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spygirl

Peak UK Economy

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2 minutes ago, One percent said:

I’m calling bollox on the statistics. 

Bollox. 

The stats are correct - record number of people working.

Only problem is they are only doing 16h/w and being paid ~1.5k to do pointless, wealth destroying jobs.

And 5m of the workers are subbed EUers also on tax credits.

 

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13 minutes ago, spygirl said:

The stats are correct - record number of people working.

Only problem is they are only doing 16h/w and being paid ~1.5k to do pointless, wealth destroying jobs.

And 5m of the workers are subbed EUers also on tax credits.

 

Exactly. It’s not productive work that is of benefit to the country. They all need to be subbed through the bennie system. Ergo, it’s not work as we know it. It’s a way of massaging the stats. 

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3 minutes ago, One percent said:

Exactly. It’s not productive work that is of benefit to the country. They all need to be subbed through the bennie system. Ergo, it’s not work as we know it. It’s a way of massaging the stats. 

The way to classify it correctly.

Is how many people are working with only a DLA sub.

Then look at number of people not actually working, signed off.

And the number of people either public sectpr or getting all their money from UKGOV.

The number of people working in the private sector is seriously tiny.

UK is in big shit and has been since 2004ish.

 

 

 

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They could reduce unemployment to zero if they recategorised the unemployed as employed.  They've nearly done that as it is.

Then never mind 1975 they could say it's the best since records began.  I'm sure that's their end game for Britain.

Edited by twocents

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20 minutes ago, spygirl said:

The stats are correct - record number of people working.

Only problem is they are only doing 16h/w and being paid ~1.5k to do pointless, wealth destroying jobs.

And 5m of the workers are subbed EUers also on tax credits.

 

 

+the self employed/gig economy. 

millions of cake decorators making a grand or so a year being 'employed' and getting several grand in tax credits. 

self-employment-levels.jpg

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Screen-shot-2013-12-02-at-15.22.08.png

http://www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/no-of-self-employmed-workers.jpg

Charts a few years out of date, cant be bothered to draw new ones. Recent figures from .gov show trend continuing though...

 

I do believe the tories are aware of this, of how self employed for a few million people is now essentially 'im unemployed, but in work tax credits pay better than job seekers, so lets call me self employed' and have looked at changing the tax credits system. That would mean acknowledging unemployment is still up at around 10-12%, however. 

 

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6 minutes ago, spygirl said:

The way to classify it correctly.

Is how many people are working with only a DLA sub.

Then look at number of people not actually working, signed off.

And the number of people either public sectpr or getting all their money from UKGOV.

The number of people working in the private sector is seriously tiny.

UK is in big shit and has been since 2004ish.

 

 

 

Given that millions used to leave school at 16 (or earlier) but are now in dead end degree courses (but not counted as unemployed), questionable disability claims started to rise in the 1980s, now transferred to self employed and on taxcredits, I doubt real unemployment ever fell from its 1981 highs. 

Wages did indeed grow in the 80s, 90s and early 00s, but I wonder how much of that was due to a one off being able to fool the world and make the pound artificially strong in that time.

 

That said, I do think the 1990s was going in the right direction. Stable house prices, trade deficit being eliminated. Ironically, I would say that was largely due to politicians hands being tied by the ERM. Rates being held higher than the politicians would have liked probably cleared a lot of crap out of the system. 

 

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17 minutes ago, PatronizingGit said:

 

 

+the self employed/gig economy. 

millions of cake decorators making a grand or so a year being 'employed' and getting several grand in tax credits. 

self-employment-levels.jpg

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Screen-shot-2013-12-02-at-15.22.08.png

http://www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/no-of-self-employmed-workers.jpg

Charts a few years out of date, cant be bothered to draw new ones. Recent figures from .gov show trend continuing though...

 

I do believe the tories are aware of this, of how self employed for a few million people is now essentially 'im unemployed, but in work tax credits pay better than job seekers, so lets call me self employed' and have looked at changing the tax credits system. That would mean acknowledging unemployment is still up at around 10-12%, 20-25% however. 

 

Pick a town, any time.

Walk around 3pm-4pm-ish.

How may working age people do you seeloitering about?

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A hotelier in France was bitterly explaining the way his hotel works (subbed in a similar-ish way to tax credits) the other day. Most lower income people entirely dependent on the government. He had no idea the British economy had gone the same way.

The UK has painted itself into a corner and will eventually have to go Greek or have a major war to get out of this, but given the size of UK banks and debts, I'd have thought the global systems might be threatened.

 

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6 minutes ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

A hotelier in France was bitterly explaining the way his hotel works (subbed in a similar-ish way to tax credits) the other day. Most lower income people entirely dependent on the government. He had no idea the British economy had gone the same way.

The UK has painted itself into a corner and will eventually have to go Greek or have a major war to get out of this, but given the size of UK banks and debts, I'd have thought the global systems might be threatened.

 

Tax credits are a good thing, providing:

1) They dont pay too much. a 5k max topup on NMW.

2) They require the person to work 38h/w.

3) They are not available to non citizens.

UK fails on all those.

 

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22 minutes ago, spygirl said:

The way to classify it correctly.

Is how many people are working with only a DLA sub.

Then look at number of people not actually working, signed off.

And the number of people either public sectpr or getting all their money from UKGOV.

The number of people working in the private sector is seriously tiny.

UK is in big shit and has been since 2004ish.

 

 

 

And how much of the private sector is actually quasi government...ie things that wouldnt exist (or be far fewer) if it wasnt for regulation dictating they must exist...ie equality and diversity co-ordinators, elf and safety enforcers etc etc. 

 

Something like 1/7th of US gdp are non-profits and charitable foundations, many of which serve no public need, but simply lobby for more government monies.

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It is rare for a media outlet to post a historical chart. So I will re-post it here. Hard to believe the stats will all the factories, banks, shops, restaurants, and pubs closing. Then there are all the police, and fire brigade cuts. Perhaps everyone is taking early retirement or moving back with their parents? 

Untitled.png.f3aeded44eb4d6912abfbbd6061b0293.png

Edited by 201p

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7 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Tax credits are a good thing, providing:

1) They dont pay too much. a 5k max topup on NMW.

2) They require the person to work 38h/w.

3) They are not available to non citizens.

UK fails on all those.

 

Agree in principle, in certain jobs were an incentive may be needed, say careworkers.

 

However, for other things, like hospitality, maybe the people eating out should have to bear the entire cost of their habits, rather than have the govt subsidize their supplier.

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33 minutes ago, spygirl said:

The way to classify it correctly.

Is how many people are working with only a DLA sub.

Then look at number of people not actually working, signed off.

And the number of people either public sectpr or getting all their money from UKGOV.

The number of people working in the private sector is seriously tiny.

UK is in big shit and has been since 2004ish.

 

 

 

 

33 minutes ago, spygirl said:

The way to classify it correctly.

Is how many people are working with only a DLA sub.

Then look at number of people not actually working, signed off.

And the number of people either public sectpr or getting all their money from UKGOV.

The number of people working in the private sector is seriously tiny.

UK is in big shit and has been since 2004ish.

 

 

 

Never understand how we have got to a position of nearly balancing the books since the majority of the country are net recipients...public sector, retired, disabled, unemployed, students, children, tax credits, working but with huge NHS costs ( diabetes etc). Just about covers everybody.

I actually don't work and don't fit any category because I am self funded, don't use NHS or have ever  received benefits or further education. Still pay a few grand in tax..a couple of grand council tax (well half with partner) VAT, stamp duty on house moves and share transactions, excise duty on petrol and energy etc. I guess they may eventually get a biggie off me like inheritance tax. It has to come from somewhere and I think best when you are dead.

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2 minutes ago, 201p said:

It is rare for a media outlet to post a historical chart. So I will re-post it here. Hard to believe the stats will all the factories, banks, shops, restaurants, and pubs closing. Then there are all the police, and fire brigade cuts. Perhaps everyone is taking early retirement or moving back with their parents? 

Untitled.png.f3aeded44eb4d6912abfbbd6061b0293.png

Oddly, back in the 1970s there didnt seem to be masses of voices in the govt calling for all and sundry to be let in to fill these 'shortages' 

But then, in the 70s, even accounting for stagflation, wages were allowed to rise. 

 

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2014/10/18/1413655539624/cf494b8f-9602-40e4-970c-53274497be9f-bestSizeAvailable.jpeg

 

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16 minutes ago, ILikeCake said:

I'm so close to joining them, I've really had enough.  I'll happily walk some dogs for a couple of hours a day instead of busting my balls 50+ hrs every week.

Same trends everywhere. Denninger frequently reports on how in the US, if there really is job growth, which he doubts, its all at the McJobs end, with graduate level or higher positions disappearing. 

Real wages falling in US too...

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/real-wages-decline-year-over-year-onNWGkc3FE616TUkyBvBdQ/

Not that you'd know it from the US, where half the pundits think Trump is some kind of economic magician, and the other half have given up on any actual criticism beyond "Trump - what a bastard!"

 

Its the Knowledge economy Brown promised us!

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3 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

From the same article

Screen-Shot-2018-08-13-at-8.02.46-AM-600

Thats rlative falls.

 

Whne you compare absolute nubmers from 20 years ago then you realise how dire it is.

Someone 70+ rtrying to sell their house risks dying first.

 

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1 hour ago, ILikeCake said:

I'm so close to joining them, I've really had enough.  I'll happily walk some dogs for a couple of hours a day instead of busting my balls 50+ hrs every week.

Yeah I'm never going back to a high stress and/or long hours job. If I ever lose this relatively low stress one I have, I'm packing it all in and joining the benefits train in whatever way I can.

Edited by JoeDavola

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22 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Yeah I'm never going back to a high stress and/or long hours job. If I ever lose this relatively low stress one I have, I'm packing it all in and joining the benefits train in whatever way I can.

If you have a bit of a nest egg, you can cope with delays in getting your bennies. Many get caught in the glue trap because they really need their next lot of bennies so end up doing exactly what they have already done. Either nothing or very little. Having rainy day cash means that you can play the system according to their rules. eg. work your socks off for 4 months and 'rest' for 8 months.

Best start planning it now. That way you can hit the ground strolling. :)

 

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