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wherebee

Investing for the collapse?

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So - we are all pretty convinced that the breakdown/collapse/civil disorder is baked in for a couple of countries in the next ten years.  

South Africa

Sweden

UK?

France?

 

What would be the correct strategic position to take financially to profit from this history trend?  Investing in glass repair firms?  Gold (for SA)?  Shorting the Kroner? As clever DOSBODDERS we should surely be able to profit from disaster.  As the world burns, be nice to have some more wonga to spend on beer.

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2 minutes ago, wherebee said:

So - we are all pretty convinced that the breakdown/collapse/civil disorder is baked in for a couple of countries in the next ten years.  

South Africa

Sweden

UK?

France?

 

What would be the correct strategic position to take financially to profit from this history trend?  Investing in glass repair firms?  Gold (for SA)?  Shorting the Kroner? As clever DOSBODDERS we should surely be able to profit from disaster.  As the world burns, be nice to have some more wonga to spend on beer.

I'll sell you beer for £1000 a pint when I've cornered the market.

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You can't profit from disaster.  All you can hope it to make it to the other side.

As an aside, when you look at history it looks as though some profit from disaster -- but, by and large, they're just the 'lucky' ones.  They acted in a certain way and it happened to work out for them.  But it is just luck.  For every person that saved gold and then invested in real-estate, there's dozens of others that saved dollars and then invested in transport, or invested in the military and lost it all, or invested in their education only to find that the 'new world' didn't need historians.  You just can't tell.

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15 minutes ago, dgul said:

You can't profit from disaster.  All you can hope it to make it to the other side.

As an aside, when you look at history it looks as though some profit from disaster -- but, by and large, they're just the 'lucky' ones.  They acted in a certain way and it happened to work out for them.  But it is just luck.  For every person that saved gold and then invested in real-estate, there's dozens of others that saved dollars and then invested in transport, or invested in the military and lost it all, or invested in their education only to find that the 'new world' didn't need historians.  You just can't tell.

Not true.

for example, we can make a pretty safe assumption that tourism in SA will go through the floor over the next ten years.  So, investing in hotels and resorts in SA is a negative investment opportunity.

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32 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

 Baked beans and guns 

got about 50 tins of beans im now up to about 20 tins of beans and sausages i might get bored of just beans you see should the apocalipse arrive.i think i need to get out more

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2 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Not true.

for example, we can make a pretty safe assumption that tourism in SA will go through the floor over the next ten years.  So, investing in hotels and resorts in SA is a negative investment opportunity.

Sure, there are definite 'wrong' things to do, but also numerous potentially 'right' things to do, that might well not work out.

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41 minutes ago, dgul said:

You can't profit from disaster.  All you can hope it to make it to the other side.

As an aside, when you look at history it looks as though some profit from disaster -- but, by and large, they're just the 'lucky' ones.  They acted in a certain way and it happened to work out for them.  But it is just luck.  For every person that saved gold and then invested in real-estate, there's dozens of others that saved dollars and then invested in transport, or invested in the military and lost it all, or invested in their education only to find that the 'new world' didn't need historians.  You just can't tell.

valid points,but the chinese seem happy to invest billions into disasters,ie african countrys which lurch from one cluster fuck to another

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21 minutes ago, dgul said:

You can't profit from disaster.  All you can hope it to make it to the other side.

As an aside, when you look at history it looks as though some profit from disaster -- but, by and large, they're just the 'lucky' ones.  They acted in a certain way and it happened to work out for them.  But it is just luck.  For every person that saved gold and then invested in real-estate, there's dozens of others that saved dollars and then invested in transport, or invested in the military and lost it all, or invested in their education only to find that the 'new world' didn't need historians.  You just can't tell.

Well if it comes to war there`s a good list of war stocks arms manufacturers are always a good bet 

Then you can always short stocks 

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17 minutes ago, wherebee said:

What would be the correct strategic position to take financially to profit from this history trend?  Investing in glass repair firms?  Gold (for SA)?  Shorting the Kroner? As clever DOSBODDERS we should surely be able to profit from disaster.  As the world burns, be nice to have some more wonga to spend on beer.

This is the question, isn't it.

I totted up my savings last night and they totaled just over 180K, which can make a big difference if the right thing is done with it.

Was watching some videos that suggest that the stock market is over-valued, and that the smart money is sitting in cash waiting for the crash.

In terms of property, beyond the ridiculous prices you also have to take into account how 'enriched' an area might become over the next 20 years. Inner cities are fucked, especially anywhere in an inner city with dense housing i.e. terraced houses.

Buying a slightly more remote place with a bit of land to grow food might be the ultimate tin foil hat solution, and less likely that such an area becomes a slum compared to a row of terraced houses in a city somewhere.

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15 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

This is the question, isn't it.

I totted up my savings last night and they totaled just over 180K, which can make a big difference if the right thing is done with it.

Was watching some videos that suggest that the stock market is over-valued, and that the smart money is sitting in cash waiting for the crash.

In terms of property, beyond the ridiculous prices you also have to take into account how 'enriched' an area might become over the next 20 years. Inner cities are fucked, especially anywhere in an inner city with dense housing i.e. terraced houses.

Buying a slightly more remote place with a bit of land to grow food might be the ultimate tin foil hat solution, and less likely that such an area becomes a slum compared to a row of terraced houses in a city somewhere.

yes -- that's the 'survival' solution.

But who knows.  Deflation, inflation, stagflation, government controls, etc, etc.  If you get 'war' then your place in the country might not work out.  

I suppose one thing that is quite effective is investing in your career (or alternative career) such that the people with money can't do without you.  If you can keep your head above water during the downs then you've got a head start when it all clears.

 

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Just now, dgul said:

I suppose one thing that is quite effective is investing in your career (or alternative career) such that the people with money can't do without you.  If you can keep your head above water during the downs then you've got a head start when it all clears.

Yes - one reason I'm staying in this job is that it's as recession-proof as a job can be. I think this is smarter than leaving for another job during the boom for an extra 5K which then ceases to exist in a few years time.

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25 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

This is the question, isn't it.

I totted up my savings last night and they totaled just over 180K, which can make a big difference if the right thing is done with it.

Was watching some videos that suggest that the stock market is over-valued, and that the smart money is sitting in cash waiting for the crash.

In terms of property, beyond the ridiculous prices you also have to take into account how 'enriched' an area might become over the next 20 years. Inner cities are fucked, especially anywhere in an inner city with dense housing i.e. terraced houses.

Buying a slightly more remote place with a bit of land to grow food might be the ultimate tin foil hat solution, and less likely that such an area becomes a slum compared to a row of terraced houses in a city somewhere.

I had about 250k in savings a few years ago, and decided to buy (for cash) a small house in a non-enriched rural area, and to keep the rest part in cash and part in shares and moneylending. For mainly geographic reasons, the village I live in is unlikely to grow or become enriched (although there is something of a problem with native British chavs, like many unpoliced rural towns) but if it does get worse I will rent the place out and leave. 

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4 minutes ago, Austin Allegro said:

I had about 250k in savings a few years ago, and decided to buy (for cash) a small house in a non-enriched rural area, and to keep the rest part in cash and part in shares and moneylending. For mainly geographic reasons, the village I live in is unlikely to grow or become enriched (although there is something of a problem with native British chavs, like many unpoliced rural towns) but if it does get worse I will rent the place out and leave. 

Yeah I think somewhere slightly rural which could well be cheaper than a big city, will turn out to be a better buy in a couple of decades.

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17 minutes ago, dgul said:

yes -- that's the 'survival' solution.

But who knows.  Deflation, inflation, stagflation, government controls, etc, etc.  If you get 'war' then your place in the country might not work out.  

I suppose one thing that is quite effective is investing in your career (or alternative career) such that the people with money can't do without you.  If you can keep your head above water during the downs then you've got a head start when it all clears.

 

Good points.  I'd also advise investing in your own health.

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49 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

This is the question, isn't it.

I totted up my savings last night and they totaled just over 180K, which can make a big difference if the right thing is done with it.

Was watching some videos that suggest that the stock market is over-valued, and that the smart money is sitting in cash waiting for the crash.

In terms of property, beyond the ridiculous prices you also have to take into account how 'enriched' an area might become over the next 20 years. Inner cities are fucked, especially anywhere in an inner city with dense housing i.e. terraced houses.

Buying a slightly more remote place with a bit of land to grow food might be the ultimate tin foil hat solution, and less likely that such an area becomes a slum compared to a row of terraced houses in a city somewhere.

I'm in that process now, very rural not loads of land but more than enough to grow plenty to eat (just under an acre). Not from a tin foil hat perspective but I think I can live on almost nothing financially if done right. 

Edited by gilf

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10 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Yeah I think somewhere slightly rural which could well be cheaper than a big city, will turn out to be a better buy in a couple of decades.

There's something to be said for old fashioned, unenriched fairly remote places. People are a bit more friendly and help each other out, partly just because we all live nearby Eg, I live alone and when I got quite ill earlier this year, a neighbour heard I was ill and asked if he and his wife could help with anything. Also had offers of help from the neighbour when I was building a shed. I think if/when TSHTF I could depend on people around me a bit more than in a big city (I also know farmers etc with access to firearms).  We do have a slight chav problem in the town, but they're all so well known and related to everybody else that when they kick off, the local bobby (who has to look after about 20 similar towns and villages) knows who they are and where they live. 

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9 minutes ago, gilf said:

I'm in that process now, very rural not loads of land but more than enough to grow plenty to eat (just under an acre). Not from a tin foil hat perspective but I think I can live on almost nothing financially if done right. 

Yes - if I could grow sweet potatoes that would be a major staple of my diet covered, and a variety of other veg would be nice too in smaller amounts.

With a mortgage paid off I could go full 'Good Life' and live on fuck all if I wanted to.

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1 hour ago, wherebee said:

Not true.

for example, we can make a pretty safe assumption that tourism in SA will go through the floor over the next ten years.  So, investing in hotels and resorts in SA is a negative investment opportunity.

Can one short the tourism industry then? Either through a SA fund or specific companies. I'm surprised that they even had a tourism industry left, but I assume big game hunting and safaris are the main reason.

Edited by Admiral Pepe

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1 hour ago, gilf said:

I'm in that process now, very rural not loads of land but more than enough to grow plenty to eat (just under an acre). Not from a tin foil hat perspective but I think I can live on almost nothing financially if done right. 

I do quite fancy a smallholding on packing in work.  Half a dozen acres or so.  Start small with some beans and an orchard.

1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

Yes - if I could grow sweet potatoes that would be a major staple of my diet covered, and a variety of other veg would be nice too in smaller amounts.

With a mortgage paid off I could go full 'Good Life' and live on fuck all if I wanted to.

You can't grow sweet potatoes in this country AFAIK, hot countries only.  The normal potato is pretty under rated as a decent sized baked potato with a crunchy skin and floury flesh is superb IMO.

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2 hours ago, wherebee said:

So - we are all pretty convinced that the breakdown/collapse/civil disorder is baked in for a couple of countries in the next ten years.  

South Africa

Sweden

UK?

France?

 

What would be the correct strategic position to take financially to profit from this history trend?  Investing in glass repair firms?  Gold (for SA)?  Shorting the Kroner? As clever DOSBODDERS we should surely be able to profit from disaster.  As the world burns, be nice to have some more wonga to spend on beer.

If you genuinely think everything is going to collapse horrendously then buy and hide physical gold because its value will massively increase relative to everything else.

When things return to some kind of normality then you will be rich.

If however you don't see total collapse but rather a long period of problems then by all means buy gold as an insurance but invest mainly in defensive stocks (brewers are the classics, maybe food producers as well) and anything inflation proof - maybe index linked gilts though the time to buy them is not now.

As others have said a nice small house in a nice area is always a good investment for your own health and happiness if you can comfortably afford it.

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41 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

So its only a protection against a local currency crash. Would your hypothesis still apply if the global system melted down?

I would think so. 2008 was it, and it was global, but saved by money printing and lowering interest rates. By purchasing bank shares, and purchasing the bad assets, the governments back stopped the bank runs. By looking at history, you can be reasonably prepared at all times.

The other major crashes of note are 1987 and 1929. Cash and Gold, and some hard assets were short term winners.

One must look at counter party risk. Being right, but also being able to access your account are two entirely different things.

Edited by 201p

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One must define "collapse". In my mind, it is local unemployment, difficulty in getting basic items for a reasonable price and time, high crime, and no opportunities. Is this happening locally in your area? I won't throw in house prices, because at that point, that would be the least of your worries.

---

Some areas of the UK have already collapsed, especially some rural areas. This can a blue print for the worst case scenario.

I was reading an Express story yesterday, it was about how bank closures were creating ghost towns:

UK Banks in line of fire over high street crisis – Closures turning centres into ghost towns

THE death of the high street is being speeded up by the growing tide of bank closures, new research reveals. The loss of more than 2,500 banks across Britain since 2015 has turned once bustling shopping streets into ghost towns because potential customers have less reason to visit them.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1002499/bank-closures-high-street-crisis

This is a collapse on a local scale.

---

What would you do if your local shops closed? And you had to travel 5 miles to the nearest town for -

Cash, Fuel, Food, Supplies, Medicines?

Do you rely on a minimal bus service? Do you have a car?

Do you own a small business in a rural market town? How are you preparing for this?

---

Crime in Rural areas is up by 50% on last year

http://www.salisburyjournal.co.uk/news/16411645.alarming-rise-in-rural-crime-in-hampshire/

Edited by 201p

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