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sancho panza

House prices could fall by a third if there is a no deal Brexit, warns Bank of England

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Instead of worrying about Brexit he should get the house in order and get the gubbermint to

1) stop banks leveraging up to the point they need taxpayer hand outs to survive

2) separate retail/investment banking a la Glass Steagall.

3) find an inflation measure that actually measures the cost of living ie includes the cost of housing

4) find a measure of national output that doesn't include made up figures like 'imputed rents' (currently 12% UK GDP)

5) stop the Westminster class leveraging up and giving our kids the rather clunky 300% national debt to GDP bill (that's what you get when you include the off balance sheet obligations and stop including made up figures in your GDP calcs)

6) use stress tests that actually place some stress on the system-6% IR's it ain't.

 

 

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/house-prices-could-fall-by-a-third-if-there-is-a-no-deal-brexit-warns-bank-of-england/

'The Governor of the Bank of England has warned that in the event of a no deal Brexit, property prices could plummet by a third.

Mark Carney told the Today programme on Friday that the Bank of England had run recent stress tests in the scenario of a no deal Brexit.

As well as house price falls, interest rates would rise to 4% and unemployment would go up to 4% in a full-scale recession.

Asked whether a no deal Brexit would be a disaster, Carney said it would be very undesirable.

His warning led to a fall in the value of the pound.'

Edited by sancho panza

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One of the reasons i voted to leave was the fact i was promised a HPC and higher interest rates by these lying cunts.

I expect a no deal will see more printing of sorts, more TFS esq schemes and dropping interest rates, so quite the opposite to a HPC will happen.

Besides dropping by a third will mean they are at a similar level to when this incompetent wanker sadly came to the country and 2013 prices were at mega bubble levels.

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1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

3) find an inflation measure that actually measures the cost of living ie includes the cost of housing

 

My worry is they will start using the price of houses when the price starts falling ... as a reason to keep rates lower.

I am seeing a lot of houses get updated  on RM today at reduced prices ... still fucken bonkers prices that arent even worth biding on but its a start.

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Utility companies like telecoms, energy and water took money away from the government's "buy votes" pot, so they privatised them without creating a market, converting State monopolies to private ones, and then set up almost powerless 'regulators' so as to pretend that the government was on the side of the people;

House prices startes to fall, so they printed more money and gave it to the banks;

Food prices rose steadily year after year, so they fiddled the inflation measure in favour of discretionary purchases;

Energy prices soared, so they printed more money and gave it to the people to give to foreign governments;

There weren't enough people paying in, so they imported millions of low-waged people so as to manage GDP growth through population growth.

Those "ungrateful" people then voted to leave the EU and to control immigration.

And had to be reminded that the good times might end.

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How does this compute with the Mansion house speech and the governbankment handing over £1.2bn now and up to £5bn that the BoE can leverage 150x up to £750bn lending? A 0.68% fall in any asset means it's in the red. What leverage were Northen Rock using before they went bust?

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Where was the Bank of England when governments were introducing policies that led to the 'price of something you actually need and takes up a massive proportion of salary' doubled?  

Why are they worried about 'price of something you actually need and takes up a massive proportion of salary' going down -- surely a good thing.

Why aren't they apologising about their historical mistreatment of the interest rate environment, by focusing on the headline inflation figure rather than trying to separate out the effects of imported inflation (which they can't do anything about, other than through influencing exchange rates) and home-produced inflation (which they could but which was masked by massive deflation in imported goods), and asset price inflation (that they've steadfastly refused to worry about*).

[* while prices were going up.]

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Only a third? That's a shame. So project fear used the house prices falling before the ref. I wonder if this time, it's because they know house prices will likely fall by a third because of what's already baked in. Now they are just preparing the gen pop with an easy reason/excuse? Easier to blame us plebs for choosing Brexit than own up/explain the real reasons.

 

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It should be pointed out that Carney was simply referring to the Bank of England stress tests which tested such a scenario for the tests in 2017.

I think they’re understating how much houses could fall, in a severe recession. A lot more than by a third.

 

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2017/march/2017-stress-test-scenarios-explained

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3 hours ago, Admiral Pepe said:

Only a third? That's a shame. So project fear used the house prices falling before the ref. I wonder if this time, it's because they know house prices will likely fall by a third because of what's already baked in. Now they are just preparing the gen pop with an easy reason/excuse? Easier to blame us plebs for choosing Brexit than own up/explain the real reasons.

 

It is 'a third' because that's the sweet-spot that's at the low end of completely horrific but a smidgen higher than completely unbelievable la-la-la I'm not listening for property investors.

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10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Instead of worrying about Brexit he should get the house in order and get the gubbermint to

1) stop banks leveraging up to the point they need taxpayer hand outs to survive

2) separate retail/investment banking a la Glass Steagall.

3) find an inflation measure that actually measures the cost of living ie includes the cost of housing

4) find a measure of national output that doesn't include made up figures like 'imputed rents' (currently 12% UK GDP)

5) stop the Westminster class leveraging up and giving our kids the rather clunky 300% national debt to GDP bill (that's what you get when you include the off balance sheet obligations and stop including made up figures in your GDP calcs)

6) use stress tests that actually place some stress on the system-6% IR's it ain't.

 

 

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/house-prices-could-fall-by-a-third-if-there-is-a-no-deal-brexit-warns-bank-of-england/

'The Governor of the Bank of England has warned that in the event of a no deal Brexit, property prices could plummet by a third.

Mark Carney told the Today programme on Friday that the Bank of England had run recent stress tests in the scenario of a no deal Brexit.

As well as house price falls, interest rates would rise to 4% and unemployment would go up to 4% in a full-scale recession.

Asked whether a no deal Brexit would be a disaster, Carney said it would be very undesirable.

His warning led to a fall in the value of the pound.'

if ours go up so will theres ,i doubt spain,greece and italy will be chuffed what with there unemployment rates

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3 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Attacking the high house price and lending issues on multiple fronts today:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44992836

Shock horror - issues with home equity release.

 

From the article "At least one firm assumes house prices will rise 4.25% a year. If they don't, firms face losses - or even bailouts."

Why is that a given these days? Makes my blood boil

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58 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

 

From the article "At least one firm assumes house prices will rise 4.25% a year. If they don't, firms face losses - or even bailouts."

Why is that a given these days? Makes my blood boil

Yes, my normally barely detectable blood pressure rose dramatically throughout the whole article.

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10 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Attacking the high house price and lending issues on multiple fronts today:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44992836

Shock horror - issues with home equity release.

That's a thinly disguised equity release advert, making out it's so great a deal for the people that do it, the financial sector could make huge losses.

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If the So-Called BBC is dishing out financial advice, which it does with its puff programming then at some point they should be subjected to a class action and sued out of existence.

Edited by Chewing Grass

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On 06/08/2018 at 18:40, Castlevania said:

It should be pointed out that Carney was simply referring to the Bank of England stress tests which tested such a scenario for the tests in 2017.

I think they’re understating how much houses could fall, in a severe recession. A lot more than by a third.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2017/march/2017-stress-test-scenarios-explained

According to Investopedia we have really been in a recession since 2007.

'Interest rates rarely increase during a recession. Actually, the opposite tends to happen; as the economy contracts, interest rates fall in tandem.'

So we are fucked anyway as we have had our heads in a big bucket of builders sand for the last 10 years or more.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/102015/do-interest-rates-increase-during-recession.asp

 

 

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1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

If the So-Called BBC is dishing out financial advice, which it does with its puff programming then at some point they should be subjected to a class action and sued out of existence.

just bang the license fees up to pay for the case costs.. call it "auntie's pleb tax" or somesuch

Edited by Wig

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7 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

If the So-Called BBC is dishing out financial advice, which it does with its puff programming then at some point they should be subjected to a class action and sued out of existence.

It’s a boomer organisation, holding on to dear life chugging out liberal, boomer-stroking propaganda yet claims to be impartial. The younger generation will see to the demise of it in years to come.

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Food / energy / whatever necessities of life prices to fall = good

Housing costs to fall also = good (except for landlords and down sizing boomers hoping to profit from the current historically abnormal economic circumstances)

Still amazes me how even now people getting screwed over by the current normal, such as those trapped in interest only mortgages or renters, can't get their heads around this despite handing over a large proportion of their income for housing. Another plus for brexit even if we are too stupid to understand it :S

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7 hours ago, Sideysid said:

It’s a boomer organisation, holding on to dear life chugging out liberal, boomer-stroking propaganda yet claims to be impartial. The younger generation will see to the demise of it in years to come.

The reason it managed to continue with the status quo last time the licence issue came up was because Cameron and the neoliberals were needing a propaganda channel to push their side of the argument in the referendum. 

Close to £200 a year for that shite is surreal, we need FOx News esq channels to balance the globalist/neoliberal agenda of C4, BBC and Sky

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8 hours ago, Sideysid said:

It’s a boomer organisation, holding on to dear life chugging out liberal, boomer-stroking propaganda yet claims to be impartial. The younger generation will see to the demise of it in years to come.

Us young'uns will fix all the problems created and abetted by the boomers.

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16 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

According to Investopedia we have really been in a recession since 2007.

'Interest rates rarely increase during a recession. Actually, the opposite tends to happen; as the economy contracts, interest rates fall in tandem.'

So we are fucked anyway as we have had our heads in a big bucket of builders sand for the last 10 years or more.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/102015/do-interest-rates-increase-during-recession.asp

 

 

In terms of per capita incomes, and let's be frank, to measure wealth, we should be dividing total income by the number dependent on it,then we likely haven't left recession.

GDP figures should be taken lightly anyway,.

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