im seeing a hell of a lot fo 2 bed btl types places coming on the market, absolute shit thats still 20-30% above 2014 bubble prices but there is so much of it on the market prices have to drop soon.

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4 minutes ago, Banned said:

Im seeing a hell of a lot fo 2 bed btl types places coming on the market, absolute shit thats still 20-30% above 2014 bubble prices but there is so much of it on the market prices have to drop soon.

Here's hoping for the price drops too! I just saw a typical BTL type place (2 bedroomed flat with magnolia walls) that piqued my interest. It sold for £30k in 1995, went on yesterday at 'offers in excess of £125k' O.o

What sort of level do you think house prices need to come down to? Around what they sold for in 2003 perhaps? It would be helpful to guage what is a sensible level. :)

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12 minutes ago, UmBongo said:

Here's hoping for the price drops too! I just saw a typical BTL type place (2 bedroomed flat with magnolia walls) that piqued my interest. It sold for £30k in 1995, went on yesterday at 'offers in excess of £125k' O.o

What sort of level do you think house prices need to come down to? Around what they sold for in 2003 perhaps? It would be helpful to guage what is a sensible level. :)

Im seeing places that sold for 180k in 2007 on the market for 280k. So i have no idea what'd be acceptable ... as surely to god 2007 prices cant be deemed normal as wages have barely gone up, and we've had a decade of stagflation.

I think a change of leadership and tightening the screws on BTL buying more places could do it ... those fuckers are still out there buying up all sorts of crap.

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Price Change History
06/09/2018 Price Changed: £700,000 £675,000
20/06/2018 Price Changed: £750,000 £700,000
22/05/2018 Initial entry found.
 
 
Price Change History
06/09/2018 Price Changed: £795,000 £745,000
24/06/2018 Initial entry found.
 
Price Change History
06/09/2018 Price Changed: £1,100,000 £1,050,000
17/07/2018 Initial entry found.
Price Change History
05/09/2018 Price Changed: £1,100,000 £1,050,000
19/07/2018 Price Changed: £1,200,000 £1,100,000
14/10/2017 Initial entry found.
 
 
Price Change History
05/09/2018 Price Changed: £1,750,000 £1,600,000
23/06/2018 Price Changed: £1,950,000 £1,750,000
30/04/2018 Initial entry found.
Price Change History
05/09/2018 Price Changed: £1,950,000 £1,750,000
05/04/2018 Initial entry found.
Edited by sancho panza

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