LSL Acadata July: -0.2% MoM, 1.6% YoY...5th month of falls.

[sancho panza]

Report says transactions holding up.London continuing down,(21/33 Boroughs falling YoY) on faling transactions -7% YoY, North East + West Mids up 2.95 and 3.3% respectively. 77/108 Unitary areas rising.

Acadata uses all sales including cash.

 

 

From the report.

 

'Flat prices are largely down to slower activity. In July, there was an estimated 75,000 transactions: 2% down on June and
6% lower than the seasonal trend. Transactions in the first seven months of 2018 are estimated to be 4% below the same
period in 2017.

The annual rate of house price growth of 1.6% is below inflation, meaning that we are seeing a modest real-term decline in
prices in many areas. Moreover, while there’s still some variation in the rate of growth between regions – from 3.3% in the
West Midlands to 0.5% in the South East and East – the range is narrower than at almost any time since our records began
in 2000.

The average price of a property In London now stands at £625,529 at the end of June with prices falling in almost two
thirds (21 out of 33) of the city’s boroughs on an annual basis.
The biggest drops on an annual basis have been seen in the City of London, down 19.4% (albeit on a small number of
transactions), Hammersmith and Fulham, and Southwark, both down 11.7%. In both Westminster and Hammersmith and
Fulham, sales of new builds in previous months or years can explain much of the swing in prices.

London also saw the number of sales in the second quarter fall by 7% on last year, and it remains a mixed picture.
Of note are prices in the West Midlands which are up 3.3% on the year, led by strong performance in Warwickshire, up
6.3% annually, and Herefordshire, up 4.8%.
In addition the North East saw prices rise by 2.9% over the year, with Darlington up 7.5%. It was one of 6 unitary authorities
to set a new peak in May, too, with others including Merseyside (up 2.5% annually) in the North West, Bournemouth
(4.6%) in the South West, and Caerphilly (3.4%) and Monmouthshire (up 10.9% annually) in Wales.

Overall, however, 77 out of 108 unitary authority areas (71%) are still recording price rises over the year. On a monthly
basis, meanwhile, June 2018 saw prices fall in 69 of the 108 unitary authority areas, but this is down from 73 in May.
As well as West Berkshire, Monmouthshire in Wales has also seen strong growth, up 10.9% annually, despite already being
Wales’ most expensive local authority area by average house price (£283,144 against a Welsh average of £177,056).
At the other end of the scale, on an annual basis, the authority with the largest reduction in prices is Halton, in the North
West, which includes the towns of Runcorn and Widnes. Prices were down 6.1% annually, largely due to an absence of the
new build properties that helped boost prices last year.

Overall, however, 77 out of 108 unitary authority areas (71%) are still recording price rises over the year. On a monthly
basis, meanwhile, June 2018 saw prices fall in 69 of the 108 unitary authority areas, but this is down from 73 in May.
As well as West Berkshire, Monmouthshire in Wales has also seen strong growth, up 10.9% annually, despite already being
Wales’ most expensive local authority area by average house price (£283,144 against a Welsh average of £177,056).
At the other end of the scale, on an annual basis, the authority with the largest reduction in prices is Halton, in the North
West, which includes the towns of Runcorn and Widnes. Prices were down 6.1% annually, largely due to an absence of the
new build properties that helped boost prices last year.

NB: The LSL/Acadata house price index incorporates all transactions, including those made with cash.
For a more detailed market analysis by Acadata, see page 3.

Table 1. Average House Prices in England & Wales for the period July 2017 – July 2018 link to source Excel
House Price Index Monthly Change % Annual Change %
July 2017 £297,561 294.7          -0.1        4.7
August 2017 £297,887 294.7     0.1        4.5
September 2017 £299,787 295 0.6         4.5
October 2017 £301,321 294.3    0.5        4.0
November 2017 £302,730 293.2 0.5       3.9
December 2017 £304,883 292  0.7         3.8
January 2018 £307,335 294.4  0.8           3.8
February 2018 £308,814 295    0.5           3.7
March 2018 £308,060 295.1    -0.2            2.9
April 2018 £306,132 293.3       -0.6             2.3
May 2018 £304,447 291.7       -0.6             1.8
June 2018 £302,976 290.2      -0.5             1.7
July 2018 £302,251 289.5        -0.2             1.6

[sancho panza]

Loved the following comment from the Chairman of Acadata:

 

'Peter Williams, Chairman of Acadata and John Tindale, Acadata housing analyst comment:
House Prices July 2018
All the evidence suggests that house prices are stabilising. The annual rate of house price growth now stands at 1.6%
when including London and the South East, or at 1.2% when excluding these two areas. '