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longtomsilver

Daimler AG

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Posted (edited)

I am a value trader by nature and that's led me to a few good stocks with the most recent being eSure (sold last week). Hunting for the next value share has had me looking outside the FTSE and Daimler AG (DAX) is now on my radar. Chinese tariffs/dieselgate/fx  aside it seems oversold and having sold eSure there's enough bunce for 600 shares. 

The main portfolio value now stands at £173k having started with £49k 5.5 years ago with no further contributions. I'm either very, very good at this trading malarkey or *incredibly lucky. 

*therefore a balanced view from others would be most appreciated. 

Edited by longtomsilver

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Well I guess the question is do you think/know you have an edge? How has your portfolio performed included fees compared to investing, say in a low cost all world index tracker? Have you run calculations/models to see how your trading/portfolio would do in a downturn or over a longer periods?

With that said congrats on the portfolio value! I'm just starting my investing journey, wish I had started a decade ago now I understand the powers of compounding!

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Admiral Pepe said:

Well I guess the question is do you think/know you have an edge? How has your portfolio performed included fees compared to investing, say in a low cost all world index tracker? Have you run calculations/models to see how your trading/portfolio would do in a downturn or over a longer periods?

With that said congrats on the portfolio value! I'm just starting my investing journey, wish I had started a decade ago now I understand the powers of compounding!

Eighth wonder of the world.

It hasn't entered my mind to run calculations, initially I intended to make additional contributions to cover any fall below the original £49k invested, fortunately i've never been in a position to do so. The lowest it reached was £42k so I upped my game and changed my strategy.

In a downturn I'll assume 2/3rds of my portfolio value is retained and compounding would in theory take me back to 85% within five years (5, 10 and 20 year time frames).

I bought by the way.... 

 

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Edited by longtomsilver

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Two slight issues for me with that trade personally is the added currency risk and the proportion of your portfolio at nearly 17%, seems pretty risky. But I'm coming from the Lars Kroijer school of thinking.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Admiral Pepe said:

Two slight issues for me with that trade personally is the added currency risk and the proportion of your portfolio at nearly 17%, seems pretty risky. But I'm coming from the Lars Kroijer school of thinking.

It's in one of several pots and the overall weighting is <15% and as a whole our portfolio is bringing £10k per annum in dividends so that'll drop below 10% over a relatively short space of time. You're right though the fx/currency risk is of concern but I'm not one to hold fiat medium/long term. The rest of my portfolio is diversified. My largest holding is GSK (2,500 shares) other than these two I have 15 stocks with £5-8k in each. 

Edited by longtomsilver

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, longtomsilver said:

It's in one of several pots and the overall weighting is <15% and as a whole our portfolio is bringing £10k per annum in dividends so that'll drop below 10% over a relatively short space of time. You're right though the fx/currency risk is of concern but I'm not one to hold fiat medium/long term. The rest of my portfolio is diversified. My largest holding is GSK (2,500 shares) other than these two I have 15 stocks with £5-8k in each. 

Certainly wasn't knocking the trade btw, just more of an expression from where I am at the moment. I only hold 14 individual shares and a small holding in comparision to my overall index investing. My intention is eventually to have a sizeable HYP but will take time, as these things do, especially as I'm drip feeding in using regular investing to keep trading cost as low as I can.

Edited by Admiral Pepe

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17 hours ago, longtomsilver said:

I am a value trader by nature and that's led me to a few good stocks with the most recent being eSure (sold last week). Hunting for the next value share has had me looking outside the FTSE and Daimler AG (DAX) is now on my radar. Chinese tariffs/dieselgate/fx  aside it seems oversold and having sold eSure there's enough bunce for 600 shares. 

The main portfolio value now stands at £173k having started with £49k 5.5 years ago with no further contributions. I'm either very, very good at this trading malarkey or *incredibly lucky. 

*therefore a balanced view from others would be most appreciated. 

 

We're in a bull market. As they say, while the music is playing, we should be getting up and dancing.

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4 hours ago, longtomsilver said:

It's in one of several pots and the overall weighting is <15% and as a whole our portfolio is bringing £10k per annum in dividends so that'll drop below 10% over a relatively short space of time. You're right though the fx/currency risk is of concern but I'm not one to hold fiat medium/long term. The rest of my portfolio is diversified. My largest holding is GSK (2,500 shares) other than these two I have 15 stocks with £5-8k in each. 

Go large or go home...

I have been running the rule over Valeo, the 12 month chart looks very similar to Daimler's. I think that car manufacturers will get whacked badly in any down-turn - companies are pushing out their leases from 2-3 years to 3-4 and private debt junkies won't be surfing the PCP wave for much longer. Component makers, like Valeo, are better insulated, as they supply parts for both the new and used car markets. I don't like the FX risk at present, as I see the Euro as short-term over-valued and long-term fucked, though there will come a point when the price is just too tempting, perhaps.

Well done on the growth of your portfolio though!

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PS Tom, I think you went into Yellow Cake at the outset? I planned to, but prevaricated and missed the boat; up over 20% in a short time - maybe you do have the touch?!

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I have recently invested an amount into Honda. I had two reasons: 

  1. They have a promising robotics division that has been active since the 80s - lots of institutional knowledge
  2. They are close to the Japanese government. Too big to fail.

They also have a low PE of ~5.5 and a ~3% dividend at the moment as a sweetener. They also make some cars too!

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Yep I too considered Daimler recently. The reclaiming of foreign dividend tax was a big put off for me. Probably missing out on a decent capital gain, keeping things neat and tidy in  sterling probably standing in the way of profit.

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2 hours ago, crashmonitor said:

Yep I too considered Daimler recently. The reclaiming of foreign dividend tax was a big put off for me. Probably missing out on a decent capital gain, keeping things neat and tidy in  sterling probably standing in the way of profit.

I used to have to sort the reclaims as part of my job as a tax specialist many moons ago. As I understand things now so long as there's a tax treaty in place then it's carried out automatically by your broker if held in a SIPP? I hold Vodafone share as well and the dividend came to me gross.

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8 hours ago, longtomsilver said:

I used to have to sort the reclaims as part of my job as a tax specialist many moons ago. As I understand things now so long as there's a tax treaty in place then it's carried out automatically by your broker if held in a SIPP? I hold Vodafone share as well and the dividend came to me gross.

Vodafone is a British company. 

I used to hold Hostelworld (an Irish company) and I think I had to pay ~20% as a withholding tax. Despite the fact that there should be no tax to pay if you’re a EU citizen. Best of luck.

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10 hours ago, longtomsilver said:

I used to have to sort the reclaims as part of my job as a tax specialist many moons ago. As I understand things now so long as there's a tax treaty in place then it's carried out automatically by your broker if held in a SIPP? I hold Vodafone share as well and the dividend came to me gross.

I think you are right. I only do ISAs, and I had already done my 20k allowance by the time Daimler had fallen because of the Trump trade wars. Please keep us posted when the dividend hits.

Sign of a disciplined trader when you are being hit for 11.95 Hargreaves commission. When they reward you with the 8.95 you know you have probably messed up and are trading out of bad positions.

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10 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Vodafone is a British company. 

I used to hold Hostelworld (an Irish company) and I think I had to pay ~20% as a withholding tax. Despite the fact that there should be no tax to pay if you’re a EU citizen. Best of luck.

I'll see how this unfolds. Vodafone is indeed a British company however the dividends are paid in Euro's and I haven't looked to see where this income was coming from. 

9 hours ago, crashmonitor said:

I think you are right. I only do ISAs, and I had already done my 20k allowance by the time Daimler had fallen because of the Trump trade wars. Please keep us posted when the dividend hits.

Sign of a disciplined trader when you are being hit for 11.95 Hargreaves commission. When they reward you with the 8.95 you know you have probably messed up and are trading out of bad positions.

It hasn't always been this way, first two years I regularly made the £8.95 frequent trader dealing charge 'hall of fame' messing up and trading out of bad positions with only the house winning. Historically HL have made £10-12k from me and the less I trade and longer I hold means they only get 0.11% of the portfolio value per annum. That's a cheap platform :) 

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