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swiss_democracy_for_all

What level of recession is necessary to fully extricate the UK from the unsustainable economic model put in place by successive recent governments?

What level of recession is necessary to fully extricate the UK from the unsustainable economic model put in place by successive recent governments?  

25 members have voted

  1. 1. What level of recession is necessary to extricate the UK from the unsustainable economic model put in place by successive recent governments?

    • No Recession necessary
      2
    • Small recession say1-2% of GDP small rise in unemployment
      1
    • Medium recession say 3-4% of GDP and unemployment up to 8%
      0
    • Large recession say 5-10% of GDP and unemployment >10%
      7
    • Depression Greek-style, 10-20% of GDP and unemployment >20%
      15


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How would that help without inflation or a debt reset?

Or are you simply talking about house prices?

 

Edited by BigV

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Just now, BigV said:

How would that help without inflation or a debt reset?

 

That's kind of all part of it, I just didn't want to make a massive boring long list of all the unpleasant things that are necessary. To my mind if you pump the economy full of funny money for 20 years, the only way back to sustainability is going to involve destitute masses and vast numbers of bankruptcies  soup kitchens on street corners, riots, the lot. 

For those most concerned about immigration - under these circs they really would all go home!

 

 

 

Just now, Cunning Plan said:

Are we talking about the government friend total GDP or the more useful GDP per head?
 

The one that they use for calculating deficits and debt ratios, so not the one you(and I) would like.....

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I'm not sure that anyone will decide the timing or extent of the coming crash.  Yes, they have managed to pull it off for now but only through crazy schemes like massive debt, both public and private, and through mass immigration of largely unemployable people. 

It is not sustainable .  When it goes, it be an unforeseen event.  It will panic investors who will all scramble for the exits at the same time.  1030s rerun here we come.  

Sadly, tptb will have hedged themselves somehow and it will be us poor saps once again carrying the can.  

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2 minutes ago, One percent said:

I'm not sure that anyone will decide the timing or extent of the coming crash.  Yes, they have managed to pull it off for now but only through crazy schemes like massive debt, both public and private, and through mass immigration of largely unemployable people. 

It is not sustainable .  When it goes, it be an unforeseen event.  It will panic investors who will all scramble for the exits at the same time.  1030s rerun here we come.  

Sadly, tptb will have hedged themselves somehow and it will be us poor saps once again carrying the can.  

They could decide to trigger it, by implementing all the policies necessary and sticking to them as it all tanked when the air came out of the balloon, but boy, you'd need some courage and a means of avoiding assassination.

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They are telling the people what they want to hear IMO( hope i`m wrong) 

This is a dangerous game if you ask me,which is likely to result in the end of team blue  for a very long time if they don`t live up to their promises ...what comes after that may not be pretty  

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Just now, Long time lurking said:

They are telling the people what they want to hear IMO( hope i`m wrong) 

This is a dangerous game if you ask me,which is likely to result in the end of team blue  for a very long time if they don`t live up to their promises ...what comes after that may not be pretty  

People get the politicians they deserve, maybe?

If I was leader of the blues and campaigned on a plan to implement all the necessary policies while truthfully alerting the people to what I thought it would probably involve, how many votes would I get?

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2 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

They are telling the people what they want to hear IMO( hope i`m wrong) 

This is a dangerous game if you ask me,which is likely to result in the end of team blue  for a very long time if they don`t live up to their promises ...what comes after that may not be pretty  

Interesting part of the Tory manifesto is that it seems as if they have ruled out any transitional phase...Mrs May expects to have a unique full blown FTA in 18 months time...

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3 minutes ago, swissy_fit said:

They could decide to trigger it, by implementing all the policies necessary and sticking to them as it all tanked when the air came out of the balloon, but boy, you'd need some courage and a means of avoiding assassination.

They could but the evidence is that they would rather play pass the parcel with it.  This is a mess 30 years in the making.  If they don't, then at some point the decision will be taken out of their hands and they will be left to stand and watch in wonder as the whole thing blows up on their particular watch.

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1 minute ago, swissy_fit said:

People get the politicians they deserve, maybe?

If I was leader of the blues and campaigned on a plan to implement all the necessary policies while truthfully alerting the people to what I thought it would probably involve, how many votes would I get?

Exactly ,and the flip side of what i said is this 

5 minutes ago, swissy_fit said:

They could decide to trigger it, by implementing all the policies necessary and sticking to them as it all tanked when the air came out of the balloon, but boy, you'd need some courage and a means of avoiding assassination.

Guillotine or noose 

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1 minute ago, Dave Beans said:

Interesting part of the Tory manifesto is that it seems as if they have ruled out any transitional phase...Mrs May expects to have a unique full blown FTA in 18 months time...

There isn't going to be an agreement and she knows this. The EU don't negotiate with recalcitrant countries, they aggressively dictate terms, which I assume she will not accept.

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On the basis that you use the words "fully extricate" then I'm going for total collapse so significant that it's not covered by any of your options. Anything less will simply lead to an eventual resumption of the same practices that got us here in the first place. It's the only end game, anything less will just be a blip along the way.

I just don't know when it will happen - maybe decades, maybe next month.

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3 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Interesting part of the Tory manifesto is that it seems as if they have ruled out any transitional phase...Mrs May expects to have a unique full blown FTA in 18 months time...

Do anyone outside her circle "realy" know what she has or has not ruled out ? 

Like is said earlier they are telling people what they wan`t to hear IMO, they have done it once before will they get away with it a second time ? five years until we find out

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Just now, Long time lurking said:

Do anyone outside her circle "realy" know what she has or has not ruled out ? 

Like is said earlier they are telling people what they wan`t to hear IMO, they have done it once before will they get away with it a second time ? five years until we find out

Only once?

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Just now, Long time lurking said:

Do anyone outside her circle "realy" know what she has or has not ruled out ? 

Like is said earlier they are telling people what they wan`t to hear IMO, they have done it once before will they get away with it a second time ? five years until we find out

That's it...It depends now if shes attempting to hoover up UKIP votes now, then change tack after the election.  For Brexit anyway, I think its going to be shorter that five years..Probably the next six months will define her Presidency..

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18 minutes ago, One percent said:

Only once?

Well it should of been "last time around" 

IMO this election is like no other ,it`s framed by a large part of the electorate by BREXIT and that`s all about FOM for the majority of them  team blue are dancing to that tune if they back track there will be real anger

The only glimmer of hope i have is the fact she has explicitly said she would not remove foreign students from the immigration figures ....caveat are we going to have a university of turnip picking in Norfolk  

 

Edited by Long time lurking

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It's funny how there is absolutely no mention of the monetary system and its inevitable collapse by any mainstream media source or political figures. It's a case of total ignorance by the many and heads in sand for the rest.

The only possible way out is some sort of complicated reset, redistribution and the hope that it doesn't result in too much violence. What are the odds on that? O.o

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2 hours ago, swissy_fit said:

There isn't going to be an agreement and she knows this. The EU don't negotiate with recalcitrant countries, they aggressively dictate terms, which I assume she will not accept.

She's probably planning to take us into EFTA. First as a temporary measure when there's no deal, and then temporary becomes forever 

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