House prices could fall by a third if there is a no deal Brexit, warns Bank of England

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

I've posted this before I think.Fascinating to read.

They averaged 4.8x earnings from 1971 – 2000, but have since averaged 8.7x and are currently 11.8x

Based on average London earnings of £39.5k, a return to the 4.8x ratio would leave prices at £190k

That compares with actual average prices of £468k today

Joint income mortgages?

39.5 x 2 x 4.8 = 379.2

The only hope for £190k is to lower the 4.8x back to 3x Main plus 1x Second incomes.

 

[MrXxx]

8 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Joint income mortgages?

39.5 x 2 x 4.8 = 379.2

The only hope for £190k is to lower the 4.8x back to 3x Main plus 1x Second incomes.

 

Exact point I have made elsewhere, but will it happen?...I think it is unlikely as people have now accepted this as the norm, in the same way as interest rates and prices for property...I do hope I am wrong though as I would like to buy at some stage but WILL NOT pay a lifetimes earnings for a pile of bricks!

[Band]

9 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Joint income mortgages?

39.5 x 2 x 4.8 = 379.2

The only hope for £190k is to lower the 4.8x back to 3x Main plus 1x Second incomes.

 

A couple both earning 40k is not the norm..

[spunko]

Has there ever been a survey or study done to find out the true build cost of a standard new-build slavebox, including labour, materials, taxes etc - versus the asking price? I know that most developers openly advertise a 20% markup but given today's asking prices this must surely be higher now. EG: https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-74901530.html

If the housebuilder sells this for -10% under the asking price, less a further 20% markup, this seems to suggest a build cost including land of £504k... ! Hmm...

Given that "Outer London" is bucking the trend due to H2B (which IIRC is for new-builds only) I wonder if they will sink back down to true cost+20% markup and how far down they need to go to get there.  Doubt it'll be the end of slaveboxification of the SE regardless, sadly.

[Option5]

Just now, spunko2010 said:

Has there ever been a survey or study done to find out the true build cost of a standard new-build slavebox, including labour, materials, taxes etc - versus the asking price? I know that most developers openly advertise a 20% markup but given today's asking prices this must surely be higher now.

Given that "Outer London" is bucking the trend due to H2B (which IIRC is for new-builds only) I wonder if they will sink back down to true cost+20% markup and how far down they need to go to get there.  Doubt it'll be the end of slaveboxification of the SE regardless, sadly.

The cost of building the boxes doesn't vary much across the country, the main variables are the cost of the land and the sums that have to be spent satisfying the local council demands.

It used to be 30% land, 30% build, 10% other costs and 30% mark up which after marketing, head office cost etc left a target profit of approx 20%.

[Band]

15 minutes ago, spunko2010 said:

Has there ever been a survey or study done to find out the true build cost of a standard new-build slavebox, including labour, materials, taxes etc - versus the asking price? I know that most developers openly advertise a 20% markup but given today's asking prices this must surely be higher now. EG: https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-74901530.html

If the housebuilder sells this for -10% under the asking price, less a further 20% markup, this seems to suggest a build cost including land of £504k... ! Hmm...

Given that "Outer London" is bucking the trend due to H2B (which IIRC is for new-builds only) I wonder if they will sink back down to true cost+20% markup and how far down they need to go to get there.  Doubt it'll be the end of slaveboxification of the SE regardless, sadly.

In Hull 3 bed detached new builds cost 135k. So far less than 100k to build presuming the land wasnt free and they make a profit.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/new-homes-for-sale/property-54071418.html

 

[spunko]

Just now, Banned said:

In Hull 3 bed detached new builds cost 135k. So far less than 100k to build presuming the land wasnt free and they make a profit.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/new-homes-for-sale/property-54071418.html

 

Admittedly there is some differences between the house you posted and the one I did, I suspect the one I posted in Hull would be mid 200s then. In terms of cost of land, IIRC and outside of Central London, generally around £1m an acre is the "going rate" for a land with full PP.

[Band]

Just now, spunko2010 said:

Admittedly there is some differences between the house you posted and the one I did, I suspect the one I posted in Hull would be mid 200s then. In terms of cost of land, IIRC and outside of Central London, generally around £1m an acre is the "going rate" for a land with full PP.

Theyll put 20 60m2 houses an an acre down south. Cram them in best they can.

Ive been looking for a plot for 100k for years now and there is sweet fa.

[Wig]

9 hours ago, spunko2010 said:

Has there ever been a survey or study done to find out the true build cost of a standard new-build slavebox, including labour, materials, taxes etc - versus the asking price? I know that most developers openly advertise a 20% markup but given today's asking prices this must surely be higher now. EG: https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-74901530.html

If the housebuilder sells this for -10% under the asking price, less a further 20% markup, this seems to suggest a build cost including land of £504k... ! Hmm...

Given that "Outer London" is bucking the trend due to H2B (which IIRC is for new-builds only) I wonder if they will sink back down to true cost+20% markup and how far down they need to go to get there.  Doubt it'll be the end of slaveboxification of the SE regardless, sadly.

I had a similar conversation with the missus this afternoon except it was about cars not houses.

Driving past a Hyundai garage or similar seeing rows and rows of these brand new plastic looking cars whilst the road is already full of brand new plastic looking cars it  suddenly dawned on me these things probably cost a few hundred quid each to make when you take into account the scale of these fcking car factories now and the fact these things are probably 90%+ made from cheap plastic and recycled tin cans or whatever

 

plus the fact there is highly likely a brand new car graveyard out there somewhere with all these brand new pieces of junk sat there never to be driven.

 

And when I say conversation I mean I made the observation and she kind of paused and went “uh huh” 

[Noallegiance]

44 minutes ago, Wig said:

I had a similar conversation with the missus this afternoon except it was about cars not houses.

Driving past a Hyundai garage or similar seeing rows and rows of these brand new plastic looking cars whilst the road is already full of brand new plastic looking cars it  suddenly dawned on me these things probably cost a few hundred quid each to make when you take into account the scale of these fcking car factories now and the fact these things are probably 90%+ made from cheap plastic and recycled tin cans or whatever

 

plus the fact there is highly likely a brand new car graveyard out there somewhere with all these brand new pieces of junk sat there never to be driven.

 

And when I say conversation I mean I made the observation and she kind of paused and went “uh huh” 

[PatronizingGit]

Ebbed and flowed, but historically, between 1972 and 1997, London house prices were only 120% of the UK average...not the 200-300% seen since then. 

And I bet the 'average' London house has got a lot smaller since then, to boot. Tens of thousands of decent family terraces and semis cut up into 4 or 6 bedsits. 

[sleepwello'nights]

On ‎09‎/‎08‎/‎2018 at 09:54, spunko2010 said:

Has there ever been a survey or study done to find out the true build cost of a standard new-build slavebox, including labour, materials, taxes etc - versus the asking price? I know that most developers openly advertise a 20% markup but given today's asking prices this must surely be higher now. EG: https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-74901530.html

If the housebuilder sells this for -10% under the asking price, less a further 20% markup, this seems to suggest a build cost including land of £504k... ! Hmm...

 

Admittedly this didn't start from a greenfield site, but I've just worked out with my son the cost per sq ft of the bungalow he's extended and enlarged into a two storey house. It comes out at £86 sq ft. There were no large costs for services which were already there, electricity and gas. Drainage was changed from a sceptic tank to mains drainage, £2k. There were also demolition costs, all that was left of the original structure were two walls, most of the foundation and floor. Obviously this excludes the cost of purchasing the original property. It wasn't much more than we would have had to pay for a smaller plot, if we could find one.

Still equates to my back of a cigarette calculations of £100 sq ft or £1000 sq metre.

If you're really that interested the case studies in the self build magazines usually include build cost. I haven't looked at any for some time.