By Frank Hovis
I know that sand is a limited resource and that dredging it from the sand banks in the Bristol Channel has been controlled for at least fifty years; though it was news that peopel were now stealing it from rivers:
The real kicker for me is however the closing line:
Current population is 7.6bn so that's adding 25%.
As everyone is well aware oil is neccessary for intensive agriculture; and it's not getting more efficient - quite the reverse:
So now we turn to oil reserves. These are "proven" reserves which it is worth extracting at the moment. If the price goes up more will become worth extracting but it will take more energy to do so; hence the returns diminish.
DIviding proven reserves by currnet levels of pumping gives 64 years of reserves for the top 17 countries but within that you have a wide variability and there are six under 25 years; including the US and Russia. Fracking will of course extend this further. However within that 64 years is dubious data; I have posted before about how Saudi is fabricating its reserves and probably has less than twenty years pumping left whereas this is claiming 81 and they, with Russia and the US, are the big three producers.
Summary of Proven Reserve Data as of 2012 — Country Reserves
109 bbl Reserves
109 m3 Production
103 bbl/d Production
103 m3/d Reserve/ Production Ratio1
years 1 Venezuela 296.50 47.140 2.1 330 387 2 Saudi Arabia 265.40 42.195 8.9 1,410 81 3 Canada 175.00 27.823 2.7 430 178 4 Iran 151.20 24.039 4.1 650 101 5 Iraq 143.10 22.751 3.4 540 163 6 Kuwait 101.50 16.137 2.3 370 121 7 United Arab Emirates 97.80 15.549 2.4 380 156 8 Russia 80.00 12.719 10.0 1,590 22 9 Libya 47.00 7.472 1.7 270 76 10 Nigeria 37.00 5.883 2.5 400 41 11 Kazakhstan 30.00 4.770 1.5 240 55 12 Qatar 25.41 4.040 1.1 170 63 13 China 25.40 4.038 4.1 650 15 14 United States 25.00 3.975 7.0 1,110 10 15 Angola 13.50 2.146 1.9 300 19 16 Algeria 13.42 2.134 1.7 270 22 17 Brazil 13.20 2.099 2.1 330 17 Total of top seventeen reserves 1,540.43 244.909 59.5 9,460 64 Notes: 1 Reserve to Production ratio (in years), calculated as reserves / annual production. (from above)
Now quarter that Saudi reserve figure down to a level that will last a more likely twenty years and you're taking 200 billion barrels off the bottom line, taking that 64 down to 56 years.
Then look again at that projected population increase of 25% and what has happened in China with regards to increased consumption and car use. That 56 begins to look like 40 years and well before that 40 years is reached the price of oil will start attracting scarcity value; $200 oil, what about $500 or $1,000? Petrol at £50 a gallon.
The world's biggest source of near-free energy will be turning off the taps in (some of our) lifetimes; gas and coal will fill some of the gap for a few decades but then that's it; party over and with it the party food.
By Frank Hovis
The reserve figures are secret these days, especially with the partial sale of Aramco coming up, and are commonly believed to be overstated as they're not going down: new finds magically replace extracted oil.
But there have been no new big finds since the 1970s. So that seems "unlikely".
Current claimed reserves are roughly at the level of 1989 - 260bn barrels - but that was a huge hike upon the 1987 figure of 170bn of easily recoverable oil and suggests the inclusion of probable / possible reserves.
So going back to that 1987 figure as the last undisputed figure and bearing in mind no big new finds since start deducting the c. 10m barrels a day production, 3.65bn per year.
Thirty years' extraction to 2017 is 109.5bn of that 1987 reserve. The remaining 60.5bn will last a mere 16.5 years which isn't very long at all.
Now there will be unders and overs: improved extraction techniques Vs sea water contamination of fields from previous extraction techniques which will blur this figure.
So that 16.5 may be 20 years or it may be 15. Either way it's not long.
Then it's back to being goat herders and no more funding the export of islam and islamic terrorism.
Not long now
Recently Browsing 0 members
No registered users viewing this page.